Global Peace Index

1. Peace, Economics
and Change
Steve Killelea, Executive Chairman
Institute for Economics and Peace
Sussex University, Brighton
Wednesday 4th March, 2015

6. Many Unprecedented Challenges Facing
Humanity
Challenges are global, urgent and require unparalleled co-operation
Peace is the prerequisite for solving these problems

7. 2014 Global Peace Index Results
Seven Year Trends in Peace
The Global Costs of Violence
Measuring Positive Peace
Assessing Country Risk
Agenda

8. INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMICS AND PEACE
The Institute for Economics and Peace is an
independent, not-for-profit, think tank dedicated to
building a greater understanding of the key drivers and
measures of peace and to identifying the economic
benefits that increased peacefulness can deliver.
Sydney, New York, Mexico City
“
”

9. DEFINING PEACE
Measure two forms of Peace, “Positive Peace”
and “Negative Peace”
Peace is more than the absence of war
Negative Peace defines peace as the “Absence
of Violence” includes all forms of violence
This definition allows for measurements of both
internal and external peacefulness
“Positive Peace” is uncovered via the
correlation of other data sets, attitudinal
surveys and indexes

10. Defining and Measuring Peace
Actual peace
Measures
Crime
Suppression
Military
War
Positive Peace
Derived through
statistical analysis of
datasets, indices
and attitudes with
the GPI
The perfect state would have no Police, Jails or Crime
GPI
Positive Peace Index

11. THE GLOBAL PEACE INDEX
Now in its eight year
Ranks 162 countries
According to their relative states of peace
Using 22 indicators weighted on a 1-5 scale
Developed by the Institute for Economics &
Peace
Guided and overseen by a Panel of
International Experts
With data collected and collated by the
Economist Intelligence Unit

12. INDICATORS
5 measures of ongoing domestic and international conflict
including: number of conflicts fought and number of deaths
from organised conflict
10 measures of societal safety and security
including: number of displaced people, number of terrorist
acts, number of homicides, number of jailed population
7 measures of militarization
including: military expenditure, number of armed service
personnel, ease of access to small weapons

13. GPI 2014 RESULTS
The 10 Most Peaceful Countries
Rank Country Score
1 Iceland 1.189
2 Denmark 1.193
3 Austria 1.200
4 New Zealand 1.236
5 Switzerland 1.258
6 Finland 1.297
7 Canada 1.306
8 Japan 1.316
9 Belgium 1.354
10 Norway 1.371

14. GPI 2014 RESULTS
The 10 Least Peaceful Countries
Rank Country Score
162 Syria 3.65
161 Afghanistan 3.416
160 South Sudan 3.397
159 Iraq 3.377
158 Somalia 3.368
157 Sudan 3.362
156 Central African Rep. 3.331
155 Dem. Rep. of Congo 3.213
154 Pakistan 3.107
153 North Korea 3.071

15. 2014 Global Peace Index Results
Seven Year Trends in Peace
The Global Costs of Violence
Measuring Positive Peace
Assessing Country Risk
Agenda

16. SEVEN YEAR TRENDS IN PEACE
Safety and Security score – 5.3% decline,
 major reason for deterioration
Militarisation Score – No Change
Ongoing Conflict Score – 4.7%
Terrorist activity and Homicide largest declines
53 countries improved, 103 countries deteriorated
Greatest deterioration in the MENA and Sub-
Saharan Africa regions

17. TRENDS BY CATEGORY
BIGGEST DETERIORATIONS BY CATEGORY 2008-2014
SAFETY & SECURITY Score Change
ONGOING
CONFLICT
Score Change MILITARISATION Score Change
Syria 4.18 2.03 Syria 3.60 1.80 Afghanistan 2.50 0.73
South Sudan 3.76 0.88 Ukraine 3.20 1.60 Syria 2.62 0.68
Central African Rep. 3.94 0.84 South Sudan 3.80 1.20 Norway 2.02 0.66
BIGGEST IMPROVEMENTS BY CATEGORY
SAFETY & SECURITY Score Change
ONGOING
CONFLICT
Score Change MILITARISATION Score Change
Saudi Arabia 2.03 -0.49 Chad 2.60 -1.00 Montenegro 1.46 -0.72
Burundi 2.53 -0.44 Georgia 2.40 -0.60 Georgia 1.64 -0.56
Georgia 2.38 -0.41 Israel 2.40 -0.60 Armenia 1.64 -0.50

