Environmental Applications of Modelling and Simulation - MODSIM 2009

DE
Design and Environment

Environmental Science Design

‣ Ecology ‣ Multimedia and Film
‣ Systems Analysis ‣ Expositions / Spatial
‣ Remote Sensing ‣ Systems and Processes

www.design-environment.com

Presentation to MODSIM Conference.
Montreal, Quebec. June 10, 2009 Presented by: David N. Oswald © 2009 DE Design and Environment
Inc.

DE Design and Environment

Environmental Applications of
Modelling and Simulation in
Business and Government
Decision Making

Inc.


Modelling, Simulation,
and
Environmental Policy and
Governance

Inc.


Environmental Modelling in Policy and Governance

Problem

Economic and social pressures on natural resources
globally

Climate change is a growing concern politically

Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and
adaptation to a changing climate are priority issues

Inc.



Why modelling and simulation?

Uncertainty in environmental response to climate change
and variability

Variations in resource use - timber, water, hydroelectric
power generation

Global climate models for possible realities in the future

Natural disasters and resource shortages

Educated decisions in relation to natural resources and
environmental processes

Inc.



The models
Process-based

GCMs (global climate / general circulation models)
- Used for supporting international agreements - Kyoto Protocol
- Equations resolved over a discrete framework (grid) from 1° to 5°

Regional Climate Models
- Focused on applications at the meso-scale and informing policies for
regions (provincial, state, nation)
- Focuses on understanding processes and events in regions (eg. Quebec
ice storm)

Ecological - Biogeochemical - Hydrological Models
- Used for understanding environmental processes such as ecological
function and impacts on society
- Useful in applications such as agriculture and water quality

Inc.



The models
Process-based

(IPCC, 2009)
Inc.



The models
Heuristic
A conceptualization of how natural and social systems work

C li m ate Chan g e

Large - s c a le

d i sturban c e

Road Bu il d i ng (S l o w var i ab l e)

Large - s c a le d i st u rbanc e

(Fast v a r i ab le )

Ppt / ET

A mazo n F orest

Ecos y stems

Large Sca le Pat t ern Large Sca le P r ocess

S m a ll Sca le Pattern S m a ll Sca le Process

(fra g m ente d fore s t) (f i re)

Rio Madeiras 7:10 AM July 8, 2006
Deforestat io n Burn i ng to c le ar l and Rio Madeiras 1:00 PM July 8, 2006
(Fast v a r i ab le ) (Fast v a r i ab le )

Rio Madeiras 6:00 PM July 8, 2006
(Oswald, 2008)

Systems Diagram - forces affecting Amazonian ecosystems, feedback mechanisms, and
cross-scale connections
Inc.



The models
Geospatial
Raster and Vector based Geographic Information
- Analyse land pattern
- Estimate social and environmental processes that
drive change

Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission

1. Terra 2. Aqua

Inc.



Policy Application - Nicaragua
Tropical Forests and Climate Change Adaptation - CIFOR (2008)

The Challenge:

Climate change risk and mitigation - adaptation strategies need to be
reported to UNFCCC

Geospatial and process-based models used to assess these risks
-geospatial calculation of land cover types
-projections of climate impacts with GCMs and regional models

Findings:

-Reduced precipitation and possibility of ecosystem state shift in
north east between 2050 and 2100 based on model output

-Total fixed carbon of 72 469 Gg from forests and pasture
restoration. Climate change and land cover change may impact this
store

-Risk to population of water and hydro-electric power scarcity due to
climate change

Inc.



Development - Democratic Republic of Congo
Biotechnology for Development in Africa - Carbon Strategy (2009)
(http://www.bdafoundation.org/)
The Challenge:

- Create enterprises in DRC that capitalize on natural resources
(medicinal plants and biomass) and enhance social and economic well-
being of communities

Relevance of simulation and modelling:
(BDA Foundation, 2009)
- Use geospatial, process, and heuristic models to determine the
amount of carbon sequestered and harvested from forests

- Forest carbon has a price, modelling helps to measure how much
value exists in the forests

(BDA Foundation, 2009)

Inc.


Modelling, Environment,
and
Business Decision Making

Inc.


Environmental Modelling in Business

Problem

Energy industry is evolving rapidly in response to growing
demands, technological innovation, and new regulations

Regulatory frameworks and ‘green’ government programs are
evolving rapidly this year

Energy companies need to examine different scenarios related to
GHG emissions targets, compliance methods, and business goals

Inc.



Why modelling and simulation?

Simulation can be one tool used to examine possible
scenarios that a company can follow

Modelling is one way of attaching metrics to abstract policy
and regulatory rhetoric

These scenarios can augment team-based decision making
and business strategy formulation

Inc.



Energy Sector -
DE - Standard Oil and Gas Client (2009)

The Challenge:

- Find most suitable way of preparing for upcoming GHG regulations considering
lack of clarity in regulations and evolving market conditions for various energy
sources

Relevance of simulation and modelling:

- Use systems analysis with expert knowledge of carbon markets, regulatory
processes and environmental technology

- Simple models used to facilitate multi-stake holder decision making

Inc.



Energy Sector -
Current Scenario:

- 20% reduction in GHG intensity emissions from 2006 levels by 2020

- Compliance options: (1) buy domestic offset credits
(2) buy international offset credits (10%)
(3) invest in environmental technology fund (Start with 70% for
compliance, reduce each year)
(4) adapt and reduce emissions

Inc.



Energy Sector -

Current Scenario:

Inc.



Energy Sector -

Potential Scenario:

- 20% (or greater) reduction in GHG emissions from 2006 levels by 2020 with
a ‘cap and trade’ system

- Radically evolved renewable energy sector augmented by 1 billion dollar
federal Clean Energy Fund

- Changes in regulations and market situation create a dynamic new decision
making context

M + S Strategy:

- Use dialogue as a key technique to determine what strategic priorities are and
constraints to action.

- From there, apply quantitative methods and tools as appropriate.

Inc.



What’s Next?

Inc.



What’s Next?

Wide Open Field? Kind of .... but there are clear areas of focus:

- better output from coupled process models
- integration of remote sensing with process models
- heuristic models that facilitate planning for sustainability in industry

Modelling and Simulation activities and technology can support all of
the above.

Inc.


Thank-you

Merci
For more Information: davido@design-environment.com
www.design-environment.com

Inc.

Environmental Applications of Modelling and Simulation - MODSIM 2009

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