Slides used by David Wood, Chair of London Futurists and co-founder of Transhumanist UK, at the VSIM 2020 conference on 29th July. See http://vsim-conf.info/

1. David Wood
London Futurists
How transhumanism can
in the next five years
@dw2
XIII International & Interdisciplinary Scientific Conference
VANGUARD SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS IN MANAGEMENT 2020
achieve (much) greater impact

2. https://transhumanist.uk/

3. How society might respond
to a growing anticipation of
healthy superlongevity
David Wood
London Futurists
@dw2
Scenarios
for
2020-2025
XIII International & Interdisciplinary Scientific Conference
VANGUARD SCIENTIFIC INSTRUMENTS IN MANAGEMENT 2020

4. How society might respond
to a growing anticipation of
healthy superlongevity
David Wood
London Futurists
@dw2
Scenarios
for
2020-2025
1. What does the public presently think about potential healthy superlongevity?
2. Does it matter what the public thinks about potential healthy superlongevity?
3. How might that public view change in the years ahead?
4. What could influence how the public view will change in the years ahead?
Four scenarios

5. A. Helping people to “age in place” better
• Despite aging, people can have fuller lives
• This is the focus of most “healthy aging” initiatives
B. Tech enabling more people to be “superagers”
• Superagers age more slowly: fewer chronic diseases
• They can live like they’re 75, despite being 95+
C. Tech enabling people to be “forever young”
• They can live like they’re 35, despite being 125+
• The abolition of aging / Undoing aging
Three waves of healthy longevity

6. A. Helping people to “age in place” better
• Despite aging, people can have fuller lives
• This is the focus of most “healthy aging” initiatives
B. Tech enabling more people to be “superagers”
• Superagers age more slowly
• They can live like they’re 75, despite being 95+
C. Tech enabling people to be “forever young”
• They can live like they’re 35, despite being 125+
• The abolition of aging / Undoing aging
What does the public presently think
about potential healthy superlongevity?
It would be nice
to live longer
Healthier people
will be better
for the economy
It’s an unrealistic
fantasy
It would be bad
for the planet
and for society

7. Does it matter what the public thinks
about potential healthy superlongevity?
It would be nice
to live longer
Healthier people
will be better
for the economy
It’s an unrealistic
fantasy
It would be bad
for the planet
and for society
What people choose to study, and what careers to take
Whether people become citizen scientists supporting the field
The projects in which individuals and trusts choose to invest
Actions by politicians: public funding, updating regulations…

8. How might the public view change
in the years ahead (2020-2025)?
Tipping point?
External shock?

9. Geoffrey Moore: How innovation spreads
Laggards,
sceptics
Customers want
technology and features
Customers want
complete solutions, reliability, and convenience
Early
adopters,
visionariesInnovators,
technology
enthusiasts
THECHASM
Early
majority
Late
majority
Can accept poor
usability
Won’t accept poor
usability
Ready to walk a
solitary path
Requires social
validation
“Crossing the Chasm” (1991)
(people who are like me)

10. How might the public view change
in the years ahead (2020-2025)?
Inertia prevails Hearts harden Interest surges Conflict grows
Little change in
attitude
Growing disbelief
and opposition
Understanding
and enthusiasm
Bitter rivalries
dominate

11. What might cause growing disbelief and
opposition?
Hearts harden
Growing disbelief
and opposition
Trials are perceived to have failed
Claims are assessed as over-hyped
Community experiences schisms
Prominent backers reverse position
“Natural” ideologies more popular
Anti-elitist sentiment grows

12. Countering growing disbelief and
opposition
Trials are perceived to have failed
Claims are assessed as over-hyped
Community experiences schisms
Prominent backers reverse position
“Natural” ideologies more popular
Anti-elitist sentiment grows
Highlight successful trials
Beware over-promising
Embrace diversity within limits
Highlight new prominent backers
Fight and win the battle of ideas
Clarify the benefits to everyone

13. What might cause growing interest and
enthusiasm
Highlight successful trials
Beware over-promising
Embrace diversity within limits
Highlight new prominent backers
Fight and win the battle of ideas
Clarify the benefits to everyone
Interest surges
Understanding
and enthusiasm

14. Highlight successful trials
• Methuselah Mouse prize
‒ Rejuvenating middle-aged mice
• Rejuvenating middle-aged dogs
• Forever Healthy “Rejuvenation Now” reports
• Lifespan.io “Rejuvenation Roadmap”
• Reports in Nature
‒ 5th Sept 2019
‒ “First hint that body’s biological age can be reversed”
05 SEPTEMBER 2019

15. Beware over-promising
• Avoid examples which will fall apart under scrutiny
‒ Apply “red teaming” adversarial checking
• Ensure the best examples are well known
• Emphasise that predictions involve probabilities
‒ Explain factors which can influence outcomes
• Enable portfolio investing
‒ As in Juvenescence fund
Message management is important!

16. Framework to embrace diversity within limits
• Anticipate issues in managing the wider community
‒ Obtain “1 + 1 = 3” rather than “too many cooks”
‒ Avoid deterring potential important allies
• Accept that different
contributors want to
operate at several
different ambition levels
Community management is important!
A. Age in place better
B. Superagers
C. Forever Young
D. Transhumanism
E. Immortality(?)

17. Humanism: Respect human wellbeing
The ultimate guide is human feeling/intuition
Honed by experience, reflection, community…
Don’t place undue faith in any one authority
Don’t place nature on a pedestal either
Transhumanism: Humanism+
The human species in its current form
does not represent the end of our development
but rather a comparatively early phase
Don’t put undue priority on protecting all aspects
of today’s human nature
We can do a lot better – with wisdom and care

18. What is human nature?
Precious?!
Divinely created?!
Uniquely evolved?!
Not to be
tampered with?!
A mix of features!
Some should
be preserved!
Some should
be enhanced!
Some should be
transcended!

19. Transcending human physical tendencies towards decay and decrepitude
1. Super longevity: Significantly improved physical health,
including much longer lifespans
Transcending human irrational tendencies towards
mental blind spots and collective stupidity (cognitive biases)
2. Super intelligence: Significantly improved thinking capability
Transcending human emotionally self-defeating tendencies towards
depression, alienation, vicious emotions, & needless suffering
3. Super wellbeing: Significantly improved states of consciousness
Transcending human anti-social tendencies towards
xenophobia, divisiveness, deception, and the abuse of power
4. Super democracy: significantly improved social inclusion & resilience,
whilst upholding liberty & diversity
The four ‘supers’ of technoprogressive transhumanism

20. How to decide?
A mix of features!
Some should
be preserved!
Some should
be enhanced!
Some should be
transcended!
The best of
Humanity 1.0
• Scientific understanding
• Cultural appreciation
• Integrated diversity
• Creative imagination
• Critically evaluated
• Collective wisdom
• Approached step-by-step

21. What might cause growing interest and
enthusiasm
Highlight successful trials
Beware over-promising
Embrace diversity within limits
Highlight new prominent backers
Win the battle of ideas
Clarify the benefits to everyone
The
Longevity
Dividend
S. Jay
Olshansky,
George M.
Martin,
James L.
Kirkland

22. Adverse social security impact?
1. How can pensions be paid, for long-lived people?
• Trying to increase pension age is political dynamite!
• But superagers will need use less healthcare costs
• And automation can reduce other costs
‒ Education, housing, nutritious food, materials…
2. Envision a “basic pension for all” (ALL ages)
• Usually known as “universal basic income” (UBI)
• Paid for by redistributing society’s abundance
Leaving plenty for everyone!
Less
money
needed!

23. Adverse environmental impact?
Environmental impact =
Population
size
x Average
energy usage
x Carbon
intensity
Recycling
effectiveness
Technology increases Technology decreases
Technology increases
Synthetic biology
(clean meat) (lab-grown meat)
Green energy (solar/wind…)
Negative emissions technologies
Nanotech (repair & recycling)
Spacetech (eventually)

24. Adverse social impact?
1. No scope for promotion if our elders don’t retire?
• But some circulation can be enforced
• (like the term limits on US President)
2. Risk of dictators remaining in power forever?
• But we need better politics in any case
3. Risk of division: “almost gods” vs. “mainly useless”?
• Stronger democratic oversight needed of economy
• Ensure fruits of abundance are shared widely
With no one left behind

25. Adverse philosophical impact?
1. Loss of purpose, if life is potentially endless?
• Compare: loss of purpose, if there is no God?
• But we humans can make our own purpose!
• Young children show us how, with their zest for life
2. Purpose, in a world of tech-enabled abundance?
• The same tech revolution that gives us “forever
young” can also give us wise overseeing AI robots
• Huge scope for human creativity and exploration
• Arts, sports, literature, outer space and inner worlds

26. How might the public view change
in the years ahead (2020-2025)?
Inertia prevails Hearts harden Interest surges Conflict grows
Little change in
attitude
Growing disbelief
and opposition
Understanding
and enthusiasm
Bitter rivalries
dominate