CTP's Threat Update series is a weekly update and assessment of Iran and the al Qaeda network and its affiliates in Yemen, the Horn of Africa, and the Maghreb and Sahel.

1. 1
Threat Update: July 31, 2018
Yemen
Saudi Arabia is attempting to garner international support for an
offensive on al Hudaydah port. Saudi companies halted oil shipments
through the Bab al Mandab Strait after an al Houthi attack on a Saudi oil
tanker in the Red Sea. The al Houthi movement declared a unilateral
ceasefire and urged the coalition to reciprocate likely to preempt
international pressure against al Houthi forces.
Iran
Iranian hardliners will push for additional changes to the Rouhani
administration following the removal of the Central Bank head and the
resignation of the government spokesperson. Hardliners have pressured
President Hassan Rouhani to replace administration officials in recent
weeks amid mounting economic protests. Hardliner parliamentarians
may call for the questioning of Rouhani or his first vice president if Iran’s
economy does not improve.
Pakistan’s next Prime Minister, Imran Khan, may create favorable
conditions for Salafi-jihadi groups in the region. Khan is unlikely to
prevent the Pakistani military from supporting hardline groups such as
the U.S.-designated Haqqani Network, which may seek to undermine
U.S.-backed peace talks with the Afghan Taliban. Khan is unlikely to
prosecute Pakistani Islamist groups due to his fundamentalist ties.
South
Asia

2. 2
Threat Update: July 31, 2018
Libya’s failing constitutional reform efforts may undermine the UN-
backed peace process. Elections may be pushed back further due to the
failure of the House of Representatives to vote on a constitutional
referendum and French and Italian disagreement over election timelines.
The collapse of the UN reconstruction plan will perpetuate conditions that
allow Salafi-jihadi groups to maintain safe havens in Libya.
Libya
Nigeria
Farmer-herder violence and insecurity in southeastern Nigeria are
hindering Nigerian efforts to combat Salafi-jihadi groups. The
Nigerian government deployed 1,000 security forces and air assets to
Zamfara State to combat banditry, and the army announced the
development of five bases along the southeastern border with Cameroon
on July 29. Overstretched security forces will be unable to devote
sufficient resources to combat Salafi-jihadi groups in the northeast.
Sahel
Al Qaeda in Mali is attempting to disrupt the elections to undermine
the Malian state and discredit secular governance. JNIM attacks
against polling stations and a MINUSMA base contributed to the
disruption of voting in one-fifth of the stations. JNIM may escalate
violence during the rest of the elections.

3. Yemen
3Bibi Lichauco
Saudi Arabia highlights the threat from al Houthi
forces controlling the Red Sea coast
31 JUL: Al Houthi
Supreme Revolutionary
Committee Chairman
Mohammed Ali al Houthi
announced a unilateral
ceasefire in the Red Sea.
18 JUL: Al Houthi forces claimed
a drone hit an Aramco refinery
near Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
25 JUL: Al Houthi forces
damaged a Saudi oil tanker in
the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia
halted oil shipments through the
Bab al Mandab in response.
26 JUL: Al Houthi
forces claimed a drone
attacked Abu Dhabi
International Airport.
4
1
3
2
Present
31 JUL: An independent UN
panel reported al Houthi
forces continue to use
sophisticated weaponry from
Iran in 2018.
5

4. 4Mackenzie Robinson
Imran Khan expresses sympathy for Islamist
groups in South Asia
South
Asia
Present
OCT 2012: Khan stated that Islamic Law
justifies the Taliban’s “holy war” in Afghanistan.
NOV 2013: Khan blocked
NATO supply lines in
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
province in response to U.S.
drone strikes in Pakistan.
NOV 2017: Khan and
“Father of the Taliban”
Sami-ul-Haq discussed
an alliance.
1
3
2
JUN 2018: Khan expressed support for
Pakistan’s hardline blasphemy laws.
4 JUL 2018: Harakat-ul-Mujahideen
founder Fazlur Rehman Khalil
joined Khan’s party.
5

5. Sahel
5Reilly Andreasen
Salafi-jihadi violence inhibits voting in Malian
elections
Present
27 JUL: JNIM condemned the
election as contrary to shari’a.
1 29 JUL: JNIM attacked a
MINUSMA and French base in
direct protest of the elections.
2
29 JUL: Militants disrupted voting at
over 4,000 stations and prevented
voting in over 600 locations.
3
Distribution of closed voting offices*
81% Mopti Region
13.4% Timbuktu Region
5.4% Segou Region
*Election observers were not deployed to Kidal and Menaka Regions

6. Libya
6
Political instability threatens future of UN-
planned reconstruction and elections
Caitlin McMahon
17 JUL: UN Envoy Ghassan
Salamé called for postponing
elections, reversing support for a
December 2018 deadline.
21-23 JUL: French Foreign
Minister and Italian Defense
Minister visited Tripoli to promote
their individual electoral plans.
30 JUL: Delegates missed the
deadline for voting on a
constitutional referendum after the
constitutional committee’s chairman
resigned under LNA pressure
1
3
4
20 and 27 JUL: The Italian
Prime Minister criticized
France for pushing for
elections by the end of 2018.
2
16 SEP: Deadline for new
electoral laws set at the May
2018 Paris Summit.
10 DEC: Deadline for legislative
and presidential elections set at
the May 2018 Paris Summit.

7. 7Jake Barnett
Nationwide insecurity hinders effective
operations against Salafi-jihadi groups
Nigeria
Significant ongoing
military operations
Operation Delta Safe
Operation Whirl Stroke II
Operation Safe Haven
Operation Lafiya Dole
Operation Whirl Stroke
Operation Lafiya Dole: The Nigerian Army is
conducting operations against ISWA and Boko
Haram-Shekau in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states
with some operations in Bauchi State.
Herdsmen violence: Nigerian security
forces have launched three separate
operations to prevent farmer-herder
clashes across six states in the Middle
Belt and northwestern Nigeria.
Niger Delta: Security forces are
combatting militancy in the oil-rich region.
Conflict in neighboring Cameroon has
prompted the construction of additional
forward operating bases along the border.
1
2
3

8. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISGS: ISIS in the Greater Sahara
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
ISWA: ISIS West Africa Province
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
8

9. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
9
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Jake Barnett
Iran Analysts
Mike Saidi
Nicholas Carl
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly