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Cores of Learning in This Chapter



     The determinants of interest rates
     Term structure
     Pure expectations hypothesis




.                               1
Overview of Financial Management


     Definition of finance
     Financial management functions
     Goals of the corporation
     Financial markets
     Interest rates and yield curves

.                                2
Definition of finance
             Definition of finance

     Finance is concerned with the
      process, institutions, markets, and
      instruments involved in the transfer
      of money among individuals and
      organizations.




.                                    3
Relationships among investors, firms,
            and financial markets
           Funds                                   Funds
                                Financial
                 Deposit       Institutions         Loan
                certificates                      contracts



    Investors                                                 Firms


           Securities          Financial      Securities

                               Markets
          Funds                                     Funds
.                                                    4
Financial management functions



     Forecasting and planning
     Investment and financing decisions
     Coordination and control
     Transactions in the financial
      markets
     Managing risk
.                                 5
Goals of the Corporation


     The primary goal is shareholder wealth
      maximization, which translates to
      maximizing stock price.
       Should firms behave ethically? YES!
       Do firms have any responsibilities to
        society at large? YES! Shareholders are
        also members of society.


.                                    6
Is maximizing stock price good for
    society, employees, and customers?
 Actions maximizing stock price also benefit
  society:
   managers that maximize stock price improve
    the quality of lives of their owners, a lot of
    whom are ordinary citizens
   stock price maximization requires efficient,
    low-cost operations that produce high quality
    products that benefit consumers
   Companies that successfully increase stock
    price also grow and add more employees, thus
    benefiting employees
.                                      7
Factors that Affect
         Company Value (Stock Price)


     Amount of cash flows expected by
      shareholders
     Timing of the cash flow stream
     Risk of the cash flows


    Figure 1-1 (slide 12).
.                               8
Factors that Affect the Amount
               of Cash Flows
     Sales Revenues (investment decisions)
       Increase unit sales 单位销售额 by
        providing what customers want
       Develop new products for higher prices
     Operating costs and taxes
       Reduce operating costs by supply chain
         management and employee training, etc.
     Investments in operations
      Reduce asset requirements: e.g. JIT
.                                       9
Factors that Affect the Risk
            of Cash Flows (WACC)
     Financing decisions: wd, wce
       Capital structure
       Specific type of financing
     Interest rate: rRF
     Firm risk: beta
       Business characteristics
     Market risk: rM - rRF
       Stock market investors’ overall attitude
        toward risk

.                                        10
The Influence of Timing on
              Value of Operations
                 Company Value



                 FCF1       FCF2                FCF∞
    Value =             +           + ....
            (1 + WACC) (1 + WACC)
                      1           2
                                           (1 + WACC) ∞




.                                          11
DeterminantsOperations Value
                 Value of of A Firm’s
                 Operating          Required
     Sales                                             Financing   Interest        Firm    Market
                 Costs and        Investments
    Revenues      Taxes          in Operations         Decisions   Rates           Risk     Risk




                                                                    Weighted Average
               Free Cash Flows
                                      Amount of cash flows           Cost of Capital      Risk of cash flows
                    (FCF)                                               (WACC)




                                            Value of the Firm

                                 FCF1        FCF2                FCF∞
               Value =                 +             + ....
                            (1 + WACC)1 (1 + WACC) 2        (1 + WACC) ∞


                                         Timing of cash flows


.                                                                             12
The Financial Environment



     Financial markets
     Determinants of interest rates
     Yield curves 产出曲线



.                               13
Define these markets

     A market is a method of exchanging one
      asset (usually cash) for another asset.
     Markets for physical assets
     Markets for financial assets
     Money versus capital markets
     Primary versus secondary markets
     Spot versus futures markets


.                                  14
 What do we call the price, or cost,
      of debt capital?

              The interest rate

     What do we call the price, or cost,
      of equity capital?

       Required Dividend   Capital
        return = yield   + gain .

.                                 15
What four factors affect the cost
                of money?


