The document discusses the impacts of climate change on fruit production of the Rosaceae family. It begins with introducing climate change and its causes. It then examines how various climatic factors like temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind and frost affect fruit production. Increased temperatures can inhibit growth and development or promote pest and disease incidence. Insufficient chilling can impact flowering and yield. The document also summarizes some research papers. One paper finds temperature and rainfall trends are negatively impacting apple production and diversity in India. Another analyzes fruit set and yield of apricot cultivars under subtropical conditions in Turkey.

2. “Farming looks mighty easy when your plough is a pencil, and you're a thousand
miles from the field”
Dwight D. Eisenhower

3. Ch. Allaylay Devi
UHS14PGM426
Dept. of FSC

4. Seminar outline
- Introduction
- Climate change
- Effect of climate change
- Impacts of climate Change on
important fruits of Rosaceae family
- Adaptation and mitigation
- Conclusion

5. Introduction
• The Earth’s climate, although relatively stable for the past 10,000
years or so, has always been changing, mainly due to natural causes
such as volcanic activity.
• But since the 1900s more rapid changes have taken place and these
are thought to be mainly man-made.
• Global warming mean temperatures increased by 0.74 0C during
last 100 years and by the year 2100 best estimates predict between
a 1.8 0C and 4 0C rise in average global temperature, although it
could possibly be as high as 6.4 0C.
IPCC, 2007

6. Climate can be contrasted to weather, which
is the present condition of these same
elements over periods up to two weeks.
 It includes the statistics of :
a. Temperature
b. Humidity
c. Atmospheric pressure
d. Wind
e. Rainfall
f. Atmospheric particle count and
g. Numerous other meteorological elements in a
given region over a long periods of time.
Climate

7.  Climate change refers to the variation in the Earth's global
climate or in regional climates over time.
 UNFCCC defines climate change as “a change of climate
which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that
alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in
addition to natural climate variability observed over
comparable time periods.”
What do you mean by climate change ?

8. The Greenhouse Effect
Green house gases:
 CO2 , methane, CO, CFC, Nitrous oxide etc. These atmospheric
constituents will not absorb the incoming short waves but these will
absorb the outgoing long waves reflected from the earth surface
thereby warming the earth.
 There are 2 sources of the Greenhouse Effect :
a) The Natural Greenhouse Effect
b) The Enhanced Greenhouse Effect

9. Natural Greenhouse Effect
 Without it, Earth would have no living things and would be more like
Venus or Mars. This is because the temperature would be on average 300C
colder than it is. This is how it works with CO2, the major component. This
effect is supporting existence of life in earth
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
 Due to increase in concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere, much more of
the heat energy from the sun is trapped in the earth’s atmosphere, making it
hotter. This effect is mainly due to anthropogenic activities

10. Causes of climate change
Natural Causes Anthropogenic Causes
1) Continental drift
2) Volcanoes
3) The Earth’s Tilts
4) Ocean Currents
5) Intensity of Solar
Radiation
1) Green Houses Gases
• Carbon dioxide (CO2)
• Methane (CH4)
• Nitrous oxide (NO2)
• Chloro floro carbons (CFCs)
• Ozone (O3)
• Water Vapors (H2O)
2) Land Use Change
• Deforestation
• Urbanization

11. Melting glaciers
polar caps
Decreased
reflective surface
Rising sea level
Flooding of costal
regions
Deforestation
Fossil fuel
combustion
CO2
Aerosol
propellants CFC-11
Refrigerants CFC-12
Warm
oceans
Decreased CO2
solubility in water
Garbage
Swampy
rice fields
Cattle
CH4
N2O
Biomass
Burning-
fertilizer
O3
Photochemical
reaction
Climate
change
Elements involved in Climate change

12. WHY CLIMATE CHANGE A CONCERN ?
 Rise in global average surface temperature of 1.0 to 3.5 degrees
Celsius by 2100.
 Sea levels to rise 7-23 inches by the year 2100.
 Carbon dioxide expected to be 100% higher in 2100.
 Annual river run off and water availability will increase at high
latitudes and decrease in some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the
tropics.
 Changes in rainfall and the disappearance of glaciers.
 The ability of ecosystems to naturally adapt to changes in climate is
likely to be severely reduced.
IPCC, 2007

13. Climatic variables affecting fruit production
• Temperature
• Soil temperature and moisture
• Rainfall
• Light
• Wind
• Relative Humidity
• Hail
• Frost

14. Effect of temperature
High Temperature:
• At critical high temperature, granules appear in the cytoplasm, viscosity
increases and the cell membrane loses its permeability & coagulation of the
entire cell contents takes place.
• High summer temperatures aggravates incidence of various pests and
diseases.
Low Temperature:
• It would appear that O2 absorption proceeds at a much more rapid rate than O2
elimination, which may result in the accumulation of toxic substances in the
plant cells.
• Flower bud initiation is inhibited in many plants by high and in the others by
low-growing season temperature

15. Effect of soil temperature
Soil temperature exercises a considerable influence on growth and
development of the plant. Besides influencing the water uptake and nutrient
absorption, the soil temperature also affects the root development, cessation of
growth and induction of dormancy.
Effect of soil moisture
• In general, fruits production is normally limited by the available soil
moisture and many fruit trees, some fruit trees require a dry period to
stop vegetative growth and induce flowering (Nakasone and Paull,
1998).
• Soil moisture determines the flowering time and germination of plants
(Dreyer et al., 2006).

