Technology and inequality

Technology and inequality
Technology and inequality Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com Recent history & future scenarios Radical opportunity & radical risk David Wood @dw2
@dw2 Page 2 Accelerating technology Enhancing humans Extra intelligence Extra health Extra longevity Extra experience Disturbing humanity Worse terrorism Worse surveillance Worse climate Robot employment Extra opportunities Existential risks Benefits individuals Threatens society Positive feedback
@dw2 Page 3 Enhancing humans Extra intelligence Extra health Extra longevity Extra experience Disturbing humanity Worse terrorism Worse surveillance Worse climate Robot employment Extra opportunities Existential risks Benefits individuals Threatens society If we allow individuals to enhance themselves through smart R&D and free enterprise – without government interference – the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product Alongside smart R&D and the power of free enterprise, we also need wise regulation and smart governance 1 2 And perhaps new social systems Governments needn’t be corrupt
@dw2 Page 4 http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/360347 The most important problem we are facing now, today… is Robert Shiller, Nobel prize winner for Economics, 14 October 2013 rising inequality
@dw2 Page 5 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/theres-been-class-warfare-for- the-last-20-years-and-my-class-has-won/2011/03/03/gIQApaFbAL_blog.html There’s been class warfare going on for the last 20 years, and my class has won. We’re the ones that have gotten our tax rates reduced dramatically Warren Buffett, Investor, “Sage of Omaha”, 2011 Top 400 taxpayers Average income Tax rate 1992 $40M 29% 2010 $227M 21%
@dw2 Page 6 http://www.theprogressivesinfluence.com/2014/02/the-nations-uber-wealthy-are- revolting.html
@dw2 Page 7 http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/pdf/F0.I.1.pdf http://eml.berkeley. edu/~saez/saez- UStopincomes- 2012.pdf Thomas Piketty
@dw2 Page 8 http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21631129-it-001-who-are- really-getting-ahead-america-forget-1 “The really, really rich get much, much richer” “The 16,000 families making up the richest 0.01%, with an average net worth of $371M, now control 11.2% of total wealth—back to the 1916 share, which is the highest on record”
@dw2 Page 9 http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts
@dw2 Page 10 http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/pikettys-inequality-story-in-six-charts
@dw2 Page 11 Positive feedback cycle The three inequality questions 1.Is inequality really a problem? –Or is it just a perceived problem? 2.Is powerful new technology likely to make the problem worse? –For example, via adverse positive feedback cycles? –What kind of scenarios are credible for the future? 3.What can be done to avoid escalating inequality? –Roles of politics, philosophy, and (yes) technology?
@dw2 Page 12 The problems with inequality 1.Is inequality really a problem? –Or is it just a perceived problem? A.A more unequal society is worse for everyone B.Equality of opportunity is declining too –“The disappearing middle class” C.A more unequal society is more explosive –And technology risks making it even more explosive Positive feedback cycle
@dw2 Page 13 http://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/resources/our-publications/spirit-level-slides http://www.theguardian.com/books/2010/aug/14/the-spirit-level-equality-thinktanks
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@dw2 Page 21 http://www.thersa.org/events/video/archive/rsa-debates-the-spirit-level “Kate Pickett, Richard Wilkinson, Peter Saunders, and Chrisopher Snowdon debate the influential book The Spirit Level and ask whether the benefits of egalitarianism can be statistically proven”
@dw2 Page 22 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/04/the-best-speech- obama-has-given-on-the-economy/ …I believe this is the defining challenge of our time 4 December 2013 A dangerous and growing inequality… has jeopardized middle-class America’s basic bargain: – that if you work hard, you have a chance to get ahead While we don’t promise equal outcomes, we have strived to deliver equal opportunity – the idea that success doesn’t depend on being born into wealth or privilege, it depends on effort and merit.
