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dsfs
18th
August 2014
CONTINUED…
A combination of extreme price volatility and a
secular bear market for silver, suggests investors
have had a hard time positioning themselves in the
metal short-midterm, exiting the market in droves
in the last 3 years or so. Certainly if one were to
look purely at the price action for silver in the
futures and spot markets this conclusion would be
difficult to argue with. Contrarian investors with a
global macro view on performance of an asset
class will customarily dig a bit deeper to identify
levers beneath market trends before deciding
whether to invest capital behind them.
It should not surprise these investors that
capitulation of the silver price at the start of this
month entered its first phase 2 months before
shortly after the Federal Reserve sent a shot across
the bows to the market in Autumn. On the 19th
September 2014, the day after the market digested
a Fed policy release reiterating plans to end asset
purchases, the silver market fell sharply from
$18.43 per ounce. This gave silver investors their
first taste of what was to come when the Fed
ended tapering in October. The dip in the silver
market followed a sell-off in gold, sinking just
under 2% (60 cents) to $17.87 per ounce, the
lowest since July 2010, Wall Street Journal,
Tatyana Shumsky, September 18, 2014.
Shrewd investors will no doubt have been
watching these events with some interest, with
good reason. This pattern of a price smash in the
metal to 4 year lows in the aftermath of signposted
Fed action, was a signal from the market, which
would be repeated twice in as many months.
Investors accustomed to the concept of a 'Fed Put'
under the markets will no doubt have viewed
September’s price volatility as a telegraph to short
sellers to ready themselves for a hike in the dollar
and a dip in precious metals, alerting the longs on
the sidelines to steel themselves for another major
buying opportunity.
Those less fortunate, who may have had their
fingers burned in either recent price smashes or
the secular bull market in silver, the story on long
plays in precious metal may be over.
Open Access Market For Silver?
In the notoriously volatile market for white metals, silver investors were forced to bite
the bullet this year. Silver futures dropped 16% hot on the heels of a 36% decline in
2013, Bloomberg, November 19, 2014. For much of the year the price of silver has
bounced around the $19 mark before breaking though this support beginning a long
downtrend in September 2014.
Bear Market for Silver
The omens were not good for precious metals at the start of Autumn. In a single day on
the 30th October gold erased all gains for 2014 falling below $1,200 per ounce whilst
silver slumped to a 55 month low at around $16.30 per ounce, Bloomberg, October 30,
2014. The sell-off continued the next day with silver bottoming at $16.15. The start of
this month was a particularly brutal period for those holding long positions in silver as
the precious metals market suffered one of its biggest routs in over 4 years. On the 5th
November 2014, ‘Silver fell as much as 5% to $15 an ounce, its weakest since February
2010,’ Reuters reported. In fact the price of silver contracts had hit a low of $15.12,
Bloomberg confirmed the following day. This was a small discrepancy in the price of
silver that would prove to be of much greater portent, as this analysis will illustrate
later. The other white metals suffered less price volatility but significant declines.
‘Platinum fell 0.6% to $1,208.95 an ounce, close to its lowest since 2009, while palladium
fell 3.5% to $756 an ounce’, Reuters, November 5, 2014. In typical fashion, the price
action for the white metals mimicked and amplified the gold price which sank 1.8%, to
$1,146.50 per ounce, the lowest since mid-2010.
The paper sell-off in the silver market this month was a mere low water mark in a price
smash of around 70% for the metal over the last 3.5 years. As Figure 1 illustrates, the
silver market has provided a white knuckle ride for investors with a strong constitution
in the last 15 years. Along with the spills there have been thrills. At one time trading
near the $5 range (2000/04), silver made a historic move upward peaking at $49.82 on
April 26 2011. This followed a 3 month rally in the price which had jumped 52% that
year alone. The intraday high that April broke a nominal closing record of $48.70 which
had lasted for over 30 years and which had been set in 1980, Wall Street Journal, April
26, 2011.
Fig. 1: 15 year silver price.
.
Prepared by Dr Marcus Bent, Linear Global Wealth
Y O U R E Y E O N T H E F I N A N C I A L M A R K E T S
30th
November 2014
Research Note 7
CONTINUED………
Fig 3: Silver ETF Holdings
Figure 3 displays daily holdings of silver per millions ounces, for the
largest participants in this sector. The ETF market is dominated by one
player IShares Silver Trust (SLV). SLV came into the market in April
2006 and within less than a month increased its holdings above 100
million ounces of silver.
To compound sector woes, large swathes of the business press have written off
silver as a short - midterm play. In the main this view is based on assumptions
about an improved outlook for the US economy and a strengthening dollar.
Bloomberg’s Debarati Roy and Nicholas Larkin repeated a view prevalent in the
mainstream; “a stronger economy is validating optimism, prompting the Federal
Reserve to declare it will cease to buy debt, further diminishing the appeal of
precious metals [as] an inflation hedge” Bloomberg, October 30th 2014. The view
of the market right now seems to be that investor confidence in the metal won’t
be turning corners, anytime soon. However Linear analysts take a different
view. We think the fundamentals of the silver market are extremely bullish for
physical silver prices in future and that other factors are underpinning the
current bear market for silver. These factors suggest a major reversal in the
price of silver could be imminent. Some of these factors I will now discuss.
Fundamental Trends: Demand for Physical Silver
Perhaps the most striking of these factors is the disconnect between the price
action for silver in the futures market and underlying buying activity in the
physical market. There appears to be a strange paradox at the heart of this
market right now. Sustained selling of silver in the last 1.5 years and a secular
bear market in the last 3.5 years suggest investors have become somewhat
conditioned to weakness in the sector. In this environment experienced short
traders and those who wish to limit their exposure to silver could be looking
for reasons to take the market lower, compounding sector woes. However, lack
of investor appetite for silver is not registering in global acquisition of
physicals or open interest in silver on the COMEX futures exchange. This is
borne out by figures provided by the CPM Group on Demand and Use of Silver,
(see figure 2). The figures provided by the CPM have not been completed for
2014 so only show industrial demand for silver up until 2013.
At present industry accounts for 50% of global demand. The chart below
represents annual data on industrial demand for silver measured in millions of
ounces. This clearly shows an uptrend in industrial demand from 2010 which
peaked at 1000 million ounces last year. In fact industrial demand has been
rising steadily since 1980. Industrial demand improves after falling by approx.
200 million ounces near the start of the financial crisis 2008-9. A resurgence in
demand from industry adds a further 100 million ounces 2009-13 taking the
silver price from $14 through $35. This illustrates that demand in the sector
proves to be resilient after 2009 despite a major crash of investor confidence
and a slump in the share price.
