CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: November 28, 2017
For a closer look at Libya this week, view the full Threat Update.
The destabilization of the Kenyan state due to the election crisis
creates an opportunity for al Shabaab to expand. Incumbent Kenyan
President Uhuru Kenyatta was inaugurated after a Supreme Court ruling
upheld the election results as opposition groups protested. Kenya
continues to see escalating violence between rival ethnic groups.
Kenya
Yemen
A Gulf state competition for influence across southern Yemen is
destabilizing. An Emirati-backed council seeks to establish local
administrations across the south, potentially undermining already-present
administrations. The UAE, Oman, and Saudi Arabia each have sought to
increase influence in Yemen’s easternmost governorate of al Mahrah.
Libya
Armed groups are seizing the opportunity to control the outcome of the
Libyan civil war as the UN-led peace process stagnates. Talks broke
down after a western Libyan legislature rejected proposed amendments
to a power-sharing agreement, citing bias toward a rival eastern
parliament. The deadlock weakens political actors on both sides and
may lead to military escalation in Libya’s capital.

2. 2
Threat Update: November 28, 2017
Mali
The Malian government postponed local elections from December
2017 to April 2018 due to security concerns, potentially undermining
the tenuous ceasefire in northern Mali. AQIM’s affiliate in Mali has
sustained attacks in the region. The elections are a prerequisite for
implementing terms of the 2015 Bamako Agreement. Anti-government
groups in northern Mali had pushed for the delay.
Tunisia
The implementation of austere economic reforms may cause civil
unrest in Tunisia. Tunisia’s prime minister announced a plan to increase
taxes and freeze public-sector hiring. Taxes and high unemployment are
a primary driver of anti-government demonstrations and Salafi-jihadi
recruitment in Tunisia. Increased unrest would strain Tunisian security
forces and could destabilize the country’s young democracy.
Pakistan Protests across Pakistan led by Tehrik-e-Labaik, a conservative Islamist
party, may signal the growing popularity of conservative religious
fringe parties in the 2018 general elections. The Pakistani government’s
botched attempt to disband the protesters with enabled the religious
groups leading the protests to consolidate public support.

3. Horn of
Africa
3Matthew Cassidy
Election crisis destabilizing Kenyan state
The opposition party
boycotted the re-run
election, sparking three
days of police and
ethnic violence.
1
Police and rival clans killed
31 opposition supporters
before the Supreme Court’s
ruling on the re-run election.
2
The opposition held a
memorial rally for victims of
police and ethnic violence
during President Kenyatta’s
inauguration.
3

4. Libya
4Erin Neale
UN process deadlock sets stage for armed
conflict
12 NOV: The pro-Haftar
eastern administration
threatened to arrest Libyan
officials who have contact with
the UN-backed Government of
National Accord.
2
21 OCT: The HoR and HSC
left the second round of
talks without agreement on
the structure of the
government and process for
selecting officials.
23 NOV: The HSC rejected
the LPA amendments, citing
a pro-HoR bias.
1
3

5. Yemen
5Emma Tveit and Randy Morton
Gulf state competition for influence destabilizing
in southern Yemen
1. 14 OCT: Hadi government
forces attacked Emirati-
backed forces for flying
the South Yemen flag.
2. 21 OCT: The Emirati-
backed Transitional
Political Council of the
South (STC) inaugurated
local leadership in Aden.
3. 24 OCT: The STC
inaugurated leadership in
al Mahrah.
4. 13 NOV: Saudi-led
coalition forces deployed
to al Mahrah.
5. 16 NOV: The STC
inaugurated leadership in
al Dhaleh and Lahij.
6. 18 NOV: The STC
inaugurated leadership in
Abyan.
1
6
5
43
2

6. Pakistan
6Colin Neafsey
Government response to protests increases
support for Tehrik-e-Labaik
3
08 NOV: Thousands staged
a sit-in in Islamabad to protest
an amendment to the 2017
Election Bill, blocking traffic
and disrupting public services.
1
17 NOV: The Islamabad High
Court (IHC) ordered the
government to evict protesters
within 24 hours “by any means
necessary.”
25 NOV: 8,500 troops deployed to end protests.
Clashes caused hundreds of injuries and seven
deaths. Outrage over this response increased
support for protesters across Pakistan and forced
the government to cancel the security operation.
20 NOV: The IHC extended
the eviction deadline to 23 NOV,
but condemned Interior Minister
Iqbal’s inaction.
3 26 NOV: The Pakistani military
brokered an agreement between
the interior minister and Tehrik-e-
Labaik leadership, including the
resignation of Law Minister Hamid
and several other government
concessions.
5
2 4

7. Maghreb
7
Tunisians protest economic policies
1. 22 NOV: Protesters
criticized the
government’s failure to
complete development
projects in Sejnane,
Tunisia.
2. 22 NOV: Tunisians
protested the lack of
wage increases in
Jendouba, Tunisia.
3. 27 NOV: Tunisian
citizens demonstrated
against the hiring freeze
on teachers in Gafsa,
Tunisia.
Bryan Gilday
1
3
2

8. Sahel
8
Tuareg ex-separatist group gains leverage in
northern Mali
Margarita Kotti
19 OCT: Tuareg ex-separatist
group Coordination for the
Movement of the Azawad (CMA)
and pro-government militia
Platforme signed a ceasefire
agreement in Bamako.
1
07 NOV: The CMA and
Congress for Justice in
Azawad (CJA) called for
postponement of elections.
2
27 NOV: The Malian
government postponed
elections from
December 2017 to April
2018.
3

9. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West
Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
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10. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Assistant
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
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