CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: July 17, 2018
Yemen
Internecine fighting may weaken AQAP and ISIS in southern Yemen,
but a renewed secession crisis will likely prevent security forces from
capitalizing on the opportunity. AQAP militants clashed with ISIS militants
in central Yemen, a shift from past tactical-level cooperation against al
Houthi forces. The Transitional Political Council of the South held its first
National Assembly where it announced plans for southern secession.
Iran
U.S. attempts to secure a Russian-brokered agreement for the removal
of Iranian and Iranian-backed forces from Syria will fail to moderate
Iran’s regional activities. The Supreme Leader’s senior foreign policy
advisor vowed to maintain Iran’s “advisory presence” in Syria and
dismissed the possibility of negotiating with the U.S. The advisor met
with Russian President Vladimir Putin on July 13.
Al Shabaab is conducting a wave of suicide vehicle-borne
improvised explosive device (SVBIED) attacks to degrade security and
weaken the Somali Federal Government in Mogadishu. Al Shabaab
conducted a similar wave of attacks in February-March 2018. Al Shabaab
conducted twin SVBIED attacks targeting Villa Somalia in Mogadishu on
July 14, a week after the group detonated two SVBIEDs at the ministries
of the interior and security.
Somalia

2. 2
Salafi-jihadi groups increased the scale of attacks on security targets
in northeastern Nigeria in order to attrite overstretched security forces
and expand support zones. ISWA is exploiting its freedom of movement
in Borno State to counteract Nigerian and Nigerien pressure on its Lake
Chad Basin stronghold. Boko Haram-Shekau commanders may be
shifting toward striking hard targets in order to facilitate reconciliation or a
merger with ISWA in the event of Shekau’s death.
Threat Update: July 17, 2018
Nigeria
South Asia
The outcome of Pakistan’s general election may destabilize the
country and hinder U.S. peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. The
Pakistani military is backing a party that is less likely to end support for
militant groups in Afghanistan and India. Salafi-jihadi groups are targeting
politicians and election officials, fueling popular discontent. The ruling
party may organize protests that will cause the military to focus internally
rather than on countering militant groups.
Attacks on infrastructure in Libya’s interior threaten the coastal population’s
access to resources and could lead to a humanitarian crisis and
increased migration if not contained. Militant attacks throughout southern
Libya have disrupted oil production and water infrastructure in recent
weeks. ISIS may be responsible for some of the attacks, reflecting efforts to
worsen tensions and prevent the formation of a functional Libyan state.
Libya

3. Yemen
3
Present
12 JUL: AQAP and ISIS militants
clashed in central Yemen, killing
25 ISIS militants.
08 JUN-10 JUN: The Political Transitional Council
of the South (STC) announced its plans to secede
and form an independent southern state in its
inaugural National Assembly meeting.
15 JUL: An STC-aligned al Hizam general
vowed to expel the Hadi government from
southern Yemen within a few days. Al Hizam
forces are one of the primary
counterterrorism forces in southern Yemen.
Anmar Jerjees
STC secession plan could decrease pressure on
Salafi-jihadi groups as ISIS and AQAP clash
1 2
3
15 JUL: AQAP claimed that ISIS killed
captured AQAP fighters and displayed
“moral failure.”
4

4. Horn of
Africa
4Isabelle Astier-Ibrahim
Al Shabaab conducts attack wave to weaken
the Somali Federal Government
23 FEB: Al Shabaab conducted two SVBIED attacks
targeting Villa Somalia and the Somali National Intelligence
and Security Agency headquarters in Mogadishu, killing over
45 people and wounding a dozen others.
1
07 JUL: Al Shabaab conducted
simultaneous attacks on the interior and
security ministries, killing 34 people.
2
Present
1
2
3
Key
Multiple attacks
One attack
14 JUL: Al Shabaab conducted twin
SVBIED attacks on security checkpoints
and a hotel near Villa Somalia, killing 25
guards.
3Al Shabaab SVBIED attacks in Mogadishu 2018

5. 5Jake Barnett
Salafi-jihadi groups increase the scale of
attacks against security forces in Nigeria
Nigeria
Key
Present
ISWA
Boko Haram-
Shekau
29 JUN: AFP reported that Abubakar
Shekau is ill and that his commanders are
debating succession.
11 JUL: ISWA released its first video in 17
months highlighting military successes and
economic activity in ISWA-controlled territory.
2
13 JUL: 100+ Boko Haram-Shekau
fighters ambushed a Nigerian Army
convoy and stole vehicles in Borno State.
Boko Haram-Shekau does not frequently
target security forces.
3
14 JUL: Hundreds of ISWA militants
driving military vehicles overran a
Nigerian base in Yobe State.
41

6. 6Mackenzie Robinson
Instability increases before Pakistan’s
general election
South
Asia
Present
06 JUL: The National Accountability
Bureau sentenced former Prime Minister
Nawaz Sharif to 10 years in prison on
corruption charges.
13 JUL: An ISIS suicide attacker
targeted a Balochistan Awami Party
rally, killing over 130 people.
10 JUL: The TTP attacked an Awami
National Party election rally, killing the leader
and 20 others.
1
2
3
15 JUL: Pakistani officials continued to suppress
PML-N support by arresting hundreds and
opening 17,000 criminal investigations.
4

7. Libya
7
Attacks on key resources could lead to humanitarian
crisis in Libya
Caitlin McMahon
Al Hassouna plant
Al Sharara
oil field
Tazirbu site
06 JUL:
1. Militants kidnapped several workers at
the al Hassouna plant but later released
them. ISIS and pro-Qaddafi militants
attacked this plant multiple times between
2016 and 2017.
08 JUL:
2. Suspected Salafi-jihadi militants killed
two workers after kidnapping three
employees of the Great Man-Made River in
Tazirbu.
14 JUL:
3. Attackers kidnapped one Romanian and
three Libyan engineers at al Sharara, the
country’s largest oil field, later releasing
two of the Libyans.
4. The National Oil Company closed al
Sharara in response and will lose 160,000
barrels per day because of the shutdown.
Key
Attack
City affected
Great Man-Made River flow
Oil production flow
1
2
3, 4
Benghazi
Ajdabiya
Sirte
TripoliZawiya
port
17 JUL:
5. The National Oil Corporation declared
force majeure on exports from Zawiya port.
5

8. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISGS: ISIS in the Greater Sahara
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
ISWA: ISIS West Africa Province
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
8

9. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
9
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Jake Barnett
Iran Analysts
Mike Saidi
Nicholas Carl
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly