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Real Estate Analysis & Benchmark 121214

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Real Estate Analysis & Benchmark 121214

  1. 1. Total Residential Single Family Condo Townhouse Real Estate and Economic Report Sales New Listings Sales to New Listings Ratio TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% 8,141 11.14% 11,127 14.87% 74.21% ‐4.04% 7,163 7.84% $ 4 76,071 4.16% 4,041 4.07% 5,338 7.90% 77.59% ‐3.87% YEAR TO DATE (2014): from January, 2014 to November, 2014 2014 Total Residential Single Family Condo 1,051 59.29% $ 3 23,703 6.08% AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% 940 25.03% $ 3 24,209 8.50% TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% 16,495 6.23% 23,226 11.05% 71.69% ‐4.96% Townhouse 3,380 12.67% 4,738 21.92% 72.58% ‐6.53% 470 5.75% $ 3 63,997 6.41% 2,573 ‐5.89% $ 5 52,183 6.93% 4,535 19.69% 6,991 29.92% 64.70% ‐8.94% 6,894 ‐3.89% $ 4 74,650 5.30% 32,898 13.27% 48,134 11.23% 68.65% 1.00% 544 28.02% $ 3 63,351 2.53% 895 18.86% 1,171 25.51% 77.86% ‐5.65% 2,705 5.86% $ 5 61,007 9.00% 1,141 18.36% 1,764 39.78% 65.11% ‐15.56% Active Listings Average Price - Calgary Real Estate Market - REPORTING PERIOD: from September, 2014 to November, 2014 Single Family Home Annual Average Price (Calgary) $287,635 $401,997 $470,158 $456,119 $440,592 $459,035 $465,202 $479,880 $517,344 $552,183 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 $650,000 $550,000 $450,000 $350,000 $250,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 0 Single Family Home Comparisons (Calgary) Active Listings (Avg.) New Listings (Total) Sales (Total) 100 50 0 Jan, 11 Mar, 11 May, 11 Jul, 11 Sep, 11 Nov, 11 Jan, 12 Mar, 12 May, 12 Jul, 12 Sep, 12 Nov, 12 Jan, 13 Mar, 13 May, 13 Jul, 13 Sep, 13 Nov, 13 Jan, 14 Mar, 14 May, 14 Jul, 14 Sep, 14 Nov, 14 Average Days on Market (Calgary)
  2. 2. - Edmonton Real Estate Market - REPORTING PERIOD: from September, 2014 to November, 2014 Total Residential Single Family Condo Townhouse Average Price Y/Y% Sales New Listings Sales to New Listings Ratio TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% AVERAGE 3,919 0.64% 5,660 8.87% 73.67% ‐3.49% $ 373,188 2,534 5.89% 3,387 8.91% 76.67% ‐2.13% $ 435,105 5.52% 1,175 ‐1.84% 1,643 2.05% 70.33% ‐6.64% 8.07% 320 31.15% 425 18.72% 75.33% 7.62% $ 352,644 7.06% YEAR TO DATE (2014): from January, 2014 to November, 2014 2014 Total Residential Single Family Condo $ 256,717 6.46% AVERAGE Y/Y% $ 366,245 5.34% $ 431,231 5.65% TOTAL Y/Y% TOTAL Y/Y% AVERAGE Y/Y% 16,607 2.32% 26,392 8.28% 64.09% ‐4.86% 10,222 2.23% 15,836 8.82% 65.36% ‐5.64% 4,960 3.64% 7,962 3.08% 62.09% ‐1.73% $ 250,961 4.40% Townhouse 1,260 14.86% 1,802 19.18% 70.00% ‐4.11% $ 345,243 4.82% Single Family Home Annual Average Price (Edmonton) $370,240 $383,226 $379,485 $392,446 $409,438 $429,007 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 $440,000 $420,000 $400,000 $380,000 $360,000 $340,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 YTD 1,155 543 1,354 737 1,737 1,663 989 1,084 1,943 941 854 773 782 1,264 1,136 419 528 623 923 1,022 648 983 857 863 1,179 1,198 1,125 436 485 673 917 692 924 967 850 1,147 1,213 1,218 1,092 1,627 717 1,455 1,380 1,266 1,082 769 409 955 1,115 1,467 1,569 1,911 1,586 1,491 1,349 1,268 1,059 783 415 1,070 1,108 1,585 1,818 2,085 1,828 1,602 1,353 1,337 1,256 794 0 Single Family Home Comparisons (Edmonton) Sales (Total) New Listings (Total) 100 50 0 Jan, 11 Mar, 11 May, 11 Jul, 11 Sep, 11 Nov, 11 Jan, 12 Mar, 12 May, 12 Jul, 12 Sep, 12 Nov, 12 Jan, 13 Mar, 13 May, 13 Jul, 13 Sep, 13 Nov, 13 Jan, 14 Mar, 14 May, 14 Jul, 14 Sep, 14 Nov, 14 Average Days on Market (Edmonton)