16. Effect of rainfall
• In general, heavy rains, even for a short duration, are more damaging than
drizzling.
• Similarly, rains accompanied by low temperature and wind, are more
damaging than the rain alone.
• Pre-monsoon showers destroy the complete crops of fruits like grapes and
dates.
Effect of relative humidity
• Extremely low or high humidity may affect yield through poor fruit set and
excessive drop of the fruits in oranges, mandarins & most of the subtropical
and temperate fruit crops.
• Low and high humidity affects fruit set as it may cause poor pollen
germination owing to drying or desiccation of stigmatic fluid.

17. Effect of wind
• A reasonable amount of wind at the time of flowering aids in securing better
fruit set.
• Orchards located deep in the valley, which are less exposed to wind, have
better fruit set than those located in the exposed place on the windward side.
• Very high wind speeds are detrimental to fruit crops.
Effect of hails
• Very harmful if it occurs at any time between flowering and fruit development
stage.
• In temperate fruit orchards, hail destroys all the flower buds and injures almost
all the developing fruits.
• On fruits, there is development of ugly spots.

18. Effect of light
• Light is the electromagnetic radiation within a certain portion of the
electromagnetic spectrum
• It influence on flowering, growth and yield of plants especially the
red and blue light
• The distribution of radiation in plant canopy is determined by several
factors such as transmissibility of the leaf, leaf arrangement and
inclination, plant density, plant height and angle of the sun
• Depending upon the photoperiod plants has divided into three:
SDP, LDP and DNP

19. • Frost - causing a regular /irregular damage.
• Spring frosts are particularly harmful to the plants in temperate
climate. Frost may either kill the sexual organs of a flower or
completely destroy the blossoms thereby influencing the fruit-set.
• Frost cause damage to the plant parts near the ground level since it
is the coldest place
• Bark of the young trees is killed and cracked open and the inner-sap
carrying tissues are ruptured through freezing.
Effect of frost

21. Impact of increased temperature
• Increased temperature may inhibit or promote general growth and
development such as abnormality in leaf development and
underdevelopment of reproductive organs
• Insufficient chilling leading to changes in flowering phenology
such as delay in flower bud bursting, early flowering, flower
drop, poor fruit set, changes in quality, and increased incidence of
pest and diseases
• Shift in the cropping pattern and suitability areas.

22. Indian J. Hort. 72(1), March 2015: 14-20 DOI : 10.5958/0974-0112.2015.00003.1
Impact of climate variability on apple production
and diversity in Kullu valley, Himachal Pradesh
Vijayshri Sen, Ranbbir S, Rana , R.C. Chauhan and Aditya
Biology and Environmental Science, College of Basic Sciences, CSKHPKV Palampur
176 072, Himachal Pradesh
Aim: To assess the impact of climatic
factors on the productivity and
biodiversity of apple in Kullu
valley area

23. Figure : Trends of maximum
temperature in Kullu valley
Figure : Trends of minimum
temperature in Kullu valley
Figure : Seasonal variations in
temperature in Kullu valley

24. Fig : Annual climatic trends in
Kullu valley
Fig : Rainfall trends in Kullu valley

25. Figure : November, December and
January month rainfall trends
in Kullu valley

26. Fig : Cumulative chill units trends at
Kullu with Negative Chill
unit UTAH model
Fig : Productivity trends of apple
crop in Kullu valley

27. Month Max. Temp. Min. temp. Rainfall
Average/
total
Y= ̵ 3.897x ̵ 0.002 Y= ̵ 0.069x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.689x ̵ 0.002
January Y= ̵ 0.224x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.103x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.006x ̵ 0.002
February Y= ̵ 0.279x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.437x ̵ 0.001 Y= 0.184x ̵ 0.002
March Y= ̵ 0.751x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.073x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.063x ̵ 0.002
October Y= ̵ 1.213x ̵ 0.002 Y= ̵ 0.377x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.016x ̵ 0.002
November Y= 0.142x ̵ 0.002 Y= ̵ 0.354x ̵ 0.001 Y= ̵̵ 0.044x ̵ 0.002
December Y= ̵ 0.502x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.038x ̵ 0.002 Y= 0.112x ̵ 0.002
Table : Sensitivity analysis of apple crop with climatic parameters.

