Presentation for lecture at Georgetown's Center for Security Studies analyzing the long range geopolitical, economic and business impacts resulting from climate change.

2. Learning Objectives
> Explore the long range geopolitical, economic and business
implications of climate change.
> Gauge ‘winners and losers’ from the ultimate zero-sum
game.
> Assess which sectors (and jobs) are ‘investment grade’ and
will still be around.
> Evaluate the differences between risk, readiness and
resilience.

3. Welcome to Friedman’s hot, flat and
crowded world. Climate-related impacts
are being felt the world over:
> 2014 was the hottest instrumentally
recorded year in the U.S.
> 2015 the hottest globally.
> The largest El Niño ever recorded.
> Warmest single day in the Arctic.
> Largest recorded snowfall in
Boston.
> Named freak storms year round.
Where are we now?
*IPCC 2014 Synthesis
Report.

4. We already crossed the tipping point
The problem with reaching a tipping
point, is finding equilibrium again.
> Complex systems fail in complex
ways.
> We have entered an era where even
the brightest minds are perplexed.
> Political, military and business
leaders are now contending with an
uncomfortable ‘new normal.’
> The Pentagon’s national security
strategy reflects climate change as
a serious global threat.
> COP 21 provides faint hope and
global consensus.

5. Radical market changes in CO2 emissions are key
There is reason for cautious optimism
that a new breed of ‘Climate Robber
Barons’ and Tech Titans are emerging.
> Elon Musk is doing more to combat
the scourge of the internal
combustion engine than
government mandated emission
curbs.
> The VW scandal would not have
registered 20 years ago…today, it
brought the world’s largest
automaker to its knees.
> Cheap oil and ‘disinterested’ U.S.
foreign policy sets the stage for
long range changes in the energy
matrix.
> The domino rally of felled resource
giants is underway.

6. Maslow’s Pyramid and climate change
One of the more insidious effects of
climate change is how it is impacting
global food production and staple
commodity prices.
> The spark that ignited the Arab
Spring relates to increased grain
prices added to a combustible mix
of urbanization and youth
unemployment.
> Water, clean air and Maslow’s
Pyramid are the objects of current
and future geopolitical tensions.
> Mass conflict and non-conflict
human resettlement is afoot –
shattering the Schengen agreement
and straining resources and
patience.

7. Long range things get unpleasant
Anthropogenic impacts have irreversibly
changed the Earth’s climate. It’s no
longer a question of if, it’s now a
question of how we will respond.
> Long range models beyond 2100
call for extreme human adaptation
and resettlement.
> Misfortune, resilience and
preparedness are new asset classes
calling for trillions in investments.
Risk is a cost, resilience is an
investment.
> +2 °C was once considered the
tipping point, it now appears to be
the temperature floor rather than
ceiling.
> Private sector firms devoted to this
reality will be the Alphabets and
GEs of the climate change era.

8. The evidence is real and global…

9. …the consequences increasingly severe and frequent

10. What would you do in a world without risk?
Learning Objectives:

19. Welcome to a new geologic
age, the Anthropocene,
which scientist say began in
the 1950s. By 2030 there
will be 8.5 billion people on
the planet.
> More of humanity lives
inside the circle than
outside of it.
> The balance of global
economic output is
titled toward emerging
markets and south of
the Equator – making
this the ‘emerging
market’s century.’
> Homo Urbanus
presents both risks and
opportunities for long
term adaptation.

20. Economic output at risk (GDP@Risk)
Pioneering research from Lloyd’s and Cambridge quantifies the impact of
natural, man-made and emerging risks.

21. Move over Panama Canal…
…there is a Northern open ocean route and undersea land grab underway.

22. Fortress America?
Katrina was a ‘small’ category 3
hurricane and a completely predictable
calamity.
> It struck on the heels of the largest
reorganization of the Federal
Government and the creation of the
Department of Homeland Security.
> All systems (preventive and
recovery-related) failed in a now
famous cascade of errors.
> New Orleans’ pre-Katrina population
has not recovered.
> Internally Displaced People (IDPs)
are not merely found in conflict
regions.

23. Vector-borne risks do not respect geography
The map shows the expected range of Lyme disease…and
can be applied to West Nile, Zika and a wide range of
threats.

24. Dante A. Disparte
Founder & CEO, Risk Cooperative
Chair, Business for American Security
Board Member, American Security
Project
Co-Author, Global Risk Agility and
Decision Making (Macmillan, Q2,
2016)
How to reach me?
ddisparte@riskcooperative.com
LinkedIn | Twitter: @ddisparte