     Production opportunities (r*)
     Time preferences for consumption
      (r*)
     Risk (DRP, LP, MRP)
     Expected inflation (IP)

.                               16
Real versus Nominal Rates


    r    = Any nominal rate.


    r*   = Real risk-free rate.
           T-bond rate if no inflation;
           1% to 4% (0.67% for an inflation-indexed
            treasury bond of 4-year maturity in Apr. 2003)
    rRF = Rate on Treasury securities
        = r* + IP.
.                                       17
r = r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP.
    Here:
      r =   Required rate of return on a
        debt security.
      r* =   Real risk-free rate.
      IP =   Inflation premium.
    DRP =   Default risk premium (0.6-
     3.5%).
     LP =    Liquidity premium (2-5%).
                                 18
.
    MRP=     Maturity risk premium (1-3%).
Premiums Added to r* for Different
             Types of Debt

     ST Treasury: only IP for ST inflation
     LT Treasury: IP for LT inflation, MRP
     ST corporate: ST IP, DRP, LP
     LT corporate: LT IP, DRP, LP, MRP
      (Besides MRP, DRP and LP are also larger for long-term bond.
      • There is a higher default risk in a longer maturity.
      • Due to low DRP and MRP of short-term bond, a buyer can buy it
        without doing much credit checking.  higher liquidity)


.                                                  19
What is the “term structure of interest
     rates”? What is a “yield curve”?

     Term structure: the relationship
      between interest rates (or yields)
      and maturities.
     A graph of the term structure is
      called the yield curve.



.                                 20
Data for yield curve construction
     Inflation rate – 5% next year, 6% the
      following year, and 8% thereafter.
     Maturity risk premium – 0 for
      securities that mature within 1 year,
      0.1% for 2-year security, MRP
      increase by 0.1% point per year
      thereafter up to year 20, after which it
      is stable.
     Real risk-free rate is 3%.
.                                   21
Yield Curve Construction


Step 1: Find the average expected
        inflation rate over years 1 to n:
                     n
                    Σ INFLt
            IPn =   t=1        .
                          n

.                                  22
IP1 = 5%/1.0 = 5.00%.

    IP10 = [5 + 6 + 8(8)]/10 = 7.5%.

    IP20 = [5 + 6 + 8(18)]/20 = 7.75%.
    Must earn these IPs to break even
    versus inflation; that is, these IPs
    would permit you to earn r* (before
    taxes).

.                                      23
Step 2: Find MRP based on this
            equation:

           MRPt = 0.1%(t - 1).


           MRP1 = 0.1% x 0 = 0.0%.

           MRP10 = 0.1% x 9 = 0.9%.

           MRP20 = 0.1% x 19 = 1.9%.
                                 24
.
Step 3: Add the IPs and MRPs to r*:

           rRFt = r* + IPt + MRPt .

    rRF = Quoted market interest
           rate on treasury securities.
    If r* = 3%:
      rRF1 = 3% + 5% + 0.0% = 8.0%.
     rRF10 = 3% + 7.5% + 0.9% = 11.4%.
     rRF20 = 3% + 7.75% + 1.9% = 12.65%.
.                                25
Hypothetical Treasury Yield Curve
    Interest
    Rate (%)                                   1 yr     8.0%
    15           Maturity risk premium        10 yr    11.4%
                                              20 yr   12.65%
    10                Inflation premium



     5

                      Real risk-free rate
     0                                      Years to Maturity
         1       10                     20

.                                                26
What factors can explain the shape of
              this yield curve?

     This constructed yield curve is upward
      sloping.
     This is due to increasing expected
      inflation and an increasing maturity
      risk premium.
     A yield curve can be downward sloping
      if the expected inflation is lower in the
      long-term than in the short-term.
      (decreasing IP, increasing MRP)

.                                      27
What kind of relationship exists
    between the Treasury yield curve and
    the yield curves for corporate issues?

 Corporate yield curves are higher than that
  of the Treasury bond. However, corporate
  yield curves are not necessarily parallel to
  the Treasury curve (The spread widens in
  maturity since DRP and LP are larger in
  longer maturity only for corporate bonds).
 The spread between a corporate yield curve
  and the Treasury curve widens as the
  corporate bond rating decreases (DRP, LP).

.                                  28
Hypothetical Treasury and
             Corporate Yield Curves
Interest
Rate (%)
15


                                           BB-Rated
10
                                           AAA-Rated
                                        Treasury
                                   6.0%
    5                  5.9%             yield curve
            5.2%

                                           Years to
    0
                                           maturity
        0     1    5     10   15      20
.                                    29
The Pure Expectations Hypothesis
                    (PEH)

     As large bond traders buy and sell long-term
      bonds as frequently as short-term bonds to pick
      up short-term profit, they are not exposed to MRP.
      Thus MRP = 0. (for long-term bonds, they are
      exposed to more LP, exposed to the same DRP
      compared to short-term bonds)
     Shape of the yield curve depends on the
      investors’ expectations about future interest
      rates. Interest rate is an average of current and
      expected future short-term interest rates.
                           1 n *
                   rRFn   = ∑ ( ri + IPi )
                           n i =1

