The Threat

Splinter and demoralize the left Persuade the center and
center-right
Mobilize the far
right
ON OFFENSE, TRUMP’S BRAND WAS CONSISTENT
I will fight the system for you
• I worked the system, I can fix it
• I’m rich, I can’t be bought
• Also, The Apprentice
• The elites look down on
you
• They lie to you about me
Racist & sexist comments
prove I tell the truth
• She’s a hawk
• She’s a Wall Street
stooge
• Billionaires helped her
steal the primary
Tad Devine, Jill
Stein, angry /
gullible left
They are ALL corrupt
• They all took my $
Especially HER
• Clinton Foundation
• Benghazi
• Attacks rape victims
• FBI / email
• LOCK HER UP
MSM, Talk Radio
• Mexicans are rapists
• Obama is a Kenyan Muslim
who literally founded ISIS
• The Pope endorsed Trump
• Hillary sold plutonium to
Russia
• Killary sells child slaves,
murders FBI agents
Russian bots & trolls, angry /
gullible right
2

ON DEFENSE, TRUMP HANDLED MANY ATTACKS
3

TRUMP RESPONDED BY CHANGING THE SUBJECT
4

THIS STRATEGY RELIED ON A GREAT (HUGE) MEDIA ENGINE
Traditional
politicians
• Aging / creaky lists
• $ to TV in specific
markets driven by
outdated polls
• Consultant-driven,
risk-averse
• Shrill, humorless
outrage
• Wonky, clunky, boring
• Set-piece events with
establishment
• Ever-changing themes
Content
Packaging
Distribution
Trump
• Twitter
• Social media targeted
to key segments
• MSM follows like
lemmings
• Surge just before
election
• $ from Russia with
ruthless operational
support from GOP
opportunists
• The Apprentice &
related fictions
• Taunts & insults
• Talk radio conspiracy
theories
• Actual made-up /
staged stories
• Hacked info
• Innuendo from GOP,
FBI NY alumni
• The system is rigged, I
am the decisive
outsider
• Within that brand
framework, gripping
showmanship &
scapegoating
- Hate themes honed
in stadiums
- Hate memes A/B
tested online
6

SHARED CONTENT SKEWED TOWARD CONSPIRACY NEWS
BERKMAN KLEIN CENTER, AUG 16, 2017
7
• In terms of Twitter shares,
Breitbart anchored the “right” of
national discourse
• Breitbart became comparable in
reach to the New York Times
• Breitbart created a pathway to
amplify content from InfoWars,
etc. through outlets such as Fox
• This ecosystem also influenced
coverage decisions by papers such
as the New York Times

BY SHARES, DJT WAS WONKY & HRC WAS SCANDALOUS
BERKMAN KLEIN CENTER, AUG 16, 2017
Open web, # sentences, 5/1/15 to 11/7/16
8

TRUMP’S ELECTION REVEALED FIVE ELECTORAL SEGMENTS
Resistance
Those
marching,
speaking out
since 11/16
Reagan
Coalition
White Reagan
voters & their
heirs in both
parties
Rising
Electorate
Young voters
and voters of
color, but not
actively resisting
Core
Trumpists
Losers seeking
scapegoats,
using lies &
hate to
mobilize
True
Swing
Split-ticket
and late-
deciding
voters
9
Typical profiles
• Knowledge
workers
• Urban
• Actively
protesting
• Black,
Hispanic,
Asian
• Unmarried
young white
women
• Suburban
minivan
• Two-income
married
• Worried
about future
• Catholics
• Union
households
• Midwest &
Western
centrists
• Furious,
violent
• 4chan/8chan
• Open Nazis
• Deliberate
fabulists

BY SIZE, THE ELECTORATE WAS NOT PRO-TRUMP
Resistance
Those
marching,
speaking out
since 11/16
Reagan
Coalition
White Reagan
voters & their
heirs in both
parties
Rising
Electorate
Voters of color,
young women
not actively
resisting
Core
Trumpists
Losers seeking
scapegoats,
using lies &
hate to
mobilize
True
Swing
Split-ticket
and late-
deciding
voters
25 100 15 74 25
Portion of the electorate (millions of eligible voters in 2016)
10

BUT TRUMP’S MESSAGE CHANGED THE ELECTORATE
Resistance ReaganitesRising TrumpistsSwing
• 1.5m votes
to Stein (>
DJT margin
in MI, WI,
PA)
• Weak
millennial
turnout
• Black turnout
down 4.7%
from 2012
• DJT vote +2%
among blacks
& Hispanics vs.
Romney in ’12
• Former
Obama voters
said Dems
were “elites”
• Double-digit
margins
among swing
voters in Rust
Belt states
• Late-deciding
voters broke
for DJT by net
2.3 points
(per 538)
• Trump lost
union
households by
only 8%, best
GOP since ’84
• Bush-Obama-
Trump voters
said Dems
favored elites
• Deplorables
got fired up
• White vote
up 2.4%
from 2012,
driven by
those w/o
college
11
Splinter and demoralize the left Persuade the center and
center-right
Mobilize the far
right

