Climate change and health (ANU slides October 2015)
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Two one hour lectures on climate change and health, presented to 1st year medical students (postgrads) at the Australian National University, October 2015
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Climate change and health (ANU slides October 2015)
- 1. CRICOS #00212K October 12, 2015 Prof Colin D Butler Climate change and health ANU Medical School Oct 12, 2015
- 2. CRICOS #00212K Tony McMichael, 2014
- 5. CRICOS #00212K “Tackling climate change could be the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century”
- 6. CRICOS #00212K “The expense may be considerable, but the cost of doing nothing is incalculable” Health in the Greenhouse Editorial (Lancet, 1989) 6
- 7. CRICOS #00212K Outline Basic science of climate change Health effects – 3 levels of effect Next week: what doctors can do
- 8. CRICOS #00212K “…slight change in [the atmosphere’s] constituents….” John Tyndall, 1859 8 Climate change: an old science
- 9. CRICOS #00212K John Tyndall water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane reduce heat loss, oxygen, nitrogen virtually transparent to heat. without these, Earth's surface would be "held fast in the iron grip of frost."
- 10. CRICOS #00212K Earth’s Temperature Chart, since Dinosaur Extinction 65m yrs ago West Antarctic ice sheet begins Arctic ice sheets appear East Antarctic ice sheet begins 60myr 50myr 40myr 30myr 20myr 10myr Now 1961-90 av temp Millions of Years Before Present 12 8 4 0 -4 Tempo C* (vs. 1961-90) 5o C warmer than 1961-90 ? Paleocene * Global temperature, measured at deep ocean 3o C warmer than 1961-90 1.5o C warmer than 1961-90 s s Sea level 25-40 metres higher than now Sea level ~70 metres higher than now Paleocene- Eocene Catastrophe Last 2m yr = ice-age 10
- 11. CRICOS #00212K Last Glaciation CO2 has not been this high in >half a million years. CO2 from fossil fuels, deforestation, agriculture main cause Last interglacial 350 300 250 200 Carbon Dioxide Concentration (ppmv) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Thousands of Years Before Present [Adapted from Figure 6.3, ©IPCC 2007: WG1-AR4] Carbon Dioxide Concentration in Atmosphere over past 650,000 years 280 ppm (‘pre-industrial’) Modern Homo sapiens Agriculture begins, 10K BP Holocene 400 ppm CO2 (2013) 11
- 12. CRICOS #00212K CO2 CH4 N2O 2005 CO2 now CO2 ppm N2O ppb CH4 ppb Year Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) Methane (CH4) “Anthropocene” Concentrations of main greenhouse gases - other than H2O - over past 2,000 years (IPCC 2007) 12
- 13. Number of Years Before Present (quasi-log scale) -2 -3 -4 -5 3 2 1 0 Agriculture emerges Mesopotamia flourishes End of last ice age glaciation Younger Dryas event (rapid re-cooling) Little Ice Age in Europe (14th-19th centuries) Holocene Optimum Global Temperature: Past 20,000 Years; Next 100 Years Temp. change (ºC) 10,000 2,000 1,000 300 100 Now +10020,000 Medieval Warm in Europe (& drying in Central America) Av. temp. over past 10,000 yrs =15 ºC 1940 -6 Dark Ages in Europe White wine grown in Sth England 4 Vikings in Greenland Rome ascendant 1975
- 14. Most radiation absorbed by Earth, warming it Most radiation absorbed by Earth, warming it Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared waves Some energy is radiated back into space as infrared waves The strength of the sun varies a littleThe strength of the sun varies a little Aerosols: net cooling effect Aerosols: net cooling effect Feedback - additional GHGs Some outgoing infrared radiation trapped by atmosphere, warming it Some outgoing infrared radiation trapped by atmosphere, warming it
- 15. CRICOS #00212K CH4 CO2 Green house gases N2O Sulfate particles Radiative forcing NO2 CH4 O3 CH4 CH4 CO2 Slide adapted from one courtesy Prof Steffen Loft, University of Copenhagen, Denmark wetlands, rice, tundra, biomass burning, deforestation CO2 CH4, black carbon CO2 15
- 16. CRICOS #00212KCRICOS #00212K IPCC, Wkg Gp 1 Report, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, p. 703 anthropogenic forcings How valid are Global Climate Models (for predicting future change?)
