1. Northeastern University
Risk Assessment of
2016 Summer
Olympic Games
Cory Domina
2-18-2016

2. 1
At six months away from the start of the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro, the
International Olympic Committee (IOC), along with local partners, are well prepared to execute
a successful Olympic Games. These Olympics are facing major risks and threats including
infrastructure problems, terrorism, high criminal activity, pollution, and health issues, but
overall, they are well prepared, through risk management, to be successful. This research paper
will provide an assessment of the risk that faces the Summer Olympics, including risk mitigation
steps that the IOC and Brazil have already taken. First, this paper will provide contextual
information about the 2016 Summer Olympics and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Then, it will highlight
the risk assessment process for the Games and provide recommendations to the IOC. Finally,
building upon those recommendations, this paper will identify critical factors and controls
necessary to have a safe, secure, and successful 2016 Summer Olympics.
Background of Olympics and Rio de Janeiro
Hosting the Olympics used to be the ultimate honor for cities and countries. Today, there
are continual criticisms in the news about hosting the Olympics, either Summer or Winter. In the
years leading up to the Olympics, the media highlights the potential negative economic
repercussions of building stadiums that will get no use after the Games, the disparity of wealth in
the host country, and the working conditions of employees of private building companies. Due
to the lack of economic benefits, the IOC has seen the volume of applications for hosting the
Olympics drop from twelve cities in 2004 to five cities in 2020 (The Economist, 2015).
Nevertheless, after a successful World Cup in 2014, the 2016 Summer Olympics find themselves
in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

3. 2
Located in the Southeast portion of Brazil, Rio de Janeiro is known internationally for its
beaches and weather. The city itself is home to over five million people, while the greater
metropolitan area has more than ten and a half million people (City-Data, 2016). The Summer
Olympics, taking place from August 5-21, will actually be during Brazil’s winter which will
produce ideal weather so athletes will not have to deal with Brazil’s summer heat.
From the Rio2016 website, the Olympic Games will include roughly 10,500 athletes from
206 countries. The Games will take place across thirty-two venues in four portions of Rio de
Janeiro. For the Olympics to occur, the IOC is utilizing 45,000 volunteers, 85,000 outsourced
staff, and 6,500 employees (Rio2016.com, 2016).
General Risk Assessment
The threats and risks of the 2016 Summer Olympics can be broken into three main
categories: health, infrastructure, and security. Over the past thirty years, the IOC and partnering
organizations have embedded risk management into their planning for the Olympic Games.
According to the Harvard Business Report (2012), “[r]isk management is now at the heart of the
governance model for the Olympic Games and the Olympic movement” and cities bidding for
the Games must include risk assessments in their applications (Jennings, 2012). Because of the
inherent risk management strategies, the IOC has a risk maturity rating of natural or level 4. The
organization has “a risk-aware culture with a proactive approach to risk management in all
activities. As a result, the consideration of risk is inherent to routine processes” (Hopkin,
pg.116). With that being said, the Summer Olympics and IOC still face threats and the following
will demonstrate a risk assessment along with recommendations to increase the chances of a
successful event.

4. 3
As previously stated, the three main areas of risk concern are, infrastructure, health, and
security. Within each of these areas, there are specific threats that must be transferred, tolerated,
treated, or terminated. In the threat area of health, there are concerns about the water in Rio de
Janeiro, the zika virus, and a lack of medical staff. Infrastructure concerns range from
preparation of venues to transportation around the city and venues. Finally, security threats are
especially prevalent throughout Rio de Janeiro, and for the Olympics, include petty theft,
kidnappings, and terrorism. Below is a general risk assessment chart detailing these threats.
There will be a more in-depth analysis of risk management for these threats in the paragraphs
following the chart.
This chart illustrates the main threats of the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro
and their risk assessment. Each threat was assigned a severity and likelihood rating in
# Threat Description Severity Likelihood Risk
1 Health: water contamination High High Critical
2
Health: zika outbreak
High Moderate High
3
Health: lack of medical staff
High High Critical
4
Infrastructure: incomplete/insufficient construction
Low Low Low
5 Infrastructure: transportation issues Moderate Low Moderate
6
Security: criminal activity
Moderate High High
7
Security: terrorism
High Low Moderate

