CTP’s Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: December 12, 2017
For a closer look at al Qaeda this week, view the full Threat Update.
Yemen
Yemeni military units that had been loyal to the late former Yemeni
president Ali Abdullah Saleh switched from supporting the al Houthi
movement to joining an Emirati-backed Yemeni government
offensive against al Houthi positions in western Yemen. The offensive
will likely stall before it reaches its objective, al Hudaydah port, as it
encounters populations hostile to the coalition.
Al Qaeda Network A series of statements from the al Qaeda network demonstrated unity
and called for attacks against the West in response to the U.S.
administration’s decision to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.
The absence of sustained popular backlash across the Arab world will
hinder al Qaeda’s efforts to galvanize a response.
Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Haftar could spoil the
UN peace process and Libya’s democratic transition. Haftar supporters
vandalized polling stations during voter registration, signaling the
likelihood of a return to civil conflict if the Libyan peace process does not
preserve Haftar’s position and influence.
Libya

2. 2
Threat Update: December 12, 2017
Somali government forces made gains against al Shabaab in southern
Somalia but are unlikely to sustain them due to insufficient resources
and the impending withdrawal of African Union forces. The
government offensive has targeted al Shabaab’s support zones in
southern Somalia and reduced the group’s ability to conduct attacks
from those regions.
Somalia
Nigeria
Moroccan ISIS facilitators are recruiting and planning attacks in
Spain. Moroccan and Spanish security forces dismantled an ISIS cell
operating in northern Morocco and two Spanish cities on December 5.
ISIS militants returning from Iraq and Syria will likely use Morocco’s
restive northern regions as a support zone for attacks in Europe.
Morocco
Boko Haram has the capability to attack outside of its strongholds in
northern Nigeria. Nigerian security forces uncovered a Boko Haram
plot to conduct bombings in six states and the capital Abuja during the
holiday season.

3. Yemen
3Randy Morton
Anti-al Houthi forces advance halfway to
objective of al Hudaydah port
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3
2
1. 05 DEC: Coalition-backed
troops, joined by forces
formerly loyal to Saleh,
advanced from Yakhtul, Taiz
for the first time.
2. 06 DEC: Hadi government
troops backed by Emirati
forces reached al Khawkhah
district, al Hudaydah
governorate.
3. 07 DEC: Coalition-backed
forces seized two military
camps.
4. 10 DEC: Coalition-backed
forces seized Hays city and
reached the outskirts of Zabid
city.
C
AttackClear
s
s
s
Seize
LEGEND

4. Al Qaeda
Network
4Maher Farrukh
Al Qaeda seeks to incite violence after U.S.
Jerusalem decision
1. 06 DEC: AQAP appealed to Muslims to support the mujahideen with money and weapons.
2. 06 & 09 DEC: Al Shabaab called on supporters to take up arms against the U.S. and Israel.
3. 07 DEC: Al Qaeda General Command called the Trump administration’s decision an affront to Muslims and
urged Muslims to unite in defensive jihad.
4. 07 DEC: Ansar Ghazwat ul Hind called on supporters to attack U.S. and Israeli embassies.
5. 07 DEC: Hay’at Tahrir al Sham stated that the decision discredited the U.S. as a peace broker.
6. 07 DEC: AQIM called on Muslims to make the liberation of Palestine their central cause.
7. 07 DEC: The Afghan Taliban claimed President Trump’s decision exposed America’s true colonialist face.
8. 11 DEC: JNIM condemned the Trump administration’s decision and called for support to the Syrian jihad.
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5. Libya
5Emily Estelle
Armed conflict threatens Libyan election
preparations
1. 06 DEC: The Libyan High
National Elections
Commission (HNEC) began a
two-month voter registration
period.
2. 07 DEC: Clashes between
LNA forces and Islamist
militants continued despite the
LNA’s claim to secure the city.
3. 07 DEC: A GNA-aligned
Salafi militia cracked down on
rival militias in Wirshefana.
4. 10 DEC: Haftar supporters
vandalized polling stations in
Benghazi, Umm al Rizam, and
Qubbah.
5. 11 DEC: HNEC installed
election boards in Derna,
which is partially controlled by
Islamist militants and
blockaded by the LNA.
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6. Horn of
Africa
6Matthew Cassidy
SNA forces secure positions in southern
Somalia
3 1
2
5
4
1. 06 NOV: AMISOM forces
began securing the
Wanlaweyn-Mogadishu
highway.
2. 14-16 NOV: SNA forces
detained 19 militants and
nine senior al Shabaab
officials in Afgoi.
3. 29 NOV: The SNA
captured Balad Amin town.
4. 06 DEC: SNA forces
began clearing al Shabaab
hideouts in Bay region.
5. 07 DEC: Six al Shabaab
militants surrendered to
SNA forces in Dinsor.
6. 10 DEC: SNA forces
secured the Garbaharey-
Bardhere highway.
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7. Maghreb
7
Spanish-Moroccan security operation
dismantles ISIS cell
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3
2
Bryan Gilday
1. 05 DEC: Moroccan security
forces arrested an ISIS cell
leader in Tangier, Morocco.
2. 05 DEC: Spanish police
arrested two Spanish-
Moroccan ISIS militants in
Figueres, Spain.
3. 05 DEC: Spanish police
arrested a Spanish-Moroccan
ISIS militant in Parla, Spain.

8. Sahel
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1
Boko Haram factions target cities in northern
Nigeria
Margarita Kotti
5
1. 09 NOV: Nigerian security
forces thwarted a VBIED
attack in Gulak, Madagali,
Adamawa State.
2. 21 NOV: A Boko Haram-
Shekau militant detonated a
SVEST at a mosque in Mubi,
Adamawa State.
3. 25 NOV: The Nigerian Army
disrupted Boko Haram-
Barnawi’s attempt to seize
Magumeri, Borno State.
4. 02 DEC: Boko Haram-
Shekau militants detonated
two SVESTs in Biu, Borno
State.
5. 07 DEC: Nigerian
authorities revealed a Boko
Haram plot to attack Abuja
and other Nigerian cities.

9. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West
Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
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10. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Assistant
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Iran Analysts
Marie Donovan
Mike Saidi
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