- 17. CRICOS #00212K Physical effects of climate change Heat Cold? Storms Rainfall changes Sea level rise Ocean acidification
- 18. CRICOS #00212K
- 19. CRICOS #00212K Average global land ocean temp 0.88°C > 20th century average of 15.6°C, hottest August in 136-year record, 0.09°C higher than previous record (2014) https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201508
- 20. CRICOS #00212Khttp://www.attn.com/stories/2621/middle-east-heat-wave-climate-change July 30, 2015 “heat dome”
- 21. CRICOS #00212K
- 22. CRICOS #00212K Australia: Getting Hotter from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010 60 50 40 30 20 10 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year Data source: Bureau of Meteorology Average number of record hot days per year, by decade No. of record hot days [max temperature] at Australian climate reference stations, 1960-2009 No. of record hot days
- 23. CRICOS #00212K Australia: Getting Less Cold from: CSIRO/BoM State of the Climate, March 2010 No. of record cold days [max daily temperature] at Australian climate reference stations, 1960-2009 Average number of record cold days per year, by decade 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 40 30 20 10 Data source: Bureau of Meteorology No. of record cold days
- 24. CRICOS #00212K 1. Thermal expansion 2. Melting land ice – Greenland, Antarctica 3. Other glaciers (eg Alaska, Himalayas) 4. Partly offset by dams
- 25. CRICOS #00212K Global mean sea level (mm) Hay et al, Nature, 2015
- 26. CRICOS #00212K Observed global mean sea level and derived instantaneous sea level rise Global Environmental Outlook – not peer reviewed
- 27. CRICOS #00212K Outline Health effects – 3 levels of effect
- 29. CRICOS #00212K Prof Colin D Butler Climate change and health (2/2) ANU Medical School Oct 19, 2015 Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image)
- 30. CRICOS #00212K Typhoon Haiyan, Tacloban, The Philippines Strongest recorded storm to make landfall Direct death toll: >5,000 Displaced: >4 million Total Burden of Disease? Fraction attributable to climate change? 30
- 31. CRICOS #00212K A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14 Country: PHILIPPINES Tacloban Mayor: <100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes built, (7m storm surges destroyed around 90% of city) “The nephew of Imelda Marcos did not mention graft as factor in one of Asia's most corrupt countries” 31
- 32. CRICOS #00212K 32 A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said. Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam
- 33. CRICOS #00212K http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/ Tyhhoon Koppu, The Philippines, 18/10/2015
- 34. CRICOS #00212K Interaction, warm air helps trap Koppu for a number of days ... 1 metre rain forecast
- 35. CRICOS #00212K
- 36. CRICOS #00212K “surges exceeding 11m in Tampa and 7m in Dubai .. non-negligible probabilities, especially towards end of century.”
- 37. CRICOS #00212K Heat waves, fewer cold waves, injuries, floods, fires Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure secondary primary tertiary Health effects of eco-climate-social stress famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure 3737 Mentalhealth
- 38. CRICOS #00212K Miami: especially vulnerable to sea level rise
- 39. CRICOS #00212K Paris, Heatwave (2003): Daily Mean Temps and Deaths 30 Mean daily temp, 2003 Mean daily temp 1999- 2002 ~12 o C above season norm 25 15 o C 20 35 o C ~900 extra deaths during heatwave 350 300 250 200 150 100 0 Daily deaths 50 van den Torren, 2004 +8o C +12o C Daily deaths: 2003 1999-2002 ~100 extra deaths June …..……………… July …………………. ………… August ……….
- 40. CRICOS #00212K40 Ambulance attendances: heat-related illnesses Metropolitan Melbourne heatwave, 2009 Victorian Dept of Health Elderly at most risk: vulnerable to exacerbation of chronic illness?
- 41. CRICOS #00212K Night-time Day-time ‘Heat Island” Effect: Melbourne, Australia Heatwave, Jan 2009 From: M Loughnan, Monash University
- 42. CRICOS #00212K Heat-Related Mortality in India: Excess All-Cause Mortality Associated with the 2010 Ahmedabad Heat Wave (Azhar et al, 2014) (adapted) May 1-31 Max temp 2010 Max temp 2009-and 2011 42 Daily deaths 2009 & 2011, 2010
- 43. CRICOS #00212K
- 44. CRICOS #00212K Infectious diseases, especially vector borne, allergies, air pollutants, infrastructure secondary Health effects of eco-climate-social stress 4444 Mentalhealth
- 46. CRICOS #00212K Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Ebi et al., 2005 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Bulawayo Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low High probability Medium probability Low probability Harare Highland s
- 47. CRICOS #00212KEbi et al., 2005 Bulawayo Harare Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
- 48. CRICOS #00212KEbi et al., 2005 Bulawayo Harare Baseline 2000 2025 2050 Climate Change and Malaria Potential transmission in Zimbabwe Climate suitability: red = high; blue/green = low
- 49. CRICOS #00212K Malaria in Papua New Guinea Old location New location courtesy Prof Ivo Mueller: Institute of Medical Research, PNG 49
- 50. CRICOS #00212K Dengue’s principal vector: Aedes aegypti
