The document discusses the effects of an interim agreement between Philphos, Century, and KSPC based on hourly average spot market prices from April 23 to April 30, 2011. It analyzes two scenarios for both Philphos and Century - maximizing contracted capacity nomination or nominating zero and paying for unnominated quantities. For both companies, the strategy is to maximize nomination if forecasted prices are above a threshold and nominate zero otherwise. It also compares estimated payables and expenses for Philphos and Century under each scenario.
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2. INTERIM AGREEMENT CUSTOMER TO BE CONTRACTED AGREEMENT Philphos 9.4 MW May – December 2011 = 0 MW January 2012 onwards= 9.7 MW Century 6.7 MW Incremental power demand from May to December 2011 (from 2.4223 to 6.7 MW)
3. PHILPHOS Scenario 1 To maximize nomination of contracted capacity equivalent to 9.4 MW Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC (252,689,146) MEI's Collectible from Philphos 0 MEI's Collectible from Market Operations 122,673,821 Total Payable in PhP (130,015,324)
4. PHILPHOS Scenario 2 To nominate zero (0) and pay the 75% of the Unnominated Quantity at the end of the year Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC 0 MEI's Collectible from Philphos 0 MEI's Payable to KSPC for UQ (193,137,739) Total Payable in PhP (193,137,739)
5. PHILPHOS Strategy in the Nomination of Hourly Contracted Quantity *If Forecasted Market Price is higher than 1.4017 P/kWh, Adopt Scenario 1: Maximize Nomination of Philphos @ 9.4 MW *If Forecasted Market Price is equal or lower than 1.4017 P/kWh, Adopt Scenario 2: Nominate Zero (0) and Pay the 75% of the Unlifted Quantity at the end of the year *To get the Break-even Spot Market Price of 5.9477 P/kWh the prevailing latest Average Spot Market Price must increase by 32% Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC (247,726,528) MEI's Collectible from Philphos 0 MEI's Collectible from M.O. 118,343,892 Total Payable in PhP (129,382,636)
7. CENTURY Scenario 1 To maximize nomination of contracted capacity equivalent to 6.7 MW Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC (180,108,221) MEI's Collectible from Century 130,025,851 MEI's Collectible from Market Operations 23,309,018 Total Payable in Php (26,773,352)
8. CENTURY Scenario 2 To nominate the scheduled incremental consumption and pay the 75% of the Unnominated Quantity at the end of the year. Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC 0 MEI's Collectible from Century 0 MEI's Payable to KSPC for UQ (40,353,844) Total Payable in PhP (40,353,844)
9. CENTURY Strategy in the Nomination of Hourly Contracted Quantity *If Forecasted Market Price is higher than 1.5313 P/kWh, Adopt Scenario 1: Maximize Nomination of Century @ 6.7 MW *If Forecasted Market Price is equal or lower than 1.5313 P/kWh, Adopt Scenario 2: Nominate Zero (0) and Pay the 75% of the Unlifted Quantity at the end of the year *To get the Break-even Spot Market Price of 5.9329 P/kWh the prevailing latest Average Spot Market Price must increase by 32% Expected Result: Amount MEI's Payable to KSPC (168,462,023) MEI's Collectible from Philphos 130,025,851 MEI's Collectible from M.O. 20,222,792 Total Payable in PhP (18,213,380)
10. Comparison of Payables Philphos vs Century 9.4 MW Philphos Estimated Payable = 129,382,636 PhP (Scenario 1*) 6.7 MW Century Estimated Payable = 18,213,380 PhP (Scenario 1*) * - Trade in full with due consideration of the threshold price
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13. Other Expenses to be Incurred 2.) KSPC Security Deposit (June – December 2011): = 10% of Contracted Monthly Energy x KSPC Contract Price with VAT = 0.10 x 21,090,000 kWh/mo x 5.334 P/kWh Security Deposit = P 11,249,406 per month Commitment Fee : = ¼ of 1% of Security Deposit = P 28,124 Commission Fee: 1/8 of 1% of Security Deposit = P 14,062 Total Commitment Fee & Commission Fee = P 42,186 per month Total = P 79,041,144 (for 7 months)