Whilst industrial demand from traditional applications like photography,
jewellery/ silverware and electronics appear to fall after 2008, new industrial
uses such as for nanotech and medicine take up the slack driving demand
forward.
Fig 2: Industrial Demand for Silver
Contrary to what one might expect, industrial demand
for silver has bucked the trend towards lower silver
prices from 2011.
To get a better sense of the factors underpinning the
price action for silver in recent years a more complete
picture is required of silver demand. The remaining
50% of physical demand now comes from the
investment sector. Institutional demand is therefore a
good litmus test for the buoyance of appetite for silver in
the physicals market in recent years.
Silver is not held by central banks as currency or capital
reserves. Therefore a large proportion of investment
demand comes from big players like ETF’s, mutual
funds, etc. Retail buyers of coins and bars also account
for a fair slice of investment demand. Each of these
verticals will be examined independently.
The data on ETF demand for physical silver is somewhat
startling. Daily data on silver holdings by ETF's indicate
this type of demand has exploded since the start of the
financial crisis when the ETF market for silver first
established a global presence. Two charts illustrate this
trend, (See figures 3 and 4).
Other big operators in this market like Julius Baer,
ETF-Securities, ZKB, Sprott and Deutsche Bank have
mirrored the trend of aggressive expansion of silver
holdings since the financial crisis.
In a year where both price and demand for silver
has been fairly volatile, ETF's increased their
holdings, 2014. As anticipated, demand appears to
pick up across the sector towards the back end of
this year when prices fell to historic lows.
Investors will have no doubt noted ETF holdings
have not mirrored the downtrend for the silver
price since 2011. In fact, like the industrial sector,
ETF's have increased their holding of silver as the
asset price has been smashed.
For completeness investors should consult the chart below illustrating total
silver holdings across the investment sector, i.e. ETF’s, Repositories, Mutual
funds, (see figure 4).
The pattern of silver acquisition by these large entities is highly revealing.
Investors may for instance be surprised to learn that silver held in warehouses
on the COMEX Futures Exchange have increased rather than decreased
between 2011-14, contrary to the trend for silver futures prices in the period.
This is a matter we will return to later. The graph indicates that demand for
silver across sector is up slightly this year. Appetite for silver appears to mirror
the trend in the ETF sector, i.e. volatility and an uptrend toward the back end of
the year. Overall transparent silver holdings increased 80m ounces (850m–
930m), 2013 to date. Beside the general trend for explosive growth in silver
holdings by most of the players in this sector since 2006, irrespective of end
use of the commodity, this chart clearly shows that within a few short years
demand the silver in this sector almost matches that of industry at around
930m ounce.
Fig 4: Institutional Demand for Silver.
The data thus far would suggest that ordinary retail investors in silver take a
relatively small slice of the pie after industrial and institutional demand is
satisfied. Purchase of silver coins and bars from well established mints in the
most mature markets (North America, UK and Australia) should provide an
indication of sentiment among ordinary investors. Sales of silver coins by the
US is represented in the next graph (figure 5).
The figures would suggest there has been a clear increase in appetite for
American silver coins from investors in the last 10 years but particularly in the
last 3-4 years. Demand remained relatively stable at 5-10m ounces per year,
1990-2007. Sales then suddenly spike 100% the following year (2008). With
the exception of 2011, sales continued to rise steadily before peaking last year
at around 42m ounces. Whilst figures for 2014 are not yet complete, buyer
interest in silver coins looks to be resilient this year. To October 2014, approx.
36,066,000m coins were sold by the US Mint. Projected sales of American Eagle
Silver coins are expected to exceed last year’s record, October 21, 2014,
Smaulgold.com
An increased demand for US silver coins appears to
replicate the wider trend for the investment sector,
(i.e. a strong uptrend from 2007/08). With silver
trading at rock bottom prices, it should come as no
surprise that demand for silver coins has soared. In
fact 2013 was a record year for sales of silver bars
and coins increasing 76% globally from 2012.
Investors seem to be increasing holdings whenever
there is spare supply. A number of government
mints around the world reported record sales of
silver bars and coins last year. Most notable were
sales of American Eagle Silver Coins (42.7m),
Canadian Silver Maple Leaf (28m), Australian
Kookaburra (8.6m) Britannia and Sovereign
(2,125,000m). In the case of the UK royal mint sales
almost quadrupled from the previous reporting year
(560,000).
It would appear that far from being scared off by the
price smash in silver, investor appetite for silver
coins increased last year, outstripping even that for
gold. The ratio of American Eagle Silver coin sales
relative to gold equivalents last year was 100:1 (42,
653,000: 476,500 respectively). Louis
Cammarosano, Smaulgold.com October 21, 2014.
A surge in investor demand for coins is unlikely to
distort the wholesale market for silver in any great
measure due to the relatively small size of this
constituent. Demand for coins could however have
an outsize effect on tightening in a secondary
market that has little slack as a result of increased
buying from larger players as figures 2 & 4 appears
to show. This possibility is of course contrary to
what the price action for silver has been signaling
for well over 3 years and also what many market
pundits have been suggesting is happening. Up until
fairly recently that is
Fig 5: US Silver Coin Sales
CONTINUED…..
Retail investors can be forgiven for any confusion they may have about the signals being sent by the market for precious metals. The
buying phenomenon described above is not widely reported in the business press and such reports tend to surface only when silver
shortages reach crisis point, as was the case this year and last. Earlier this month Bloomberg was forced to acknowledged that the U.S.
Mint had ran out of American Eagle Silver coins on the 5th November due to a 40% increase in demand in October 2014. Demand for
these coins jumped 1.26m ounces to 5.79 million ounces, Bloomberg, November 6, 2014. The Royal Mint of Canada also needed to ration
its Silver Maple Leaf coins to global distributors due to high demand this September, Reuters, November 5th, 2014.
The spike in demand for silver coins in both months of course coincided with the price smash for the metal to 4 year lows in October and
November. Given aggressive acquisition of silver in the ETF market from 2006, it is unsurprising that underlying buying momentum in
the silver market was enough to move holdings in Exchange traded products backed by silver to record levels this October, Debarati Roy,
Bloomberg, November 6, 2014.
Fundamental Trends: Supply of Physical Silver
The data on supply of silver in the last two years would suggest a squeeze may already be occurring in the physical
silver market. Approximately 26,000 tons of silver are produced above ground by mining companies each year,
Goldcore.com. According to the Silver Institute, supply of silver fell in 2013 on the previous year.