- 51. CRICOS #00212K Effects of Temperature Rise on Dengue Transmission Faster viral incubation in mosquito Shorter mosquito breeding cycle Increased mosquito feeding frequency More efficient transmission of dengue virus from mosquito to human
- 52. CRICOS #00212K Map-projection of changes to rainfall across Australia to 2100 under ‘dry’ and ‘wet’ scenarios. Using evidence from published literature, modelled how these changes would affect dengue distribution over space and time. Areas suitable for dengue transmission in 2100 under 4 climate change scenarios (grey = ≥50% likelihood of transmission) Bambrick et al., 2009, Global Hlth Action 4. Warm (strong mitigation)3. Hot & Wet 2. Hot, Median humidity1. Hot & Dry
- 53. CRICOS #00212K 1998 line of northern limit has moved north during ensuing 8 years. 1950 line from surveillance by U.S. occupation army. Confirmed city Non-confirmed 1998 2000 100 Km 1950 2006 Northern range of Ae. albopictus in Tohoku district, Japan Tokyo Courtesy of: Dr Mutsuo Kobayashi N 2003
- 54. CRICOS #00212K 1980s 1990s Based on: Lindgren, et. al. 2000 Sweden: Tick-Borne encephalitis Spread of Ixodes ricinus tick to higher latitudes (and altitudes) Warmer winters
- 55. CRICOS #00212K Bats (pteropid species) colonising urban environments Habitat loss, new-habitat attraction, climate change Potential source of many new viruses Nipah, Ebola, Hendra, …
- 56. CRICOS #00212K tertiary Health effects of eco-climate-social stress famine, conflict, pop’n displacement, refugees, development failure 5656 Mentalhealth
- 57. CRICOS #00212K Prevalence of Stunting in Children Under 5 years (2005) Black et al, Lancet 2008 57 Stunted children 57
- 58. CRICOS #00212K Photo- synthetic activity 20o C 30o C 40o C Food Yields: General Relationship of Temperature and Photosynthesis 0% 100% e.g.: Field & Lobell. Environ Res Lett, 2007: Globally averaged estimate: +0.5o C reduces crop yields by 3-5%. +2o C +2o C Plus: •Flood/storm/fire damage •Droughts – range, severity •Pests (climate-sensitive) •Diseases (ditto)
- 59. CRICOS #00212K Climate change will impair farm production in many poor countries and regions Modelled % change in agricultural production due to climate change, 2080 Source: Cline WR, 2007: Global warming and agriculture: Impact estimates by country. Washington, D.C.: Center for Global Development, Peterson Institute for International Economics (cited in von Braun J (IFPRI), 2007 < -25% > + 25% 0 to 5% NA -15 to -5% LESS MORE - 5 to 0% 5 to 15% 15 to 25% -25 to -15%
- 60. CRICOS #00212K decline in price due to Green Revolution oil, speculation, rice panic extreme events World food price index (deflated) (1961-2015) (data FAO)
- 61. CRICOS #00212K Climate change will 'lead to battles for food', says head of World Bank (April 2014) Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a coherent plan in the fight against climate change 61
- 62. CRICOS #00212K 1989: Lancet editorial: foreshadows conflict 2011: Jarvis et al: "Climate change, ill health, and conflict." BMJ 342: 777-778. 2014: Stern, N. “Climate change is here now and it could lead to global conflict.” The Guardian Conflict and climate change 62
- 63. CRICOS #00212K “a risk multiplier”
- 64. CRICOS #00212K Water scarcity Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage • climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger • armed conflict, current/recent From UK Ministry of Defence [May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture] Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions
- 65. CRICOS #00212KPNAS - 2015
- 66. CRICOS #00212K
- 67. CRICOS #00212K Damascus, 2014. Line for food aid from UN Relief and Works Agency in a great city - large parts of which have been destroyed by civil war, along with basic food supply infrastructure
- 68. CRICOS #00212K Burden of Disease (proportion) Year widely accepted now 2050? PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity) SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies) TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”) famine, conflict, large- scale migration, economic collapse 68
- 69. CRICOS #00212K Attribution For want of a nail the shoe was lost For want of a shoe the horse was lost For want of a horse the rider was lost For want of a rider the battle was lost For want of a battle the kingdom was lost And all for the want of a horseshoe nail 1390 C.E. “Prisoners of the Proximate: Loosening the Constraints on Epidemiology in an Age of Change”
- 70. CRICOS #00212K Trenberth, 2011: Climate change attribution - null hypothesis: no human role “science community much too conservative .. too many authors make Type II errors” (accept the null hypothesis in error) – ie conclude any particular extreme event has no anthropogenic (human) component” 70 “Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities” WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–9 30. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- 71. CRICOS #00212K Oreskes & Conway (2013): “Western scientists built an intellectual culture based on the premise that it was worse to fool oneself into believing in something that did not exist than not to believe in something that did. Scientists referred to these positions as “type I” and “type II” errors, and established protocols designed to avoid type I errors at almost all costs”. 71 Type 1 error spectrum Type 2 conservative? risky? precautionary? risky?
