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ASEAN Meeting of Energy Ministers in 2018

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A very small snapshot on energy consumption, growth and resource availability. The International Energy Agency has a lot of very good resources: https://www.iea.org

Publié dans : Environnement
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ASEAN Meeting of Energy Ministers in 2018

  1. 1. © OECD/IEA 2018 2018 ASEAN Ministers of Energy Meeting Singapore, 29 October 2018 IEA Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA
  2. 2. © OECD/IEA 2018 The global energy context • The rise in energy prices has not been good news during a difficult period for the global economy • Three large-scale transformations in global energy set the scene: - The United States is turning into the undisputed global leader for oil & gas - Solar PV is on track to be the cheapest source of new electricity in many countries - The future is electrifying, spurred by cooling, electric vehicles & digitalisation • The future of global energy markets will be shaped by Southeast Asia along with China & India
  3. 3. © OECD/IEA 2018 Southeast Asia to add ‘another Japan’ to global energy demand over the next two decades, with implications for global energy markets and trade flows The global energy landscape is shifting – ASEAN to play a leading role Change in energy demand, 2016-40 (Mtoe) India 1 005 420 Southeast Asia China 790 United States -30 Japan -50 Europe -200 270Central and South America 485 Africa 135 Eurasia 480 Middle East
  4. 4. © OECD/IEA 2018 100 200 300 400 500 2000 2016 2025 2040 Coal (Mtce) Growing risks to ASEAN’s energy security Fossil fuel production and demand to 2040 Production Demand 50 100 150 200 250 300 2000 2016 2025 2040 Gas (bcm)Oil (mb/d) 2000 2016 2025 2040 2 4 6 10 8 Southeast Asia is set to become a net importer of oil, gas and coal, increasing vulnerability to price volatility and raising energy security concerns
  5. 5. © OECD/IEA 2018 Generation 46% Transmission & Distribution 54% The ASEAN challenge: Mobilizing power sector investment Total cumulative power sector investment in Southeast Asia to 2040 Southeast Asia needs power sector investment of $1.25 trillion to 2040 – this is equivalent to around $50 billion per year on average, twice the current level
  6. 6. © OECD/IEA 2018 The IEA is assisting ASEAN power system integration Regional power system integration will enhance electricity security, boost economic growth & speed- up renewables deployment; The IEA is helping based on global best practices
  7. 7. © OECD/IEA 2018 Energy efficiency: The case of air conditioning in ASEAN Air conditioners represent the largest source of electricity demand growth in ASEAN; Today, 15% of ASEAN households have air conditioners compared to 90% in Japan and the US, signaling significant scope for growth Share of final electricity demand growth to 2040 in ASEAN countries Cooling 35% Lighting and appliances 21% Other buildings 11% Industry 26% Other 7%
  8. 8. © OECD/IEA 2018 Based on IEA data, CO2 emissions are on track to rise for a second year in a row, after remaining flat for the three previous years Global energy-related CO2 emissions Global emissions are set to increase in 2018 – again CO2 emissions Increase in 2017 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Gt CO2
  9. 9. © OECD/IEA 2018 Concluding remarks • High oil prices are hurting consumers and could have adverse implications for producers • The emergence of a competitive, global gas market with the rise of LNG provides opportunities for both importers and exporters in Southeast Asia • Energy investment is a critical issue in Southeast Asia – particularly in power due to demand growth, sustainability challenges and need for regional power integration • Renewables & energy efficiency can help reduce air pollution, CO2 emissions and energy imports, but need best-practice policies for cost reductions and to accelerate deployment • The IEA is assisting ASEAN Member States tackle energy challenges, including through initiatives in 2019 on power system integration and air-conditioner efficiency
  10. 10. © OECD/IEA 2018 www.iea.org IEA