Whilst mine production actually grew last year by 3.4 percent (819m ounces), supply from above-ground stocks
dropped by 23.2 percent to 199.7m ounces. As a consequence total visible supply actually fell 2012/13 from 1,052.3 –
1,019.4 million ounces. Shrewd investors will note that total supply of physical silver therefore roughly matches total
demand from industry in 2013, give or take 20 million ounces! Figure 6, represents data on Surplus v Deficits in supply
of silver in 2013 (Silver Institute data). This data illustrates the trend perfectly.
At this stage I will also draw investor attention to the demand data in figures 2 and 4. Taken together, demand for silver
from industry and investment holdings was approx. 2000m ounces last year. This suggests a shortfall of approx. 1000m
ounces of silver has to be covered to meet demand. Most of the silver needed by industry will be used for industrial
applications, so manufacturers will presumably prefer to take physical delivery of this supply. Any additional demand
would have to be covered by the stock of silver already in circulation. An explosion in demand for physicals since 2006
would indicate this stock is in short supply. The data suggests there is major rehypothecation of physical silver occurring
in the paper market for silver in order to meet total demand from industry and investment sectors. In other words
warehouses in the COMEX Futures Exchange and ETFs do not contain anywhere near sufficient silver to back paper claims
for silver. This should be a major red flag for investors currently in futures contracts for silver and in ETF certificates of
deposit who intend to either take physical delivery or redeem silver at some point.
It is worth pointing out that the Silver Institute figures on visible supply do not include metal withdrawn from ETF’s,
Futures Exchanges or from de-hedging. Over half of world’s silver is produced in 4 countries, namely Mexico, Peru,
China and Australia. As we head towards what many predict is an economic slowdown in major silver producing
regions of the world like Latin America, China and Russia, the stage is set for a further squeeze in the silver supply
chain over the short to midterm. It is clear from the data on the fundamentals of the metal market that silver is trading
at valuations far too cheap which have driven huge demand in the physical market, fuelled by artificially low prices. In
the view of Linear analysts this is highly likely to increase tightening of the physicals market.
Fig 6: Total Production for silver
With a clearer picture of the supply and demand dynamics underpinning this market, the gyrations seen recently in the
price of silver should now be more intelligible.
Silver Futures
Those investors that successfully sold on the dips in silver futures this Autumn, appear to have achieved the impossible.
Somehow these shorts have been able to predict falling prices in a market where underlying demand for physical silver
is rising and supply is tightening. The current situation would appear to not only turn the law of supply and demand on
its head, but also suggest principles underpinning price discovery in a free market have altered for precious metals in
the last 4-5 years.
It would take a brave investor to navigate these waters and call the dips with confidence, yet information on trading
activity in the silver futures market this year would suggest there are spectacularly lucky shorts out there. Either that
or there is major interference happening in the silver market on a systematic basis.
Technical Trends: Flash Crash in Silver Futures Price
To illustrate this principle an analysis is needed of trading patterns in the most volatile periods in the silver market this year,
(i.e. Q3-Q4). A trend that has arisen in trading in the silver futures markets this year is the phenomenon of random and brutal
attacks to the downside via paper sell-off’s. Far from random occurrences, Linear analysts believe there are patterns to such
events. These attacks occur in a variety of guises at times when dealing volumes are low before open and after the close of
major futures exchanges in America and Europe. This can increase the build up of unsettled contracts for silver (open interest).
This activity takes the form of flash crashes where the price will nosedive violently in a few tics then right itself
instantaneously, naked shorts and large puts. Linear analysts are not the only market participants monitoring this trend. This
phenomenon is now well documented and has been discussed by prominent technical traders in the silver market.
A noted contributor to this data is John Embry, an expert on technical analysis of silver trades and a major silver dealer. He has
particularly analysed trading in the electronic access markets. He has reported anomalous trading activity in this market on a
number of occasions this year. By close of trading on 3rd November 2014 the silver price had for instance fallen 130 days out of
the last 135 trading days in the thinly traded quiet access market, during the early hours, USA, East Coast time. As a prime
example of this activity, silver fell 25 cents, or 1.5% in the quiet trading period on the 28th September, 2014, John Embry, CIO of
Sprott Asset Management, 3rd November 2014. Recent examples of large downtrends in light trading in the access markets are
shown in figures 7 & 8. In terms of the law of averages, the chances of this happening due to an operation of the free market are
remote. Consistent downtrends in the price of silver during light trading on the COMEX (the largest futures exchange for silver
in the world), should be a rare event and bears the hallmark of market manipulation. This trend is consistent with the use of
high frequency and algorithm programs to short silver and depress sentiment in the market before crucial open times. The net
effect will be to undermine investor confidence in the metal and set the tone for a negative trading day.
Fig 8: Silver Market Eastern Time (US) 31/10/14.
The sequence of negative trading activity in the quiet
access market dates back a number of years. There are
numerous examples of this activity after 2011. However
the frequency of these events in 2013 and 2014 signify a
general ramping up of activity by entities responsible for
the selling.
An example of a downtrend in silver price after the open
in US last year is provided below (figure 9). This activity
occurred on 7th June 2013 at 9.30 a.m. US East Coast
Time. The price of silver dipped from around $22.60 to
$21.90 after the open. This was significantly below close
for the previous day at $22.585, setting the tone for a
negative trading day. Market sentiment did not fully
recover as the market closed down for the day at $21.965.
Fig 9: Silver Market Eastern Time (US) ) 13/07/13
CONTINUED…
The chart below displays the price action in the spot silver bid market
in New York during a historic down day, 30th October 2014. Bid
market prices for silver discovered in New York are tracked closely
by the COMEX futures market. A downtrend for the silver price in the
access market can be clearly seen in the next chart (figure 7).
The price falls sharply by 36 cents ($16.78 - $16.52) shortly before
the open of the COMEX at 8.20 a.m. This follows a much larger sell-off
in the early hours at 2 a.m. This activity sets the tone for the day. The
market opens at $16.70 and proceeds to trade lower, closing down on
the day. Signs of a least 1 further attack on the downside are evident
later that morning. Toward the end of peak volume trading in the
morning at 11.am the price is hit hard again to the downside by a
further 30 cents ($16.55-16.35). Both the velocity and time span of
the dip appear to replicate the downtrend seen earlier in access
trading. Sentiment never fully recovers after this smash and the price
trades within a much smaller range for the rest of the day (15 cents).
Fig 7: Silver Market Eastern Time (US) 30/10/14
The next day the morning trading pattern is repeated, (see figure 8).
The downtrend in the access market is larger at 70 cents ($16.10-
$15.80). Again the price falls sharply on opening. This time the attack
is not fully successful as sentiment and the price appear to rebound
by the end of the trading day stemming losses from the historic rout
the proceeding day.