SEGMENT BY SEGMENT, BY THE NUMBERS
’16 turnout by segment
(millions)
(as % of total)
18 42 8 55 17
Resistance ReaganitesRising TrumpistsSwing
‘16 vote allocation by segment
Clinton vs. Trump
12

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS NOW THE PARTY OF TRUMP
15

THE REPUBLICAN PARTY IS NOW THE PARTY OF TRUMP
16
President Trump enjoys public support
(despite private gripes) from most of
the 49 other Senate Republicans and
239 House Republicans, including every
person in elected leadership. Trump
got standing ovations from Senate
Republicans, with Corker in the room.
This flows from his strong, sustained
support of GOP voters.

TRUMP’S GOP HAS A BIG 2018 ADVANTAGE
1. In the House, gerrymandering means Dems can win 54% - 46% & still lose House
2. In the Senate, Dems are defending 25 seats, incl. 10 in states Trump won
3. GOP honing its playbook: attacking elites (media, deep state) & leaning on fake news
4. Dems will be competitive in open dollars, but the GOP has a much better dark money
architecture
5. Turnout among blue-leaning segments even worse in mid-term elections
Total eligible voters (2016 = 239 million)
Presidential-year voters (2016 = 139 million)
Midterm voters (2014 = 83 million)
17

GOP KNOWS HOW TO RE-ELECT ITS LEADERS
Although most don’t like or trust Trump … if the election had been held again in late
April, Trump would have not only won the Electoral College, but the popular vote as
well – despite his declining approval rating. …
[What] matters most is not how the public feels about the incumbent, but how they
feel about the most likely alternative. … Democrats are viewed as being more “out of
touch” with average Americans than Trump or the Republicans. …
Consider the example of George W. Bush, who [lost the popular vote, diverged from
his campaign themes, made mistakes, and perhaps broke the law]. Yet he won
reelection in 2004 by a healthy 3.5 million votes.
“Trump Will Likely Win Reelection in 2020,” May 10, 2017
Democrats [in Wisconsin] were lulled into a sense of confidence as 2011 drew to a close,
when polls showed [Governor Scott] Walker losing in [a recall]. Labor unions, public
employee unions, college students, and progressives … were united and determined. They
were confident.
The Federalist, February 23, 2015
18

TRUMP’S “BASE” STRATEGY IS ON TRACK
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
• Support ranges from 79% to
89%
• Mostly higher than Reagan
over similar time period
• Well above Obama’s low
among Democrats (72%)
• Among those who voted for
him in the primary, he is at
98%
Gallup Tracking Poll
Trump retains GOP voters, and …
… the numbers show a path to Trump victory
Trump Has Upside
• Gallup shows his highest approval on economy and
terrorism, key voter issues
• FiveThirtyEight 8/11 put his approval at 37.4%; Bill
Clinton’s was 36.8% in his first summer
• Zogby 8/8 showed support rebounding among
union households, independents, Hispanic voters,
and Western voters
Running against Democrats is easy as Ossoff
• Zogby 6/16 = Schumer and Pelosi have 33% and
29% approval ratings
• HuffPo = Pelosi gets 25-28% approval; Schumer gets
16-24%
19

PLUS, TRUMP IS USING A DIFFERENT PLAYBOOK
20

21

22

23

24

25

Rory Carroll, The New Statesman, February 4, 2017
“I covered [Venezuelan President Hugo] Chávez from 2006 to 2012 before moving to the United
States. I am now struck daily by a sense of déjà vu. Trump is using the same playbook. The
fixation with crowd sizes and victory margins in elections, the war on the media, the threats against
companies, the conspiracy theories, the strange cabinet appointments, the picking of fights with
neighbors, the blizzard of stunts and executive actions, is all pure Chávez. …
Chávez, who died in 2013, ruined the economy and gutted institutions, but he won election after
election and is still revered by millions. If Trump is even half as shrewd, he will win again in 2020.
…
No matter what the boss does, or what is reported, it can all be framed as Trump v Media, and by
extension Trump v Establishment. The longer he is in office the more useful this will be – he can be
forever the insurgent, his heart in the right place, battling the elites. …
A third of the population adored [Chávez], a third loathed him; and, come election time, he
courted the floating middle … by baiting his opponents, and they fell for it. They bellowed and
marched, feeling powerful. Yet their tone and rhetoric alienated people. The floaters sided with
the guy who spoke their language.”
26

