Conductor C3 - Influence. Not Influencers - Rand Fishkin, SparkToro

Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Influence.
Not Influencers.
As web marketing undergoes its biggest shift in a decade,
how we influence audiences needs to evolve.

Influencer Marketing
Discover all the sources that influence your audience.
Do marketing (of all kinds) in those places.
2012

Influencer Marketing
Pay half naked people on Instagram
to post a photo with your product.
2019

WhyisInfluencerMarketingGettingAlltheAttention?
ViaGoogleTrends

AndSoMuchInvestment?
ChartviaMediaKix
*EstimateviaMozcirca2018
For comparison, SEO spend globally is ~$20-30B*

IMO,DataLikeThisCreatesIrrationalBias
ViaPew
Instead of “Where are *our* customers?”,
Too many marketers ask “Which platform’s biggest?”

Potential Sources of Influence:
Podcasts
Events
Mainstream Media
Trade Journals
Whitepapers
Radio
Television
Guerilla Marketing
Branded Publications
Blogs
Twitter
YouTube Channels
Industry Reports
Facebook GroupsWeb Searches
Email Newsletters
Consumer Review Pubs
Instagram

Where “Influencer Marketing” is Done:
Podcasts
Events
Mainstream Media
Trade Journals
Whitepapers
Radio
Television
Guerilla Marketing
Branded Publications
Blogs
Twitter
YouTube Channels
Industry Reports
Facebook GroupsWeb Searches
Email Newsletters
Consumer Review Pubs
Instagram

ViaPew, Journalism.org,eMarketer,Statista
RealityCheck:Attention&InfluenceHappenEverywhere

• Desktop devices average ~800
distinct pages viewed per
month
• Mobile devices averaged ~300
distinct pages viewed per
month
• Slight decrease in mobile
browser pageviews over time
(possibly cannibalized by apps)
• In March 2019, users viewed
2,350 unique pages on desktop
and 680 unique pages on
mobile (monthly counts in the
graph count multiple visits to
the same URL per month as 1)
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
Jan-16
M
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M
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Avg.#ofPageViews
Average Distinct Pages Viewed Per Device by Month
Mobile Desktop
DespitetheGrowthofApps&DominationofBigTech
Monopolies,theWebRemainsaVibrant,DiverseEcosystem

Where Should We Do Influence Marketing?
Wherever Our Audience Engages.

The Major Shifts Impacting
Search, Social,
Content, & Advertising
And How Marketers Can Best React

Here’s Why That Should Scare
Web Creators…

Google Needs Growth, & It’s Not Coming From New
Searchers (at least in developed countries)
-
5,000,000,000
10,000,000,000
15,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
25,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
35,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
Jan-16
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U.S. Searches by Month (web browsers only)
Google Desktop Google Images Desktop Google Mobile Google Images Mobile

3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand
2:Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries
(e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp)
1:Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time
(sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries)
3:Alternatives to Google are taking market share
(e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon)

Theory 1: Google’s Removing the Need for Multiple
Queries on the Same Topic(s)

They Do This Through Web Result Replacements…

Content Scraping that Precludes a Click-Through

GivingTheirOwn Properties PreferentialTreatment

And More Telepathic, Direct-to-the-Answer Results.

Theory 2: Voice Search & Mobile Apps Are
Cannibalizing Queries
ViaPerficientDigital’s2019Surveyof1,719people

ViaHigherVisibility’s2018Survey
of2,017SmartphoneOwners
Unfortunately, we don’t yet have real data, just
surveys (which, historically, are poor representations
of how people actually behave).

Theory3:AlternativestoGoogleAreTakingMarketShare
-
10,000,000,000
20,000,000,000
30,000,000,000
40,000,000,000
50,000,000,000
60,000,000,000
Jan-16
Feb-16
M
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Apr-16
M
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Jun-16
Jul-16
Aug-16
Sep-16
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Desktop Share of Searches by Month
Google Google Images Google Maps YouTube Bing Yahoo Facebook
Amazon Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia
ViaJumpshot’sclickstreampanelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browserdataonly(noapps)

-
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
Jan-16
M
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Search Volumes by Month Under 2.5B
Bing Yahoo Facebook Amazon Twitter
Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia
-
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
300,000,000
350,000,000
Jan-16
M
ar-16
M
ay-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
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Jul-17
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Jan-19
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Search Volumes by Month Under 350M
Twitter Pinterest DuckDuckGo AOL Ask Wikipedia
ViaJumpshot’sclickstreampanelof10mm+devicesintheUS,browserdataonly(noapps)

