Moez Labidi - Professor of Economics at the University of Monastir in Tunisia
In this presentation, Moez Labidi, Professor of Economics at the University of Monastir in Tunisia, discusses the current challenges of the democratic transition in Tunisia.
GDN-AUB Panel Discussion on "The road to democracy: The Arab region, Latin America and Eastern Europe".
Beirut, Lebanon
May 18th, 2012.
Tunisian Economy and the challenges of democratic transition
1. The Road to Democracy :
the Arab Region, Latin America and Eastern Europe
Beirut Friday, 18th May 2012
Tunisian Economy
and the Challenges
of Democratic Transition
Moez LABIDI
University of Monastir - Tunisia
2. 1 - Revolution outbreak main reasons
2 - Tunisian economy and the « revolution choc »
3 - The challenges of democratic transition in Tunisia
4 - Preliminary assessment of the Tunisian economic
situation
5 - Conclusion
2
4. Technological
Unemployment Goverment
high levels corruption
Economical Widespread of high tech Political
Regional Human rights
inequalities violation
4
5. Technological
Unemployment Goverment
high levels corruption
Economical Political
Regional Human rights
inequalities violation
Revolution
Dignity - Justice - Freedom
5
6. 1 - Revolution outbreak main reasons
2 - Tunisian economy and the « revolution choc »
6
8. Fiscal policy
Expansionary spending policy
Fiscal relief
Bailout of busnisses
Wages increase
Massive public sector hiring
Political uncertainty
Downturn in fiscal revenues
Increasing social demands
Increase in budget deficit 8
9. Monetary Policy :
ultra-expansionary
Reserves requirements Interest rate Liquidity injection
4,5 %
12,5 %
Mns TND
2% 3,5 %
Political uncertainty
insecurity
Weak governance in the banking sector
Distortion in Monetry policy
Transmission mecanisms 9
10. 1 - Revolution outbreak main reasons
2 - Tunisian economy and the « revolution choc »
3 - The challenges of democratic transition in Tunisia
10
11. Social challenge
Tunisians’ An urgent need for jobs
expectations and investment
Clearer political and New
economical vision perspectives
gap
Seek refuge in Defects in
easy solution fiscal balances
Current Govermental
economic limited resources
situation
11
12. Pressure on bank liquidity
Economy Boosting investment
funding Businesses bailout
Allocation of long-
term resources
Liquidité
Shortage
Central bank
intervention
Low Saving Purchasing power decrease
rate Negative real interest rate
12
13. External financing
Financing Regional development
funding projects
needs
International financial
market
External debt
Multilateral / Bilateral
Currency foreign investment fall
reserves Current account deficit
decrease
13
14. 1 - Revolution outbreak main reasons
2 - Tunisian economy and the « revolution choc »
3 - The challenges of democratic transition in Tunisia
4 - Preliminary assessment of the Tunisian economic
situation
14
16. 1 - Revolution outbreak main reasons
2 - Tunisian economy and the « revolution choc »
3 - The challenges of democratic transition in Tunisia
4 - Preliminary assessment of the Tunisian economic
situation
5 - Conclusion
16
18. New development model Revolution requirements
Is the current islamist goverment able to change the
developmental model ?
Modernise its Stick to
political speech radical speech
Enlarge its popularity Shrink its popularity
Starting with essential Answering populists
reforms demands
Switch to a new Keeping the
development model old development model 18