THE FASCIST PLAYBOOK IS OLD AND GRIMLY PREDICTABLE
Crush civil society
Project strength
Maintain brand
of success
• Celebrate wealth
• Celebrate youth &
beauty
Demonize enemies
Distribute power
to loyalists
• $ to coal, oil,
banks, big donors,
family
Use military
actions
• Korea
• Syria
• MOAB
Dismantle checks
• Discredit courts, IC,
bureaucrats
• Loyalty oaths
Delegitimize
truth
• Lie & demand lies
• Defund science
• Call MSM fake;
promote tabloids
Independent
firepower
• Hire personal security
• More weapons (cops,
paramilitaries)
• Encourage anger, fear
Incite hatred
• Hype, fake, or stage
threat from “violent
leftists,” minorities,
immigrants
Eliminate rivals
• Humiliate & attack
both parties’ leaders
• Undermine, fire staff
Attack
establishment
• Blame “elites”
• Especially Jews (Soros),
nonwhites (Obama), &
women (Hillary)
27

THE FASCIST PLAYBOOK IS OLD AND GRIMLY PREDICTABLE
Crush civil society
Project strength
Demonize enemies
Delegitimize
truth
• Lie & demand lies
• Defund science
• Call MSM fake;
promote tabloids 28

THE ASSAULT ON TRUTH IS VITAL TO TOTALITARIANISM
29
The result of a consistent and total
substitution of lies for factual
truth is not that the lies will now
be accepted as truth…but that the
sense by which we take our
bearings in the real world…is being
destroyed.
The totalitarian mass leaders based their propaganda on
the correct psychological assumption that, under such
conditions, one could make people believe the most
fantastic statements one day, and trust that if the next
day they were given irrefutable proof of their falsehood,
they would take refuge in cynicism; instead of deserting
the leaders who had lied to them, they would protest
that they had known all along that the statement was a
lie and would admire the leaders for their superior
tactical cleverness.

THE ASSAULT ON TRUTH IS WELL UNDERWAY

President Trump, September 30, 2017
San Juan mayor and others haven't pitched in
with Puerto Rico relief.

President Trump told congressional leaders that as many as 5
million people voted illegally in the presidential election
Politico, January 2017
Sean Spicer, official press briefing (referring to 2008
election), January 2017
14 percent of people who voted were noncitizens

President Trump told congressional leaders that as many as 5
million people voted illegally in the presidential election
Politico, January 2017
Sean Spicer, official press briefing (referring to 2008
election), January 2017
14 percent of people who voted were noncitizens
President Trump, February 6, 2017
Any negative polls are fake news, just like the
CNN, ABC, NBC polls in the election

A HOSTILE FOREIGN POWER IS HELPING THE DECEIT
38

THE ASSAULT ON TRUTH WILL NOT STOP
39
The country believes me. Hey. I went to Kentucky
two nights ago, we had 25,000 people in a
massive basketball arena. There wasn’t a seat,
they had to send away people. I went to
Tennessee four nights ago. We had a packed
house, they had to send away thousands of
people.
No I am saying I was right. … What
am I going to tell you? I tend to be
right. I’m an instinctual person, I
happen to be a person that knows
how life works.

40
Autocrats when caught:
1: Deny, lie, slander accusers.
2: Say it was a misunderstanding.
3. Boast & say "What are you going to do about it?"
Garry Kasparov, July 12, 2017
It is not the lies that pose the existential danger to
democracy. It’s the lying, the kind of thoroughgoing lying
that gives rise to a whole new reality or, better still, to no
reality at all.
Brooke Gladstone, On The Media, May 16, 2017

41
If you take President Trump’s words literally, you
have no choice but to conclude that he is
psychotic.
John Gartner, former faculty at the
Johns Hopkins Department of
Psychiatry, USA Today, May 4, 2017
GOP TX Senator Ted Cruz, May 3, 2016
This man is a pathological liar. He doesn't know the
difference between truth and lies. He lies practically
every word that comes out of his mouth.