5. 4
accordance with the IOC’s and partner organization’s preparation for the Games. The chart
gives an accurate portrayal of where improvement is needed six months out from the start of the
Olympics. At this point, the main focus must be on health threats, while the infrastructure is not
a major concern. Now, we will examine each of these threat categories to assess why they were
rated as such and how the IOC can address the areas of concern.
Health Risk Assessment/Recommendations
The most pressing threat facing the 2016 Summer Olympics is the health concerns.
Among these health concerns are water contamination, the zika virus, and the lack of medical
staff. Water contamination has long been a concern for these Olympic Games. The Associated
Press conducted a study of the Rio de Janeiro water published in June, and the “analysis of water
quality revealed dangerously high levels of viruses and bacteria from human sewage in Olympic
and Paralympic venues” (Brooks & Barchfield, 2015). Since this initial testing in June, the
Associated Press conducted a more in-depth analysis in December and found similar results.
The water contamination can lead to a variety of illnesses for athletes and spectators including
“cholera, dysentery, hepatitis A and typhoid.” (Brooks & Barchfield, 2015).
In addition to contaminated water, the Summer Olympics also could be a breeding
ground for the spread of the zika virus. An outbreak of the virus was discover in Brazil in 2015
so this is especially concerning giving the proximity to the start of the Olympics. The World
Health Organization states that the symptoms “can include mild fever, skin rashes, conjunctivitis,
muscle and joint pain, malaise or headache” (WHO, 2016). It is carried by mosquitos, but can
also be passed from human to human. The major cause for concern is the massive influx of
hundreds of thousands of people into an area with a plethora of mosquito breeding grounds from
stagnant water. There is an ongoing investigation to the disease’s link to microcephaly, but more

6. 5
research is needed to prove this. Water contamination and the presence of the zika virus are a
cause for concern on their own, but exponentially increasing the problem is the current issue
surrounding medical clinics and staff in Rio de Janeiro.
Due to healthcare budget cuts and disputes between the government and medical union,
some hospitals and clinics have been forced to close. The Telegraph reports that, “[s]ome major
hospitals have been forced to close their doors while even the most seriously ill patients cannot
be admitted because of a funding shortfall that has meant a daily deficit of 150 beds” (Bowater,
2016). The union leaders continue to voice their concerns of not being able to care for people
that get sick, especially during the Olympics, due to lack of resources and staff. The government
has attempted to increase funding, but has been met with opposition and even a lawsuit from the
union. With the warning signs that health risks are unavoidable, it is of utmost importance that
there be sufficient healthcare for the Olympic Games. Below is bowtie assessment of these
threats including controls and outcomes.
Key
Threat Area
Massive disease
outbreak
Health Risks
Water
Contamination
Prevalence of
zika virus
Lack of medical
staff
Spray insecticides,
provide repellent
No medical staff or
room for patients
Pandemic ensues,
spreads across
countries
Deaths and
microcephaly occur

7. 6
As depicted in the bowtie analysis, there are a variety
of controls that must be applied to prevent these health threats
from coming to fruition. Water contamination is of
particular concern as athletes will be required to be in it for
specific events. With this in mind, there must be increased
efforts to clean the water, clean stagnant water, and also provide athletes with protective
equipment. The water contamination risk cannot be completed mitigated within six months so
this risk will have to be accepted to a certain extent. Similarly, zika will not be able to be
eradicated, but preventative action such as insecticide spray, repellent, and research into the links
to other diseases must be completed.
Most importantly, there needs to be adequate medical staff and clinics or hospitals
available to athletes, spectators, and locals. It is inevitable that there will be sick people,
regardless of the water or other diseases presence. With this in mind, the IOC should take it
upon themselves to assist with negotiations and use funds to keep clinics open and staffed. Also,
they must have popup tents with medical staff available to the large crowds at the Games. With
these controls, the IOC should be confident that they can decrease the health risk to a tolerable
level.
Infrastructure Risk Assessment/Recommendations
The second risk area for the Summer Olympics in Rio de Janeiro is the infrastructure.
This is always a major question area for any city hosting the Olympics. Can it handle the
construction of facilities and transportation and the massive influx of potentially a million people
in such a short time period? This was a serious problem in the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi,
Russia where the Olympic Village, where the athletes were housed, and other structures were
Threat
Control
Event
Worst outcome