28. SI. No Particulars Percent response
1. Change in snowfall pattern 100
2. Decrease in area under apple crop 90
3. Change in apple traditional
varieties
100
4. Increase in number of apple low
chilli varieties
100
5. Alternative source of income 83
6. Decrease in apple production 100
7. Shifting of orchard to higher
altitude
27
8. Stopped planting of apple crop 43
9. Change in choice of crop 63
10. Strategic measure adopted 77
Table : Farmer’s perception of apple biodiversity shift.

29. J. Agr. Sci. Tech. (2014) Vol. 16 : 863-872
Fruit set and yield of Apricot Cultivars under
Subtropical Climate Conditions of Hatay, Turkey
A.A. Polat, and O. Caliskan
Department of Horticulture, Faculty of Agriculture, Mustafa Kemal University,
Antakya/Hatay, Turkey .
*corresponding author; E-mail: apolar @ mku.edu.tr
Aim: To evaluate the percentages of
blossom, initial and final fruit set
and yield parameters of Apricot
cultivars for cultivation under
subtropical climate condiitions

30. Month Temperature (⁰C) Rainfall
(mm)
Humidity
(%)
Min. Max. Avg.
2006
Jan. -0.5 20.6 11.5 22.0 56.3
Feb. 0.2 22.2 11.7 175.7 55.7
Mar. 8.7 28.7 16.3 76.2 57.8
Apr. 10.1 34.8 18.6 101.9 55.2
May. 10.8 34.2 21.1 98.0 50.7
June. 16.0 36.9 25.7 7.8 49.6
July. 20.5 33.5 28.0 4.9 62.1
Aug. 22.8 35.0 28.7 24.7 60.8
Sep. 19.0 35.0 26.0 140.8 59.7
Oct. 10.2 36.5 21.5 58.4 51.3
Nov. 0.6 27.7 14.3 88.8 48.5
Dec. -0.8 19.9 11.3 197.5 68.0
Table : Means of temperature, rainfall, humidity in the experimental area, Dortyol
(Hatay), Turkey.

31. Month Temperature (⁰C) Rainfall
(mm)
Humidity
(%)Min. Max. Avg.
2007
Jan. -0.3 19.5 8.8 165.3 49.2
Feb. 3.0 23.2 13.3 65.9 42.8
Mar. 5.5 26.4 14.8 78.4 52.1
Apr. 9.0 25.1 16.7 155.3 67.9
May. 12.7 35.3 20.8 74.1 57.1
June. 15.7 39.4 25.5 24.5 52.9
July. 20.8 37.0 28.0 80.8 58.0
Aug. 20.2 34.9 27.7 52.5 57.3
Sep. 17.7 36.2 25.2 79.6 55.7
Oct. 10.5 34.6 21.8 93.4 47.7
Nov. 8.3 28.5 17.2 102.4 45.4
Dec. -2.2 23.3 9.3 64.2 55.4
Cont.

32. Month Temperature (⁰C) Rainfall
(mm)
Humidity
(%)Min. Max. Avg.
2008
Jan. 2.8 21.3 12.0 83.9 59.0
Feb. 0.3 20.1 9.0 166.1 58.7
Mar. 2.7 23.2 11.9 148.4 51.0
Apr. 8.4 31.0 16.9 112.2 55.2
May. 12 37.5 23.8 84.6 43.1
June. 15 36.6 25.3 55.1 61.8
July. 21.8 37.0 28.4 11.0 62.0
Aug. 21.6 36.3 29.2 0.1 58.4
Sep. 14.5 35.9 25.3 118.8 56.9
Oct. 5.7 31.4 21.7 94.6 58.2
Nov. 3.8 29.4 15.2 80.8 49.6
Dec. 0.7 21.4 11.3 130.5 54.9
Cont.

33. Cultivar Year Mean
2006 2007 2008
Blossoming (%)
Precoce de tyrinthe 50.6cd 91.5ab 89.0bc 77.0cd
Feriana 84.7ab 91.2ab 89.0bc 88.3abc
Beliana 81.8ab 90.7abc 89.9abc 87.5abc
Priana 57.4c 90.5abc 90.7abc 79.7bcd
Bebeco 73.0b 95.0a 86.7c 84.9abcd
Early kishinewski 42.3d 86.1bc 91.5abc 73.3d
Precoce de colomer 89.3a 92.2a 94.4ab 93.0a
Canino 82.9ab 90.9ab 92.2abc 88.7abc
Silistre Rona 89.8a 82.0c 95.3ab 89.0abc
Rouge de sernhac 81.7ab 90.5abc 96.6a 89.6ab
Tokaloglu 77.5ab 94.8ab 92.3abc 88.3abc
Mean 73.8 Bb 90.8 A 91.6 A
Table : Percentage blossoming of apricot cv. grown in the Mediterranean climate
in Turkey
*Means within a column followed by different lowercase letter are significantly at the 1% by Tukey
tect, Different capital letters indicate significant differences (P<0.05) between years