@dw2 Page 23 http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/
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@dw2 Page 25 http://owsposters.tumblr.com/post/11688983653/middle-class-family-an-endangered-species
@dw2 Page 26 http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/
@dw2 Page 27 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/04/the-best-speech- obama-has-given-on-the-economy/ 4 December 2013 The problem is that alongside increased inequality, we’ve seen diminished levels of upward mobility in recent years. A child born in the top 20% has about a 2-in-3 chance of staying at or near the top. A child born into the bottom 20% has a less than 1-in- 20 shot at making it to the top. He’s 10 times likelier to stay where he is.
@dw2 Page 28 The problem isn’t that we have inequality. Some inequality is intrinsic to any high-functioning capitalist economy. The problem is that inequality is at historically high levels and getting worse every day… Unless our policies change dramatically, the middle class will disappear, and we will be back to late 18th-century France. Before the revolution. And so I have a message for my fellow filthy rich, for all of us who live in our gated bubble worlds: Wake up, people. It won’t last. If we don’t do something to fix the glaring inequities in this economy, the pitchforks are going to come for us. No society can sustain this kind of rising inequality. In fact, there is no example in human history where wealth accumulated like this and the pitchforks didn’t eventually come out. You show me a highly unequal society, and I will show you a police state. Or an uprising. http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/06/the-pitchforks-are-coming-for-us-plutocrats-108014.html Nick Hanauer
@dw2 Page 29 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2541541/Google-hiring-security-guards-protect-work-buses-San- Francisco-following-protests-tech-workers-driving-city-rents.html
@dw2 Page 30 Locking in advantage: 5 factors 1.Capital growth exceeds economic growth (r > g: Piketty) –More money -> investment -> even more money 2.Education –More money -> better education -> better career -> more money 3.“Winner takes all” –Better skills -> disproportionately higher reward
@dw2 Page 31 Purchased by Facebook in April 2012 With 13 employees And 100 million registered users For approx $1 billion in cash and stock Launched in October 2010 Sociable Usable Winner takes a larger reward Compare Kodak 1997 valuation $30B 86,000 employees 2,000x productivity?!
@dw2 Page 32 Purchased by Facebook in April 2012 With 13 employees And 100 million registered users For approx $1 billion in cash and stock Launched in October 2010 Winner takes a larger reward Compare Kodak 1997 valuation $30B 86,000 employees 2,000x productivity?! Created seven billionaires! Each with a net worth ten times greater than George Eastman!
@dw2 Page 33 Purchased by Facebook in Feb 2014 With 55 employees And 420 million active users For approx $19 billion in cash & stock Launched in March 2009 Sociable Usable Winner takes a larger reward
@dw2 Page 34 “Winner takes all”: The Second Machine Age Gold medal >> Silver medal 1.The digitization of more and more information, goods, and services 2.The vast improvements in telecommunications and transport –The best products can be used in every market 3.The increased importance of networks and standards –New capabilities and new ideas can be combined and recombined more quickly http://www.secondmachineage.com/ Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee, MIT
@dw2 Page 35 http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/ Steve Jurvetson Managing Director, Draper Fisher Jurvetson Venture Capitalist investor in Hotmail “It just seems so obvious to me [that] technology is accelerating the rich-poor gap…” “The elephant in the room, stomping around, banging off the walls”
@dw2 Page 36 Locking in advantage: 5 factors 1.Capital growth exceeds economic growth (r > g: Piketty) –More money -> investment -> even more money 2.Education –More money -> better education -> better career -> more money 3.“Winner takes all” –Better skills -> disproportionately higher reward 4.Technology to enhance your health (body power) –Fitter -> work more effectively -> better rewards 5.Technology to enhance your intelligence (brain power) –Smarter -> work more effectively -> better rewards
@dw2 Page 37 Accelerating technology Reduces prices Increases inequality Positive feedback Creates practical abundance
@dw2 Page 38 http://www.businessinsider.com.au/mary-meekers-2014-internet-presentation-2014-5