An example of a flash crash in the price of silver after close is cited above
(figure 10). This occurs at 17.30 New York Time, November 26 2012. The
price crashed from $34.10 to $31.80 in a few ticks before regaining the $34
level. Many investors in this market who still had long positions in silver
would have been stopped out at this point setting the tone for lower trading at
open in Australia and overnight in the US. This occurred during a quiet period
well after close on COMEX at 1.30pm, but during early trading in Australia
before the Asian markets open.
Fig 10. US Silver Eastern Time 26/11/2012
Despite frequent and sustained attacks to the silver price on the downside,
large buyers appear to step in to prevent the price declining a lot further. This
is another feature of the current bear market also noted by Embry “normally
when there is a price decline like we have seen on the COMEX the longs are
flushed out and the shorts reap their profits. But despite continued pressure
on the price of silver, the longs are not capitulating. If anything they are
digging in and the open interest is growing which is unheard of. Open interest
in the December 2014 trading contract, dwarfs the available inventory on the
exchange”, John Embry, CIO of Sprott Asset Management, 3rd November 2014.
Technical Trends: Historic Capitulation in Silver Futures Price
Linearanalysts note that the downtrends reported in the silver price during
early trading on the COMEX appear to form part of a broader pattern of
repression in the silver futures market this year. Investors will note that the
catalysts for repression have become more evident as the year has progressed
and show signs of acceleration from September 2014, shortly before the
Federal Reserve removed its ‘support' from the securities markets. Since
September we have seen reports of long unbroken sequences of downtrends
in the access markets, an acceleration of frequency and range of silver price
crashes and at least two historic sell off's to the same support in as many
months. Our analysts think this activity has targeted a support of $15 per
ounce which has held since March 2009. We believe a breakout below this
support would have tested the resolve of the staunchest silver longs still in the
market, with the net effect of trashing sentiment in precious metals and
freeing up silver stock which we know has been in critically short supply.
Investors will note that even the most concerted attempts to force silver
through this barrier have not succeeded this year. Each time large players
appear to step in with offers & calls in silver futures and longs in spot that
provide a support to the silver price. Meanwhile purchases of physical silver
around the world continue unabated.
Buy Silver?
In the view of Linearanalysts, shrewd investors will ignore the bad press and
the confidence tricks that have been at work in the silver market this year.
Instead they should focus on market fundamentals, as there is a clear buying
opportunity in silver right now. Silver has a number of characteristics that
should make it an attractive buy at current prices. At a substantially lower
price than gold, under $20 per ounce for most of the year, silver provides a
viable entry point into the precious metals market for many retail investors
whilst providing more bang for their buck. At a price range of $23.50 - $15.39
silver has also been trading at or below parity with production costs for the
metal for at least the last 1.5 years (05/05/13 - 27/10/14). Add to that rising
energy and labor costs, specific country challenges, social, political and
environmental realities and unique geological conditions and the capital
pressure on silver miners is immense. As a result many mining companies
have operating costs at substantially higher multiples than 5 or 6 years ago.
Silver mining companies therefore face a double whammy of downward
pressure on the market price for silver and upward pressure on costs.
One result is squeezed company margins. Linear
analysts believe this has and will continue to force many
silver mining companies to slow or freeze production,
close, or begin M&A activity with other miners, leading
to a squeeze in the supply of silver globally. This makes
silver one of the most undervalued assets in the world
today.
The fact that silver prices remain at such depressed
levels relative to gold (current price ratio 55:1) has
perplexed many in the market but has also provided an
investment opportunity. The current price ratio exceeds
the historical average of 16:1, making silver a target for
investors seeking higher premiums on the upside. This
may explain the strength of the buying we are seeing in
this market, despite brutal attacks on the downside in
silver futures and a secular bear market for the metal.
Retail investors would be wise to take their cue from the
smart money in silver right now. As data on Demand and
Use of silver illustrates, the big institutional players,
hedge funds and the large hands do not appear to be
reducing their positions in a sizeable way this year. If
anything they are consolidating their positions and
increasing their holdings at a time when the price is
being routinely smashed. Perhaps these entities know
something the market watchers don’t, hence increased
exposure to silver on the dips. For those investors who
are looking for an upside opportunity and have a
reasonable pain threshold in the short term, we suggest
you keep an eye firmly on the big picture on precious
metals.
Linear Analysts take the view that investors should be
diversifying their portfolios with physical silver. There
is a strong likelihood that current prices will not be seen
again as of next year and once a historic reversal in the
market begins the price will been taken through the $70
level, then will test $100 resistance. If that resistance
breaks our analysts are not calling the top. Should the
market turn, the move will be sudden and many
investors waiting on the sidelines may find themselves
priced out of this market entirely, particularly the
shorts. We believe the silver market is poised for a
major breakout through a resistance level known to our
analysts and a few other parties (Full analysis is made
available to Linear trading clients). From a technical
stand point the price has moved out of a breakdown and
capitulation phase that has lasted for the better part of
1.5 years finding a final bottom around $15.39 dollars.
We believe the price is now consolidating this bottom.
The question for investors is how long is this
consolidation phase and when does the reversal begin?
Many investors are unaware that a historical precedent
exists for the price movement we have seen in the silver
market this year and for what follows. The timing of this
move is readily accessible through charts and other
technical tools currently in use by some of the largest
entities in the market and investment managers with a
finger on the pulse of the silver market. Our complete
market opinion and risk analysis is available to trading clients
in our latest Quarterly Report. For further information contact
Dr Marcus Bent, Linear Investments Ltd.
Linear analysts work closely with our portfolio managers to
present clients with opportunities on an advisory & discretionary
basis. Our flagship Cassandran Hedge portfolio is uniquely
structured to take advantage of long-term emerging trends. These
are mixed with some highly active trading strategies whilst
implementing a capital protection approach in line with our
contrarian view.
Wealth
Preservation
Strategic Asset
Alocation
Tactial Asset
Allocation
CASSANDRAN HEDGE PORTFOLIO
Risk Warning
Main Office: 8-10 Grosvenor Gardens,
London, SW1W ODH
DL: +44 (0) 203 603 9833.
Email: mbent@linearinvestment.com
www.linearinvestment.com
The information given in this document is for information only and does not
constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or representation that any
investment or service is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances.
You should seek professional advice before making any investment decision. The
value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise. An
investor may not get back the amount of money invested. Past performance is not
a guide to future performance. The facts and opinions expressed are those of the
author of the document as of the date of writing and are liable to change without
notice. We do not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of
the material and do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof.
We are under no obligation to ensure that updates to the document are brought to
the attention of any recipient of this material. The report author is a fully FCA
approved person under Linear Investment Ltd. Linear Investment Ltd is a fully
FCA regulated entity. FRN: 53738.
Asset allocation is often the primary
determinant of long-term investment
performance. Our portfolio managers
allocate assets in order to spread risk
and maximise investment performance.
The portfolio allocation is designed to
facilitate capital protection. Each client
portfolio is assigned strategic and
tactical investment strategies in order to
achieve investment goals and match
risk profiles.

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Linear Note 7 Precious Metals

  • 1. dsfs 18th August 2014 CONTINUED… A combination of extreme price volatility and a secular bear market for silver, suggests investors have had a hard time positioning themselves in the metal short-midterm, exiting the market in droves in the last 3 years or so. Certainly if one were to look purely at the price action for silver in the futures and spot markets this conclusion would be difficult to argue with. Contrarian investors with a global macro view on performance of an asset class will customarily dig a bit deeper to identify levers beneath market trends before deciding whether to invest capital behind them. It should not surprise these investors that capitulation of the silver price at the start of this month entered its first phase 2 months before shortly after the Federal Reserve sent a shot across the bows to the market in Autumn. On the 19th September 2014, the day after the market digested a Fed policy release reiterating plans to end asset purchases, the silver market fell sharply from $18.43 per ounce. This gave silver investors their first taste of what was to come when the Fed ended tapering in October. The dip in the silver market followed a sell-off in gold, sinking just under 2% (60 cents) to $17.87 per ounce, the lowest since July 2010, Wall Street Journal, Tatyana Shumsky, September 18, 2014. Shrewd investors will no doubt have been watching these events with some interest, with good reason. This pattern of a price smash in the metal to 4 year lows in the aftermath of signposted Fed action, was a signal from the market, which would be repeated twice in as many months. Investors accustomed to the concept of a 'Fed Put' under the markets will no doubt have viewed September’s price volatility as a telegraph to short sellers to ready themselves for a hike in the dollar and a dip in precious metals, alerting the longs on the sidelines to steel themselves for another major buying opportunity. Those less fortunate, who may have had their fingers burned in either recent price smashes or the secular bull market in silver, the story on long plays in precious metal may be over. Open Access Market For Silver? In the notoriously volatile market for white metals, silver investors were forced to bite the bullet this year. Silver futures dropped 16% hot on the heels of a 36% decline in 2013, Bloomberg, November 19, 2014. For much of the year the price of silver has bounced around the $19 mark before breaking though this support beginning a long downtrend in September 2014. Bear Market for Silver The omens were not good for precious metals at the start of Autumn. In a single day on the 30th October gold erased all gains for 2014 falling below $1,200 per ounce whilst silver slumped to a 55 month low at around $16.30 per ounce, Bloomberg, October 30, 2014. The sell-off continued the next day with silver bottoming at $16.15. The start of this month was a particularly brutal period for those holding long positions in silver as the precious metals market suffered one of its biggest routs in over 4 years. On the 5th November 2014, ‘Silver fell as much as 5% to $15 an ounce, its weakest since February 2010,’ Reuters reported. In fact the price of silver contracts had hit a low of $15.12, Bloomberg confirmed the following day. This was a small discrepancy in the price of silver that would prove to be of much greater portent, as this analysis will illustrate later. The other white metals suffered less price volatility but significant declines. ‘Platinum fell 0.6% to $1,208.95 an ounce, close to its lowest since 2009, while palladium fell 3.5% to $756 an ounce’, Reuters, November 5, 2014. In typical fashion, the price action for the white metals mimicked and amplified the gold price which sank 1.8%, to $1,146.50 per ounce, the lowest since mid-2010. The paper sell-off in the silver market this month was a mere low water mark in a price smash of around 70% for the metal over the last 3.5 years. As Figure 1 illustrates, the silver market has provided a white knuckle ride for investors with a strong constitution in the last 15 years. Along with the spills there have been thrills. At one time trading near the $5 range (2000/04), silver made a historic move upward peaking at $49.82 on April 26 2011. This followed a 3 month rally in the price which had jumped 52% that year alone. The intraday high that April broke a nominal closing record of $48.70 which had lasted for over 30 years and which had been set in 1980, Wall Street Journal, April 26, 2011. Fig. 1: 15 year silver price. . Prepared by Dr Marcus Bent, Linear Global Wealth Y O U R E Y E O N T H E F I N A N C I A L M A R K E T S 30th November 2014 Research Note 7
  • 2. CONTINUED……… Fig 3: Silver ETF Holdings Figure 3 displays daily holdings of silver per millions ounces, for the largest participants in this sector. The ETF market is dominated by one player IShares Silver Trust (SLV). SLV came into the market in April 2006 and within less than a month increased its holdings above 100 million ounces of silver. To compound sector woes, large swathes of the business press have written off silver as a short - midterm play. In the main this view is based on assumptions about an improved outlook for the US economy and a strengthening dollar. Bloomberg’s Debarati Roy and Nicholas Larkin repeated a view prevalent in the mainstream; “a stronger economy is validating optimism, prompting the Federal Reserve to declare it will cease to buy debt, further diminishing the appeal of precious metals [as] an inflation hedge” Bloomberg, October 30th 2014. The view of the market right now seems to be that investor confidence in the metal won’t be turning corners, anytime soon. However Linear analysts take a different view. We think the fundamentals of the silver market are extremely bullish for physical silver prices in future and that other factors are underpinning the current bear market for silver. These factors suggest a major reversal in the price of silver could be imminent. Some of these factors I will now discuss. Fundamental Trends: Demand for Physical Silver Perhaps the most striking of these factors is the disconnect between the price action for silver in the futures market and underlying buying activity in the physical market. There appears to be a strange paradox at the heart of this market right now. Sustained selling of silver in the last 1.5 years and a secular bear market in the last 3.5 years suggest investors have become somewhat conditioned to weakness in the sector. In this environment experienced short traders and those who wish to limit their exposure to silver could be looking for reasons to take the market lower, compounding sector woes. However, lack of investor appetite for silver is not registering in global acquisition of physicals or open interest in silver on the COMEX futures exchange. This is borne out by figures provided by the CPM Group on Demand and Use of Silver, (see figure 2). The figures provided by the CPM have not been completed for 2014 so only show industrial demand for silver up until 2013. At present industry accounts for 50% of global demand. The chart below represents annual data on industrial demand for silver measured in millions of ounces. This clearly shows an uptrend in industrial demand from 2010 which peaked at 1000 million ounces last year. In fact industrial demand has been rising steadily since 1980. Industrial demand improves after falling by approx. 200 million ounces near the start of the financial crisis 2008-9. A resurgence in demand from industry adds a further 100 million ounces 2009-13 taking the silver price from $14 through $35. This illustrates that demand in the sector proves to be resilient after 2009 despite a major crash of investor confidence and a slump in the share price. Whilst industrial demand from traditional applications like photography, jewellery/ silverware and electronics appear to fall after 2008, new industrial uses such as for nanotech and medicine take up the slack driving demand forward. Fig 2: Industrial Demand for Silver Contrary to what one might expect, industrial demand for silver has bucked the trend towards lower silver prices from 2011. To get a better sense of the factors underpinning the price action for silver in recent years a more complete picture is required of silver demand. The remaining 50% of physical demand now comes from the investment sector. Institutional demand is therefore a good litmus test for the buoyance of appetite for silver in the physicals market in recent years. Silver is not held by central banks as currency or capital reserves. Therefore a large proportion of investment demand comes from big players like ETF’s, mutual funds, etc. Retail buyers of coins and bars also account for a fair slice of investment demand. Each of these verticals will be examined independently. The data on ETF demand for physical silver is somewhat startling. Daily data on silver holdings by ETF's indicate this type of demand has exploded since the start of the financial crisis when the ETF market for silver first established a global presence. Two charts illustrate this trend, (See figures 3 and 4). Other big operators in this market like Julius Baer, ETF-Securities, ZKB, Sprott and Deutsche Bank have mirrored the trend of aggressive expansion of silver holdings since the financial crisis. In a year where both price and demand for silver has been fairly volatile, ETF's increased their holdings, 2014. As anticipated, demand appears to pick up across the sector towards the back end of this year when prices fell to historic lows. Investors will have no doubt noted ETF holdings have not mirrored the downtrend for the silver price since 2011. In fact, like the industrial sector, ETF's have increased their holding of silver as the asset price has been smashed.
