%+27788225528 love spells in Atlanta Psychic Readings, Attraction spells,Brin...
DSD-INT 2019 Dutch experience with sea level rise - Jeuken
1. D a t a S c i e n c e S y m p o s i u m 2 0 1 9
Dutch experience with sea level rise
Ad Jeuken
2. Historic pathway in the Netherlands
DataScienceSymposium2019
2
After
1000
After
1550
1916-
1932
1953 -
1998
800 ad Delta
Program
Culverts
Drainage
ditches
Dikes and
polders
1916 flood
Zuiderzee works
2nd Delta
Committee
Dwelling mounds Polders and land
reclamation
1953 North Sea Flood
1st Delta Committee
Delta Works
`Anticipate with
adaptive planning
3. Salt water intrusion
Nieuwe Maas
Hollandsche IJssel
Lek
Waal
Bergsche Maas
Oude Maas
Noord
Spui
Dordtsche Kil
Haringvliet
Hollandsch Diep
Nieuwe Waterweg
Salt water coming in
DataScienceSymposium2019
3
4. Delta program for long term strategic decisions
• Participative programs in 6 regions and nation wide
• Central coordination but also regional decision making
• National delta decisions framing further regional decision
• Flood safety and protection standards
• Fresh water supply
• Spatial (urban) adaptation
• Coherence in analytical approaches
• Common scenarios
• National models
• Knowledge platforms
• Adaptive delta management
• Signal group (monitoring)
• Now in implementation phase but also re-evaluating (SLR)
DataScienceSymposium2019
4
5. DataScienceSymposium2019
Adaptation Pathways approach: explore alternative sequences of decisions to achieve
objectives. A scorecard helps to evaluate the pathways and decisions. Monitoring helps
to get adaptation signals.
Current
situation
Action A
Action B
Action C
Action D
Transfer station to new policy action
Adaptation Tipping Point of a policy action (Terminal )
Policy action effective
Changing conditions
Time high-end scenario
Time low-end scenario
0
0 10 70 80 90 100
Years
10 70 80 90 100
Signal
Decision node
Haasnoot et al. (2013) Glob. Env. Change. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
5
6. DataScienceSymposium2019
6
Urban open coast
sea-level
rise
no low medium high
Current
situation
No-build zones Planned realignment and relocation
Nourishment
Floodgate
Wave dissipation structure
Floodproofing infrastructure
Dikes and Seawalls
AccommodateRetreat
Land raising
Protect
Urban delta
sea-level
rise
no low medium high
Current
situation
No-build zones Planned realignment and relocation
Floodgate
Wave dissipation structure
Floodproofing infrastructure
Dikes and Seawalls
Land raising
sea-level
rise
no low medium high
Current
situation
No-build zones Planned realignment and relocation
Storm surge or tidal barrier
Floodgate
Retention area
Floodproofing infrastructure
Dikes and Seawalls
Urban estuary
Rural open coast, delta, estuary
sea-level
rise
no low medium high
Current
situation
No-build zones Planned realignment and relocation
Wave dissipation
structure
Salt/flood tolerant food production
Dikes and Seawalls
Land raising
Haasnoot, Brown et al 2019 ERC
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871
7. Delta Programme, The Netherlands
Prepare for uncertain climate change
DataScienceSymposium2019
7
“Adaptation pathways offer a strong approach to show which options
are needed and when they should be implemented and how long-term
objectives influence short-term decisions.” (Delta Programme 2015)
• Iterative participatory process
• Opens decision space
• Reduced number of pathways in the final
plan
• Pathways based on short, medium, long
term actions
• Continuous monitoring
8. Delta Programme, The Netherlands
Prepare for uncertain climate change
DataScienceSymposium2019
8
9. Accelerated sea level rise is asking for a reassessment of decisions
DataScienceSymposium2019
9
More uncertain
Higher
Earlier
Haasnoot et al. 2018 https://bit.ly/2OArzxX - Source SLR data: Le Bars et al 2017 ERL
10. What if we continue the ‘protect’ pathway(s)?
What are thresholds for adaptation to sea-level rise?
DataScienceSymposium2019
10
12. Limits to protect: pump capacity?
• Technical, energy and space: no limit
• Risk of failure: storage needed to buy time
DataScienceSymposium2019
12
• 0.65 m
• 1.75 m
Haasnoot et al. 2018 https://bit.ly/2OArzxX
,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
30,00
0 5000 10000 15000 20000
#days
QIJssel
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Time available to fix pumps
depending on SLR and Q
13. Fresh water supply: reduced availability and increased demand
• 1 m: permanent alternative for emergency
supply route for Gouda
DataScienceSymposium2019
13
• >1 m: increase demand IJsselmeer
• 3 m: double amount of storage
Haasnoot et al. 2018 https://bit.ly/2OArzxX
14. Limits in time?
• Functional life time of investments
decreases:
adapt faster or larger
DataScienceSymposium2019
14
~ 65 years
~ 20 years
~10 years
Haasnoot et al. 2018 https://bit.ly/2OArzxX - Source SLR data: Le Bars et al 2017 ERL
15. Potential policy consequences
• Rapid increase of adaptation costs over time may
exceed accepted budget spending
• Skip planned measure, need for longer term
options
• Extra pressure in case of negative Economic
Development
DataScienceSymposium2019
15
16. What choices can we make to adapt to sea level rise?
DataScienceSymposium2019
16