This document summarizes scenarios for future CO2 emissions from land transport in India between 2010 and 2030. It outlines five scenarios: business as usual, energy efficiency, clean two and three wheelers, sustainable cities/urban transport, and an extra effort scenario combining elements of the energy efficiency and sustainable cities scenarios. The scenarios illustrate potential vehicle growth, fuel use, and CO2 emissions under different policy assumptions around urban planning, fuel efficiency standards, and modal shifts towards public transit and smaller vehicles. The analysis highlights major data limitations and the importance of implementing aggressive transport and urban planning policies to avoid undesirable increases in fuel use and emissions as motorization continues in India.

1. CO2 Emissions from Land Transport in India Scenarios of the Uncertain Lee Schipper, Ph.D. Global Metro Studies, UC Berkeley Precourt Institute, Stanford University with Ipsita Banerjee Dept of Civil Engineering Wei-Shiuen Ng Consultant Sponsored by the Japan International Transport Institute

3. SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

4. Transport in India?

5. Asia: lumbering into modernity SCHIPPER ADB June 2008

6. Cheap Two Wheelers, but No Sidewalks The Peoples’ Car: Which People?

10. BASIS OF APPROACH The ASIF Decomposition for Fuel and Emissions http://www.iea.org/textbase/nppdf/free/2000/flex2000.pdf Key Data Work by S. Menon, then World Bank

21. Basic Driving Factors: GDP, Population

22. Vehicles Per Thousand People by Type

23. Per Capita Travel by Transport Mode Passenger-km per capita

24. Fuel Economy in BAU and EE Scenarios (1 mj/veh-km = 3.15 l/100 km = 80 gm/km)

25. Fuel Use By Mode and Fuel ( 1 EJ = 22.5 mtoe )

26. Total Fuel Use By Mode

27. Per Capita Fuel Use by Transport Mode (US 50 GJ; EU GJ/cap )

28. India: CO 2 Emissions by Transport Mode

34. Thank You Lee Schipper [email_address] [email_address]