Prevention and early detection of Prostate Cancer: a global view Vitaly Smelov, International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), World Health Organisation (WHO)
4. WORLD POPULATION GROWTH: 9.7 BILLION BY 2050
UN, UNFPA
AVERAGE ANNUAL RATE OF POPULATION CHANGE
Higher Lower
5. PCA INCIDENCE: REGIONAL VARIATIONS & NO. OF CASES (X1,000)
25.3
400.4 / 420.0
52.0
260.3
114.7
• The incidence differs by more than
25-fold among regions
• Incidence is believed to be increased
with the scale-up use of PSA test
6. PCA MORTALITY: REGIONAL VARIATIONS & NO. OF DEATHS (X1,000)
48.7
37.8
92.3 / 101.4
15.9
• Mortality mainly affects
less developed countries (accessibility)
• Also, race and diet habits are among
speculated risk factors for geographic diversity
7. TOTAL EXPENDITURE ON HEALTH (% GDP, 2014) & PCA SCREENING
WHO National Health Accounts database, 2011
COUNTRIES WITH REPORTED PCA SCREENING TRIALS AND PROGRAMS
*
*
• PLCO - the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial;
• ERSPC - the European Randomized Study of Screening in Prostate Cancer;
• PCa screening trials;
• National PCa screening program
*
**
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
10. HICS VS LMICS SITUATION DIFFERS BUT IT IS A GLOBAL PROBLEM
High-income countries (HICs):
• Incidence is very high (problems with detecting too many cases)
- lack of standardized screening protocol
• But the extended treatment facilities allow to increase survival rates
• Decision-making responsibility lies on clinician
Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs):
• Incidence is less than in HICs but will increase (population growth, aging, migration
patterns, life style changes)
• Will we have a future epidemic?
• Current mortality is close to incidence (problems with treatment)
- limited facilities and skilled personnel
11. PRIMARY PCA PREVENTION
Adapted from: dos Santos Silva; Cancer Epidemiology: Principles and Methods, 1999
Aims to prevent the onset of disease:
• i) by reducing exposure to risk factors, ii) or increasing men resistance to them
? • Risk factors unknown or unclear
• Possible role of diet habits?
• (Co-)role of infections?
• Life style?
• Preventive measures unknown
“No definitive recommendation can
be provided for specific preventive
or dietary measures to reduce the
risk of developing PCa” (EAU)
?
?
12. SECONDARY PCA PREVENTION
Adapted from: dos Santos Silva; Cancer Epidemiology: Principles and Methods, 1999
?
?
Aims to reduce mortality from PCa through early detection (2 approaches) and
treatment. Mainly based on screening programs: Opportunistic vs Organised
• Symptoms?
PCa is mostly asymptomatic
• No reliable enough test(s)
• Triage test: biopsy to be replaced
• Screening:
Opportunistic vs organized?
Quality and costs?
• Resources?
• Strategies for LMICs?
Screening:
before symptoms
appear by applying
a test to healthy
populations
Early diagnosis:
through the very
first symptoms in
patients
13. PSA-BASED PCA SCREENING: CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
30 40 50 60 70 80 90Age, years:
USPST (2012)
ACP (2013)
AUA (2013)
EAU (2013, 2016)
Footnote: EAU - European Association of Urology, AUA - American Urological Association, USPST - U.S. Preventive
Services Task Force, ACP - American College of Physicians, ACS – American Cancer Society
All ages: Against PSA screening
>70 years:
Against PSA screening
<50 years:
Against PSA screening
>70 years or living <10-15 years:
Against PSA screening
<40 years:
Against PSA screening
40-54 years:
No routine
40-45
years:
Baseline
No age limit,
Life exp. >10
years
PSA>1 ng/ml: screening every 2-4 years
PSA<1 ng/ml: screening up to 8 years
55-69 years:
Decision-making
USPST (2017) Against PSA screening
55-69 years:
Informing men Against PSA screening
ACS (2010) Against routine PSA
screening
Against routine PSA
screening
40-54 years:
Clinical decision making, PSA>2.5 ng/ml - annually
• 2017: PSA-screening may reduce mortality by 30% (ERSPC and PLCO)
• PSA-based screening remains controversial: The interval of PSA cut-off varies.
• The final decision depends on the clinician. Also in less-developed countries
50-69 years:
Decision-making
PSA>2.5-6.5 ng/ml
14. PSA-BASED PCA SCREENING: SITUATION IN COUNTRIES
• It may be feasible to establish a PSA-based screening program
• Down-staging and reduction in 1 year mortality after diagnosis
• A PSA screening round: over-diagnosis over-treatment? men’s QoL??
• It needs proper QA and sustainability
Ishkinin et al, Iran J Public Health 2017
Distribution by ages of newly
diagnosis PCa in 2014-2015:
Distribution by stages of newly
diagnosis PCa (%) in 2001-2015:
Incidence = 8.57 and Mortality = 14.94 (per 100,000); M/I = 57% (2012)
15. TERTIARY PCA PREVENTION
Adapted from: dos Santos Silva; Cancer Epidemiology: Principles and Methods, 1999
?
?
Aims to improve prognosis and quality of life (QoL) of the affected men by offering
the best available treatment and rehabilitation
• Accessibility??
• Who is paying: Public or Private funding?
• Different strategies for different countries?
• Strategies for LMICs??
• Current inequality in survival
16. • The knowledge on PCa risk factors is insufficient
• Specific preventive measures are lacking
• Current early detection suffers from the lack of accurate screening tests
• Over-diagnosis over-treatment QoL increased public health costs
UNANSWERED QUESTIONS
17. • Further search for risk factors and potential preventive measures
• Better understanding the rationale for geographic and population differences
• Development of risk prediction tools, including individual-risk based
• Evaluating novel reliable and less costly biomarkers (e.g., urine-based)
• Improve treatment facilities
- develop treatment schemes suitable for different settings
• Promote evidence-based decision towards PCa prevention
(burden of diseases, cost-effectiveness of prevention strategies)
• Ensure adherence to treatment protocols by patients and clinicians
• Propose preventive strategies for low- and middle-income countries
PCA PREVENTION FUTURE RESEARCH
18. • PCa is a global health problem
• The European region and the EU have the knowledge and expertise to
contribute to decrease PCa burden worldwide
• Worldwide, patients will benefit from strengthening scientific collaboration
• Multidisciplinary Meeting on Prostate Cancer Research in IARC, 2018:
- to proper discuss research agenda on PCa prevention, screening
and early detection and brainstorm on strategies for LMICs
GLOBAL PCA AGENDA