- 73. CRICOS #00212K Panic, despair, or indifference 73 “Polyanna” “Social vaccine” spectrum
- 75. CRICOS #00212K75 “Peak health” President Royal Society 2005-2010
- 76. CRICOS #00212K 76 “The dangerous impacts of climate change can only be discussed in terms of nonlinear behavior.’’ Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
- 77. CRICOS #00212K “Coal is good for humanity”
- 79. CRICOS #00212K me my nephew a baby 79
- 80. CRICOS #00212K This changes everything – Naomi Klein 80
- 81. CRICOS #00212K Crisis = opportunity 81
- 82. CRICOS #00212K Ingenuity in the Year without a summer (1816) 82
- 84. CRICOS #00212K
- 85. CRICOS #00212K
- 87. CRICOS #00212K87
- 88. CRICOS #00212K Solar Power Will Become Cheaper Than Coal By 2017 HuffPost India | By Anirvan Ghosh Posted: 14/05/2015 16:12 IST Updated: 21/05/2015 14:45 IST
- 89. CRICOS #00212K He Had a dream 89
- 91. CRICOS #00212K
- 92. CRICOS #00212K Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warming April 28, 2015
Notes de l'éditeur
- Not a young science http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Tyndall/ Tyndall&apos;s experiments also showed that molecules of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and ozone are the best absorbers of heat radiation, and that even in small quantities, these gases absorb much more strongly than the atmosphere itself. He concluded that among the constituents of the atmosphere, water vapor is the strongest absorber of radiant heat and is therefore the most important gas controlling Earth&apos;s surface temperature. He said, without water vapor, the Earth&apos;s surface would be &quot;held fast in the iron grip of frost.&quot; He later speculated on how fluctuations in water vapor and carbon dioxide could be related to climate change.
- SECTION 1a – CLIMATE CHANGE Notes made after discussion with Tony McMichael 11 September 2008 Ratio of impact of CO2 to other gases is 5/6 N.B. The relation of CO2 and other greenhouse gases – the CO2 equivalent is the impact of CO2 and the other important greenhouse gases – so with the impact of other gases the CO2 equivalent we’ve already reached is higher than the level of CO2 would suggest – actual level of CO2 is about 390 ppm, but with the effect of methane and nitrous oxide equivalent to approx. 455 ppm Sources of methane – agriculture, mining (coal seam gas, burnt off over oil platforms etc.), refuse tips Source of nitrous oxide – mainly agriculture
- Hay, C.C., Morrow, E., Kopp, R.E. & Mitrovica, J.X. 2015. Probabilistic reanalysis of twentieth-century sea-level rise. Nature, 517, 481-484. Figure 2 | Time series of GMSL for the period 1900–2010. Shown are estimates of GMSL based on KS (blue line), GPR (black line), Church and White4 (magenta line) and Jevrejeva et al.3 (red line). Shaded regions show61s pointwise uncertainty. Inset, trends for 1901–90 and 1993–2010, and accelerations, all with 90% CI. Confidence intervals for Church and White4 are from refs 7 and 23. Confidence intervals were not available for Jevrejeva et al.3; data in this reference ends in 2002, so the rate quoted here for 1993–2010 is actually for 1993–2002. Since the GPR methodology outputs decadal sea level, no trend is estimated for 1993–2010. Accelerations are consistently estimated from the KS, GPR, and GMSL time series in refs 3 and 4 (see Methods) from 1901 to the end of each reconstruction.
- 10-minute sustained wind speed of 230 kilometers per hour Nguyen, P., S. Sellars, A. Thorstensen, Y. Tao, H. Ashouri, D. Braithwaite, K. Hsu and S. Sorooshian (2014). &quot;Satellites track precipitation of Super Typhoon Haiyan.&quot; Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 95(16): 133-135.
- A year on, typhoon-devastated Philippine city fails to rebuild homes Date: 29-Oct-14Country: PHILIPPINESAuthor: Manuel Mogato http://planetark.org/wen/72387 The mayor of the central Philippine city worst hit by a super typhoon a year ago said on Tuesday fewer than 100 of 14,500 promised permanent homes had been built and that thousands were still living in danger zones. Typhoon Haiyan wiped out or damaged practically everything in its path as it swept ashore on Nov. 8, 2013, with seven-meter storm surges destroying around 90 percent of the city of Tacloban in Leyte province. Haiyan killed or left missing close to 8,000 people and displaced as many as four million. &quot;Building more permanent homes is very slow and takes time. Hopefully, by January next year, the pace will pick up,&quot; Mayor Alfred Romualdez, nephew of the Philippines&apos; former first lady, Imelda Marcos, told reporters. He blamed the lack of suitable land where houses which could withstand 250-kph (155-mph) winds could be built but said he hoped the 14,500 homes would be completed by 2017. &quot;There are still 3,000 people in danger zones, many in tents and we want them all transferred to transitional shelters by next month,&quot; Romualdez said. &quot;...One year after typhoon Haiyan, we are back but only about 50 percent,&quot; he said, saying the recovery effort was slowed down by bureaucracy, shortage of manpower and resources and other delays. Construction materials, like galvanized iron sheets, were also scarce, he said, forcing people to use fallen coconut trees to build temporary shelters. Romualdez did not mention graft as a factor in one of Asia&apos;s most corrupt countries. The Philippines came in at 94 out of 175 countries in Transparency International&apos;s corruption perceptions index last year. The Aquino government has a six-year 170 billion pesos ($3.80 billion) master plan to rebuild devastated areas, building about 200,000 homes and providing more sustainable jobs for 2.6 million people who living below the poverty line. (Editing by Nick Macfie)
- The complex interaction between these two typhoons and the warm air within these storms helps to build a ridge of high pressure over Taiwan this weekend. It is this ridge that effectively traps typhoon Koppu over the Philippines for a number of days rather than it being able to turn away from the Philippines and out of harm&apos;s way to the South China Sea.