8. 7
incomplete. Sochi was able to work around these issues and still hold a generally successful
Winter Olympics, so even if there are some lags in building construction, the Games can
continue.
In a report from Tech Insider and the Rio Media Center, Rio de Janeiro “will almost
certainly have its infrastructure finished in time for the Games. It just might continue
construction until the very last minute” (Schwartz, 2015). The city appears as though it should
be completely ready for the Olympic Games, as it was for the World Cup. The one infrastructure
question mark seems to be transportation. This is obviously very important to the functionality
of the Games as fans must travel throughout the region to attend various events. The city is in
the process of expanding its subway network to accommodate roughly 300,000 people each day,
and “the subway extension is set to open on July 1. The Games begin on August 5, leaving a
small window of time for the city to smooth out inevitable kinks in the new infrastructure”
(Knowlton, 2016). The lack of a functioning subway system could spell disaster for visitors.
Below is a SWOT analysis for infrastructure detailing these potential problems and
opportunities.
Strengths
Athletics venues and hotels arenearing
completion
Opportunities
Uses for new construction likeapartments
Expandingtransportation systemincreases
tourism
Public/privatecollaboration for better subway
Weaknesses
Subway addition may not be availableor
functional
Threats
Substantial delays in transportation
Poor subway leads to more road traffic
Infrastructure
SWOT

9. 8
Overall, the infrastructure is solid from the city’s World Cup experience. However, the
main concern of transportation remains. The Brazilian government and private sector have
opportunities to collaborate in providing a stronger infrastructure. There are commercial uses for
the new construction after the Games and a better subway system leads to a better functioning
city. Hopefully, these incentives can encourage the collaboration necessary to prepare the
subway system adequately for the Summer Games.
Security Risk Assessment/Recommendations
As with any event, especially one with the magnitude of the Olympics, security is always
a serious issue. However, it is a higher threat in the city of Rio de Janeiro. The United States
Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) gives the crime in Rio de Janeiro a critical rating.
OSAC reports that “[i]n Rio, robbery, assault, burglary and theft are concerns for foreigners and
Brazilians alike. Criminals are determined and sophisticated, which requires visitors to be alert to
their surroundings. Violent crimes (murder, kidnapping, carjacking, armed assault, and burglary)
occur regularly” (OSAC, 2015). They also warn to avoid buses and specific gang controlled
neighborhoods.
In a city where crime is so prevalent and on the rise, it is important to educate visitors and
increase security. The IOC and local government must employee additional security around the
events and if possible, provide attendees with useful advice to decrease their chances of
becoming a victim. This could come in the form of emails/flyers that come with purchased
tickets to events, along with employees directing attendants where to go before and after Games
or matches. There are numerous reports of increased crime surrounding the World Cup so these
mitigation strategies should bring the risk down to a tolerable level, as it is impossible to stop all
criminal activity.

10. 9
In addition to the aforementioned criminal activity, the threat of a large scale, terrorist
attack always looms at the Olympics. The viewership, symbolism, and attendance of the
Olympics make it a serious potential target for a terrorist attack. As previously stated, the IOC
has developed a risk culture which prepares for threats even prior to the planning process. As
noted in Mega-crises: Understanding the prospects, nature, characteristics, and the effects of
cataclysmic events, “planning for the Sydney 2000 Olympics proved strangely prophetic of the
Al-Qaeda attack on September 11th, 2001 as organizers prepared strategies for the scenario most
feared by International Olympic Committee (IOC) President, Juan Antonio Samaranch: that of a
commercial plane being flown into the opening ceremony” (Jennings, 2012, pg. 3). This
example demonstrates the detailed planning for terrorist attacks, as they even plan for black
swans. In today’s world, the IOC must continue to plan for potential attacks including full
exercises of successful attacks.
For criminal activity, it is about minimizing the regularity and severity. Petty theft is
inevitable, but public and private hired security must work to prevent larger, more dangerous
crimes from taking place by protecting tourist areas and assisting visitors. The threat of a
largescale terrorist attack is low, and this is thanks to the preparation and planning of the IOC
and local authorities. The severity of a successful attack could be catastrophic so increasing
security through manpower, technology, and additional screening will reduce this threat to an
acceptable level.
Factors Critical to Success
Through proper mitigation strategies and planning, the IOC and local organizations and
government will be able to execute a successful Summer Olympics for all in Rio de Janeiro. The
main factors required for success are collaboration between the public and private sector,

11. 10
increased targeted security, and preventative controls to protect all parties involved from health
risks. The public and private sector must work together to complete the subway extension and
provide healthcare and security for the Games. Now at six months from the start, the main focus
must be health issues, in order to prevent an international pandemic. Water cleanup must
continue and steps must be taken to limit the spread of zika through education and measures like
WHO approved insecticides. With the addition of these factors to the extensive planning by the
IOC, the 2016 Summer Olympics will be successful with minimal setbacks.

12. 11
References
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2016-games.html
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