Presentation by Kees Nederhoff (Deltares) at the Data Science Symposium 2018, during Delft Software Days - Edition 2018. Thursday 15 November 2018, Delft.
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DSD-INT 2018 Improvement of hazard and damage estimations from tropical cyclones using satellite data - Nederhoff
1. Improvement of hazard and damage
estimations from tropical cyclones
using satellite data
Team involved: Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van
Ormondt & Deepak Vatvani
15 November 2018
3. 1. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most
destructive natural hazards worldwide
15 November 2018
• Direct costs (economic) & social cost (lose of life)
7. 2. With a big effect on hazard computation
15 November 2018
8. 2. TC size is not normally distributed!
15 November 2018
9. 2. TC size can be described with lognormal
15 November 2018
10. Side note: what is lognormal?
• A lognormal (log-normal or Galton) distribution is a probability
distribution with a normally distributed logarithm.
• Skewed distributions with all-positive values often fit this type of
distribution.
15 November 2018
15. 3. Why is a good estimate of wind needed?
15 November 2018
Holland: calibrated with found relations Holland: uncalibrated
• Maximum computed SWAN wave height during Hurricane Ike
• Uncalibrated wind model results in overestimation!
longitude [∘] longitude [∘]
latitude[∘]
18. 4. Next step: including rainfall
15 November 2018
• Rainfall Harvey: >100 cm in 4 days
• Yearly rainfall in Netherlands: 90 cm
19. 4. Conclusions
1. Tropical cyclones (TCs) are among the most destructive natural
hazards worldwide due to wind damage and flooding
2. TC size is stochastic and can be described with a lognormal
distribution while varying the coefficients with wind speed and
latitude
3. Parametric wind models like Holland can be used to simulate TCs
wind and pressure fields. When using the realistic estimates for
TC size.
4. Flooding impacts due to TCs is not just due to storm surge.
Rainfall is also of importance (e.g. Harvey)! next step
Work submitted to Monthly Weather Review. ‘Estimates of tropical cyclone geometry
parameters based on best track data’.
15 November 2018
20. Improvement of hazard and damage
estimations from tropical cyclones
using satellite data
Team involved: Kees Nederhoff, Alessio Giardino, Maarten van
Ormondt & Deepak Vatvani
15 November 2018