@dw2 Page 40 http://www.computerworld.com/slideshow/detail/143723#slide2 128MB 128GB
@dw2 Page 44 Source: “Exponential Organizations” exponentialorgs.com http://www.slideshare.net/ vangeest/exponential- organizations-h
@dw2 Page 47 Examples of rate of change Source: “Exponential Organizations” Technology Average cost for equivalent functionality Scale 3D printing $40,000 (2007) to $100 (2014) 400x in 7 years Industrial robots $500,000 (2008) to $22,000 (2013) 23x in 5 years Drones $100,000 (2007) to $700 (2013) 142x in 6 years Solar energy $30 per kWh (1984) to $0.16 per kWh (2014) 200x in 20 years 3D LIDAR Sensors $20,000 (2009) to $79 (2014) 250x in 5 years DNA genome seq $10,000,000 (2007) to $1,000 (2014) 10,000x in 7 years BCI neuro devices $4,000 (2006) to $90 (2011) 44x in 5 years Full body med scan $10,000 (2000) to $500 (2014) 20x in 14 years http://www.slideshare.net/vangeest/exponential-organizations-h
@dw2 Page 48 Accelerating technology Reduces prices Increases inequality Positive feedback Creates practical abundance
@dw2 Page 49 Four future scenarios 1.Inequality accepted – through “practical abundance” despite inequality –Majority of people will become comparatively poorer, but goods will reduce in expense –People remain relatively happy and acquiescent –Even though the 1% have more abundance than everyone else –People may spend lots of time in virtual worlds and soap operas 2.Inequality exploded: Pitchforks, revolution, and worse –Some important goods will only be affordable by the super-rich –Specialised healthcare? Rejuvenation technology? –“Practical abundance” is not enough –Growing societal tensions -> risk of explosions, pitchforks, horrific terrorism, WMD 3.Inequality controlled: Transhumanism for the 1% –New tech will make some humans super-intelligent (brain-enhanced) & super-powerful –Much bigger & faster differentiation than existing educational benefits –That new ruling class will be able to suppress all dissent: super-effective police state 4.Inequality vanquished: Transhumanism for all –Determined social pressure to ensure access to new technologies by everyone –Don’t leave social evolution up to the forces of “free market liberalism” –Improve on social organisation, just like we believe we can improve on bio-evolution
@dw2 Page 50 Enhancing humans Extra intelligence Extra health Extra longevity Extra experience Disturbing humanity Worse terrorism Worse surveillance Worse climate Robot employment Extra opportunities Existential risks Benefits individuals Threatens society If we allow individuals to enhance themselves through smart R&D and free enterprise – without government interference – the world’s social problems will be solved as a by-product Alongside smart R&D and the power of free enterprise, we also need wise regulation and smart governance 1 2 And perhaps new social systems Governments needn’t be corrupt
@dw2 Page 51 Appendix: What can be done to avoid escalating inequality? •Deepen our awareness of impacts of social factors on alienation and initiative –Sharpen our understanding of which kinds of inequality matter the most (and most need fixing) –Local experimentation (at city, region, or country levels) will make us collectively wiser –Expect a big role for a Basic Income Guarantee, especially as Technological Unemployment grows •Encourage growth, where appropriate, of “collaborative commons” voluntary sector •Elevate the power of “conscious capitalism” over “crony capitalism” & “vested interests” –Encourage visions other than just pursuit of greater profit (“man cannot live by bread alone”) –Enable societies to adopt “massive transformational purpose” (MTP – term used by Singularity Univ) –A good MTP could be something like “transhumanism for all” •Re-invigorate democratic systems – Democracy 2.0 – building on success of e.g. MOOCs –Better use of technology to involve more people at right times in relevant decision-making processes –The blockchain tech (which underlies Bitcoin) can enable DAOs (Distributed Autonomous Orgs) •Develop smart drugs and other systems that make us all (with our permission) not just smarter and stronger but also kinder and more empathetic –With that new spirit, more people in the “1%” will be moved to champion inclusivity –This is “inner transhumanism” as opposed to just “outer transhumanism” http://dw2blog.com/2011/04/17/towards-inner-humanity/
Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists David Wood @dw2 londonfuturists.com deltawisdom.com Technology and inequality Recent history & future scenarios Radical opportunity & radical risk

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