Scenario planning is the combination of scenario analysis for strategic purposes and strategic planning based on the outcome of the scenario phase

1. Perumusan Skenario Planning dalam rangka Memperkuat Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan dan Kinerja Organisasi dengan Pendekatan Sistemik Seminar Forum SANKRI Menerawang Pembangunan Wilayah di Masa Depan dengan Scenario Planning Samarinda, 26 November 2007 Drs. H. Dadang Solihin, MA

3. Perencanaan

11. Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (SPPN)

14. Proses Perencanaan Proses top-down dan bottom-up : D ilaksanakan menurut jenjang pemerintahan . Partisipatif : D ilaksanakan dengan melibatkan seluruh stakeholders, antara lain melalui Musrenbang . Proses Teknokratik : M enggunakan metode dan kerangka berpikir ilmiah oleh lembaga atau satuan kerja yang secara fungsional bertugas untuk itu . Pendekatan P olitik : P emilihan Presiden/Kepala Daerah menghasilkan rencana pembangunan hasil proses politik ( public choice theory of planning ), khususnya penjabaran Visi dan Misi dalam RPJM /D.

16. Scenario Planning

21. Perbedaan antara Scenario, Forecast, dan Visions Value based Based on certain relations Uncertainty based Desired future Probable futures Possible, plausible futures Usually qualitative Quantitative Qualitative or quantitative Hide risk Hide risk Illustrate risks Function as triggers for voluntary change Strong in short-term perspective and low degree of uncertainty Strong in medium to long-term perspective and medium to high uncertainties Relatively often used Daily used Rarely used Energizing Needed to dare to decide Needed to know what we decide Visions Forecast Scenario

22. Dimensi Scenario Planning Strategy/ planning Innovation Evaluation Scenario learning Scenario planning Risk-consciousness/ Need for renewal Focus: new business Purpose: prerequisite for change New thinking/ Paradigm shift Focus: old business Strategy development/ Organizational development Business development/ Concept development Purpose: action

23. Karakteristik Traditional Planning dan Scenario Planning Overall, “Nothing else being equal” Partial, “Everything else being equal” Perspective The future is the raison d’etre of the present The past explains the present Explanation Dynamic, emerging structures Statistical, stable structures Relationships Qualitative, not necessarily quantitative, subjective, known or hidden Quantitative, objective, known Variables Active and creative (the future is created) Passive or adaptive (the future will be) Attitude to the future Intention analysis, qualitative and stochastic models (cross-impact and systems analysis) Determinist and quantitative models (economic, mathematical) Method Multiple and uncertain Simple and certain Picture of future Scenario Planning Traditional Planning

27. Level of Strategic Thinking Within paradigm strategies - Strategy as prolongation or modification of the past Paradigm challenging strategies - Scenarios as a source of higher-level strategic thinking and planning Mindless action - Tactical and action planning Future trap - Scenarios as science or intellectual exercise with no connection to strategic action Strategic thinking strong Strategic thinking weak Futures focus weak Futures focus strong

28. Level of Integration Process integration Integrates operational procedures in search for efficient processes Level of integration Time horizon Strategy integration Integrates different businesses and products in search for strategic leverage Future integration Integrates long-term perspectives with mid-term strategies and short-term actions

29. Models for Scenario Project In training/ instructing the organization With a group in the organization Alone The planner works The planner passes responsibility to the group The planner maintains a relationship with the group The planner completes the assignment Relationship Is owned by the organization Is owned and presented by the group Is presented by the planner The Result The planner stays outside the process The planner takes part in and leads the process The planner controls the process Control Organization model Participation model Expert model

30. Scenarios and Uncertainties Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Uncertainty A Uncertainty B

31. Contoh: Daily Newspapers Wait and see Cyberworld 2010 Business as usual High-tech production Strong demand for digital information Newspapers conservative Newspapers IT-active Weak demand for digital information

32. Contoh: Scenario Indonesia 2010 Plot Scenario & Buat Narasinya Pro-fair distribution economic orientation Pro-growth economic orientation Democratic government Authoritarian government

37. Contoh: China Scenarios to 2025

41. Contoh: India Scenarios to 2025

45. Contoh Pandangan dari Jawa Barat: Skenario Indonesia 2010 ( Bandung, 2 Januari 2000 ) Ekonomi Skenario 1 Zamrud Berserakan Skenario 3 Kawah Bergolak Skenario 2 Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai Skenario 4 Fajar Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai Tersibak Terbuka Tertutup Low Government Intervention High Government Intervention

46. Diagram Pohon Skenario Indonesia 2010 Skenario 1: Zamrud Berserakan Skenario 2: Riak Tangis di Nusa Damai Skenario 3: Kawah Bergolak Skenario 4: Fajar Menyingsing, Kabut Mulai Tersibak Tinggi Rendah Tinggi Rendah Tertutup Terbuka

51. Contoh: Indonesia 2025 Prahara Sengsara Nusantara Jaya Bangsa dan negara yang gagal dan terjungkal di tahun 2025 Bangsa dan negara yang tetap miskin dan tertatih-tatih di era globalisasi Bangsa dan negara yang unggul dan menjadi pemain utama di lingkungan global 2025 Skenario 1 Skenario 2 Skenario 3 Kebijakan Nasional Menempatkan Indonesia sebagai negara yang mempunyai standar hidup dan daya saing di atas rata-rata dunia di tahun 2025 Pemerintah 2 Menjadi bangsa yang unggul dengan tetap mempertahankan jati diri dan identitas nasional di lingkungan global pada tahun 2025 Indonesia 1 Visi Indonesia 2025