34. Cultivar Year Mean
2006 2007 2008
Fruit set (%)
Precoce de tyrinthe 6.9a 9.0b 8.7ab 8.2ab
Feriana 3.0a 5.7b 5.7b 4.8ab
Beliana 6.2a 8.8b 11.3ab 8.8ab
Priana 6.8a 5.0b 9.1ab 7.0ab
Bebeco 0.0b 4.6b 4.3ab 3.0ab
Early kishinewski 0.0b 3.2b 3.7b 2.3b
Precoce de colomer 1.0ab 3.8b 4.0b 2.9ab
Canino 0.0b 3.8b 3.2b 2.3b
Silistre Rona 0.9ab 3.2b 3.9b 2.6ab
Rouge de sernhac 1.7b 8.0b 7.1ab 5.6ab
Tokaloglu 2.7a 20.7a 18.8a 14.0 a
Mean 2.6 B 7.5 B 10.4 A
*Means within a column followed by different lowercase letter are significantly at the 1% by Tukey tect,
Different capital letters indicate significant differences (P<0.05) between years
Table : Percentage fruit set of apricot cv. grown in the Mediterranean climate in
Turkey

35. Cultivar Year Mean
2006 2007 2008
Yield per tree ( kg/ tree)
Precoce de tyrinthe 4.3ab 47.7a 34.9cd 29a
Feriana 4.5ab 8.4cd 19.0de 10.6cd
Beliana 2.8bc 30.3b 36.0bc 23.0ab
Priana 1.7cd 0.6d 17.5D 6.6cd
Bebeco 0.4d 26.7b 15.6e 14.2bc
Early kishinewski 0.0d 9.5cd 5.5e 5.0cd
Precoce de colomer 1.8cd 3.2d 16.3e 7.1cd
Canino 0.3d 1.1d 15.0e 5.5cd
Silistre Rona 0.5d 1.2d 5.0e 2.3d
Rouge de sernhac 0.3d 20.0bc 63.5a 27.9a
Tokaloglu 5.0 a 30.8b 51.5ab 29.1a
Mean 2.0 C 16.3 B 25.4 A
*Means within a column followed by different lowercase letter are significantly at the 1% by Tukey tect,
Different capital letters indicate significant differences (P<0.05) between years
Table : Yield per tree of apricot cv. grown in the Mediterranean climate in Turkey

36. Impact of increase carbon dioxide
concentration in fruit crops
 Among the various greenhouse gases, CO2 has important role in
fruit production.
 Increased CO2 concentration in the atmosphere has a fertilizer
effect on fruits, which can lead to increased rate of
photosynthesis, increase in growth rate and productivity of
plants,
 It reduced transpiration and increased water use efficiency.

37. Effect of CO2 Enrichment on Fruit Growth and
Quality in Japanese Pear (Pyrus serotina Reheder cv.
Kosui)
Junki Ito, Shigeki Hasegawa, Kounosuke Fujita* , Shizuhiko Ogasawara
and Tamio Fujiwara
Hiroshima Prefectural Agricultural Centre, Higashi-Hiroshima, 739-0151- Japan
Published online: 04 January 2012
Soil Science and Plant Nutrition
Aim: The effect of CO2 enrichment at
different growth stages of fruit on
vegetative growth, fruit growth
and quality in Japanese pear tree

38. Days after full bloom
Fruitdiameter
Figure : Effect of CO2 enrichment during the fruits growth stages on fruit
diameter and stem diameter in Japanese pear cv. Kosui, Full bloom
occurred on March 27. Arrow indicates the time when CO2 enrichment
was initiated (52 DAB)
CO2 enrichment CO2 Control
Days after full bloom

39. Days after full bloom
Totalsugarconcentration
Figure : Effect of CO2 enrichment during maturation on total
fruit sugar conc. in Japanese pear cv. Kosui
CO2 enrichment
CO2 Control

40. DAB* CO2 enrichment Control
Sorbitol Glucose Fructose Sucrose Sorbitol Glucose Fructose Sucrose
88 46.9 16.6 36.5 0 47.6 14.4 38.0 0
101 35.2 15.5 41.0 8.3 47.4 16.2 36.4 0
108 36.1 15.8 39.6 8.5 34.7 15.1 42.9 7.3
123 22.0 14.9 35.8 27.3 21.0 14.4 38.9 25.7
*Days after full bloom, LSD (0.05) for all the values was 7.12
Table : Effect of C02 enrichment on the composition of various sugar species in
fruit of Japanese pear cv. Kosui during fruit maturation

41. Impacts on phenology
• One of the best-documented effects of climate change is the changing timing of
activity, known as phenology (Cleland et al., 2007).
• Flowering is one of crucial stages for fruit development affecting the
production and productivity.
• In most fruit crops, generally higher temperature decreased the days interval
required for flowering.
• Temperature not only influences the development of various parts of flowers
but also determines the type of inflorescence.
• Rainfall during flowering adversely affects fruit set, fruit development and
yield.