- The complex interaction between these two typhoons and the warm air within these storms helps to build a ridge of high pressure over Taiwan this weekend. It is this ridge that effectively traps typhoon Koppu over the Philippines for a number of days rather than it being able to turn away from the Philippines and out of harm&apos;s way to the South China Sea.
- Carbon sink – climate change – SOD; urbanisation – cultural services Highly indirect .. CONTESTED
- The January 2009 heatwave in Victoria was of unprecedented intensity and duration with maximum temperatures 12–15°C above normal for much of Victoria, whilst Melbourne endured three consecutive days of temperatures above 43°C. The population health impact of this extreme heat event has been assessed by collecting available data from five different sources: assessments by Ambulance Victoria (AV) metropolitan paramedics, locum doctor visits by the Melbourne Medical Deputising Service (MMDS), Public Hospital Emergency Department presentations as collected in the Victorian Emergency Minimum Dataset (VEMD); reportable deaths to the State Coroner’s Office (SCO); and death registrations collated by the Victorian Registry of Births, Deaths and Marriages (BDM). Data for the week of the heatwave, 26 January to 1 February 2009, was compared to the same period in previous year(s). The results of this analysis have shown that there was substantial morbidity and mortality related to the heatwave, with associated demands on health services. The key findings were: Ambulance Victoria metropolitan emergency case load: • a 25% increase in total emergency cases and a 46% increase over the three hottest days • a 34 fold increase in cases with direct heat-related conditions (61% in those 75 years or older); • a 2.8 fold increase in cardiac arrest cases. Locum GP attendances by MMDS: • an almost 4 fold increase in attendances for direct heat‑related conditions (65% in those 75 years or older); • an almost 2 fold increase in calls to attend a deceased person. Emergency Department presentations: • a 12% overall increase in presentations, with a greater proportion of acutely ill patients and a 37% increase in those 75 years or older; • an 8 fold increase in direct heat-related presentations (46% in those aged 75 years and over); • an almost 3 fold increase in patients dead on arrival (69% being 75 years or older). Total all-cause mortality: • There were 374 excess deaths over what would be expected: a 62% increase in total all-cause mortality. The total number of deaths was 980, compared to a mean of 606 for the previous 5 years. The greatest number of deaths occurred in those 75 years or older, representing a 64% increase; • Included in these total deaths were 179 deaths reported to the State Coroner’s Office; a 77% increase from the 101 deaths reported for the same period in 2008. Reportable deaths in those 65 years and older more than doubled. Mortality during heatwaves can be difficult to measure, as deaths tend to occur from exacerbations of chronic medical conditions as well as direct heat related illness, particularly in the frail and elderly. Excess mortality provides a measure of impact, but does not provide information specifically on underlying cause of death. This report provides a snapshot of a significant impact on mortality, morbidity and health service utilisation, with the greater burden of illness and death falling on the elderly. The insights gained will inform strategies already being developed to improve the resilience of Victorian communities to the impacts of extreme heat events.
- Carbon sink – climate change – SOD; urbanisation – cultural services Highly indirect .. CONTESTED
- Down-scaled modelling, at national level, of future zone of potential transmission of malaria in Zimbabwe, under a standard scenario of climate change. Model is hybrid statistical-biological model, applied to probabilistic (‘fuzzy logic’) estimation. Model results do not tell us where the disease WILL be, but where it COULD be – and that has important implications for future data collection, surveillance, and field control programs (and expenses).
- Carbon sink – climate change – SOD; urbanisation – cultural services Highly indirect .. CONTESTED
- Figure shows the distribution of stunting in children. Relatively high levels of stunting are seen throughout the SEARO region along with regions in Africa. (there is an accompanying slide in Black et al of stunting in India, by region) – INCLUDED IN SUPLEMENTARY SLIDES (NOT THE LEAST BECAUSE IT IS SO APPALLING) Figure 2 from Black et al., 2008.