18. POPULATION DYNAMICS AND PEACE
1.500
1.700
1.900
2.100
2.300
2.500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Very Large (>100 million)
Large (Up to 100 million)
Medium (up to 25 Million)
Small (<5 million)

19. GLOBAL POPULATION BY PEACE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
GPIRank
GPI Score
11 Least Peaceful
Countries
• 560 million people
• 200 million live on
less than $2 a day

20. GLOBAL HOMICIDE RATES
The average country homicide rate has been
increasing since 2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
AverageCountryHomicideRate
Intentional Homicide killed
437,000 people across
the world in 2012
-UNODC

21. 0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
NumberofDeaths
Global Total
Rest of
the World
Iraq,
Afghanistan,
Pakistan,
Nigeria and
Syria
September 11
Syrian Civil War
beginsUS troop surge
US invade IRAQ
U.S. invade
Afghanistan
Five times more people died from terrorism in 2013 than 2000
Source: START GTD
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM, 2000-2013

22. NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH 50+ DEATHS
FROM TERRORISM
13
16
13 14 13
17
13 14
19
16 16
13
15
24
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NumberofCountries
2013 recorded the largest number of countries with more than 50 deaths
over the last 14 years
Source: START GTD

23. TARGETS OF TERRORISM
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Private Citizens & Property Police
Government (General) Business
Transportation Religious Figures/Institutions
The primary target of terrorism has consistently been private property
and citizens
Source: START GTD
Private Citizens
Police

24. CORRELATES OF TERRORISM
Factors most closely associated with terrorism:
 State sponsored violence – torture, killings
 Intergroup cohesion
 Legitimacy of the State
 High levels of other forms of violence
Factors not statistically associated with terrorism:
 Poverty measures
 Mean years of schooling
 Life expectancy
 Economic Indicators
Terrorism is linked to political grievances rather than poverty measures

25. BELIEFS OF FOUR DEADLIEST GROUPS
All 4 groups follow some form of Wahhabi theologies
They all reject the concept of Western education
Like rain. We believe it is a creation of God rather than an evaporation caused by the
sun that condenses and becomes rain ... Like saying the world is a sphere. If it runs
contrary to the teachings of Allah, we reject it. We also reject the theory of Darwinism
– Mohammed Yusuf, Founder, Boko Haram
Groups have differing goals and aims
Moderate forms of Sunnis theologies need to be cultivated –
difficult for West to influence
All of the deadliest groups share a common basic set of beliefs

26. There are large variations on the number of fighters in the major terrorist
groups
NUMBER OF FIGHTERS
0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000
Taliban
ISIL
Al-Qa'ida
(all major affiliates)
Boko Haram
Low estimate High estimate
Sources: Various – see 2014 GTI

27. 2014 Global Peace Index Results
Seven Year Trends in Peace
The Global Costs of Violence
Measuring Positive Peace
Assessing Country Risk
Agenda

28. Global Peace Index vs GDP per capita
Small improvements in peace can be
associated with substantial
improvements in per capita income
Source: World Bank, IEP