ALMOST HALF THE COUNTRY BELIEVES THESE LIES
42

Trump Holds Rally in Iowa
June 22, 2017, 10:55 AM
THEY BELIEVE TRUMP B/C HE ATTACKS “THE SYSTEM”
43

THEY BELIEVE TRUMP B/C HE ATTACKS “THE SYSTEM”
RON KRon Klain, “Don’t Underestimate Trump,” The Washington Post, May 18, 2017
“Trump is an incredibly skilled politician. He did not come to the presidency by accident: He
spent 30 years laying the groundwork for his run — attacking President Ronald Reagan on
trade in the 1980s, putting out a campaign book in 2000, forcing President Barack Obama to
release his birth certificate in 2011. …
While Trump has falsely boasted about many things, he was probably right when he said that
he “could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody” and still maintain their
support. Trump’s “tribal” supporters back him, not because of what Trump does or says, but
because they want the affiliation they enjoy as Trump supporters. …
Trump’s die-hard supporters are more devoted to Trump than they are to the rule of law. …
A Trump campaign email [labeled] the growing scrutiny of Trump as “sabotage,” accusing
government officials of being against an “America First agenda” and urging supporters to
“be prepared to go into the trenches to FIGHT.”
44

TRUMP’S ALLIES ARE USING THE SAME MESSAGE
NRA Facebook Recruiting Video, “The Violence of Lies,” April
45

They use their media to assassinate real news. They use their schools to teach children
that their president is another Hitler. They use their movie stars and singers and
comedy shows and award shows to repeat their narrative over and over again. And
then they use their ex-president to endorse “the resistance.”
All to make them march. Make them protest. Make them scream racism and sexism and
xenophobia and homophobia. To smash windows, burn cars, shut down interstates
and airports, bully and terrorize the law-abiding — until the only option left is for the
police to do their jobs and stop the madness.
And when that happens, they’ll use it as an excuse for their outrage. The only way we
stop this, the only way we save our country and our freedom, is to fight this violence
of lies with the clenched fist of truth.
NRA Facebook Recruiting Video, “The Violence of Lies,” April
46

47
Michael Savage is a
radio personality with
millions of listeners and
four New York Times
bestselling books. This
is his latest cover and
these are some of his
chapter titles.

“If conservatives respond to this aggressive,
sometimes violent hostility from the Left with
confusion, uncertainty, and appeasement, we are
guaranteed to lose the struggle to drain the
swamp and reform Washington. Further,
surrendering will destroy America as we know it.
Far from making America great again, we will have
yielded our country to left-wing thugs, liars, and
intimidators. Those of us who truly want to make
America great again have one choice: Fight.”
Newt Gingrich, Fox News, May 18
48

THEY WILL FAKE, EXAGGERATE, INCITE, & STAGE VIOLENCE
Joseph Bernstein, Buzzfeed News, January 11, 2017
49

Joseph Bernstein, Buzzfeed News, January 11, 2017
… the "Rape Melania" sign was not the work of an anti-Trump protester at all.
Instead, according to sources, it was the brainchild of a group of Trump supporters
led by Jack Posobiec, … a prominent figure in the pro-Trump internet.
Furthermore, as shown by a series of Posobiec's text messages obtained by
BuzzFeed News and confirmed by a source who collaborated with Posobiec, the
sign was the culmination of a disinformation campaign by Posobiec and others
intended to paint the anti-Trump rallies as violent and out of control. …
In a 10:30 p.m. text message that same night, Posobiec claimed that he'd started
an "assassinate Trump" chant to goad protesters into copying him, with the
intention of filming them.
Though the video didn't go viral, it was picked up by Russia Today and some
conservative blogs.
50

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52

RACE WAR IS A CORE PART OF THIS TRIBALISM
53

54

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Killings of Police Officers by
Extremists, USA, 1965-2014
30 million Americans now believe that neo-Nazi
and white nationalist viewpoints are acceptable.
ABC-Washington Post poll, August 16-20, 2017

TRUMP’S ALLIES ARE USING THESE LIES TO SUPPRESS VOTES
56

2017 ELECTIONS = HOPE, BUT NOT ENOUGH YET
57
• Yes, 2017 elections saw an anti-Trump surge of turnout among highly educated voters
• But the Virginia maps from November 2017 show the limits of that approach: Democrats did
well in faster-growing, more-prosperous precincts, but actually lost ground in poor, rural areas
• The GA-06 election shows how Trumpism can win in such an environment
• If 2017 is the best we can do, Trump’s Republicans will keep power in 2018 and 2020

BOTTOM LINE: IT CAN HAPPEN HERE
• Bait into
fringe issues,
violence
• Suppress
votes or cheat
• Demoralize
• Run against
violent left
• Claim credit
for jobs
• Crush rivals
• Discredit
truth
• Identity
politics /
race war
• Suppress votes
• Keep Congress
Beyond
• Use R control to avoid
investigations, suppress
voters and voting
• October surprise to rally
the electorate
• More freedom of action
after 4 years consolidating
power
20202018
Trump is has already released ads attacking “enemies;” his allies are aligned around a “violent
leftist” narrative based on falsified evidence, viral videos, radio talk shows, and social media
Neither Democrats nor Republicans have a real plan to stop him
If we want to save our country and democracy, we must do better . . . starting now
58

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