Exploring the lifestyle, business, and societal impact of autonomous vehicles.

1. Exploring the lifestyle, business, and
societal impact of autonomous vehicles.
ENTERING A WORLD
WHERE WE DON’T DRIVE

2. THE PROBLEM
● In US, more than 6 million police-reported car crashes each year, resulting in:
○ Over 2.3 million serious injuries, and
○ Over 32,000 deaths
● Worldwide:
○ Over 50 million people are injured each year, and
○ Over 1.2 million are killed
● Globally, road traffic crashes are a leading cause of death among young
people, and the main cause of death among those aged 15–29 years
● Human error caused more than 90 percent of those crashes
● In recent years, accident and fatality rates have going up — due in large part
to distracted driving
crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812234
who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2015/en/
fortune.com/2015/09/15/auto-fatalities-increase/
cyberlaw.stanford.edu/blog/2013/12/human-error-cause-vehicle-crashes

3. THE SOLUTION
Vehicles that can drive themselves,
better than we can drive them.
● Unblinking gaze
● Have “eyes in back of their head”
● No alcohol
Note: they don’t have to be as smart as a person,
just as smart as a horse.

4. TODAY’S GOAL
Formulate a vision.
What does a driverless world look like?

5. OUR JOURNEY
● On a path to ubiquity
● Define autonomous
● Regulatory status
● Expose myths
● A potential timeline
● Major points of disruption & value
● Predictions

6. AUTONOMOUS EVERYWHERE

7. YOU NAME IT, IT WILL DRIVE
ITSELF

8. WHAT IS AUTONOMOUS?

9. LEVELS OF AUTOMATION
● Who executes steering and
acceleration/deceleration actions?
● Who monitors the driving
environment?
● Who is the fallback for
performance of driving tasks?
● What are the system capabilities
(driving modes)?
sae.org/misc/pdfs/automated_driving.pdf

10. LEVEL 0
No automation.
Human driver controls it all:
steering, brakes, throttle, power.

11. LEVEL 1
Driver assistance.
Semi-autonomous level where most functions are still
controlled by a human driver.
While some (eg. braking) can be done automatically
by the car.

12. LEVEL 2
Partial automation.
At least 2 functions are automated (eg. cruise control,
lane-centering).
The driver is disengaged from physically operating the vehicle by
having their hands off the steering wheel and foot off pedal at
the same time.
The driver must always remain ready to take control of the
vehicle.

13. LEVEL 3
Conditional automation.
Under certain traffic or environmental conditions, human drivers
are able to completely transfer ‘safety-critical functions’ to the
vehicle.
With the expectation that the human driver will respond
appropriately to a request to intervene.
A human driver is still present, but is not required to monitor the
situation as closely as levels 1 and 2.

14. LEVEL 4
High automation.
The vehicle becomes ‘fully autonomous.’
According to the DOT, level 4 vehicles are “designed to
perform all safety-critical driving functions and
monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip.”

15. LEVEL 5
Full automation.
The vehicle is fully-autonomous with no options for
human driving — no steering wheel or controls.

16. ADOPTION STATUS

17. Global competition for who
will be leaders in this
revolution is driving rapid
approval by legislators.
REGULATORY APPROVAL
mojomotors.com/blog/where-are-driverless-cars-actually-legal

18. Think global.
CONSUMER ADOPTION
blog.ihs.com/beyond-technology,-autonomous-driving-requires-social-framework

19. MYTHS

20. HUMANS ARE BAD DRIVERS
Not quite.
In fact, we’re pretty good at it. In the US, there are ~7
fatalities for every 4 billion miles driven.
Self-driving cars will lower that rate dramatically by
eliminating some of our weaknesses.

21. CAN BUY FULLY AUTOMATED
TODAY
Not yet.
Current vehicles are at Level 3.
Level 4 seems to be right around the corner though.

22. DECIDING LIFE OVER DEATH
The ever-popular, ‘who to hit’ conundrum.
Computers are very good at predicting future
outcomes. So one answer could be to program the
cars to avoid situations that may lead to such
conundrums (eg. never drive next to a bus).
Researchers are also working on machine ‘ethics.’
roboticstrends.com/article/programming_self_driving_cars_to_make_ethical_decisions

23. REMOVES ALL HUMAN ERROR
Unfortunately, no.
Up to Level 4, humans will still have input and the
potential for human error.
And at Levels 4 and 5, the systems will be
programmed by humans, allowing the possibility of
human error in the logic.

24. END OF DRIVING FOR PLEASURE
Not a chance.
Manual driving will remain an option in some vehicles.
And ‘hobbyist’ vehicles will most likely still focus on
manual driving. Especially as the performance of
electric vehicles grows.
teslarati.com/ferrari-ceo-drove-tesla-wont-make-self-driving-car

25. IT WILL KILL MOTORSPORTS
No, again.
Passions will continue and sports will evolve.
readwrite.com/2016/09/09/japan-self-driving-2020-tl4

26. FOR CONSUMERS ONLY
Not even close.
Commercial industries will be the big winners.
Autonomous trucks, boats, aircraft, are all on the way.

27. NO MORE CAR ACCIDENTS
Unfortunately, probably not.
We’ll still have problems pop up now and then: an
algorithm miscalculates an obstacle, a malfunctioning
sensor, hackers, etc.

28. IT’S STILL DECADES AWAY
Guess again.
We’re already at Level 3 and nearly every auto
manufacturer is hard at work on Levels 4 and 5.
We are only a few short years away from fully
autonomous rolling out.

29. A POTENTIAL TIMELINE

30. 2018
● Tesla and Audi go Level 4 (fully autonomous)
● Google car rolls out
● Apple car rolls out
theverge.com/2016/1/10/10746020/elon-musk-tesla-autonomous-driving-predictions-summon
carscoops.com/2016/07/upcoming-audi-a8-to-offer-fully.html

31. 2020
Self driving modes from…
● Ford
● Volkswagen
● Nissan
● BMW
● GM
● Toyota

32. 2025
● Driverless cars go global

33. 2030
● Uber’s driverless fleet rolls out
● Large portion of cars on road are autonomous
● Buying a car for transportation becomes obsolete

34. 2040
● Autonomous vehicles are primary mode of
transportation

35. MAJOR IMPACT

36. SAVES LIVES
● 1.2 million drivers die every year around world (injure far more)
● Accidents cost $230 billion annually in US ($0.08/mi)
● 40% of all accidents are from drunk driving (computers don’t drink)
● 80% of all accidents come from inattention (computers don’t blink)
youtube.com/watch?v=chqYI60-KKM

37. LOWER ENERGY COST
● 25% of entire US energy budget goes to
personal transportation
● Most of us don’t need or use the full
capacity of our current vehicles every day
● If you only need to get from point A to
point B, choose a more appropriate vehicle
(for that task)
● Eliminating the waste will drop our overall
energy usage and emissions significantly
or

38. LOWER ACCIDENT COSTS
● Vehicle accidents cost the US over $240 billion annually
○ medical costs
○ property damage
○ lost productivity
○ legal and court costs
● That cost rises to over $830 billion when the impact to quality
of life is taken into account
● Globally, the World Health Organization estimates that 3% of
GDP is lost to road traffic deaths and injuries
crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812013
who.int/violence_injury_prevention/road_safety_status/2015/Executive_summary_GSRRS2015.pdf
○ emergency service costs
○ insurance administration costs
○ congestion costs
○ workplace losses

39. LOWER COST OF LIVING
Fewer expenses in…
● Monthly car payments
● Car insurance
● Car maintenance
In the US, we spend 19% of household income on transportation
(the largest category after housing), putting that back in your
pocket can have a large impact on quality of life.
fhwa.dot.gov/livability/fact_sheets/transandhousing.cfm

40. LESS WASTED TIME
● 30% of city traffic is due to drivers looking for parking
● Driverless cars could deliver their passengers to their destination
and drive away, eliminating the need to hunt for parking or walk
back to the office
● Avoiding congestion due to the hunt for parking could translate into
$11 billion in fuel savings across the US each year
● The total savings in the US could up to $1.3 trillion dollars
nytimes.com/2007/03/29/opinion/29shoup.html
morganstanley.com/articles/autonomous-cars-the-future-is-now

41. MASSIVE BOOST IN
PRODUCTIVITY
50 billion hours spent driving every year in US
(we work 240 billion hours).
How will you use that new free time?

42. LESS LAND REQUIRED
On average, 3 parking spaces
per car (60% of land in Los
Angeles).
Autonomous cars don’t need
to park, they can “stand.”
Imagine what we could do
with all that reclaimed space.
theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2015/08/driverless-cars-robot-cabs-parking-traffic/400526

43. LESS TRAFFIC
Autonomous vehicles can cover
the needs of what takes 2 cars
today.
Add on virtual reality and we
we’ll be needing/wanting to
travel even less.

44. RESHAPING DELIVERY
What if you can get anything in
30 minutes or less?
Drones will be able to deliver
on-demand.

45. REAL ESTATE VALUE
If we can easily drive anywhere without losing the
productivity or entertainment time, will city sprawl
change?
And as our need for proximity changes, how will the
price of land change?

46. ENDLESS IMPACT
● Car dealerships close up shop
● Who needs air bags?
● Need for steel drops
● Body shops fade away
● No more mandatory car insurance
● Personal injury lawyers take a hit
● Emergency rooms & hospital stays thin out

47. PREDICTIONS

48. CAR AS A SERVICE
Instead of walking into a car
dealership and asking, “What kind of
car do I need for everything?”
We’ll be pulling out the smartphone
and asking, “What kind of car do I
need right now?”
economist.com/node/21685459
asirt.org/initiatives/informing-road-users/road-safety-facts/road-crash-statistics

49. TECH GIANTS TAKEOVER
Just like other technologies in our digitized world,
hardware becomes less important and software
becomes the critical motivator for customer
experience.

50. LOUNGE SEATING
Comfy.

51. THE ROAD OFFICE IS BORN
Initially these vehicles
look like normal cars,
eventually they'll look
like desks, lounges,
motel rooms, etc.
111 hours per year
reclaimed.
inrix.com

52. CAR THEATER
Thank you VR.

53. LOVE SHACK
Who needs a
motel room?

54. PORTA-POTTY
No more gas station
restrooms.

55. ROBOT CHAUFFEUR
Parents not required?
Running errands and
shuttling kids to and
from school, etc.

56. NO LICENSE REQUIRED
Level 4 and 5 shouldn’t require a
license to operate.
But it may still require a license to
own a self driving car.

57. AUTOMATED GAS STATIONS
Electric recharge
or gas ‘fill up.’

58. WE FORGET HOW TO DRIVE
1 or 2 generations?

59. END OF DRUNK DRIVING
Level 4+

60. ROBOT MECHANICS
Robots
repairing
robots.
nbc.com/saturday-night-live/video/robot-repair/n9778

61. LEAPFROG
Developing countries
will skip building out
the costly car-centric
city infrastructure
needed by human
drivers and go straight
to transportation
infrastructure
purpose-built for
driverless.
doggerel.arup.com/road-diets-and-car-clouds-shaping-the-driverless-city

62. WRAPPING IT UP

63. DON’T FORGET...EXPONENTIAL
Today?
Uber?
Google?
Tesla?
The same amount of progress made
over the past ten years will happen in
just a few years moving forward.
Chrysler?
GM?
Geico?
Linear thinking
Disruption… or
poor
planning?
Level 0 Level 1
Level 3
Level 2
Level 4
Level 5
Ferrari?

64. WHAT ARE YOUR THOUGHTS?
See any opportunities in our driverless future?

65. UNLEASH YOUR BUSINESS
EMBRACE EXPONENTIAL
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