- Climate change will &apos;lead to battles for food&apos;, says head of World Bank Jim Yong Kim urges campaigners and scientists to work together to form a coherent plan in the fight against climate change Share 4251 24 inShare90 Email Larry Elliott, economics editor The Guardian, Friday 4 April 2014 07.02 AEST Jump to comments (306) As Jim Yong Kim warned of the risks of climate change, the UN said food prices had risen to their highest in almost a year. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters Battles over water and food will erupt within the next five to 10 years as a result of climate change, the president of the World Bank said as he urged those campaigning against global warming to learn the lessons of how protesters and scientists joined forces in the battle against HIV. Jim Yong Kim said it was possible to cap the rise in global temperatures at 2C but that so far there had been a failure to replicate the &quot;unbelievable&quot; success of the 15-year-long coalition of activists and scientists to develop a treatment for HIV. The bank&apos;s president – a doctor active in the campaign to develop drugs to treat HIV – said he had asked the climate change community: &quot;Do we have a plan that&apos;s as good as the plan we had for HIV?&quot; The answer, unfortunately, was no. &quot;Is there enough basic science research going into renewable energy? Not even close. Are there ways of taking discoveries made in universities and quickly moving them into industry? No. Are there ways of testing those innovations? Are there people thinking about scaling [up] those innovations?&quot; Interviewed ahead of next week&apos;s biannual World Bank meeting, Kim added: &quot;They [the climate change community] kept saying, &apos;What do you mean a plan?&apos; I said a plan that&apos;s equal to the challenge. A plan that will convince anyone who asks us that we&apos;re really serious about climate change, and that we have a plan that can actually keep us at less than 2C warming. We still don&apos;t have one. &quot;We&apos;re trying to help and we find ourselves being more involved then I think anyone at the bank had predicted even a couple of years ago. We&apos;ve got to put the plan together.&quot; Kim said there were four areas where the bank could help specifically in the fight against global warming: finding a stable price for carbon; removing fuel subsidies; investing in cleaner cities; and developing climate-smart agriculture. Improved access to clean water and sanitation was vital, he added, as he predicted that tension over resources would result from inaction over global warming. &quot;The water issue is critically related to climate change. People say that carbon is the currency of climate change. Water is the teeth. Fights over water and food are going to be the most significant direct impacts of climate change in the next five to 10 years. There&apos;s just no question about it. &quot;So getting serious about access to clean water, access to sanitation is a very important project. Water and sanitation has not had the same kind of champion that global health, and even education, have had.&quot; The World Bank president admitted that his organisation had made mistakes in the past, including a belief that people in poor countries should pay for healthcare. He warned that a failure to tackle inequality risked social unrest. &quot;There&apos;s now just overwhelming evidence that those user fees actually worsened health outcomes. There&apos;s no question about it. So did the bank get it wrong before? Yeah. I think the bank was ideological.&quot; The bank has almost doubled its lending capacity to $28bn (£17bn) a year with the aim of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030 and spreading the benefits of prosperity to the poorest 40% in developing countries. &quot;What we have found is that because of smartphones and access to media, and because everybody knows how everyone else lives, you have no idea where the next huge social movement is going to erupt. &quot;It&apos;s going to erupt to a great extent because of these inequalities. So what I hear from heads of state is a much, much deeper understanding of the political dangers of very high levels of inequality,&quot; he said. &quot;Now that we have good evidence that suggests that working on more inclusive growth strategies actually improves overall growth, that&apos;s our job.&quot; Kim said he was shaking up the bank&apos;s structure so that it could lend more effectively and to end a culture in which the organisation&apos;s staff did not talk to each other. Instead of being organised solely on a geographic basis, the bank will now pool its expertise across sectors such as health, education and transport so that ideas could be shared across national borders. The bank&apos;s private-sector arm, the International Finance Corporation, will be encouraged to work with the public-sector arm. Kim said the changes had come about because knowledge was not flowing through the organisation. &quot;We were working at six regional banks. The six regional banks were working pretty well, but there was not the sense that there was any innovation in tackling a problem – that if you went to the World Bank you&apos;d have access to that innovation.&quot;
- Anonymous (1989). &quot;Health in the greenhouse.&quot; Lancet 333: 819-820. Jarvis, L., H. Montgomery, N. Morisetti and I. Gilmore (2011). &quot;Climate change, ill health, and conflict.&quot; BMJ 342: 777-778.
- Kelley, C.P., Mohtadi, Shahrzad., Cane, Mark.A. Seager, Richard, and Kushnir, Yochanan., 2015. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (USA).
- WN - Syria
- Fig. 26.2. This conceptual diagram compares the likely burden of disease from the primary, secondary and tertiary effects of climate change with the time at which the effects are likely to be widely accepted as causally related by the general and even the scientific community. Two major European heatwaves since 2000 (France and Russia) killed over 100,000 people. Both extreme events are likely to have been contributed to by climate change. Secondary effects, such as changes to vector-borne diseases, probably have a lower burden of disease. There has been greater scientific resistance to their reality, but this is fading. Tertiary effects such as the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the conflicts in Sudan and Syria are still regarded as speculative by most people, including most scientists. These events have the potential to cause a burden of disease at least of an order of magnitude higher than the others. Waiting for complete consensus is to wait too long.
- Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). &quot;The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future.&quot; Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- Past attribution studies of climate change have assumed a null hypothesis of no role of human activities. The challenge, then, is to prove that there is an anthropogenic component. I argue that because global warming is unequivocal and very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. The task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142 Oreskes, N. and E. M. Conway (2013). &quot;The collapse of Western civilization: a view from the future.&quot; Daedalus 142(1): 40-58. Trenberth, 2011: Past CC attribution studies assumed null hypothesis (no human role ) Challenge, therefore to prove anthropogenic component. .. CC unequivocal .. very likely caused by human activities, the reverse should now be the case. task, then, could be to prove there is no anthropogenic component to a particular observed change in climate, although a more useful task is to determine what it is. In Bayesian statistics, this change might be thought of as adding a prior. The benefit of doubt and uncertainties about observations and models are then switched. Moreover, the science community is much too conservative on this issue and too many authors make what are called Type II errors whereby they erroneously accept the null hypothesis. Global warming is contributing to a changing incidence of extreme weather because the environment in which all storms form has changed from human activities. WIREs Clim Change 2011, 2:925–930. doi: 10.1002/wcc.142
- Mossman, K. 2008. Profile of Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science USA, 105, 1783-1785.
