DSD-INT 2014 - Delft-FEWS Users Meeting - Hydrological forecasting system in Australia, Simon Pierotti, Bureau of Meteorology

Hydrological Forecasting System in Australia
Simon Pierotti
HyFS

HyFS
1.
Introduction to HyFS
2.
End to End Forecasting / Operational best practice
3.
Manageable and Maintainable Configuration
4.
Future/Extensions
5.
Summary and Questions
Netherlands

HyFS Business Case
•
HyFS is national hydrological modelling and forecasting system for:

Flood Forecasting and Warning Services

New Short-Term Streamflow Forecasting Service

Efficient, robust and sustainable flood warning service

National System – service delivery from regional and national offices.

Meets operational best practice – high level of availability, ready for the next COI

Better use of weather forecasting guidance.

Support current forecasting techniques.

Realise benefits from investment in R&D - can evolve to utilise new advances and.

Supports collaboration - with forecasting agencies in Australia and Overseas.

HyFS Project Time Lines
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
T0
Requirements (2012)
Data System (HyDS) (2013/14)
Model Migration (2014)
Operationalise (2015)
Stage 6
Extension (2015/16)
Functional Modelling System (2013)

HyFS and Delft-FEWS
Partner Agencies
HyFS Web Reports
Training
Forecaster
STF Product Generator
Public Clients
HyFS
HyDS
WET
HyFI
Tide and Surge
NexGenFWS
NWP
Rain and River
Rainfields
Flow Forecasts
Warning Entry Tool
Flood Dashboard
Metadata
+ Archiving, Forecast Performance, Post Flood Analysis, and Model Calibration
Delft-FEWS components

Time StudioEnviromonData ProviderAutomatic Weather StationRemote ObserverNowCastACCESS C G & RGFE Forecast Rain PME/ECMWF/SDIOcean Surge Forecast (CAWCR) AIFS(Regional) HCS DecoderHydro Data DecoderHydro DBHyFS Data Management SystemFEWSManual Quality Control (MQC) Rainfields Data CollectorDerived Data Product GeneratorCMSS
HyDS "The right data at the right time at the right place"
•
New data sources (NWP, Radar Rainfall, Tidal Anomaly)
•
Finger-grained data (15 Min Rain Period data)
•
Highly available
•
Data and data systems need to provide value to the whole organisation
•
Existing regional systems are robust but are not easily extendable
•
Centralised data solution

Size of the National System
•
5000 Rain Gauges
•
3000 River Gauges
•
150 URBS models
•
50 SWIFT models
+ Peak Heights
+ Calibration Events
+ Historical Floods

HyFS Features
•
NWP Rainfall Forecasts
•
Radar Rainfields
•
Rainfall Forecast Comparisons
•
Real-Time IFD
•
Peak Heights

HyFS and Delft-FEWS
Partner Agencies
HyFS Web Reports
Training
Forecaster
STF Product
Generator
Public Clients
HyFS
HyDS
WET
HyFI
Tide and Surge
NexGenFWS
NWP
Rain and River
Rainfields
Flow Forecasts
Warning Entry Tool
Flood Dashboard
Metadata
+ Archiving, Forecast Performance, Post Flood Analysis, and Model Calibration

Flood Warnings
•
Forecasts and Warnings are developed based on:
o
Modelling
o
peak heights
o
historical floods
o
discussions with external agencies
•
Text based Warning on the public web

WET - Warning Entry Tool
New tool to:
•
Identify explicit spatial areas
•
Produce standard formats
•
Encode numerical forecasts for verification and training
Integration with HyFS
•
Official issued warning available to the forecaster

Operational Best Practice
Meet Statutory Requirements:
•
Simulations
•
Forecaster Notes
•
Run info etc. Post Flood Activities:
•
Forecasting performance
•
Check and recalibrate models
•
Automated report generation
•
Reports saved on the archive Training:
•
Water Coach Scenarios Flood Operations:
•
Access to archived reports from the OC
•
Historical events
ARCHIVE

Post Flood Activities
Forecast Performance Reports:
•
Asses the performance of the final forecasts from WET
•
Asses performance of model simulations
Calibration Reports:
•
Calibrate and verification

Training - Water Coach
•
Part of end user training
•
Script based events and learning
•
Used for consolidation of learning/self-assessment
•
Navigating the HyFS System
•
Situational Awareness/Rainfall Grids
•
Forecasting with URBS

•
Permissions in configuration
•
Change and release management procedures
•
Version Control
•
National system with multiple regional forecasting centres
•
7 Regional Offices
•
1 Configuration
•
How to migrate and maintain?

Permissions
•
Make use of permission groups in FEWS to filter
•
Hide certain areas of the system

Making the configuration maintainable
•
Templates
•
Organised into regions
•
Metadata in csv and shp
•
Plan to integrate with a metadata management system (HyFI).
Station Metadata

Change Management
•
Provide a structured way of managing and controlling the manner in which changes are initiated, assessed, planned, scheduled and implemented in the HyFS systems.
Version Control

Version Control
•
Decentralised version control
•
Each migration team has their own branch
•
Merged into the master for each release package
•
No Manual Merging (most of the time)
•
More time for testing, less time for merging

Migration Progress
•
Would we be this far along without change management and version control?!
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Western Australia
South Australia
New South Wales
Tasmania
Queensland
Victoria
Northern Territory
Overall
URBS Models Migrated

Future
•
Operational support arrangements
•
Transition to Operation
•
Training
•
Hydrological Flood Intelligence System (HyFI)
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 5
Requirements (2012)
Functional Modelling System (2013)
Data System (HyDS) (2013/14)
Model Migration (2014)
Operationalise (2015)
Stage 6
Extension (2015/16)
T0

FEWS Community Australia
•
FEWS user days in 2014 was a major success
•
40+ people at user days
•
FEWS user days 2015 scehdueled

Summary
•
Implementation of a single National Forecasting System is not without its challenges.
•
A national system will provide the Bureau with system that can be efficiently and effectively maintained.
•
It enables the Bureau to implement a system with robustness and disaster recovery expected of emergency management organisations.
•
Makes it easier to introduce improvements in the future and ensure that the Bureau's forecasting systems and methods continue to meet industry and world best practice.
•
The FEWS community will enable the Bureau share forecasting approaches and techniques with its partners in Australia and Internationally.

Acknowledgements
Agathe Boronkay, Sunil Bhatt, Chris Leahy, Simon Pierotti, Karen Hudson, Andrew Preece, Andy Barnes, David Enever, Prasantha Hapuarachchi, Ashleigh Hackles, Phil Douglas, Wei Wang, Shangyou Zhang, Chandra Waniganayaka, Jeff Perkins, Rob Thompson, Phil Nguyen, Brett Anderson, Shirrah Comeadow, Soori Sooriyakumaran, Paul Birch, Sue Oats, Phil Ng, Santosh Kumar, Jo Pitt, Dasarath Jayasuriya, Marc van Dijk, Alex Minette, Peter Grijsbers, Ono, Chris Brunner, Andy Taylor, Ivo Miltenburg, Rick Meng, Anitha Puliyilote, Jaap Schellekens, Simone de Kleermaeker, Arther van Rooij, Onno van den Akker, David Kent, Carlos Velasco, Sourabh Gupta, and more …

DSD-INT 2014 - Delft-FEWS Users Meeting - Hydrological forecasting system in Australia, Simon Pierotti, Bureau of Meteorology

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DSD-INT 2014 - Delft-FEWS Users Meeting - Hydrological forecasting system in Australia, Simon Pierotti, Bureau of Meteorology