Amazon’s Searched ~1/30th as Much as Google, But…
50,000
500,000
5,000,000
50,000 500,000 5,000,000
GOOGLESEARCHES
AMAZON SEARCHES
Search Volumes for Top 1K Branded and Nonbranded Amazon Keywords on Google and Amazon (2018)
Nonbranded Terms Branded Terms Nonbranded Avg Branded Avg
nintendo switch
laptop
headphones
kindle
ps4
bluetooth headphones
prime video
external hard drive
paper towels
iPhone 7 case
cbd oil
water bottle
iPhone charger
food
lingerie
dog
iPhone xr
adidas
aa batteries
roku
mens socks
monitor
christmas
audible
sheets

What About Search on Instagram?
-
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
Jan-16
M
ar-16
M
ay-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
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Instagram Hashtag Clicks by Month (Desktop)
IG’s grown ~2.5X on desktop (at a time when desktop overall
shrank). Still <0.1% of Google’s desktop search volume.

3 Theories of Plateauing Search Demand
2:Voice search and mobile apps are cannibalizing queries
(e.g.GoogleHome,GoogleAssistant,andtheirSearchApp)
1:Google’s getting better at solving searches the first time
(sosearchersdon’tneedtoperformmorequeries)
3:Alternatives to Google are taking market share
(e.g.Facebook,Instagram,DuckDuckGo,YouTube,andAmazon)
These two are probably happening.
The third, not so much.

What’s Google Doing to Grow
Ad Revenue?
#1: Larger numbers
of more subtle ads
#2: More kinds of ads

Google’sDesktopCTRs
March2018(US):
Paid: 6.1%
Organic: 65.3%
No Click
Searches: 34.7%
*Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery

Google’s MobileCTRs September2018(US):
*Note:Sumsaregreaterthan100%assomesearchersclickmultipleresultsperquery
Paid:
9.5%
Organic: 38.4%
No Click Searches:
61.6%

How Do These Changes Affect Searcher Behavior?
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Jan-16
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Desktop Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero Click Searches (2016-2019)
Desktop Organic Clickthroughs Desktop Paid Clicks Desktop Zero Clicks
Desktop Zero-Click Searches
Up ~12% in 3 Years

On Mobile, Those Effects Are Magnified
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19
Mobile Organic CTR, Paid CTR, and Zero-Click Searches (2016-2019)
Mobile Clickthroughs Mobile Paid Clicks Mobile Zero Clicks
Mobile Zero-Click Searches
Up ~20% in 3 Years

Google’s 2019 ABCs:
Biasing Visibility & Clicks to Paid Results
Answering Queries in SERPs & Sending Out Less Traffic
Competing Directly with Publishers
(andrankingtheirownpropertiesaheadofanyoneelse’s)

How Can Search Marketers
React?

Four Ways to Mitigate Search Risk in 2019:
2)Focus on Marketing that Grows Branded Search
1)Influence Searchers On the SERP
4)Re-Prioritize Keyword Targeting to CTR%
3)Use Barnacle SEO When Google Won’t Rank Your Site

Control Your Brand with On-SERP SEO
ID sites that rank in
your space, & build
profiles on them
Claim Your Panels
Leverage the
Rich Snippets
Google Offers

When KWs Show Aggregated
Answers, Influence the
Publishers Below to Get Listed
To Get Into These…
Get Mentioned + Listed In These

Double Down on Branded Demand Creation
CrowdCow’s “Craft Beef” campaign: a book, web content, & events
focused on growing branded demand for their unique product

If Other Sites Can Rank, But You Can’t;
Use Barnacle SEO
Every one of these sites
enables user-submitted
or guest editorial
contributions

Shift SEO-Focused Content to KWs
Google Is Less Likely to Cannibalize
ViaAhrefs

Use CTR % Estimates in Your KW Research
This metric uses clicksteam data
to estimate the % of searchers
who’ll click on the standard,
non-paid, organic SERPs