42. The Asian Journal of Horticulture volume 8 | Issue 1 | June, 2013 | 88-92
Effect of climate on vegetative, flowering and fruiting
behaviour of hard pear (Pyrus pyrifolia) under
Amritsar conditions
B.S. Dhillon and B.S. Gill
Received : 22.09.2012
Revised: 09.03.2013
Accepted : 25.03.2013
Department of Horticulture, Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Gurdaspur (Punjab) India
Aim: To evaluate the growth and fruiting
pattern of some farmer’s orchards
in Amritsar district

43. Months Week Dates Air temperature ⁰C (2008-09) Air temperature ⁰C (2009-10)
Max. Min. Mean Max Min Mean
Nov I 1-7 25.89 15.03 20.46 27.57 16.00 21.78
Ii 8-14 28.53 13.61 21.07 24.71 13.42 19.02
Iii 15-21 26.69 9.27 17.98 24.34 12.11 18.22
Iv 22-28 25.43 9.86 17.65 22.57 10.14 16.35
V 29-05 25.14 11.71 18.43 22.57 9.28 15.92
Vi 6-12 23.86 10.71 17.29 20.42 8.14 14.28
Dec Vii 13-19 22.43 8.14 15.29 20.28 7.14 13.71
Viii 20-26 21.14 7.14 14.14 19.28 5.71 12.49
Ix 27-02 18.57 1.61 10.09 17.00 0.54 8.77
X 3-09 17.74 2.63 10.19 11.80 1.11 6.45
Xi 10-16 19.47 3.40 11.44 12.20 1.60 6.90
Table : Data of the temperature prevalent during the consecutive fruiting
seasons of pear

44. Months Week Dates Air temperature ⁰C (2008-09) Air temperature ⁰C (2009-10)
Max. Min. Mean Max Min Mean
Jan Xii 17-23 18.93 4.99 11.96 12.60 0.22 6.41
Xiii 24-30 18.91 5.60 12.26 18.21 3.20 10.70
Xiv 31-06 21.14 6.80 13.99 20.07 4.65 12.36
Xv 7-13 22.27 6.49 14.58 19.57 6.00 12.78
Feb Xvi 14-20 22.84 7.56 15.20 21.00 4.71 12.85
Xvii 21-27 25.44 10.50 18.00 24.71 10.28 17.49
Xviii 28-06 24.97 9.38 17.14 25.42 11.71 18.56
Xix 7-13 26.42 9.85 18.13 27.67 10.21 18.94
Mar Xx 14-20 27.57 11.57 19.50 32.42 14.85 23.63
Xxi 21-27 28.00 15.42 21.71 36.57 18.57 27.57
xxii 28-03 27-14 15.11 21.13 35.00 19.28 27.14
Cont.

45. Orchard No. Date of leaf
emergence
End of leaf
emergence
Duration of leaf
emergence (Days)
2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10
Block Verka
I 3-5 Feb 21-24 Feb 28-3 F-M 21-24 Mar 29 30
Ii 3-5 Feb 21-24 Feb 28-3 F-M 22-25 Mar 29 31
Iii 4-6 Feb 20-22 Feb 1-3 Mar 21-24 Mar 26 30
Iv 4-6 Feb 20-22 Feb 1-3 Mar 21-23 Mar 26 30
V 4-6 Feb 20-23 Feb 1-3 Mar 22-25 Mar 26 30
Block Ajnala
Vi 3-5 Feb 22-24 Feb 28-3 F-M 24-27 Mar 29 31
Vii 3-5 Feb 21-23 Feb 27-2 F-M 24-27 Mar 26 32
Viii 4-6 Feb 20-22 Feb 1-3 Mar 24-27 Mar 26 33
Ix 3-5 Feb 22-24 Feb 28-3 F-M 21-23 Mar 29 26
X 3-5 Feb 20-22 Feb 27-2 F-M 24-27 Mar 26 33
Table : Effect of climate on leaf emergence characters of hard pear