.                                            30

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Topic a (ch 1, week1)

  • 1. Cores of Learning in This Chapter  The determinants of interest rates  Term structure  Pure expectations hypothesis . 1
  • 2. Overview of Financial Management  Definition of finance  Financial management functions  Goals of the corporation  Financial markets  Interest rates and yield curves . 2
  • 3. Definition of finance Definition of finance  Finance is concerned with the process, institutions, markets, and instruments involved in the transfer of money among individuals and organizations. . 3
  • 4. Relationships among investors, firms, and financial markets Funds Funds Financial Deposit Institutions Loan certificates contracts Investors Firms Securities Financial Securities Markets Funds Funds . 4
  • 5. Financial management functions  Forecasting and planning  Investment and financing decisions  Coordination and control  Transactions in the financial markets  Managing risk . 5
  • 6. Goals of the Corporation  The primary goal is shareholder wealth maximization, which translates to maximizing stock price. Should firms behave ethically? YES! Do firms have any responsibilities to society at large? YES! Shareholders are also members of society. . 6
  • 7. Is maximizing stock price good for society, employees, and customers?  Actions maximizing stock price also benefit society: managers that maximize stock price improve the quality of lives of their owners, a lot of whom are ordinary citizens stock price maximization requires efficient, low-cost operations that produce high quality products that benefit consumers Companies that successfully increase stock price also grow and add more employees, thus benefiting employees . 7
  • 8. Factors that Affect Company Value (Stock Price)  Amount of cash flows expected by shareholders  Timing of the cash flow stream  Risk of the cash flows Figure 1-1 (slide 12). . 8
  • 9. Factors that Affect the Amount of Cash Flows  Sales Revenues (investment decisions) Increase unit sales 单位销售额 by providing what customers want Develop new products for higher prices  Operating costs and taxes Reduce operating costs by supply chain management and employee training, etc.  Investments in operations Reduce asset requirements: e.g. JIT . 9
  • 10. Factors that Affect the Risk of Cash Flows (WACC)  Financing decisions: wd, wce Capital structure Specific type of financing  Interest rate: rRF  Firm risk: beta Business characteristics  Market risk: rM - rRF Stock market investors’ overall attitude toward risk . 10
  • 11. The Influence of Timing on Value of Operations Company Value FCF1 FCF2 FCF∞ Value = + + .... (1 + WACC) (1 + WACC) 1 2 (1 + WACC) ∞ . 11
  • 12. DeterminantsOperations Value Value of of A Firm’s Operating Required Sales Financing Interest Firm Market Costs and Investments Revenues Taxes in Operations Decisions Rates Risk Risk Weighted Average Free Cash Flows Amount of cash flows Cost of Capital Risk of cash flows (FCF) (WACC) Value of the Firm FCF1 FCF2 FCF∞ Value = + + .... (1 + WACC)1 (1 + WACC) 2 (1 + WACC) ∞ Timing of cash flows . 12
  • 13. The Financial Environment  Financial markets  Determinants of interest rates  Yield curves 产出曲线 . 13
  • 14. Define these markets  A market is a method of exchanging one asset (usually cash) for another asset.  Markets for physical assets  Markets for financial assets  Money versus capital markets  Primary versus secondary markets  Spot versus futures markets . 14
  • 15.  What do we call the price, or cost, of debt capital? The interest rate  What do we call the price, or cost, of equity capital? Required Dividend Capital return = yield + gain . . 15
  • 16. What four factors affect the cost of money?  Production opportunities (r*)  Time preferences for consumption (r*)  Risk (DRP, LP, MRP)  Expected inflation (IP) . 16
  • 17. Real versus Nominal Rates r = Any nominal rate. r* = Real risk-free rate. T-bond rate if no inflation; 1% to 4% (0.67% for an inflation-indexed treasury bond of 4-year maturity in Apr. 2003) rRF = Rate on Treasury securities = r* + IP. . 17