29. A Sound Business Environment
The most peaceful countries consistently tended to have lower
levels of inflation.
Source Index Indicator Year Correlation Coefficient
World Bank
Ease of Doing
Business
Overall Rank 2011 0.542
Trading Across Borders 2011 0.524
Closing a Business 2011 0.512
World Economic Forum
Global
Competitivenes
s Report
Technological Readiness 2011 -0.643
Institutions 2011 -0.628
Basic Requirements 2011 -0.624
Higher Education and Training 2011 -0.598
Goods Market Efficiency 2011 -0.597
Overall Score 2011 -0.597
Infrastructure 2011 -0.588
Efficiency Enhancers 2011 -0.578
Innovation and Sophistication
Factors
2011 -0.573
Health and Primary Education 2011 -0.512
Heritage Foundation
Index of
Economic
Freedom
Property Rights 2011 -0.673
Overall Score 2011 -0.602
Business Freedom 2011 -0.566
Financial Freedom 2011 -0.514
Economist Intelligence Unit GDP per capita 2011 -0.581
Legatum Foundation
Legatum
Prosperity Index
Overall Score 2010 -0.756
Entrepreneurship and Opportunity
Sub-Index Score
2010 -0.683
Capital Per Worker 2010 -0.606
Economy Sub-Index Score 2010 -0.551
World Bank
World
Development
Indicators
R+D Expenditure 2010 -0.582
Frazer Institute
Economic
Freedom of the
World Index
Overall Score 2008 -0.585

30. A Sound Business Environment
The most peaceful countries consistently tended to have lower
levels of inflation.

31. Violence and GDP per Capita
Growth
Countries that have improved levels of internal peace since
1996 have had larger GDP per Capita growth than countries
that have deteriorated.
Data Sources: World Bank, IEP.
3rd Quartile
Median
1st Quartile
3rd Quartile
Median
1st Quartile
The distribution of GDP per
Capita growth since 1996 is
much higher in those
countries that have also
improved peace.

32. Positive Peace and GDP
Countries that improved in positive peace since 1996 have had
larger GDP per Capita growth than countries that have
deteriorated.
3rd Quartile
Median
1st Quartile
3rd Quartile
Median
1st Quartile
The distribution of GDP per
Capita growth since 1996 is
much higher in those
countries that have also
improved positive peace.
Data Sources: World Bank, IEP
Azerbaijan

33. Cost of Violence Methodology
 Fourteen different domains
 10 GPI measures
 4 Other Domains
 Costs based on established studies
 Mainly direct costs, some indirect costs
 Costs which fall due in current year
 Costs scaled by per capita income to other
countries
 Multiplier factor of 1 used

34. Estimated to be US$9.8 trillion or
11.3% of Gross World Product in 2013
Individual Estimates for 162 Countries
Allows cost benefit analysis
Thirteen dimensions measured
Increase of 3.8% from 2012
GLOBAL COST OF VIOLENCE

35. GLOBAL COST OF VIOLENCE IN 2013 -
BROKEN DOWN
VIOLENCE TYPE
DIRECT
COST ($
BILLION)
Military expenditure $ 2,535
Homicides $ 720
Internal security $ 625
Violent crime $ 325
Private security $ 315
Incarceration $ 185
GDP losses from conflict $ 130
Deaths from internal conflict $ 30
Fear $ 25
Terrorism $ 10
UN Peacekeeping $ 5
IDPs and refugees $ 2
Deaths from external conflict $ 1
Total (direct only) $4,908
Total (including 1x1 peace multiplier) $9,816
One of the large
areas of increase is
related to Chinese
military expenditure

36. 10 HIGHEST COUNTRIES ON VIOLENCE
EXPENDITURE
RANK COUNTRY
COST IN
USD 2013
($ MIL
PPP)
COST PER
PERSON
(USD 2013
PPP)
% Of
GDP
1 North Korea $10,205 $410 25.5%
2 Syria $25,960 $1,160 24.1%
3 Afghanistan $8,305 $280 23.5%
4 Liberia $625 $150 21.6%
5 South Sudan $3,120 $290 21.2%
6 Honduras $7,525 $950 19.2%
7 Zimbabwe $1,425 $105 19.0%
8 Iraq $43,970 $1,350 17.7%
9 Somalia $1,015 $100 17.2%
10 Cote d' Ivoire $6,660 $335 15.2%

37. Top Ten countries with highest
Violence containment per person
Country Violence
Containment
cost per person
(USD 2012)
GDP Per
capita
% of
per
capita
GDP
United States of America $5,485 $42,486 13%
Oman $3,610 $25,330 14%
Qatar $3,575 $77,987 5%
Kuwait $3,275 $47,935 7%
Israel $3,240 $26,719 12%
Singapore $3,175 $53,591 6%
Libya $3,175 $13,300 24%
Bahrain $2,745 $28,200 10%
Trinidad and Tobago $2,535 $22,142 11%
Saudi Arabia $2,360 $21,430 11%