  • 3. For completeness investors should consult the chart below illustrating total silver holdings across the investment sector, i.e. ETF’s, Repositories, Mutual funds, (see figure 4). The pattern of silver acquisition by these large entities is highly revealing. Investors may for instance be surprised to learn that silver held in warehouses on the COMEX Futures Exchange have increased rather than decreased between 2011-14, contrary to the trend for silver futures prices in the period. This is a matter we will return to later. The graph indicates that demand for silver across sector is up slightly this year. Appetite for silver appears to mirror the trend in the ETF sector, i.e. volatility and an uptrend toward the back end of the year. Overall transparent silver holdings increased 80m ounces (850m– 930m), 2013 to date. Beside the general trend for explosive growth in silver holdings by most of the players in this sector since 2006, irrespective of end use of the commodity, this chart clearly shows that within a few short years demand the silver in this sector almost matches that of industry at around 930m ounce. Fig 4: Institutional Demand for Silver. The data thus far would suggest that ordinary retail investors in silver take a relatively small slice of the pie after industrial and institutional demand is satisfied. Purchase of silver coins and bars from well established mints in the most mature markets (North America, UK and Australia) should provide an indication of sentiment among ordinary investors. Sales of silver coins by the US is represented in the next graph (figure 5). The figures would suggest there has been a clear increase in appetite for American silver coins from investors in the last 10 years but particularly in the last 3-4 years. Demand remained relatively stable at 5-10m ounces per year, 1990-2007. Sales then suddenly spike 100% the following year (2008). With the exception of 2011, sales continued to rise steadily before peaking last year at around 42m ounces. Whilst figures for 2014 are not yet complete, buyer interest in silver coins looks to be resilient this year. To October 2014, approx. 36,066,000m coins were sold by the US Mint. Projected sales of American Eagle Silver coins are expected to exceed last year’s record, October 21, 2014, Smaulgold.com An increased demand for US silver coins appears to replicate the wider trend for the investment sector, (i.e. a strong uptrend from 2007/08). With silver trading at rock bottom prices, it should come as no surprise that demand for silver coins has soared. In fact 2013 was a record year for sales of silver bars and coins increasing 76% globally from 2012. Investors seem to be increasing holdings whenever there is spare supply. A number of government mints around the world reported record sales of silver bars and coins last year. Most notable were sales of American Eagle Silver Coins (42.7m), Canadian Silver Maple Leaf (28m), Australian Kookaburra (8.6m) Britannia and Sovereign (2,125,000m). In the case of the UK royal mint sales almost quadrupled from the previous reporting year (560,000). It would appear that far from being scared off by the price smash in silver, investor appetite for silver coins increased last year, outstripping even that for gold. The ratio of American Eagle Silver coin sales relative to gold equivalents last year was 100:1 (42, 653,000: 476,500 respectively). Louis Cammarosano, Smaulgold.com October 21, 2014. A surge in investor demand for coins is unlikely to distort the wholesale market for silver in any great measure due to the relatively small size of this constituent. Demand for coins could however have an outsize effect on tightening in a secondary market that has little slack as a result of increased buying from larger players as figures 2 & 4 appears to show. This possibility is of course contrary to what the price action for silver has been signaling for well over 3 years and also what many market pundits have been suggesting is happening. Up until fairly recently that is Fig 5: US Silver Coin Sales CONTINUED….. Retail investors can be forgiven for any confusion they may have about the signals being sent by the market for precious metals. The buying phenomenon described above is not widely reported in the business press and such reports tend to surface only when silver shortages reach crisis point, as was the case this year and last. Earlier this month Bloomberg was forced to acknowledged that the U.S. Mint had ran out of American Eagle Silver coins on the 5th November due to a 40% increase in demand in October 2014. Demand for these coins jumped 1.26m ounces to 5.79 million ounces, Bloomberg, November 6, 2014. The Royal Mint of Canada also needed to ration its Silver Maple Leaf coins to global distributors due to high demand this September, Reuters, November 5th, 2014. The spike in demand for silver coins in both months of course coincided with the price smash for the metal to 4 year lows in October and November. Given aggressive acquisition of silver in the ETF market from 2006, it is unsurprising that underlying buying momentum in the silver market was enough to move holdings in Exchange traded products backed by silver to record levels this October, Debarati Roy, Bloomberg, November 6, 2014.