Social Follower’s Engagement Rates
Have Fallen to Near-Zero
ViaRivalIQ2019

IMO: 10,000 Instagram Followers < 100 Emails
ViaRivalIQ2019

Social
Follower
Email
Address
Avg
Engagement/
Post or Email
Ability to
Retarget?
Reach on
Other
Platforms
Ability to Get
Audience
Data
Direct
Outreach
Possible?
20.81%*
* Via Mailchimp
Yes,Anywhere Yup. Tons. Yes.
1.73%*
Onlyonthat
Network
Nope. Onlywhatthe
networkgivesyou.
No.
* Via RivalIQ

Social’s Traffic is Still Paltry Compared to Search
Via
Google.com
Oct2016
Facebook.com
Reddit.com
YouTube.com
Imgur.com
Bing.com
Wikipedia.org
Gained/Lost
59.2%
6.5%
5.4%
4.5%
2.2%
2.2%
1.4%
Yahoo.com 6.0%
-1.4%
-1.3%
-2.0%
+0.3%
-1.2%
+1.5%
-0.1%
-1.7%
Amazon.com 1.3% +0.1%
TopTrafficReferrers Feb2018
57.8%
5.2%
3.4%
4.8%
1.0%
3.7%
1.3%
4.3%
1.4%

Though It’s Sending a Little More Traffic Than Before

Mostly, That’s FB Groups, Pinterest, & Instagram

Instagram Has Always Prevented Outlinking

Now They May Be Targeting the “Link in Bio”
Via AgoraPulse
AgoraPulse’sexperimentfounda34%decreaseinavg.reachwhenapost
containedthephrase“linkinbio”orsimilar.

YouTube Cuts Off Descriptions to Avoid Making
Links Visible in the Default View

On Mobile… They Hide
Them Entirely

Twitter & LinkedIn Bias Against Posts with Links
Via
MarginallyCoherent

And All of Them Push Content
that Engages > Content That’s
“Shared”
Crazy high impressions…
Relatively few retweets?

The tweets that engage
people ON Twitter >
high metric tweets that
contain links L

How Can Social Marketers
React?

Three Ways to Still Get Value from Social in 2019:
2)Use Social to Build Audiences Who Know & Like You
1)Play to the Networks’ Bias for High Engagement Streaks
3)Drive Branded Search & Clicks w/ Latent vs. Active Links

Engagement Streaks Rule Social
Happy Dance!
Sad Trombone.

Social Algorithms Are Designed to:
Engage
Addict
Retain
Does this content attract users,
generate likes/shares, & hold their
attention?
Do users who see this content
stay on our platform and keep
engaging?
Do users who’ve consumed this
content return to our platform
again & again?

When I have a low engagement
post, my next post has a harder
time reaching a big audience.

When a post gets high
engagement, FB boosts the reach
of my next post (unless it starts to
show poor engagement)

In this way, Facebook (& Twitter,
Instagram, LinkedIn, etc) reward high
engagement streaks and makes
accounts w/ low engagement invisible.

To benefit from
this system, use a
formula like this:
High engagement, non-
promotional post
promotional post
Promotion w/ CTA
promotional post
These earn brand
exposure & new
followers
promotional post

To benefit from
this system, use a
formula like this:
promotional post
promotional post
Promotion w/ CTA
promotional post
These capitalize on
your algorithmic
reputation for high
engagement, & earn
direct traffic
promotional post

Using Social Effectively Builds Brand Familiarity
This is all generic, not-
actionable, next-to-
useless advice L

To Build Brand on
Social, We Need:
2)Contentthatisobviously
connectedtothebrand
1)Contentthatearnshigh
engagement&amplification
3)Contentthatcreatesemotional
resonance(bestdonethrough
compellingstories)

Use Latent vs. Active Links to Your Site
That’s what I’m
talking ‘bout!
That’s no so
bad, either J

Content + Social = Awareness
Awareness + Awesomeness = Conversion

For 15 Years, Content Marketing
Worked Great Like This…

Content
Flywheel
2001-2016
KW Research +
Industry Intuition
Publish
Content
Promote via
Social Channels
Push to email +
RSS subscribers
Earn Links +
Amplification
Grow social, email,
RSS, & WoM channels
Grow Authority &
Brand Recognition
Earn Search &
Referral Traffic
Rank Higher, Get
More Traffic

But, in 2019, Four Forces Work Against This Model
#2Demands for monetization and growth have pushed
tech monopolies to become publishers’ competitors
#1Search Engine & Social Network Algorithms Have
Become Winner Take Most Platforms
#3Amplifiers are overwhelmed by requests and more
skeptical than ever before
#4Traffic quantity correlates less & less with conversions

How Can Content Marketers
React?