46. Orchard
No.
Start of flowering End of flowering Duration of
flowering (Days)
2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10
Block Verka
I 8-9 Feb 27-2 F-M 19-20 Feb 15-16 Mar 11 17
Ii 7-9 Feb 27-2 F-M 19-20 Feb 16-17 Mar 11 18
Iii 7-9 Feb 28-2 F-M 17-18 Feb 17-18 Mar 10 18
Iv 7-9 Feb 1-3 Mar 16-17 Feb 21-23 Mar 09 20
V 9-11 Feb 1-3 Mar 18-19 Feb 21-23 Mar 09 17
Block Ajnala
Vi 9-11 Feb 28-2 F-M 19-20 Feb 14-16 Mar 10 15
Vii 7-9 Feb 27-2 F-M 18-19 Feb 14-16 Mar 11 16
Viii 8-9 Feb 27-2 F-M 18-19 Feb 12-13 Mar 10 14
Ix 9-10 Feb 1-3 Mar 19-20 Feb 16-18 Mar 10 15
X 7-9 Feb 28-2 F-M 16-17 Feb 15-17 Mar 09 16
Table : Effect of climate on flowering characters of hard pear

47. Orchard No. Flowering density
(NO./m)
Fruiting density
(No./m)
Fruit set (%)
2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10
Block Verka
I 48.41 61.15 14.46 24.12 7.45 10.24
Ii 45.80 69.70 15.25 22.10 7.05 12.20
Iii 50.52 62.45 16.52 17.61 8.25 13.40
Iv 45.44 60.41 13.91 22.80 6.40 9.70
V 43.41 63.91 13.40 6.10 9.65
Block Ajnala
Vi 44.45 60.90 13.70 16.42 6.70 8.70
Vii 45.40 62.44 15.10 20.47 8.15 13.45
Viii 47.71 68.43 14.12 23.15 7.44 12.10
Ix 40.50 69.12 12.15 25.75 6.04 8.90
X 50.65 62.95 16.17 21.90 8.40 14.10
Mean 46.22 64.15 14.48 21.34 7.19 11.24
C.D. (P=0.05) 3.88 3.39 2.28 3.34 1.61 2.37
Table : Effect of climate on flowering density, fruiting density and fruit set of
pear

48. Orchard No. Fruit drop (%) Fruit retention (%) Fruit yield (kg/tree)
2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10 2008-09 2009-10
Block Verka
I 28.71 20.82 72.10 78.60 40.35 80.42
Ii 20.81 16.14 70.15 76.10 37.40 78.90
Iii 21.15 15.39 68.12 74.25 31.10 74.40
Iv 18.22 14.70 64.86 72.21 28.70 70.10
V 20.77 14.85 67.39 70.85 32.75 75.48
Block Ajnala
Vi 21.75 13.45 65.15 77.77 30.41 71.14
Vii 22.10 16.90 69.70 78.40 33.71 78.20
Viii 20.10 17.77 64.14 76.22 30.95 72.45
Ix 27.15 20.72 70.91 82.40 38.90 82.10
X 30.12 24.42 76.10 87.18 45.40 90.40
Mean 25.09 17.52 68.86 77.40 34.96 77.35
C.D. (P=0.05) 3.07 3.01 3.84 4.59 3.75 4.81
Table : Effect of climate on fruit drop (%), fruit retention (%) and fruit yield
(kg/tree) of pear

49. Impact of radiation on fruit crops
• Sunshine is a type of radiation that is needed for photosynthesis and
normal plant growth
• Prolong periods of radiation can completely damage the stomata and
destroy the plants
• Prolong radiation can completely destroy the fertility of a plant
• Increases cell mutation
• Damaged plant cells

50. Strawberry yield efficiency and its correlation with
temperature and solar radiation
Pedro Palencia, Fatima Martinez, Juan Jesus Medina, Jose Lopez-Medina
Universidad de Oviedo, Esc. Politécn. de Mieres, Depto. Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, C/Gonzalo
Gutiérrez Quirós s/n, 33600 Mieres, Spain .
Horticultura Brasileira (2013) 31: 93-99
Aim: To assess the variation of
temperature and solar radiation
on strawberry production and
crop cycle duration

51. Figure: Mean temperature and
solar radiation for the
years 2003-2006

52. Year Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Mean±SD
Temperat-
ure (⁰C)
2003-04 18.4 14.1 11.1 11.1 11.6 13.2 15.0 16.8 13.9±2.5
2004-05 18.3 12.7 10.8 7.5 8.3 13.3 15.9 19.0 13.2± 4
2005-06 17.5 12.0 10.7 8.3 9.7 13.3 13.3 19.7 13.1±3.6
Mean±SD
2003-06
18.1
±0.4
12.9
±0.9
10.9
±0.2
9.0±
1.5
9.9±
1.4
13.2
±0
14.7
±1.1
18.5±
1.3
13.4±0.6
Radiation
mJ/m2
2003-04 12.1 9.3 7.7 8.3 11.6 16.6 21.8 22.2 13.7±5.4
2004-05 13.3 10.6 9.6 11.1 13.9 15.2 23.3 25.8 15.4±5.6
2005-06 12.7 10.1 8.2 9.1 11.8 16.0 19.6 24.3 14.0±5.2
Mean±SD
2003-06
12.7
±0.5
10.0
±0.5
8.5±
0.8
9.5±
1.2
12.4
±1
15.9
±0.6
21.6
±1.5
24.1±
1.5
14.3±0.2
Table : Air temperature and solar radiation of each month during three crop
cycle (2003-2006)