38. Peace and Violence Containment
The most peaceful states in Mexico will always have less violence
containment spending
AGU
BCN
BCSCAM
COA
COL
CHP
CHH
DIF
DUR
GUA
GRO
HID
JALMEX
MIC
MOR
NAY
NLE
OAX
PUE
QUE
ROO
SLP
SIN
SON
TAB
TAM
TLA
VER
YUC
ZAC
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
Perpersonviolencecontainmentcosts
Thousands
MORE PEACEFUL - MPI Score - LESS PEACEFULL
R = 0.872

39. Mexico Peace and Income
Per capita growth five most peace states and five least
peaceful states

40. POVERTY, RISK AND IMPACT
COUNTRY IEP RISK SCORE
PER PERSON
IMPACT OF
MINOR RISE IN
VIOLENCE ($
PPP)
PER CAPITA
RISK ($ PPP)
(LIKELIHOOD X
IMPACT)
PEOPLE WHO COULD
DROP BELOW $1.25 A
DAY
Chad 74/100 $10.2 $7.6 5.5M
Myanmar 59/100 $10.6 $6.2 *
Angola 19/100 $31.0 $5.9 3.2M
Zambia 86/100 $ 5.5 $4.7 *
Papua New
Guinea
41/100 $10.3 $4.2 *
Haiti 78/100 $ 4.7 $3.7 *
Nepal 70/100 $ 4.8 $3.3 0.4M
Kenya 42/100 $ 7.0 $3.0 1.5M
Benin 41/100 $ 6.0 $2.5 0.5M
Uganda 32/100 $ 6.0 $1.9 0.9M

41. 2014 Global Peace Index Results
Seven Year Trends in Peace
The Global Costs of Violence
Measuring Positive Peace
Assessing Country Risk
Agenda

42. The Pillars of Peace:
“The attitudes, institutions and
structures that help create and
sustain a peaceful society”

43. The Pillars of Peace
The attitudes, institutions and structures that sustain a peaceful society
Analysed over 4,700 variables covering:
 Macro-economy;
 Social relations and attitudes;
 Economic and social development;
 Economic and social integration;
 The functioning and structure of government
 External Relations

44. The Pillars of Peace
The attitudes, institutions and structures that sustain a peaceful
society
Free Flow
of
Information
Peace &
Resilience
Good
Relations
with
Neighbours
Acceptance
of the
Rights of
Others
Equitable
Distribution
of
Resources
Sound
business
environmen
t
Well
functioning
governmen
t
A High-
Level of
Human
Capital
Low-Levels
of
Corruption

45.  Peaceful Societies are more Resilient
 Pillars of Peace Operate as a System
 Pillars of Peace are statistically
associated with:
 Strong Business Environments
 Gender Equality
 Transparency
 Better personal Relations
Optimum Environment for
Human Potential to Flourish

46. Positive Peace Index Indicators
INSERT MAP
Positive Peace Index 2013

47. Weak Pillars = Greater Vulnerability
Big fallers with
positive peace
deficits in 2008:
Syria
Rwanda
Madagascar
Egypt

48. Peace, MDGs and Development
Iraq
Haiti
Guinea-Bissau
Montenegro
Liberia
Kenya
Burundi
Papua New
Guinea
UkraineTanzania
Zimbabwe
Gabon
Somalia
Central African
Republic
Democratic
Republic of the
CongoCote d'Ivoire
Afghanistan
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1.8 2.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.3
MDGProgressScore2010-2011
2008 Global Peace Index
Developing nations with stronger pillars have
achieve more of their MDGs.