How to Make Content Work in 2019
2)Build content like you build product, i.e. deliver unique
value with a competitive advantage to a hungry audience
1)Find the intersection of what resonates with your
customers AND their influencers
3)Use content to earn email subscribers, and drive
conversions from there

Successful Content Targets Topics that Resonate
with Amplifiers, Not Just Customers
What Your
Customers Care
About
What Influential
Publications &
People Your
Customers Listen
To Care About
Topics with
high potential
reach

The Most Visited Piece the NYT Ever Published?
Dialect Quiz Map via NY Times
Grabs you fast, then
demands engagement
Plays to the psychological
desire for categorizing
oneself & others
Creates a viral loop
(through sharing & seeing
friends’ answers)

Content as Product
This interactive piece from Typeform
isn’t just “good content;” it delivers:
Unique value
Reference-worthiness
A view into Typeform’s
competitive advantage
Rise of the Conversational UI via Typeform

Content → Email Subscriber → Conversion
“A visitor who reaches us via search is 1/19th as likely
to subscribe as one who comes in from a
newsletter; a reader coming in from Facebook is
1/12th; and a reader coming in from Twitter is 1/6th.”
-Nicholas Thompson, Editor in Chief
Via Wired

VS.
Visitor
Email
Subscriber
Conversion
~2% ~10%
Visitor Conversion
~0.2%
W
rong!

Visitor Conversion
+
Visitor
Email
Subscriber
Conversion
~0.2%
~2% ~10%
These are additive,
not competitive!

The Late Adopters Are Finally Crossing the
Digital Marketing Chasm
Via Geoffrey Moore
These players have lots of $$$,
entrenched brands, & are used to
overpaying for untrackable advertising

Venture Dollars Are Also Flooding Ad Markets
Via PWC/MoneyTree

Investment Dollars Aren’t Seeking Profits…
Just Growth
Via Statista

Ad Bids in Many Sectors Go Far Above What’s
Profitable

Ad Costs Have Gone Up, While ROI Trends Down
Via BusinessInsider

And Ad Tracking Getting Much Harder
Which Will Reinforce Large Quantities of “Dumb
Money” > More Trackable Advertising
The concept of a 90-day look back
window is a wrap. Retargeting beyond 7
days is dead. Effectively, for a sales cycle of
any realistic length, the whole concept of
attribution outside of last click is over.
Via iPullRank

Influencer Marketing is Even Harder to Track
Via Linqia

And Accountability is a Massive Issue
Via TheDrum
“I do campaigns for brands on a weekly
basis and less than half ever come back for
metrics; less than 50% ever want to know
what’s happened. That makes me think it’s
PRs playing a numbers game and once a
campaign has gone no one is really
interested.”

How Can Ad Professionals
React?

First: Organic + Brand; Then: Ads + CRO
If you’re not yet known, liked,
& trusted, ad ROI sucks.

Via Wordstream
New to a market?
This happens.
Known & loved?
Welcome to Profitville.

If “Branding” and “Awareness” are
your biggest goals… Measure that!
Via Google Trends
Branded Search *IS* a Measurable Number

The Most Followed Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search
Traditional Influencer Marketing Seeks Out:
The Most-Reachable Account(s) that Match a Keyword Search
OR
But That’s Not Really What We Want…

Targeting on Audience Size > Audience Match
4mm followers
Followed by 19% of
profiles that frequently
talk about “supercars”

WhatYouReallyWant:People & Publications Your Audience
Engages With Most
Followed by 16% of
people who frequently
talk about “Italian food”

WhatYouReallyWant:People & Publications Your Audience
Engages With Most
Small overall following, but reaches
exactly who we want to reach!

How to Win at Digital Advertising in 2019
Step 2: Earn brand exposure through organic, social, content,
SEO, events, & targeted brand marketing
Step 3: Get >1 organic visit (or a social engagement)
Step 4: Pay to advertise where your audience engages to
those who already know+like you
Step 1: Interview, survey, or use profile data to discover where
your audiences engage (and with whom/what)

Influence
Let’s Evolve How We Create
Ready?

Rand Fishkin | Founder & CEO
Thank You!
Bit.ly/sparkinfluence2019

Conductor C3 - Influence. Not Influencers - Rand Fishkin, SparkToro

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