  • 4. Fundamental Trends: Supply of Physical Silver The data on supply of silver in the last two years would suggest a squeeze may already be occurring in the physical silver market. Approximately 26,000 tons of silver are produced above ground by mining companies each year, Goldcore.com. According to the Silver Institute, supply of silver fell in 2013 on the previous year. Whilst mine production actually grew last year by 3.4 percent (819m ounces), supply from above-ground stocks dropped by 23.2 percent to 199.7m ounces. As a consequence total visible supply actually fell 2012/13 from 1,052.3 – 1,019.4 million ounces. Shrewd investors will note that total supply of physical silver therefore roughly matches total demand from industry in 2013, give or take 20 million ounces! Figure 6, represents data on Surplus v Deficits in supply of silver in 2013 (Silver Institute data). This data illustrates the trend perfectly. At this stage I will also draw investor attention to the demand data in figures 2 and 4. Taken together, demand for silver from industry and investment holdings was approx. 2000m ounces last year. This suggests a shortfall of approx. 1000m ounces of silver has to be covered to meet demand. Most of the silver needed by industry will be used for industrial applications, so manufacturers will presumably prefer to take physical delivery of this supply. Any additional demand would have to be covered by the stock of silver already in circulation. An explosion in demand for physicals since 2006 would indicate this stock is in short supply. The data suggests there is major rehypothecation of physical silver occurring in the paper market for silver in order to meet total demand from industry and investment sectors. In other words warehouses in the COMEX Futures Exchange and ETFs do not contain anywhere near sufficient silver to back paper claims for silver. This should be a major red flag for investors currently in futures contracts for silver and in ETF certificates of deposit who intend to either take physical delivery or redeem silver at some point. It is worth pointing out that the Silver Institute figures on visible supply do not include metal withdrawn from ETF’s, Futures Exchanges or from de-hedging. Over half of world’s silver is produced in 4 countries, namely Mexico, Peru, China and Australia. As we head towards what many predict is an economic slowdown in major silver producing regions of the world like Latin America, China and Russia, the stage is set for a further squeeze in the silver supply chain over the short to midterm. It is clear from the data on the fundamentals of the metal market that silver is trading at valuations far too cheap which have driven huge demand in the physical market, fuelled by artificially low prices. In the view of Linear analysts this is highly likely to increase tightening of the physicals market. Fig 6: Total Production for silver With a clearer picture of the supply and demand dynamics underpinning this market, the gyrations seen recently in the price of silver should now be more intelligible. Silver Futures Those investors that successfully sold on the dips in silver futures this Autumn, appear to have achieved the impossible. Somehow these shorts have been able to predict falling prices in a market where underlying demand for physical silver is rising and supply is tightening. The current situation would appear to not only turn the law of supply and demand on its head, but also suggest principles underpinning price discovery in a free market have altered for precious metals in the last 4-5 years. It would take a brave investor to navigate these waters and call the dips with confidence, yet information on trading activity in the silver futures market this year would suggest there are spectacularly lucky shorts out there. Either that or there is major interference happening in the silver market on a systematic basis.
  • 5. Technical Trends: Flash Crash in Silver Futures Price To illustrate this principle an analysis is needed of trading patterns in the most volatile periods in the silver market this year, (i.e. Q3-Q4). A trend that has arisen in trading in the silver futures markets this year is the phenomenon of random and brutal attacks to the downside via paper sell-off’s. Far from random occurrences, Linear analysts believe there are patterns to such events. These attacks occur in a variety of guises at times when dealing volumes are low before open and after the close of major futures exchanges in America and Europe. This can increase the build up of unsettled contracts for silver (open interest). This activity takes the form of flash crashes where the price will nosedive violently in a few tics then right itself instantaneously, naked shorts and large puts. Linear analysts are not the only market participants monitoring this trend. This phenomenon is now well documented and has been discussed by prominent technical traders in the silver market. A noted contributor to this data is John Embry, an expert on technical analysis of silver trades and a major silver dealer. He has particularly analysed trading in the electronic access markets. He has reported anomalous trading activity in this market on a number of occasions this year. By close of trading on 3rd November 2014 the silver price had for instance fallen 130 days out of the last 135 trading days in the thinly traded quiet access market, during the early hours, USA, East Coast time. As a prime example of this activity, silver fell 25 cents, or 1.5% in the quiet trading period on the 28th September, 2014, John Embry, CIO of Sprott Asset Management, 3rd November 2014. Recent examples of large downtrends in light trading in the access markets are shown in figures 7 & 8. In terms of the law of averages, the chances of this happening due to an operation of the free market are remote. Consistent downtrends in the price of silver during light trading on the COMEX (the largest futures exchange for silver in the world), should be a rare event and bears the hallmark of market manipulation. This trend is consistent with the use of high frequency and algorithm programs to short silver and depress sentiment in the market before crucial open times. The net effect will be to undermine investor confidence in the metal and set the tone for a negative trading day. Fig 8: Silver Market Eastern Time (US) 31/10/14. The sequence of negative trading activity in the quiet access market dates back a number of years. There are numerous examples of this activity after 2011. However the frequency of these events in 2013 and 2014 signify a general ramping up of activity by entities responsible for the selling. An example of a downtrend in silver price after the open in US last year is provided below (figure 9). This activity occurred on 7th June 2013 at 9.30 a.m. US East Coast Time. The price of silver dipped from around $22.60 to $21.90 after the open. This was significantly below close for the previous day at $22.585, setting the tone for a negative trading day. Market sentiment did not fully recover as the market closed down for the day at $21.965. Fig 9: Silver Market Eastern Time (US) ) 13/07/13 CONTINUED… The chart below displays the price action in the spot silver bid market in New York during a historic down day, 30th October 2014. Bid market prices for silver discovered in New York are tracked closely by the COMEX futures market. A downtrend for the silver price in the access market can be clearly seen in the next chart (figure 7). The price falls sharply by 36 cents ($16.78 - $16.52) shortly before the open of the COMEX at 8.20 a.m. This follows a much larger sell-off in the early hours at 2 a.m. This activity sets the tone for the day. The market opens at $16.70 and proceeds to trade lower, closing down on the day. Signs of a least 1 further attack on the downside are evident later that morning. Toward the end of peak volume trading in the morning at 11.am the price is hit hard again to the downside by a further 30 cents ($16.55-16.35). Both the velocity and time span of the dip appear to replicate the downtrend seen earlier in access trading. Sentiment never fully recovers after this smash and the price trades within a much smaller range for the rest of the day (15 cents). Fig 7: Silver Market Eastern Time (US) 30/10/14 The next day the morning trading pattern is repeated, (see figure 8). The downtrend in the access market is larger at 70 cents ($16.10- $15.80). Again the price falls sharply on opening. This time the attack is not fully successful as sentiment and the price appear to rebound by the end of the trading day stemming losses from the historic rout the proceeding day.
