DAFNE project Decision Analytic Framework to explore the water-energy-food Nexus in complex transboundary water resources of fast developing countries

1. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project
DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK TO EXPLORE THE
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS IN COMPLEX TRANSBOUNDARY
WATER RESOURCES OF FAST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES.
Funded under the H2020 Framework
Programme of the EU, GA No. 690268
PROJECT OVERVIEW
Paolo Burlando
ETH Zurich
paolo.burlando@ethz.ch

2. 2
DAFNE Partners
Participant Country
Eidgenoessische Technische Hochschule Zürich Switzerland
Politecnico di Milano Italy
Int. Centre for Research on the Environment and the Economy Greece
Katholieke Universiteit Leuven Belgium
The University Court of the University of Aberdeen United Kingdom
Osnabrück University Germany
International Water Management Institute IWMI Sri Lanka
African Collaborative Centre for Earth System Science Kenya
TBA Ethiopia
University of Zambia Zambia
Universidade Eduardo Mondlane Mozambique
Vista Geowissenschaftliche Fernerkundung GmbH Germany
ATEC-3D Ltd. United Kingdom
European Institute for Participatory Media EV Germany

3. 3
Project objectives
• DAFNE stands for Decision-Analytic Framework to explore the water-
energy-food NExus in complex and transboundary water resources
systems of fast growing developing countries
• DAFNE advocates an integrated water resources management
approach, which explicitly addresses the Water-Energy-Food (WEF)
nexus.
• It supports the promotion of a green economy in regions where
infrastructure development and expanding agriculture have to be
balanced with local social, economic, and environmental dimensions.
• DAFNE will analyse and quantify the WEF nexus with respect to the
trade-offs between conflicting objectives, such as hydropower
production vs. irrigation and land exploitation vs. conservation.
• The overall objective is to establish a decision-analytic framework
(DAF) for Participatory and Integrated Planning (PIP).

4. 4
The Decision-Analytic Framework
The DAF is intended to be a quantitative assessment tool to facilitate social
understanding of the impact and support comparative analysis of
alternative pathways.
It will be developed through extensive, quantitative analysis of the
anticipated effects of alternative planning options on the broad range of
heterogeneous and often competing interests in transboundary river basins,
also addressing feedback mechanisms between the WEF components
It will be informed by, improved upon and validated through:
a) active engagement of stakeholders throughout the process, and
b) involvement of international and local academic expertise (water
engineering, agricultural sciences, natural sciences, environmental
economics, water governance and law)

5. 5
Project structure – The PIP procedure
VNL (virtual)negotiation)lab))– WP6
In)the)virtual)negotiation)lab)the)stakeholder/DMs)comparatively)assess)the)
pathway)provided)by)WP5)and)negotiate)to)extract)several)interesting)
largely)agreed)upon)alternatives.
DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5
Robust)pathways)(sequences)of)actions)))are)selected)via)simulationGbased)optimization)of)the)
integrated)model)built)in)WP3)for)different)alternative)combinations/timing))of)planning)
actions)suggested)by)WP3))and)WP4)under)current)and)future)climatic)and)socioGtechnological)
scenarios)(WP3).)Pathway)are)assessed)based)on)the)multiple)indicators)identified)in)WP2.)
The)DAF)provides:
• Set)of)interesting)alternative)pathways)for)each)scenarios)considered.
• A)set)of)robust)alternatives)across)all)the)scenarios.
INDICATORS – WP2
• Evaluation'Indicators'representing)the)different)
stakeholder)groups)are)identified)sector)by)
sector)in)collaboration)with)the)stakeholders)and)
the)decision)makers.)
• Additional)high)level)indicators)can)be)
formulated)in)WP3)to)capture)governance,)
economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.)
MODELS'– WP3/WP4
• Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and)
validated
• Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set)
up)and)validated
• The)model)of)the)different)components)are)
combined))into)an)integrated)model
ACTIONS'and'SCENARIOS'– WP2
• Current)baseline and)future scenarios of)the)
main)drivers)(boundaries))of)the)system)are)
built.
• Planning and)management actions,)including)
infrastructural,)normative)and)operational)
intervention)are)identified)(the)action)will)be)
combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of)
set)of)actions)
Set$of$feasible$actions
Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$
reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$
agricultural$production,…)
Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators
Candidate$pathways
MONITORING'– WP2
• Historical)data)acquisition
• Large)scale)remote)sensing)and)local)scale)
Unmanned)Aerial)Vehicle)surveys
• Ground)truth)by)field)work
• SocioGeconomic)surveys
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
FEEDBACK
MONITORING
ACTIONS and
SCENARIOS INDICATORS
MODELS
DAF
VNL