- Sharot T, Korn CW, Dolan RJ. How unrealistic optimism is maintained in the face of reality. Nature Neuroscience. 2011; 14: 1475-9. Sharot T. The Optimism Bias. New York: Pantheon Books; 2011. Sharot T, Riccardi AM, Raio CM, Phelps EA. Neural mechanisms mediating optimism bias. Nature. 2007; 450: 102-5. http://thesituationist.wordpress.com/2007/10/26/neural-origins-of-optimism/ “This time it’s different” – the life cycle of of hope ... and disappointment Emerging risk - elements A “social vaccine” – or is it fruitless?
- Figure SPM.7: CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for (a) change in global annual mean surface temperature relative to 1986–2005 (see Table SPM.2 for other reference periods), (b) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent (5 year running mean) and (c) global mean ocean surface pH. Time series of projections and a measure of uncertainty (shading) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical reconstructed forcings. The mean and associated uncertainties averaged over 2081−2100 are given for all RCP scenarios as colored vertical bars. The numbers of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated.
- Figure SPM.7: CMIP5 multi-model simulated time series from 1950 to 2100 for (a) change in global annual mean surface temperature relative to 1986–2005 (see Table SPM.2 for other reference periods), (b) Northern Hemisphere September sea ice extent (5 year running mean) and (c) global mean ocean surface pH. Time series of projections and a measure of uncertainty (shading) are shown for scenarios RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red). Black (grey shading) is the modelled historical evolution using historical reconstructed forcings. The mean and associated uncertainties averaged over 2081−2100 are given for all RCP scenarios as colored vertical bars. The numbers of CMIP5 models used to calculate the multi-model mean is indicated.
- Wide-angle satellite image showing Super Typhoon Haiyan approach the Philippines on November 7, 2013.Credit: EUMETSAT http://www.climatecentral.org/news/globe-saw-a-record-number-of-billion-dollar-disasters-in-2013-17037
- Is &quot;danger&quot; plus &quot;opportunity&quot; equal &quot;crisis&quot; in Chinese?Is the Chinese symbol crisis made up of &quot;danger&quot; and &quot;opportunity&quot; as is often quoted? First of all, the Chinese symbol crisis is not one symbol but two. The symbols for crisis in Chinese are made up of these two words: They are pronounced wei1 ji1. wei means &quot;danger; peril&quot;. And ji means &quot;opportunity; crucial point&quot; So literally wei plus ji equals &quot;danger&quot; plus &quot;oportunity&quot;. However in reality, a crisis is still a dangerous state of affairs - regardless of the language. Crisis wei ji still means &quot;a situation that has reached an extremely difficult or dangerous point&quot;. However, a dangerous situation can become an opportunity if wei ji becomes zhuan3 ji1.Zhuan ji means &quot;turn for the better&quot;. Zhuan means &quot;turn into&quot;. So zhuan ji means &quot;turn into opportunity&quot;. In this sense, the Chinese symbol crisis can mean &quot;opportunity&quot; in a time of &quot;danger&quot;. wei ji is commonly used as in wei1 ji1 gan3 meaning &quot;sense of crisis&quot; and wei1 ji1 si4 fu2 meaning &quot;beset with danger; danger lurking in every direction&quot;.
- An inability to feed livestock and the high price of oats (the preferred food of horses!) led Karl Drais, a German inventor, to create a method of horseless transportation, the laufmaschine. Drais&apos; &quot;running machine&quot; is a prototype for the modern bicycle that lacks pedals and relies on the rider to start off with a trot and then ride once sufficient speed is obtained.
- One factor making the challenges more severe is the major participation in the global system of giant nations whose populations have not previously enjoyed the fossil energy abundance that brought Western countries and Japan to positions of affluence. Now they are poised to repeat the West’s energy ‘success’, and on an even greater scale. India alone, which recently suffered a gigantic blackout affecting 300 million people, is planning to bring 455 new coal plants on line. Worldwide more than 1200 plants with a total installed capacity of 1.4 million megawatts are planned [76], much of that in China, where electricity demand is expected to skyrocket. The resultant surge in greenhouse gases will interact with the increasing diversion of grain to livestock, stimulated by the desire for more meat in the diets of Indians, Chinese and others in a growing global middle class.