53. Year Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. Mean±SD
Second
class
fruit
(g/plant)
2003-04 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.9 9.7 14.5 6.2±5.4
2004-05 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.3 12.4 25.7 44.9 17.1± 16.6
2005-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.4 9.1 10.6 5.2±4.3
Mean±SD
2003-06
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1±
0.1
1.3±
0.7
7.9±3
.2
14.8±
7.7
23.3±1
5.4
9.5±5.6
Total
yield
(g/plant)
2003-04 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 91.9 197.7 340.5 364.9 199.5±146.
7
2004-05 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 110.
2
245.8 464.3 452.7 257.3±189.
2
2005-06 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 101.
2
250.1 243.1 203.5 161.9±107
Mean±SD
2003-06
0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1±
4.8
10.1
±7.5
231.2
±23.7
349.3
±90.5
340.3±
103.2
206.2±33.6
Table : Second class fruit and total yield of each month during three crop cycle
(2003-2006)

54. Figure : Statical early yield model used as related mean radiation and
temperature for the years 2003-2006.
NS= non-significant; *; **significant at p≤0.05 and p≤0.01, respectively

55. Figure : Statical total yield model used as related mean radiation and temperature
for the years 2003-2006
NS = non-significant, *, ** significant at p≤0.05 and p≤0.01, respectively

56. Pollination
Temperature
 If the temperature is either very low or very high there is no fertilization,
thus affecting fruit set.
 -Most of the insects work well at or near 400F & when the temp is either
very low or high, they don’t take flight, which affects pollination and
thereby the fruit set.
Rainfall:
 Rainfall during flowering time affects the activity of pollen carrying insects.
Wind:
 Pollen carrying insects work more effectively in a still atmosphere.
Relative Humidity:
 Activity of bees and other pollen carrying insects is hindered under low or
very high relative humidity.

57. Ecology letters, (2013) 16: 1331-1338 DOI: 10.1111/ele.12170
Biodiversity ensures plant pollinator phenological
synchrony against climate change
Ignasi Bartomeus, Mia G. Park, Jason Gibbs, Bryan N. Danforth, Alan
N. Lakso and Rachael Winfree
Department of Entomology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA
Aim: To examine whether pollinator
biodiversity could buffer plant
pollinator interactions against the climate
change, by increasing and stabilising
phenological synchrony between apple
and its wild pollinators

58. Figure : Map of the study area. The cross (+) indicates the location
of the New York State Agricultural Experiment Station in Geneva,
New York, USA.

59. Figure : Hypothetical scenarios of phenological advance. Bee activity (fine
grey distributions) and apple peak bloom (thick black/red lines) are a
schematic representation of our data.
(a) A stable scenario where both bees and apple change at the same pace.
Change is indicated by the arrow direction between t0 and t1.
(b) Unstable scenarios where apple peak bloom advances more slowly (solid
lines) or more quickly (dotted lines) than bee activity.

60. Year
Collectionday
MeanAprilTemperature
Year
Figure : Change in temperature and phenology of apple and its pollinators
over a 46-year period.
(a) Apple peak bloom (fill circles and solid regression line) and bee specimens
(empty circles and dotted regression line) are shown. Some pollinator species
extend into the summer making the bee intercept higher than for apple.
(b) Mean daily maximum April temperature is expressed in degrees Celsius.
(b)(a)

61. Figure : Response diversity among bee
species in terms of their phenological
shifts over time.
Figure : Synchrony between common
apple-visiting bee species and apple
peak bloom. Negative values indicate
dates before apple peak bloom, and
positive values after.

62. Impact of climate change in pest and diseases
• Climate change has brought about changes in the pest and
disease incidence in fruit crops.
• Due to changes in flowering time and variations in
temperature, introduction of new pests, attaining major pest
status by minor pests and breaking of resistance can occur.

