A presentation made on the "Urbanisation Trends in Cambodia, Past present and Future" at the international Conference on " Human Rights Based Spatial Planning" November 4-5 2015, in Phnom Penh Cambodia. Organised by PiN and STT with European Union support.
It indicates that current consideration of urbanisation are falling far behind the realities, which now see's 30% of the national population living in an urban area, which will increase to 38% ~7 million by 2030 and exceed 50% of the population by 2050. Which poses significant challenges for urban planning, development and management
CIUS presentation HRBSP conference -Urbanisation in Cambodia,
1. Urbanisation in Cambodia,
Past, Present & Future Trends,
Influencing Factors and Challenges
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Declan O’Leary CIUS Adviser
Presentation given at the
Human Rights Based Spatial Planning Conference,
Phnom Penh, November 4-5, 2015
Organised by: People in Need & Sahmakum Teang Tnaut and supported by the European Union
2. Contents
1. CIUS Who We are
2. Global to Local
1) Global and Regional
Urbanisation
3. Historical Urbanisation
A Quick Look Back to Antiquity,
the Angkorian City Complex
Urban Decline
4. Contemporary Urbanisation
5. What is Considered Urban
1. Reclassification of Urban Areas
2004, 2011
6. What Are the Drivers of
Urbanisation
The Demographic Profile
Rural Urban Migration
7. The Present Situation
The Urban Distribution
8. Projections of Urbanisation in
Cambodia
The Rapidly Changing Influence
of Urbanisation in Cambodia
9. Urban Areas as Growth Centres
(Urban Drivers 2)
10. Conclusions
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3. CIUS-Cambodian Institute for
Urban Studies –Who we are
• CIUS is a newly established independent research and
advisory organisation focusing on urban related issues
in Cambodia and the region.
It emerges from a long running informal network of
experts & professionals involved & engaged with
urban related development.
It is current located at Pannasatra University of
Cambodia’s (PUC), Toul Kork Campus, who have
kindly provided much appreciated office space
during the start-up phase.
More information at
• Facebook Page: Cambodian Institute for Urban Studies” (CIUS),
• CIUS can be contacted at cambodian.cius@gmail.com
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4. Global & Regional Urbanisation 1
• Since 2007 more than half of the World’s Population
(~7,000 Million) now lives in an Urban Area.
– The most recent estimates indicate that >54% of
the world’s population of ~7.3 billion were urban
based in 2014 (WUP 2014).
– Asia, despite its lower level of urbanization, is
currently home to ~55% of the world’s urban
population.
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5. Global & Regional Urbanisation 2
• The world’s urban population
has grown rapidly, from 746
million in 1950, to 3.9 billion in
2014.
• It is projected to reach ~5
billion by 2030 and 6.3 billion
by 2015.
• Adding ~2.5 billion people to
the world’s urban population by
2050,
• With nearly 90% of the
increase concentrated in
Asia & Africa.
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6. Global & Regional Urbanisation 3
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UNESCAP/ UNHABITAT (2015) The State of Asian & Pacific Cities 2015
7. Global & Regional Urbanisation 4
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So by 2050, the world will be one third rural (34%) & two-
thirds urban (66%). Roughly the reverse of the global rural-
urban population distribution of the mid-20th century.
9. Urbanisation During the Angkorian
Period
• It is theorised that the Angkorian City Complex in
current day Siem Reap, at its peak during the ~12-
13th Centuries
Was home to between 750,000-1,000,000 people
(and maybe even more).
Covered an estimated 3,000km2,
Considering that contemporary Phnom Penh
covers roughly ~680km2.
• This would have made it one of the largest, if not
the largest settlements in the Pre Industrial World at
that time
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10. Its Urban Decline 1
But within a couple of hundred years it was mostly
abandoned, why?
It would appear that the sprawling city complex area, had
adversely altered the ecosphere which sustained the city, which
made Angkor extremely climatically and socially vulnerable , by
Progressively transforming the land scape to expand the city ‘s
(costly) infrastructure (incl. 1,000 km2 of water management
systems) and agricultural system to sustain the city, which
increasing erosion and deposition in the important irrigation
systems which became clogged.
Compounded by a period of regional climate change
involving prolonged droughts and intense monsoons during
the 14th and 15th Century according to regional tree ring
studies covering the period 1030-2010 (in Buckley et.al in PNAS
vol.107, #15, 2010).
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11. Urban Decline 2
• This combinations of episodic water shortage
and extreme flows from the late 13th -15th
centuries
– Likely led to cascading consequences that
destabilised the city’s dependent systems to feed
and sustain itself.
– Even though it is evident that efforts were made to
adapt the irrigation infrastructure to try and cope
with the changes, which were unsuccessful .
– This weakened the Angkorian Capital’s ability to
sustain itself and exposed it to external threats.
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13. Contemporary Urbanisation 1
• Urbanisation in Cambodia has a number of
unique attributes, in that
– In living memory all the major urban areas were
emptied of the majority of their populations in 1975.
– Ownership claims of property prior to 1975 were
extinguished in 1989.
– The percentage of urbanisation is comparatively low
but rapidly increasing.
• With resulting changes in the social and economic
landscape of the country.
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14. What do we Consider Urban
Previous Definition of Urban
Areas (Pre 2004)
The previous designation of
urban areas was based on
administrative criteria, namely:
i. All provincial towns (& the
districts containing them)
ii. Only Four of Phnom Penh’s
(then) 7 districts (the other
three were then considered rural)
iii. The provinces of Sihanoukville,
Kep &Pailin, as they had been
designated Krongs or
municipalities (since the 1960s)
though never developed.
