"Predictive Applications are going to steal your job", Lars Trieloff, Director Product Management at Blue Yonder

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"Predictive Applications are going to steal your job: this is what you need to know", Lars Trieloff, Director Product Management at Blue Yonder YouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nzI8NKyv8O0 Watch more from Data Natives 2015 here: http://bit.ly/1OVkK2J Visit the conference website to learn more: www.datanatives.io Follow Data Natives: https://www.facebook.com/DataNatives https://twitter.com/DataNativesConf Stay Connected to Data Natives by Email: Subscribe to our newsletter to get the news first about Data Natives 2016: http://bit.ly/1WMJAqS About the Author: Lars Trieloff is the Director of Product Management at Blue Yonder Analytics. Before joining Blue Yonder, Lars Trieloff was responsible for product management at Adobe and Day Software. Lars has been a Apache Cocoon Committer and has worked as a developer at various organizations like SAP. Lars holds a MSc of Software Systems Engineering from Hasso Plattner Institute in Potsdam.

Données & analyses

Predictive Applications
are going to steal your
job
Lars Trieloﬀ | @trieloﬀ @byanalytics_en

Data-Driven Decisions in Retail
Pricing Replenishment Targeting

Open the valves of
knowledge and let wisdom
flow!

IPredictive Apps are the most
powerful way to use data

Physiological
Safety
Love/Belonging
Esteem
Self-Actualization

— Abraham Maslov – probably never said this. It’s true anyway.
“Data has Human Needs, too”

Collection
Storage
Analysis
Prediction
Decision

Collection
Storage
Analysis
Prediction
Decision
Physiological
Safety
Love/Belonging
Esteem
Self-Actualization

More than half of the apps on
a typical iPhone home screen
are predictive applications.

IIMachines are working faster
and cheaper than humans

Example Pricing
0
4500
9000
13500
18000
Before After
Cost per 1000 price changes

Example Pricing
0
12500
25000
37500
50000
Before After
Cost per 1000 price changes Prices set per night

IIIThey are not just faster and
cheaper, they are also better at
making decisions

Decision Quality
Status Quo Predictive Prescriptive Automation

— The Economist, May 2015
“The best chess players in the
world are‘centaurs’,
amalgamated teams of humans
and algorithms.”

Decision Quality
Status Quo Predictive Prescriptive Automation 'Centaurs'

— Arthur Schopenhauer
“Talent hits a target no one else
can hit; Genius hits a target no
one else can see.”

IVAutomation used to be a“blue
collar problem”, now it is
becoming a“white collar
problem”

— Daniel Susskind, co-author“The Future of the Professions”
“I feel deeply uncomfortable
with that, but it may be that for
some tasks machines can make
these decisions more eﬀectively
and eﬃciently”

21% of my time is spent with
communication & scheduling.
No way a robot could do that.

— Charles Duhigg,“The Power of Habit”
“More than 40 percent of the
actions people performed each
day aren’t actual decisions, but
habits.”

VIMost of our decisions are not
rational

Human Decision Making has
two systems – and only one is
rational.

VIIMost of our fears are not
rational either

— Daniel Kahneman
“Humans tend to infer the
general from the particular but
are reluctant to deduce the
particular from the general.”

VIIIExpect huge inequality in job
losses

— Carl Benedikt Frey, Oxford University
“According to our estimates,
about 47 percent of total US
employment is at risk [of
replacement by automation]”

— William Gibson
“The future is already here —
it's just not very evenly
distributed.”

No fun, lots of risk
Loan oﬃcers
Receptionists
Paralegals
Retail salespeople
Taxi drivers
Security guards
Fast food cooks
Bartenders
Personal financial advisors
Reporters
0 25 50 75 100

No fun, lots of risk
Kreditech
ChihiraAico
eBrevia
E-Commerce
Google Self-Driving Cars
iRobot
Momentum Machines
Monsieur
Pefin
Narrative Sciences
0 25 50 75 100

— Dan Pink
“People are now spending about 40 percent
of their time at work engaged in persuading,
influencing, and convincing others.
Across a range of professions, we are
devoting roughly twenty-four minutes of
every hour to moving others.”

Strategic Impact
0
12,5
25
37,5
50
0 20 40 60 80
Revenue Only Mostly Revenue Both Mostly Profit Profit Only

Predictive Applications are
already here …

And let us do what we can do
best: be human.

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