- http://www.saskwind.ca/blogbackend/2014/9/17/wind-solar-cost-declines-renewables-growth
- https://www.google.com.au/search?q=Tesla%27s+Powerwall&biw=1920&bih=950&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ei=7AFHVfi1IMK4mAWxxYDIAw&ved=0CAYQ_AUoAQ#imgrc=naTB6IIlI9D8uM%253A%3BCxr_fp8gCRRjUM%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Ficdn3.digitaltrends.com%252Fimage%252Ftesla-powerwall-7-970x548-c.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fwww.digitaltrends.com%252Fhome%252Ftesla-energy-is-the-companys-line-of-batteries%252F%3B970%3B546
- http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/28/vatican-climate-change-summit-to-highlight-moral-duty-for-action Vatican official calls for moral awakening on global warming At climate change summit Cardinal Peter Turkson warns on burning of fossil fuels, in a likely precursor to highly anticipated encyclical on the environment Pope Francis shakes hands with the UN secretary general, Ban Ki-moon, during a meeting at the Vatican. Photograph: Osservatore Romano/Reuters Stephanie Kirchgaessner in Vatican City Tuesday 28 April 2015 23.30 AEST Last modified on Wednesday 29 April 2015 20.12 AEST Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share via Email Share on LinkedIn Share on Google+ Shares 13,194 Increasing use of fossil fuels is disrupting Earth on an “almost unfathomable scale”, a top Vatican official has said, warning that a “full conversion” of hearts and minds is needed if global warming is to be conquered. The statement by Cardinal Peter Turkson, Pope Francis’s point man for peace and justice issues, was made at a Vatican summit on Tuesday, which focused on climate change and poverty. His call for a moral awakening of politicians and people of faith is a likely precursor to the highly anticipated encyclical on the environment, which was drafted by Turkson and which Pope Francis is expected to release in June. “In our recklessness, we are traversing some of the planet’s most fundamental natural boundaries,” warned Turkson. “And the lesson from the Garden of Eden still rings true today: pride, hubris, self-centredness are always perilous, indeed destructive. The very technology that has brought great reward is now poised to bring great ruin.” Ban Ki-moon, the United Nations secretary-general who delivered the keynote address at the summit, said he believed the pope’s encyclical – coupled with the pontiff’s planned speeches before the UN general assembly and a joint session of the US Congress – would have a profound impact on climate change negotiations. “[The encyclical] will convey to the world that protecting our environment is an urgent moral imperative and a sacred duty for all people of faith and people of conscience,” Ban said. While he declined to comment on any details of the encyclical following his morning meeting with the Argentinean pontiff – the document has already been written and is being translated – he said he was counting on the pope’s “moral voice and moral leadership” to help accelerate talks. Pope Francis’s September address will be the first time any pope has spoken before a special session of the general assembly. Advertisement Both Turkson and Ban emphasised that scientists and people of faith were united in their call for action. “Science and religion are not at odds on climate change. Indeed, they are fully aligned. Together, we must clearly communicate that the science of climate change is deep, sound and not in doubt,” Ban said. Turkson called on leaders of all faiths to be good role models. “Think of the positive message it would send for churches, mosques, synagogues, and temples all over the world to become carbon neutral,” he said. “At a time like this, the world is looking to faith leaders for guidance. This is why Pope Francis has chosen to issue an encyclical on protecting the environment at this unique moment in time.” The Protect the Earth, Dignify Humanity meeting has brought about a rare meeting of minds between scientists and religious officials on climate change, even if they frame their arguments in different ways. Teresa Berger, a professor at the Yale Divinity School, said she believed the encyclical would have an overarching theological vision – one of “a God-sustained universe, anchored in a theology of creation as articulated in the biblical witness. And based on this, Pope Francis will probably not mince words, but note as evil, for example, the sin of exploiting the Earth.” Francis has already said he believes global warming is mostly manmade and that a Christian who does not protect God’s creation “is a Christian who does not care about the work of God”. He has also linked environmental exploitation to social and economic inequality, saying: “An economic system centred on the god of money needs to plunder nature to sustain the frenetic rhythm of consumption that is inherent to it.” Activists hope the summit and the encyclical will influence the next round of international negotiations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which will take place in Paris in November. The pope, whose foray into diplomacy helped spur negotiations between the US and Cuba, is expected to address the topic in a speech before the UN in New York in September. Some conservatives in the US, where the Republican party has fiercely resisted attempts to regulate greenhouse gases and questioned the scientific consensus on global warming, have criticised the pope for getting involved in the issue. “Francis sullies his office by using demagogic formulations to bully the populace into reflexive climate action with no more substantive guide than theologised propaganda,” Maureen Mullarkey wrote in First Things, a conservative journal. Another conservative group, the Heartland Institute, which seeks to discredit established science on global warming, held its own meeting in Rome on Monday – and will hold a second on Tuesday – in which officials derided the pope for taking on the issue. Heartland Institute takes climate foolishness to a Biblical level Read more “You demean the office that you hold and you demean the church whom it is your sworn duty to protect and defend and advance,” said Lord Christopher Monckton, a prominent climate sceptic and former policy adviser to the former British prime minister, Margaret Thatcher. Monckton’s opinions have been refuted by scientists, who have called his statements “very misleading” and “profoundly wrong”. The summit at the Vatican has been organised by the Pontifical Academy of Sciences, and its stated goal is to help “elevate the importance of the moral dimensions of protecting the environment in advance of the papal encyclical and to build a global movement to deal with climate change and sustainable development”.