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Do you know how fast you are going? Agile Tour London 2015

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Slides from my presentation at Agile Tour London 2015
Challenges of Agile / Lean team measurement covering efficiency, effectiveness and people. Challenging to measure better.

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Do you know how fast you are going? Agile Tour London 2015

  1. 1. 1 Do you know how fast you are going?
  2. 2. 2 At We are starting to try to collect the data to find out, and to get relativity we need others to join us! Douglas Talbot Douglas.Talbot@Ocado.com @douglastalbot Head of Organisational Effectiveness Thought provoker and Catalyst
  3. 3. 3 Ocado icons
  4. 4. 4 Stage 1 - Evolution Admit the problem!
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 6 Can we estimate?
  7. 7. 7 The goal estimate is ‘‘the most optimistic prediction that has a non-zero probability of coming true’’ - Tom DeMarco 1982
  8. 8. 8 Focal Bias Anchoring and Adjustment problems Motivation Perceived power Social cues Temporal perspective Unpacking Deliberation etc etc etc The team scaling fallacy The Planning Fallacy
  9. 9. 9 Dunning – Kruger effect Unrealistic optimism Over estimating desirable effects Over confidence in judgement Information deficits Ill defined nature of competence Information neglect Focus on the self Influenced by external cues Self Perception Fallacy
  10. 10. 10 Flawed self assessment StanfordEdu - Biased Self Views.pdf
  11. 11. 11 80% of developers think they are above average XKCD 715
  12. 12. 12 80% of software teams think they are above average
  13. 13. 13 Stage 1 Shall we admit the problem?
  14. 14. 14 Stage 2 - Evolution Start to measure
  15. 15. 15 20
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  24. 24. 24 So lets imagine we have all of these
  25. 25. 25 Do we know how fast we are going?
  26. 26. 26 We can probably all make a quick judgement about having more data ...
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  29. 29. 29 Stage 2 - Efficiency measurement
  30. 30. 30 We can compare ourselves to our last attempt - How much did we do? - Has our quality got better? - How fast can we deliver change?
  31. 31. 31 We have an Efficiency measure Do you think this team is going fast?: Lead time: 103 days Cycle time: 81 days Efficiency: 49.5 / 81 = 61% Throughput: 6 Small features 3 Medium features 1 Large feature / 81 days
  32. 32. 32 We can probably even answer more esoteric questions - How predictable is that? Can we better use our people?
  33. 33. 33 Efficiency measurement There have been studies considering this in far more detail looking at best methods for: TCO - Total Cost of Ownership, CoQ - Cost of quality, Speed1 Factors of success, Factors of value, Project failure rates2 1.InfoQ - Evaluating agile software methodologies 2.http://www.standishgroup.com/Reports2015
  34. 34. 34 But are we missing some important knowledge?
  35. 35. 35 So what do we need? Your turn
  36. 36. 36 How many of you measure value? Standish 1995 - 80% of projects cost more than the value they delivered!
  37. 37. 37 Stage 3 - Evolution Measure more meaningfully
  38. 38. 38 Delighted customers
  39. 39. 39 Effectiveness - Customer retention - Customer acquisition - Spend / shop - Social networks - etc etc etc - NOT vanity metrics
  40. 40. 40 Make money or Deliver mission
  41. 41. 41 Effectiveness - Share price - Profit - Crime lowered - People saved - Fewer accidents - More biodiversity
  42. 42. 42 Happy Organisation / Boss
  43. 43. 43 Effectiveness - Was it worth it (ROI)? - Creativity - Innovation - On time - On budget - Impressive brand win - Lower costs to recruit
  44. 44. 44 What should we be measuring about ourselves as a team to be the best we can be for our businesses and create trust/belief in our integrity and skills?
  45. 45. 45 Stage 3 - Effectiveness measurement
  46. 46. 46 Effectiveness Do you think this team is going fast?: Value: + £231,000 sales volume, +2% customer retention +1% customer acquisition on previous rate in the last 30 days
  47. 47. 47 Bibliography  David Anderson  Don Reinertsen  Eric Ries  Mary Poppendieck
  48. 48. 48 What other measures do we need to know how fast we are going? Your turn again
  49. 49. 49 Stage 4 - People measurement
  50. 50. 50 Engaged team = faster team?
  51. 51. 51 Happy organisation? Ocado Technology Adjusted data for example
  52. 52. 52 Fast team? Sentiment No. of answers Overall 0.588 100 Department 1 0.928 2 Department 2 0.785 16 Department 3 0.727 20 Department 4 0.680 10 Department 5 0.591 1 Department 6 0.544 17 Department 7 0.538 15 Department 8 0.516 5 Department 9 0.246 3 Department 10 0.234 1 Department 11 0.124 10 Ocado Technology Adjusted data for example
  53. 53. 53 Can we know what this does to Efficiency and Effectiveness? Sentiment No. of answers Overall 0.588 100 Department 1 0.928 2 Department 2 0.785 16 Department 3 0.727 20 Department 4 0.680 10 Department 5 0.591 1 Department 6 0.544 17 Department 7 0.538 15 Department 8 0.516 5 Department 9 0.246 3 Department 10 0.234 1 Department 11 0.124 10 Ocado Technology Adjusted data for example
  54. 54. 54 Adam Tomhill – Code as a crime scene
  55. 55. 55 But are we missing some important knowledge? Do we really know how fast we are going yet?
  56. 56. 56 20 /but What’s the difference? 400
  57. 57. 57 20
  58. 58. 58 How would you really know you’re FAST? or better than average? or Awesome?
  59. 59. 59 Let’s try Efficiency - 61% Value add, Throughput – 3 Medium features / 81 days Value - £231,000 and 2% new customers in the last 30 days We have a sentiment score of 0.8
  60. 60. 60 Is that fast, > average, or awesome? How much faster can we get? How fast learning are we? Some questions
  61. 61. 61 “If you’re not moving at the speed of the market you’re already dead … you just haven’t stopped breathing yet” - Jack Welch, CEO GE Are our devs / teams at market speed?
  62. 62. 62 Relative Productivity? + Relative Lead time? + Relative Speed to pivot capacity?
  63. 63. 63 At We are starting to try to collect the data to find out. But, to get relativity we need others to join us!
  64. 64. 64 Internal Relativity Team rotation Peer feedback Health checks Internal code quality Failure demand ratio
  65. 65. 65 University scholars compete Even lawyers have potential comparative measures External Relativity
  66. 66. 66 Why would I hire you as a software developer or your software development team? How fast do you go?
  67. 67. 67
  68. 68. 68 The how discussion! Coding competition?1 Trust for Productivity study?2 Team rotation? Common assessment model? But for teams? Hopefully brainstorm time 1.Peopleware, Timothy Lister & Tom de Marco 2.Teams in the test tube
  69. 69. 69 At We are starting to try to collect the data to find out, and to get relativity we need others to join us! Please come and chat! Make contact if you are interested in this challenge. Douglas Talbot Douglas.Talbot@Ocado.com @douglastalbot I’m hiring Catalysts / Coaches!

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