2. Christian Sandström holds a PhD from Chalmers
University of Technology, Sweden. He writes and speaks
about disruptive innovation and technological change.
8. Performance
A technology’s
At some point, a
performance
breakthrough
evolves slowly in
happens and it now
the beginning.
improves rapidly.
Time
8
9. Performance Limits of what is scientifically possible
are reached and performance doesn’t
increase much more.
A technology’s
At some point, a
performance
breakthrough
evolves slowly in
happens and it now
the beginning.
improves rapidly.
Time
9
10. When one technology is
displaced by another
technology, the pattern might
look something like this:
10
12. Performance
The initially lower
performance makes it
seemingly irrational for
firms dominating the
previous technology to
invest at an early point.
Time
12
15. This notion comes from an
observation by Gilfillan (1935)
who noted that the best sailing
ships were produced when
steam ships had already
displaced them.
15
16. A Sailing Ship effect can be
illustrated in the following way:
16
19. Performance
The threat of being
displaced triggers
investments in the
established technology,
increasing its
performance.
Time
19
20. Performance But it is too late and the new
technology wins in the long term.
The threat of being
displaced triggers
investments in the
established technology,
increasing its
performance.
Time
20
22. http://www.hdcctvalliance.com/
“The HDcctv Alliance is the
trade association for the
global HDcctv industry.
HDcctv is the world's only
electrical interface
standard for HD
surveillance video,
providing 100% digital
transmission of
uncompressed HDTV
signals over existing
coax. Seeing is
believing!”
22
23. http://www.hdcctvalliance.com/
“The HDcctv Alliance is the
trade association for the
global HDcctv industry.
HDcctv is the world's only
electrical interface
standard for HD
surveillance video,
providing 100% digital
transmission of
uncompressed HDTV
signals over existing
coax. Seeing is
believing!”
Analog HDCCTV is a contradiction in terms! Why this
notion? And why in 2009? 23
24. Analog CCTV is threatened by
Digital, IP-based video
surveillance.
24
25. As the image quality of IP
surveillance improved and HD
quality was progressively
introduced from 2008 and on,
this put pressure on analog
CCTV companies.
25
28. Image Quality
CCTV was introduced in the
1950s and improved over
the following decades. Time
28
29. Image Quality
IP Video started off with a
lower performance.
CCTV was introduced in the
1950s and improved over
the following decades. Time
29
30. Image Quality
With HD Quality
in 2008, it was
now better than
CCTV.
IP Video started off with a
lower performance.
CCTV was introduced in the
1950s and improved over
the following decades. Time
30
31. Image Quality
Being increasingly threatened, With HD Quality
CCTV companies make som final in 2008, it was
improvements to an obsolete now better than
technology. CCTV.
IP Video started off with a
lower performance.
CCTV was introduced in the
1950s and improved over
the following decades. Time
31
32. Image Quality
Being increasingly threatened, With HD Quality
CCTV companies make som final in 2008, it was
improvements to an obsolete now better than
technology. CCTV.
IP Video started off with a
lower performance.
CCTV was introduced in the
1950s and improved over
the following decades. Time
32
34. Grübler (1990) describes a sailing effect pattern
in the automotive industry:
“It is as if the industry itself anticipates the approaching
saturating markets and tries to gain ground by
accelerating the pace of incremental innovations. Note
that during periods of steady, regular high growth rates
(the steep part of the automobile diffusion curve) the
rates of technological change appeared to be much
slower.
Faced with almost saturated markets, the industry
appears to be forced to rapidly introduce technological
innovations as part of the competitive "elbowing" in
the struggle for market shares.”
34
35. Sources
Gilfillan, S.C., Inventing the Ship, Chicago, Follett
Publishing Co, 1935.
Grübler, A. (1990) The Rise and Fall of Infrastructures -
Dynamics of Evolution and Technological Change in
Transport, Physica-Verlag.