  3. 3. - Alberta Economic Indicators - *the accuracy of the following information is based on current available data from: http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/ and RBC Economic Outlook. AVERAGE Y/Y% TOTAL Gross Domestic Product 3.90% 5.41% Net Migration No Data No (Year 2013 to 2014) #REF! Data Housing starts September to November Y/Y% Unemployment rate 4.50% 0.00% 6,857 27.41% Average Weekly Earnings $1,157.21 3.02% Building permits 1,615,867,000 6.00% 16.00% in Alberta 26,662 in Canada 172,069 13.47% WCS Oil Price (WTI) $88.81 US/bbl -11.40% Vehicle Sales 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Y/Y Growth (%) Alberta's GDP Compared to Canada (Year / Year) Canada AB 5.50% 4.60% 4.60% 4.50% 3.90% 7.20% 7.10% 6.90% 6.60% 0 0 0 0 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Value Alberta's Unemployment Rate (%) Compared to Canada (year / Year) AB Canada 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Alberta's Housing Starts Alberta's Average Weekly Earnings $692.60 $716.74 $740.61 $782.93 $822.09 $870.57 $922.23 $948.49 $990.78 $1,033.89 $1,070.31 $1,107.75 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 6.80% 7.00% 6.90% 2.50% 7.90% 5.20% 3.20% 4.40% 4.10% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F Y/Y Growth (%) AB vs CND Retail Sales growth Canada AB
  4. 4. - Canada Economic Indicators - Statistics for the period between SEPTEMBER, 2014 and NOVEMBER, 2014 *the accuracy of the following information is based on current available data from: http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-data/pdf/canind.pdf 44% 22% ‐44% 27% 24% 14% 19% 53% 34% 11% ‐12% 44% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% ‐60% Canada Real GDP Growth Rate (Monthly) 7% 14% 17% ‐25% ‐4% 24% 14% ‐16% ‐5% 23% ‐6% 42% 24% ‐6% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% ‐10% ‐20% ‐30% Canada Unemployment Growth Rate (%) 201.33 194.93 186.67 177.11 190.92 157.43 195.69 195.64 198.29 203.00 196.35 197.36 183.60 250 200 150 100 50 0 Housing Starts 8.58% 9.84% 10.67% 9.54% 9.51% 6.68% 7.77% 7.11% 6.96% 5.22% 5.25% 5.58% 6.83% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Average Housing Prices (Y/Y %) ‐24% 0% ‐24% 33% 81% 56% 32% 48% 8% ‐16% 0% 8% 8% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% ‐20% ‐40% Consumer Price Index (Y/Y %) 0 0 0 0 0 Motor Vehicle Sales % change 1.04 1.06 1.06 1.11 1.11 1.11 1.10 1.08 1.07 1.09 1.09 1.12 1.13 1.14 120% 115% 110% 105% 100% 95% Canadian $ to US $
  5. 5. 150 100 50 0 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 The above graph shows that in July 2008 oil was at $133.37 it dropped to a low of $39.09 in Feb of 2009 (71% drop in value). In July 2008 the average Calgary single family house price was $456,380 and in January 2009 the average price dropped to $413,049 (9.5% drop in value). Notes: Crude oil prices have dropped from $90 to $58.60 in the last 90 days The TSX S&P has dropped 10.5% in the last 90 days. Calgary and Edmonton real estate listings are on the rise, while sales are on the decline. (Seasonal impact) TD Bank estimates CND real estate is 10% overvalued, IMF 10%, Fitch Ratings 20%, The Economist 30% Bank of Canada is monitoring 3 key factors with relation to the finanical system: 1. Elevated level of household indebtedness 2. Inbalace in the householder market 3. Investor risk taking and illiquidity in financial markets Other Bank of Canada comments: Housing prices in Canada have had more growth than income. Low mortgage rates continue to stimulate the Canadian real estate market. CND resale of homes has picked up while housing starts have remained declined. Resources http://www.rbc.com/economics/economic-data/index.html http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/fsr-december2014.pdf http://economicdashboard.albertacanada.com/ WTI Prices 0 Calgary Single Family Average House Price

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