63. Earth Syst. Dynam., 3, 33–47, 2012 DOI:10.5194/esd-3-33-2012
Downscaling climate change scenarios for apple pest
and disease modelling in Switzerland
M. Hirschi1, S. Stoeckli2, M. Dubrovsky3, C. Spirig1, P. Calanca4, M.W. Rotach1,*, A.
M. Fischer1, B. Duffy2, and J. Samietz
Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Kr¨ahb¨uhlstrasse 58, 8044 Z¨urich,
Switzerland
Received: 18 August 2011 – Published in Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss.: 25 August 2011
Revised: 16 January 2012 – Accepted: 26 January 2012 – Published: 27 February 2012
Aim: To examined the influence of climate
change in Switzerland on the
future threat of codling moth and
fire blight

64. Figure : Seasonal (top row) and daily (bottom row) cycles of mean temperature (TAVG), precipitation
(PREC) and global solar radiation (SRAD) for the station Wadenswil. Synthetic data are
displayed in red, observed data in black. Daily cycles are shown for spring and summer in
case of temperature and precipitation, and for spring in case of solar radiation (as only the
codling moth flight start in spring is nfluenced by solar radiation). For temperature and
radiation, results are presented separately for dry and wet days. Database is 29 yr of insitu
observations (1981–2009) and 100 yr of synthetic weather.

65. Fig: Top row: in situ observations of first flight activity of codling moth in spring (left panel), as well as
modeled flight start based on observed weather (middle panel) and based on present-day
synthetic weather (right panel, station Wadenswil). The vertical red lines display the medians of
the distributions. Bottom row: modeled number of fire blight infection days per year based on
observed weather (middle panel) and based on present-day synthetic weather (right panel). In
the right panels, the p-values for the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney (WMW) and the Kolmogorov-
Smirnov (KS) tests are displayed for the difference between the distributions from synthetic
weather and from observed weather (respectively, from in situ observations in brackets, if
available). For fire blight, also the p-values of the Binomial test applied on the annual
occurrence and non-occurrence of infections is shown.

66. Fig: The flight start in spring from synthetic weather for present (“ctrl”, top panel) and
future (“scen”, bottom panel) climate at the stations W¨adenswil (left panels) and
Magadino (right panels). In the bottom panels, the p-values for the Wilcoxon- Mann
Whitney (WMW) and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests are displayed for the
difference between flight start from present-day and future synthetic weather.

67. Fig: The number of fire blight infection days per year from synthetic weather for
present (“ctrl”) and future (“scen”) at the stations W¨adenswil (left panels) and
Magadino (right panels).

68. Declining chilling and its impact on temperate
perennial crops
C.J. Atkinsona, R.M. Brennanb, H.G. Jonesc
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich and East Malling Research, New Road, Kent ME19 6BJ,
UK b James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, UK c University of Dundee at James Hutton
Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, UK
Received 8 November 2012; Received in revised form 29 January 2013; Accepted 1 February 2013
Environmental and Experimental Botany 91 (2013) 48– 62
Aim: To outline why winter chill is
important biologically and
how it impacts on the
production of perennial fruit
crops

69. Comm
odity
Veget
ative
bud
break
Floral
bud
break
Bud
absci
ssion
Flower
absciss
ion
Flower
quality
Reprod
uctive
morpho
logy
Fruit
set
Vegeta
tive
growth
Crop
yield
Product
quality
Apple * * * * * * *
Pear * * *
Cherry * * * *
Plum *
Peach * * * * *
Nectari
ne
* *
Apricot
s
* *
strawb
erry
* * * * *
Table : A summary of the different aspects of perennial fruit crop growth,
development and production impacted by low winter chill.

70. Everyone’s talking about the weather but nobody’s
doing anything about it.
Mark Twain
ADAPTATION TO

71. Adaptation and Mitigation
 Adaptation : Adaptation is the process through which people
reduce the adverse effects of climate and adaptation measures
are meant to protect a community against projected climate
change impacts.
 Mitigation : A human intervention to reduce the sources or
enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases, for example, reducing
the carbon footprint of business operations by cleaner fuels,
reducing electricity consumption, etc.

72.  Develop climate-ready crop varieties
 Increase water saving technologies
 Changing planting date and increased use of integrated farming system
 Crop diversification
 Provide more non-crop flowering resources in the field
 Integrated pest management
 Crop insurance
 Improved weather-base agro-advisory and nutrient management
 Harnessing the indigenous technical knowledge of fruit growers
Adaptation of fruit crops

73. Mitigation measures
 Reduce emissions of greenhouse gases
 Intensive increase in reforestation
 Restoration of degraded lands
 Increased use of composts
 Increase biomass to produce energy
 Land management strategies to increase soil carbon storage

74. Conclusion
 Low winter chill affects tree behaviour such as flowering and lack of
uniformity.
 The phenology, geographic distribution and local abundance of plants
and pollinators appear to be affected by recent climate change.
 Climate systems may change more rapidly than in the past due to heavy
industrialization, rapid utilization of fossil fuel and deforestation..
 It affected the normal growth and development, altered flowering
behaviour , influenced the quality fruit production and has brought
about changes in pest and disease incidence