6. 6
DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5
INDICATORS – WP2
• Evaluation'Indicators'representing)the)different)
stakeholder)groups)are)identified)sector)by)
sector)in)collaboration)with)the)stakeholders)and)
the)decision)makers.)
• Additional)high)level)indicators)can)be)
formulated)in)WP3)to)capture)governance,)
economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.)
MODELS'– WP3/WP4
• Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and)
validated
• Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set)
up)and)validated
• The)model)of)the)different)components)are)
combined))into)an)integrated)model
ACTIONS'and'SCENARIOS'– WP2
• Current)baseline and)future scenarios of)the)
main)drivers)(boundaries))of)the)system)are)
built.
• Planning and)management actions,)including)
infrastructural,)normative)and)operational)
intervention)are)identified)(the)action)will)be)
combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of)
set)of)actions)
Set$of$feasible$actions
Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$
reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$
agricultural$production,…)
Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators
MONITORING'– WP2
• Historical)data)acquisition
• Large)scale)remote)sensing)and)local)scale)
Unmanned)Aerial)Vehicle)surveys
• Ground)truth)by)field)work
• SocioGeconomic)surveys
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
Project structure – The PIP procedure
VNL (virtual)negotiation)lab))– WP6
In)the)virtual)negotiation)lab)the)stakeholder/DMs)comparatively)assess)the)
pathway)provided)by)WP5)and)negotiate)to)extract)several)interesting)
largely)agreed)upon)alternatives.
DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5
Robust)pathways)(sequences)of)actions)))are)selected)via)simulationGbased)optimization)of)the)
integrated)model)built)in)WP3)for)different)alternative)combinations/timing))of)planning)
actions)suggested)by)WP3))and)WP4)under)current)and)future)climatic)and)socioGtechnological)
scenarios)(WP3).)Pathway)are)assessed)based)on)the)multiple)indicators)identified)in)WP2.)
The)DAF)provides:
• Set)of)interesting)alternative)pathways)for)each)scenarios)considered.
• A)set)of)robust)alternatives)across)all)the)scenarios.
INDICATORS – WP2
• Evaluation'Indicators'representing)the)different)
stakeholder)groups)are)identified)sector)by)
sector)in)collaboration)with)the)stakeholders)and)
the)decision)makers.)
• Additional)high)level)indicators)can)be)
formulated)in)WP3)to)capture)governance,)
economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.)
MODELS'– WP3/WP4
• Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and)
validated
• Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set)
up)and)validated
• The)model)of)the)different)components)are)
combined))into)an)integrated)model
ACTIONS'and'SCENARIOS'– WP2
• Current)baseline and)future scenarios of)the)
main)drivers)(boundaries))of)the)system)are)
built.
• Planning and)management actions,)including)
infrastructural,)normative)and)operational)
intervention)are)identified)(the)action)will)be)
combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of)
set)of)actions)
Set$of$feasible$actions
Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$
reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$
agricultural$production,…)
Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators
Candidate$pathways
MONITORING'– WP2
• Historical)data)acquisition
• Large)scale)remote)sensing)and)local)scale)
Unmanned)Aerial)Vehicle)surveys
• Ground)truth)by)field)work
• SocioGeconomic)surveys
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT

7. 7
Project structure – The PIP procedure
VNL (virtual)negotiation)lab))– WP6
In)the)virtual)negotiation)lab)the)stakeholder/DMs)comparatively)assess)the)
pathway)provided)by)WP5)and)negotiate)to)extract)several)interesting)
largely)agreed)upon)alternatives.
DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5
Robust)pathways)(sequences)of)actions)))are)selected)via)simulationGbased)optimization)of)the)
integrated)model)built)in)WP3)for)different)alternative)combinations/timing))of)planning)
actions)suggested)by)WP3))and)WP4)under)current)and)future)climatic)and)socioGtechnological)
scenarios)(WP3).)Pathway)are)assessed)based)on)the)multiple)indicators)identified)in)WP2.)
The)DAF)provides:
• Set)of)interesting)alternative)pathways)for)each)scenarios)considered.
• A)set)of)robust)alternatives)across)all)the)scenarios.
economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.)
MODELS'– WP3/WP4
• Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and)
validated
• Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set)
up)and)validated
• The)model)of)the)different)components)are)
combined))into)an)integrated)model
combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of)
set)of)actions)
Set$of$feasible$actions
Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$
reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$
agricultural$production,…)
Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators
Candidate$pathways
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
VNL (virtual)negotiation)lab))– WP6
In)the)virtual)negotiation)lab)the)stakeholder/DMs)comparatively)assess)the)
pathway)provided)by)WP5)and)negotiate)to)extract)several)interesting)
largely)agreed)upon)alternatives.
DAF'(decision)analytic)framework))– WP5
Robust)pathways)(sequences)of)actions)))are)selected)via)simulationGbased)optimization)of)the)
integrated)model)built)in)WP3)for)different)alternative)combinations/timing))of)planning)
actions)suggested)by)WP3))and)WP4)under)current)and)future)climatic)and)socioGtechnological)
scenarios)(WP3).)Pathway)are)assessed)based)on)the)multiple)indicators)identified)in)WP2.)
The)DAF)provides:
• Set)of)interesting)alternative)pathways)for)each)scenarios)considered.
• A)set)of)robust)alternatives)across)all)the)scenarios.
INDICATORS – WP2
• Evaluation'Indicators'representing)the)different)
stakeholder)groups)are)identified)sector)by)
sector)in)collaboration)with)the)stakeholders)and)
the)decision)makers.)
• Additional)high)level)indicators)can)be)
formulated)in)WP3)to)capture)governance,)
economic)and)legal)aspect)of)general)interest.)
MODELS'– WP3/WP4
• Models)of)the)natural)processes)are)set)up)and)
validated
• Models)of)the)socioGeconomic)processes)are)set)
up)and)validated
• The)model)of)the)different)components)are)
combined))into)an)integrated)model
ACTIONS'and'SCENARIOS'– WP2
• Current)baseline and)future scenarios of)the)
main)drivers)(boundaries))of)the)system)are)
built.
• Planning and)management actions,)including)
infrastructural,)normative)and)operational)
intervention)are)identified)(the)action)will)be)
combined)into)pathways:)temporal)sequence)of)
set)of)actions)
Set$of$feasible$actions
Trajectories$of$key$variables$(e.g.$
reservoir$storages,$water$supply,$
agricultural$production,…)
Pathways$and$evaluation$indicators
Candidate$pathways
MONITORING'– WP2
• Historical)data)acquisition
• Large)scale)remote)sensing)and)local)scale)
Unmanned)Aerial)Vehicle)surveys
• Ground)truth)by)field)work
• SocioGeconomic)surveys
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT
STAKEHOLDERS+INVOLVEMENT

