Breaking the Poverty trap
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Ronald U. Mendoza, Ph.D.,Asian Institute of Managment: Policy Center slides during the GDN 14th Annual development Conference.
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Breaking the Poverty trap
- 1. Breaking the Poverty Trap Ronald U. Mendoza, Ph.D. Associate Professor of Economics
- 2. Social Protection •An investment rather than mere redistribution… •Strengthens citizenship and social cohesion… •Only temporary: the issue of “graduation”… •Fiscal sustainability… •Mainly addresses the human capital investments for the next generation; but what about the present generation? •Risk of elite capture…
- 3. Source: Figure adapted from Balisacan (2011). Scenarios based on author’s calculations. How growth trickles down? -5 -4.5 -4 -3.5 -3 -2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 Ravallion(2001),41 DevelopingCountries WorldBank(2009),East Asia1990-2006 WorldBank (2009),Thailand1990- 2006 WorldBank (2009),Indonesia1990- 2006 WorldBank (2009),Vietnam1990- 2006 WorldBank (2009),Philippines 1990-2006 BalisacanandFuwa (2004),Philippines 1988-1997 Balisacan (2007),Philippines 1988-2003 Percent change in poverty incidence arising from 1% change in mean income At 3% growth, and at 1.5% poverty elasticity of growth, it will take the Philippines 360 years to eliminate poverty. At 8% growth, and at 1.5% poverty elasticity of growth, it will still take the Philippines 130 years to eliminate poverty. At 10% growth (approximating China’s) and 5% poverty elasticity of growth (approximating Thailand’s), it will take 24 years to eliminate poverty in the Philippines.
- 4. Source: The Economist (2013). Can we eradicate extreme poverty worldwide? Inequality matters… World Bank: a 1% increase in incomes cut poverty by 0.6% in the most unequal countries but by 4.3% in the most equal ones.
- 6. Some elements of inclusiveness? •Inclusive human capital investments (the starting point)… •Building resilience in a crisis-prone world… •Sustainable growth: shifting from (primarily) extractive and rent-based growth to innovation and productivity based growth… •Competition and industrial policies: striking the balance (over time) between state and market; and between large and small enterprises – while preserving equity, efficiency and stability aspirations of society
Notes de l'éditeur
- Young pupils in the Philippines risk their lives to get to school on time. ADB picture available here: http://www.adb.org/news/photo-essay/click-capturing-images-inclusive-growth
- At 3% growth, and at 1.5% poverty elasticity of growth, it will take the Philippines 360 years to eliminate poverty.At 8% growth, and at 1.5% poverty elasticity of growth, it will still take the Philippines 130 years to eliminate poverty.At 10% growth (approximating China’s) and 5% poverty elasticity of growth (approximating Thailand’s), it will take 24 years to eliminate poverty in the Philippines.
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