• This led to exaggerated figures
for urban areas, as the districts
were often large and mainly of
rural character.
• The designation didn’t allow for
agglomeration of areas
abutting each other, or
• Did not capture other areas with
high population numbers,
densities & urban characteristics
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15. Reclassification of Urban Areas 1
2004 Reclassification (RC2004)
Criteria used
• Population density >200 persons square kilometer
• % of male employment in agriculture <50%
• Total population of the commune exceeding 2,000
persons
Resulting in
• 162 Communes/ Sangkats considered Urban, in 37
Identified urban areas (ranging in size from ~5000 to over
100,000 persons)
• Adjusted the % of the popn living in an urban areas from
16% to 18% in 1998
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16. Reclassification of Urban Areas 2
2011 Reclassification (RC2011)
Criteria used
• Population density >200 persons square kilometer
• % of population (both sexes) in agriculture <50%
• Total population of the commune exceeding 2,000
Resulting in
• 289 Communes / Sangkats considered as Urban
• With 27% of the Population living in urban areas in
2008 up from 20%
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17. What are the Drivers of Urbanisation ?
There are multiple drivers, but primarily
• Cambodia’s Demographic Profile is the main one, with ~60%
of the population under 30 years of age (~29% under15 years
of age)
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Cambodia Overall 2008 & 2013 Cambodia Urban Cambodia Rural
Source (CIPS 2013)
18. Resulting in Rural to Urban Migration
• Increasing migration for
economic opportunities in
urban areas, particularly in the
15-30 years age group. Caused
by:
– Reducing agricultural
employment and earning
potential from agriculture,
• Partially through increasing
mechanisation.
• Limited land holding (avg. 1.6
hectares) by agricultural
dependent households
• Limited access to affordable
land in significant parts of the
country for expansion.
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19. The Present Situation
The Royal Government has designates 27 Municipalities
across the Country (since 2008)
– The Capital Phnom Penh with its 12 Khans/ Districts
– The 24 Provincial capitals
– 2 Border Municipalities
Cumulative these have 225 Communes/ Sangkats within
their boundaries.
There are a further 64 Communes that meet the official
urban criteria established by the Ministry of Planning
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21. Adjustments Due to Urban Reclassification
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The percentage of Urbanisation in terms of each provinces’ population. The 2011
Reclassification adjusted the percentage of each province. This raised the national
figure from 20% to 27% of the population living in an urban areas in 2008 which
has continued to increase.
22. • As can be seen of the 3.6
Million people identified
as living in Urban Areas in
2008 (RC2011),
42% (~1.5 Million) of these
were in the Capital
Phnom Penh.
39% (~1.4 Million) were in
the other 26 Municipalities
19% (0.7 Million) were in
the other urban
communes, the largest of
which had over 50,000
People
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23. The Projections of Urbanisation in
Cambodia
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One possible Long View, based on the United Nations standardised
Projection Approach. But is it right?
24. The Rapidly Changing Influence of
Urbanisation in Cambodia
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The following charts shows the influence of the reclassification of Urban Areas and the
increase pace of urbanisation in the country against the standardised model . This shows
that
• By 2020, a third of the country’s population will be living in an urban area and
• By 2050 over half of the population will be living in an urban area
25. Urban Areas as Growth Centres
(Urban Drivers 2)
• In 2011 the Cambodian Economic Census (CES)
identified 505,134 enterprises in Cambodia
• By 2014 for the Inter-censal Economic Survey reported
513,759 enterprises scatterd across the Country.
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26. Concentration of Businesses &(Non Agri)
Employment in Municipalities
• On closer inspect the following chart shows the
concentration of Provincial Economic Businesses and
their employment levels in terms of the overall
provincial levels
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27. Some of the Current Challenges
• Continued inconsistencies in the reported of figures for
Municipalities /cities and towns due to
– Under reporting of urban demographic /populations in key
population documents.
– Between the figures report due to
• The Commune Database (CDB) data and
• Periodic enumeration (Censuses and Inter-Censal Surveys).
– Levels of Service Provision
• Water Supply, Sanitation
– Land and Tenure Issues
• Tenure situation/land titling and land conflicts
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28. Factor in Under Reporting of Urban
Areas
• The use of obsolete urban datasets
– The recent Cambodian Inter-censal Population Survey (CIPS)
used the 2004 urban dataset, which only considered 169
Communes as urban
• Rather than the more recent 2011 RC which identified 289
communes as urban. Which led to a lower attribution of people
to urban areas resulting in only 21% of the population being
reported as living in urban areas rather than the more likely ~30%
• Under reporting of Urban populations particularly in Phnom Penh
due to disregarding the migrating population
– Local authorities usually report the population based on issued family
books and not the resident population.
• A Recent JICA review (Nishi 2013) found that the Sangkat figures
for Phnom Penh and the census data 2008 differed by ~19% which
indicates a significant under reporting of the urban population in
the capital at least.
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29. Conclusions
• Consideration of Urbanisation in Cambodia is currently lagging behind its
increasing important role(s) in the country, with the progressive
movement of the population to urban areas.
• Little or no clear policy and or strategies for effective consideration of the
influence and impacts of urbanisation are in place, which are critical.
– Though it is acknowledged that some activities on these are underway
• The Municipal land use plans etc.. being prepared but as yet
unapproved,
• The National Urban Development Strategy (NUDS) Framework
being prepared ,
• But continued delays could have detrimental impacts on short to medium
term development prospects, limit sustainable development options and
have adverse impacts on the urban population and the environment
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