8. 8
Project Work Packages structure
WP1
COORDINATION & MANAGEMENT
WP3
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
ANALYSIS & MODELLING
WP4
MODELLING SOCIAL, ECONOMIC &
INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENTS
WP5
DECISION ANALYTIC
FRAMEWORK
WP6
SYNTHESIS & PATHWAY
TO IMPACT
Direct links
Feedbacks
Secondary feedbacks
WP2
DRIVER of WATER-
ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
WP7
DISSEMINATION, OUTREACH & KNOW-HOW TRANSFER

9. 9
Demand
Dynamics of socio-
economic framework
Feedback
Subtasks WP2
ENVIRONMENT
DEMOGRAPHY
ENERGY &
HYDROPOWER
ECONOMYWATER DEMAND
WATER AVAILABILITY
POLITICS AND
INSTITUTIONS
AGRICULTURE
INDUSTRY
D
E
M
A
N
D
S
O
C
I
O
-
E
C
O
N
O
M
I
C
F
R
A
M
E
W
O
R
K
1.1 / 2.1
1.1 / 2.1 1.8 / 2.6
1.7 / 2.5
1.3 / 2.3
1.2 / 2.2
1.5 / 2.7
1.8 / 2.6
1.6 / 2.4
WP2 components and links
Drivers of WEF Nexus
(co-variation of climate and
socio economic drivers)

10. 10
WATER QUALITY
ECOSYSTEMS &
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
HYDROLOGY & WATER
RESOURCES
AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
HYDROPOWER
INTEGRATED MODEL
OF WATER-ENERGY-
LAND NEXUS
WP2
DRIVER of WATER-
ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
WP5
DECISION ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK
WP2
DRIVER of WATER-
ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
Direct links
Feeds
Task and subtasks WP3
3.1.2
3.1.5
3.1.4
3.1.3
3.1.1
3.2
WP3 model links
• “2-core engine”
• cause-effect relationships
• nested scale modelling

11. 11
INDICATORS & VALUE
FUNCTIONS
ROBUST DECISION-
ANALYTIC FRAMEWORK
MODEL
SCENARIO DISCOVERY
ANALYSIS
DESIGN OF ROBUST
ADAPTATION PATHWAYS
WP3
WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS
ANALYSIS & MODELLING
5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
Direct links
Feedbacks
Task WP5
WP5 task links
VNL feedback

12. 12
Two transboundary pilot case studies
ZAMBEZI
• 2,700 km, 1.32 million km2
• longest east flowing river in
Africa
• 9 riparian states (Zambia,
DR Congo, Angola,
Namibia, Botswana,
Zimbabwe, Mozambique,
Malawi, Tanzania).
Four large hydropower dams since the 1970s (Kariba, Cahora Bassa, Itezhi-
Tezhi and Kafue Gorges)
WEF Issues: resource availability vs population density, expansion of irrigated
agriculture, additional hydropower schemes, ecosystem conservation and
expanding tourism.

13. 13
•760km,79,000km2
•2riparianstates(EthiopiaandKenya)
•outflowintoLakeTurkana(endorheic)
Current&potentialissues:
•GibeIIIdamunderconstructionandlarge-
scaleirrigationschemesforcommercialsugar
caneproduction
•excessivewaterwithdrawal
•dropofLakeTurkanawaterlevel
•resettlementsandFDI
Twotransboundarypilotcasestudies
OMO

14. 14
DAFNE Expected Outcomes
Innovative aspects
1. Advances in environmental monitoring: remote sensing will be combined
with UAV-based data collection to supplement the currently limited ground
monitoring capacity at a low cost;
2. Comprehensive modelling and integrated WEF model
3. Water management and planning based on robust Decision Analytic
Framework
4. Methods and tools to facilitate and promote stakeholder engagement and
participation in decision making
5. Improved methods for practical interactions between science and policy
leading to a strong applicability of the above innovations
6. Transfer of knowledge on methods, monitoring and modelling (Geo-portal)

15. www.dafne-project.eu
@dafne_project