market at september 2016
Study background
•
Objectives
•
Available results
2.
FTTH/B in Latin America
•
Overview
•
Overall figures
3.
LATAM FTTH/B main trends
•
FTTH/B subscribers
•
FTTH/B Homes Passed distribution
•
FTTH/B Homes Passed in total HH
•
Top 10 countries in terms of % of FTTH/B Homes Passed in total Households
4.
Challenges / drivers for FTTH/B in LATAM
5.
Forecasts up to 2021
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2017 FTTH Panorama LATAM - Roland Montagne - IDATE DigiWorld
1. FTTH Panorama LATAM
Market at September 2016
Roland MONTAGNE - Director, Principal Analyst - IDATE
+33 680 850 480 - r.montagne@idate.org
2. FTTH Panorama LATAM - Agenda
1. Study background
• Objectives
• Available results
2. FTTH/B in Latin America
• Overview
• Overall figures
3. LATAM FTTH/B main trends
• FTTH/B subscribers
• FTTH/B Homes Passed distribution
• FTTH/B Homes Passed in total HH
• Top 10 countries in terms of % of FTTH/B Homes Passed in total Households
4. Challenges / drivers for FTTH/B in LATAM
5. Forecasts up to 2021
4. Study Background
• Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council, LATAM
• Objective: to provide a complete summary of the status of FTTH/B in LATAM
- 17 countries analyzed (1)
- Distinction between architecture: FTTH/B vs FTTN (FTTN/C+VDSL, FTTLA, FTTx+LAN)
- FTTH/B Definition by FTTH Councils Worldwide (2)
• Characterization of each project includes:
- Organization initiating the project
- Key parameters & Figures
- Technical & Architecture parameters
- Financing & Business model
• Methodology use
- Desk research
- Direct contacts with FTTH players (questionnaires, phone interviews) & IDATE’s partners in LATAM
- Information exchange with FTTH Council, LATAM chapter members
(1) Argentina, Bahamas, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Guatemala, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay
(2) FTTH/B definition available here
6. A year where alternative ISP and Municipalities are
leading the FTTH/B evolution
• A positive evolution: 82 FTTx projects in the region
• Players different from incumbents have deployed fibre in a dynamic
way from 2015 to September 2016 covering with fibre more homes:
• Municipalities / Power Utilities have grown 33%
• Alternative operators growth: 19%
• Incumbents: Growth rate about 5%
Incumbents:
4 161 000
FTTH/B
Homes Passed
Municipalities
/ Utilities:
190 800
FTTH/B
Homes Passed
Alternative
Operators:
18 987 187
FTTH/B
Homes Passed
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
7. FTTH/B is taking a bigger place in the LATAM Market
due to a positive evolution in the deployment and
user’s adoption…
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
4 552 698
FTTH/B
subscribers
by Sept. 2016
in LATAM
23 352 987
FTTH/B
Homes
Passed by
Sept. 2016 in
LATAM
25% growth
from 2015
18% growth
from 2015
19.5%
FTTH/B Take
up rate by
Sept. 2016 in
LATAM
+1.4 points from
December 2015
Take up rate = FTTH-B subs / Total FTTH-B Homes Passed
9. It has been a period with Mexico and Brazil as the
leading countries but also there has been an
interesting evolution in the Caribbean region….
• Mexico is still leading the LATAM FTTH/B market with 1.585 million subscribers
- +23% of subscribers Dec-15 to Sep-16
- Telmex is leading the retail market
- However, TotalPlay has entered to the big race increasing the FTTH/B homes passed by 35% in Sep 2016 and the FTTH/B subs in Sept 2016 by 64% from Dec 2015
• Brazil is reaching Mexico in the LATAM FTTH/B market with 1.572 million subscribers
- +26% of subscribers Dec-15 to Sep-16
- Telefónica continues its development plan investing in fibre deployment between 2015 and 2017 and extending agreement with the regulator in order to provide FTTH services in new cities.
- Hundreds of local ISPs involved, but in limited geographical rollouts
• Antel in Uruguay is one of the two most involved incumbents in the region (570,000 FTTH/B subs)
- Even if the trend of FTTH/B subscribers growth is decreasing at + 4% Dec-15 to Sep-16, 48% of FTTH/B HP have opted for a service based on FTTH connection
- National coverage: the coverage is considered as exhaustive in Uruguay
- Among the leading countries in the global ranking with a penetration rate (1) over 60% by September 2016
• Strong growth rates in smaller markets, confirming a general trend towards FTTH/B in the region, specially in the Caribbean
- Barbados +322%, Jamaica +1000%, Trinidad y Tobago 463%! And Peru : 262%
- Colombia +41%, Bolivia +40%
(1) Penetration rate = number of FTTH/B subscribers over total number of Households
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
10. 0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
1400%
1600%
1800%
2000%
… it can be also appreciated a good evolution in lower
scale markets such as Jamaica, Trinidad, Barbados
and Peru…
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
Total FTTH/B Subscribers by country
% variation from Dec-2015 to Sept-16 in the number
of FTTH/B Subscribers by country
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
K(Thousands)
11. While Mexico and Brazil are the leaders in homes
passed, significant deployment are also performed in
other smaller LATAM Markets…
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Millions
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
1400%
1600%
1800%
Trinidad: Flow, Digicel & Massy deployments
Peru: Player « Voy » has reached more homes during the period
Jamaica: Flow & Digicel deployments
Total FTTH/B Homes Passed by country
% variation from Dec-2015 to Sept-16 in the number
of FTTH/B Homes Passed by country
12. Top 10 countries in terms of % of FTTH/B Homes
Passed in total Households
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
Uruguay:
100%
Barbados:
95%
Jamaica:
45%
Mexico:
33%
Trinidad &
Tobago: 27%
Brazil:
13%
Bahamas:
12%
Ecuador:
12%
Colombia:
11%
Chile:
11%
• Number of Homes Passed not representative of
effective coverage
• Here, the ratio represented is % of FTTH/B Homes
Passed in total households
- 2 countries > 90% !!!
- 3 countries > 20%
- 5 countries over 10%
• Argentina: 8.5%
13. Regarding FTTH/B technologies…
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
94%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Main Fibre architecture
deployed (*) in %
Sept-2016
FTTB
FTTH
*Home Passed segmentation
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
95%
5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Main Fibre technology
deployed (*) in %
Sept-2016
Ethernet
GPON
Aerial vs Underground
• Fibre deployment in LATAM is
perfomed in a big portion by aerial
means.
• Electricity and telephone poles are
commonly used.
• In countries like Barbados, the ratio is
95% aerial vs. 5% underground.
• In Brazil it is estimated 80% aerial vs
20% underground
• In Mexico the ratio is estimated in 60%
aerial vs 40% underground
15. A FTTH/B penetration rate that is continuously increasing
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
Uruguay:
48%
Barbados:
19%
Jamaica: 9%
Mexico:
5%
Trinidad &
Tobago: 10.4%
Brazil:
2.3%
Ecuador:
2.6%
Colombia:
1.8%
Chile:
4.3%
• LATAM has continued the trend to deploy FTTH/B
- 10 countries among 17 studied are in the Global
Ranking:
• Uruguay in the Top 7 in the world!
• 2 countries with a penetration rate > 10%
• 7 other countries with a penetration rate from
1% to 10%
Puerto Rico:
3.4%
Penetration rate = FTTH/B subscribers over total number of households
16. Key points
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
• LATAM users want more reliable Internet services with higher bandwidth:
Players are now convinced that FTTH access is the end game.
Low quality of existing copper as a driver: Telcos are betting on FTTH/B to promise innovative services and higher speed rates
• The competition between cablecos and telcos is a driver for FTTH/B. Some cablecos also
investing in Fiber access
• Players with presence in several countries in the region have realized about the importance to
migrate cooper infrastructure towards fibre.
• In most of cases, FTTH/B and LTE are together deployed in LATAM
• Several Governments in LATAM have promoted the creation of National Fibre Networks
Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Costa Rica
18. A positive evolution in LATAM towards FTTH/B
Source: IDATE for FTTH Council LATAM Chapter
• It is estimated 8.3 Million FTTH/B subscribers and more than 47.1 Million Homes
Passed by 2021
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Millions
TOTAL FTTH/B subscribers
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Millions
TOTAL FTTH/B Homes Passed