  • 18. r = r* + IP + DRP + LP + MRP. Here: r = Required rate of return on a debt security. r* = Real risk-free rate. IP = Inflation premium. DRP = Default risk premium (0.6- 3.5%). LP = Liquidity premium (2-5%). 18 . MRP= Maturity risk premium (1-3%).
  • 19. Premiums Added to r* for Different Types of Debt  ST Treasury: only IP for ST inflation  LT Treasury: IP for LT inflation, MRP  ST corporate: ST IP, DRP, LP  LT corporate: LT IP, DRP, LP, MRP (Besides MRP, DRP and LP are also larger for long-term bond. • There is a higher default risk in a longer maturity. • Due to low DRP and MRP of short-term bond, a buyer can buy it without doing much credit checking.  higher liquidity) . 19
  • 20. What is the “term structure of interest rates”? What is a “yield curve”?  Term structure: the relationship between interest rates (or yields) and maturities.  A graph of the term structure is called the yield curve. . 20
  • 21. Data for yield curve construction  Inflation rate – 5% next year, 6% the following year, and 8% thereafter.  Maturity risk premium – 0 for securities that mature within 1 year, 0.1% for 2-year security, MRP increase by 0.1% point per year thereafter up to year 20, after which it is stable.  Real risk-free rate is 3%. . 21
  • 22. Yield Curve Construction Step 1: Find the average expected inflation rate over years 1 to n: n Σ INFLt IPn = t=1 . n . 22
  • 23. IP1 = 5%/1.0 = 5.00%. IP10 = [5 + 6 + 8(8)]/10 = 7.5%. IP20 = [5 + 6 + 8(18)]/20 = 7.75%. Must earn these IPs to break even versus inflation; that is, these IPs would permit you to earn r* (before taxes). . 23
  • 24. Step 2: Find MRP based on this equation: MRPt = 0.1%(t - 1). MRP1 = 0.1% x 0 = 0.0%. MRP10 = 0.1% x 9 = 0.9%. MRP20 = 0.1% x 19 = 1.9%. 24 .
  • 25. Step 3: Add the IPs and MRPs to r*: rRFt = r* + IPt + MRPt . rRF = Quoted market interest rate on treasury securities. If r* = 3%: rRF1 = 3% + 5% + 0.0% = 8.0%. rRF10 = 3% + 7.5% + 0.9% = 11.4%. rRF20 = 3% + 7.75% + 1.9% = 12.65%. . 25
  • 26. Hypothetical Treasury Yield Curve Interest Rate (%) 1 yr 8.0% 15 Maturity risk premium 10 yr 11.4% 20 yr 12.65% 10 Inflation premium 5 Real risk-free rate 0 Years to Maturity 1 10 20 . 26
  • 27. What factors can explain the shape of this yield curve?  This constructed yield curve is upward sloping.  This is due to increasing expected inflation and an increasing maturity risk premium.  A yield curve can be downward sloping if the expected inflation is lower in the long-term than in the short-term. (decreasing IP, increasing MRP) . 27
  • 28. What kind of relationship exists between the Treasury yield curve and the yield curves for corporate issues?  Corporate yield curves are higher than that of the Treasury bond. However, corporate yield curves are not necessarily parallel to the Treasury curve (The spread widens in maturity since DRP and LP are larger in longer maturity only for corporate bonds).  The spread between a corporate yield curve and the Treasury curve widens as the corporate bond rating decreases (DRP, LP). . 28
  • 29. Hypothetical Treasury and Corporate Yield Curves Interest Rate (%) 15 BB-Rated 10 AAA-Rated Treasury 6.0% 5 5.9% yield curve 5.2% Years to 0 maturity 0 1 5 10 15 20 . 29
  • 30. The Pure Expectations Hypothesis (PEH)  As large bond traders buy and sell long-term bonds as frequently as short-term bonds to pick up short-term profit, they are not exposed to MRP. Thus MRP = 0. (for long-term bonds, they are exposed to more LP, exposed to the same DRP compared to short-term bonds)  Shape of the yield curve depends on the investors’ expectations about future interest rates. Interest rate is an average of current and expected future short-term interest rates. 1 n * rRFn = ∑ ( ri + IPi ) n i =1 . 30

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. 4
  2. 9 Important!
  3. 13
  4. 14
  5. 14
  6. Dividend yield 股息生息率 即您每年红利所得占买入价格的百分数。例如,如果您以 100 元一股买入,每股分到 4 元红利,那么,该股票的股息生息率就是 4% 。但是如果买入价格是 50 元,每股分得 4 元,则股息生息率就是 8% 。
  7. Nominal rate: 名义利率 票面汇率 名义汇率也可以称为双国汇率。它是一种货币以另一种货币为基础的价格,可以表示为本国货币的外币价格,也可以表示为外国货币的本币价格。名义汇率通常可以在报纸上查到,而且通常有一个买价与卖价的差价。就是现实中的货币兑换比率,它可能由市场决定,也可能由官方制定。
  8. Inflation premium: 通货膨胀溢价 在债券持有期内预期未来通货膨胀率的平均值。预期通货膨胀率越高,通货膨胀溢价也就相应越高;反之,通货膨胀溢价越低。 Default: 违约拖欠债务