49. 2014 Global Peace Index Results
Seven Year Trends in Peace
The Global Costs of Violence
Measuring Positive Peace
Assessing Country Risk
Agenda

50. The Pillars of Peace
Framework provides an fluid environment for the achievement of
many of the gaols that civil societies consider important
Framework
Correlates with:
 Higher GDP
 Lower inflation
 More ecologically
sound
 Strong business
environment
 Higher levels of
human capital
 Perform well on
human
development
indicators
Source: Pillars of Peace, Institute for Economics and Peace, 2013

51. OVERALL VISION
IEP’s Risk Tool uses a ‘Risk and Opportunity’ approach to assess
country risk
Risk
Opportunity

52. CONCEPTUAL BASIS OF RISK TOOL
Measure
Violence
Understand
Positive
Peace
Measure
Positive
Peace
Differences
Equals Risk
or
Opportunity
Pillars of Peace is the contextual framework underlining
Positive Peace
Positive Peace and Actual peace align over the
longer term

53. RISK AND RESILIENCE
Strong link between violence and positive peace
Denmark
SwedenIceland
CanadaGermany United Kingdom
France
United States of
America
Portugal
Chile South KoreaItaly
Uruguay Greece IsraelCosta RicaQatar
Croatia
Malaysia
BahrainOmanArgentina Macedonia (FYR)
South AfricaBrazilGhana MexicoPeru
GeorgiaMongolia ThailandKazakhstanJordan ColombiaTurkey
Saudi Arabia Ukraine
VietnamIndonesia RussiaChina
Ecuador Algeria PhilippinesSenegal
India
EgyptTanzania
BelarusZambia MaliCambodia SyriaMadagascar Bangladesh RwandaNepal UgandaLaos IranLiberiaSierra Leone Mauritania EthiopiaHaiti Pakistan
YemenDRC
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
POSITIVEPEACEINDEXRANK2010
GLOBAL PEACE INDEX RANK 2014

54. Countries at Most Risk in 2008
Using Positive Peace Model
Countries with weak institutions in 2008
Bangladesh Belarus
Bolivia Burkina Faso
Cameroon China
Egypt Gabon
Ghana Indonesia
Iran Jordan
Kazakhstan Laos
Madagascar Malawi
Malaysia Morocco
Mozambique Nicaragua
Rwanda Romania
Syria Senegal
Tunisia Tanzania
Vietnam Ukraine
Zambia Yemen
Most countries with institutions weaker than their peace in 2008
deteriorated by 2012
Red = Deteriorated
Green = No Deterioration
Source: IEP

55. IEP RISK MODELS
IEP presents two risk models in GPI 2014 report
Positive Peace Deficit Model –
Analyses global outliers based on the
difference between positive and
actual peace
Like Country Model – Analyses
historical peace trends of a country
and compares them to the history of
other countries of similar positive
peace levels

56. IEP RISK COMPARISON
Prominent fragility measures compared to IEP risk models
for 2008 to 2014.
Largest
Falls
2008-2013
Change in
GPI Score
World
Bank as
Fragile in
2008
Failed
States
Index
2008
State
Fragility
Index
2008
IEP
Models
Syria -70% No Yes No Yes
Libya -39% No No No Yes
Rwanda -31% No No No Yes
Madagascar -27% Yes No No Yes
Oman -23% No No No Yes
Tunisia -21% No No No Yes
Cote d'Ivoire -19% No Yes No Yes
Yemen -18% No Yes No Yes
Mexico -18% No No No No
Bahrain -17% No No No Yes
Identified 1/10 3/10 0/10 9/10

57. RESULTS OF RISK TOOL ANALYSIS
2014
Countries most at risk of small to medium deteriorations in
peace
COUNTRY GOVERNMENT INCOME
IEP COUNTRY RISK
SCORE (OUT OF 100)
Zambia Hybrid regime
Lower middle
income
86
Haiti Hybrid regime Low income 78
Argentina Flawed democracy
Upper middle
income
76
Chad
Authoritarian
regime
Low income 74
Bosnia And
Herzegovina
Hybrid regime
Upper middle
income
72
Nepal Hybrid regime Low income 70
Burundi Hybrid regime Low income 70
Georgia Hybrid regime
Lower middle
income
70
Liberia Hybrid regime Low income 67
Qatar
Authoritarian
regime
High income 65

58. IEP RESEARCH OUTPUTS