  • 6. An example of a flash crash in the price of silver after close is cited above (figure 10). This occurs at 17.30 New York Time, November 26 2012. The price crashed from $34.10 to $31.80 in a few ticks before regaining the $34 level. Many investors in this market who still had long positions in silver would have been stopped out at this point setting the tone for lower trading at open in Australia and overnight in the US. This occurred during a quiet period well after close on COMEX at 1.30pm, but during early trading in Australia before the Asian markets open. Fig 10. US Silver Eastern Time 26/11/2012 Despite frequent and sustained attacks to the silver price on the downside, large buyers appear to step in to prevent the price declining a lot further. This is another feature of the current bear market also noted by Embry “normally when there is a price decline like we have seen on the COMEX the longs are flushed out and the shorts reap their profits. But despite continued pressure on the price of silver, the longs are not capitulating. If anything they are digging in and the open interest is growing which is unheard of. Open interest in the December 2014 trading contract, dwarfs the available inventory on the exchange”, John Embry, CIO of Sprott Asset Management, 3rd November 2014. Technical Trends: Historic Capitulation in Silver Futures Price Linearanalysts note that the downtrends reported in the silver price during early trading on the COMEX appear to form part of a broader pattern of repression in the silver futures market this year. Investors will note that the catalysts for repression have become more evident as the year has progressed and show signs of acceleration from September 2014, shortly before the Federal Reserve removed its ‘support' from the securities markets. Since September we have seen reports of long unbroken sequences of downtrends in the access markets, an acceleration of frequency and range of silver price crashes and at least two historic sell off's to the same support in as many months. Our analysts think this activity has targeted a support of $15 per ounce which has held since March 2009. We believe a breakout below this support would have tested the resolve of the staunchest silver longs still in the market, with the net effect of trashing sentiment in precious metals and freeing up silver stock which we know has been in critically short supply. Investors will note that even the most concerted attempts to force silver through this barrier have not succeeded this year. Each time large players appear to step in with offers & calls in silver futures and longs in spot that provide a support to the silver price. Meanwhile purchases of physical silver around the world continue unabated. Buy Silver? In the view of Linearanalysts, shrewd investors will ignore the bad press and the confidence tricks that have been at work in the silver market this year. Instead they should focus on market fundamentals, as there is a clear buying opportunity in silver right now. Silver has a number of characteristics that should make it an attractive buy at current prices. At a substantially lower price than gold, under $20 per ounce for most of the year, silver provides a viable entry point into the precious metals market for many retail investors whilst providing more bang for their buck. At a price range of $23.50 - $15.39 silver has also been trading at or below parity with production costs for the metal for at least the last 1.5 years (05/05/13 - 27/10/14). Add to that rising energy and labor costs, specific country challenges, social, political and environmental realities and unique geological conditions and the capital pressure on silver miners is immense. As a result many mining companies have operating costs at substantially higher multiples than 5 or 6 years ago. Silver mining companies therefore face a double whammy of downward pressure on the market price for silver and upward pressure on costs. One result is squeezed company margins. Linear analysts believe this has and will continue to force many silver mining companies to slow or freeze production, close, or begin M&A activity with other miners, leading to a squeeze in the supply of silver globally. This makes silver one of the most undervalued assets in the world today. The fact that silver prices remain at such depressed levels relative to gold (current price ratio 55:1) has perplexed many in the market but has also provided an investment opportunity. The current price ratio exceeds the historical average of 16:1, making silver a target for investors seeking higher premiums on the upside. This may explain the strength of the buying we are seeing in this market, despite brutal attacks on the downside in silver futures and a secular bear market for the metal. Retail investors would be wise to take their cue from the smart money in silver right now. As data on Demand and Use of silver illustrates, the big institutional players, hedge funds and the large hands do not appear to be reducing their positions in a sizeable way this year. If anything they are consolidating their positions and increasing their holdings at a time when the price is being routinely smashed. Perhaps these entities know something the market watchers don’t, hence increased exposure to silver on the dips. For those investors who are looking for an upside opportunity and have a reasonable pain threshold in the short term, we suggest you keep an eye firmly on the big picture on precious metals. Linear Analysts take the view that investors should be diversifying their portfolios with physical silver. There is a strong likelihood that current prices will not be seen again as of next year and once a historic reversal in the market begins the price will been taken through the $70 level, then will test $100 resistance. If that resistance breaks our analysts are not calling the top. Should the market turn, the move will be sudden and many investors waiting on the sidelines may find themselves priced out of this market entirely, particularly the shorts. We believe the silver market is poised for a major breakout through a resistance level known to our analysts and a few other parties (Full analysis is made available to Linear trading clients). From a technical stand point the price has moved out of a breakdown and capitulation phase that has lasted for the better part of 1.5 years finding a final bottom around $15.39 dollars. We believe the price is now consolidating this bottom. The question for investors is how long is this consolidation phase and when does the reversal begin? Many investors are unaware that a historical precedent exists for the price movement we have seen in the silver market this year and for what follows. The timing of this move is readily accessible through charts and other technical tools currently in use by some of the largest entities in the market and investment managers with a finger on the pulse of the silver market. Our complete market opinion and risk analysis is available to trading clients in our latest Quarterly Report. For further information contact Dr Marcus Bent, Linear Investments Ltd. Linear analysts work closely with our portfolio managers to present clients with opportunities on an advisory & discretionary basis. Our flagship Cassandran Hedge portfolio is uniquely structured to take advantage of long-term emerging trends. These are mixed with some highly active trading strategies whilst implementing a capital protection approach in line with our contrarian view.
  • 7. Wealth Preservation Strategic Asset Alocation Tactial Asset Allocation CASSANDRAN HEDGE PORTFOLIO Risk Warning Main Office: 8-10 Grosvenor Gardens, London, SW1W ODH DL: +44 (0) 203 603 9833. Email: mbent@linearinvestment.com www.linearinvestment.com The information given in this document is for information only and does not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or representation that any investment or service is suitable or appropriate to your individual circumstances. You should seek professional advice before making any investment decision. The value of investments, and the income from them, can fall as well as rise. An investor may not get back the amount of money invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The facts and opinions expressed are those of the author of the document as of the date of writing and are liable to change without notice. We do not make any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the material and do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof. We are under no obligation to ensure that updates to the document are brought to the attention of any recipient of this material. The report author is a fully FCA approved person under Linear Investment Ltd. Linear Investment Ltd is a fully FCA regulated entity. FRN: 53738. Asset allocation is often the primary determinant of long-term investment performance. Our portfolio managers allocate assets in order to spread risk and maximise investment performance. The portfolio allocation is designed to facilitate capital protection. Each client portfolio is assigned strategic and tactical investment strategies in order to achieve investment goals and match risk profiles.