The Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA), together with the Ministry of Electricity and Energy of the Union of Myanmar, launched Myanmar National Energy Statistics 2019 in Nay Pyi Taw on 11 March 2019. in his presentation, Mr Shigeru Kimura, ERIA’s Special Adviser to the President on Energy Affairs, discussed the basic concept of energy balance tables, analysis of the energy demand supply situation in Myanmar, as well as the key findings and policy implications of the study.

1. Analysis of Energy Demand
Supply Situation in Myanmar
Special Adviser to the President on Energy Affairs
Mr. Shigeru Kimura
Launching Ceremony and Workshop on 1st Myanmar Energy Statistics
11th March 2019
Park Royal Hotel, NayPyiTaw, Myanmar

2. Contents
• Basic Concept of Energy Balance Tables
• Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation in
Myanmar
• Key Findings and Policy Implications
• Conclusion

3. Energy Balance Table
• Primary Energy Statistics
– Coal: Production, import/export and consumption data (ton)
– Crude oil: Production, export and refining (ton)
– Petroleum products: Import, refining and sales data (ton)
– Gas: Production, export and consumption (m3)
– Electricity: Supply to demand data (watt hour)
– Renewable: Supply to demand data (ton, cubic ton, watt hour)
• Demerits of Primary Energy Statistics
– Different unit does not allow us to compare volume of each energy
– Different unit does not allow us to calculate total energy consumption
at country level
• Need of Secondary Energy Statistics such as Energy Balance Table

4. Energy Balance Table
• Energy Balance Table (EBT)
– Unit is thermal quantity
• Calorie, joule, BTU (British thermal unit)
• Toe (ton oil equivalent), Tce (ton coal equivalent)
TJ Gcal Mtoe MBtu
TJ 1 2.388x102 2.388x10-5 9.478x102
Gcal 4.187x10-3 1 1.000x10-7 3.968
Mtoe 4.187x104 1.000x107 1 3.986x107
MBtu 1.055x10-3 2.520x10-1 2.520x10-8 1
General Conversion Factors for Energy
Source: IEA

5. Energy Balance Table
• Energy Balance Table (EBT)
– Thermal conversion factor (NCV)
• Coal: thermal conversion factors depend on kinds of coal
(low rank to high rank)
– Ex: Sub-bituminous 0.4513 toe/ton, lignite 0.2842 toe/ton
• Crude oil: 1.0101 toe/ton
• Petroleum products: Gasoline 1.0579 toe/ton, diesel 1.0268
toe/ton
• Gas:0.9600 toe/1000 c3
• Electricity: 0.086 toe/MWh
• Renewable (biomass): Firewood 0.3725 toe/ton, charcoal
0.7045 toe/ton
– 1 toe = 107 kcal = 41.868 G-joules

6. Energy Balance Tables
6
1) Heat Value: Net calorific value
 Gross calorific value (GCV) vs net calorific value (NCV)
 Difference between NCV and GCV: 5% for coal & oil and 10% for gas
2) Thermal Efficiency of Primary Electricity
 Hydro power: 100%
 Nuclear power: 33%
 Geothermal power:10%
 Solar, Wind, Tide power: 100%
3) Bunker oil
 International marine bunker
 Domestic vessels and international vessels
 Fuel consumption by domestic vessels is accounted for Myanmar energy balance
table as final consumption
 International aviation bunker
 Domestic flights and international flights
 Fuel consumption by domestic flights is accounted for Myanmar energy balance
table as final consumption

7. Energy Balance Table
• EBT Production Flow
Primary Energy Statistic:
Coal, Petroleum Products, Electricity, Biomass
OGPD: Hub to collect all energy data
from other agencies and offices
Energy Balance
Tables
Standard
Methodology
Thermal
Conversion
Factors

8. Energy Balance Table
• Structure
– Flows
• Primary energy supply sector
– Indigenous production (+)
– Import (+) /export (-)
– International marine/aviation bunkers (-)
– Stock change (+): defined as opening – closing
– Total primary energy supply
• Transformation/Energy sector
– Refinery: Input crude oil (-) and output petroleum products (+)
– Power generation: Input fuel (-) and output electricity (+)
• Final consumption sector (activity basis)
– Industry: production activities (manufacturing, mining and construction)
– Transport: moving activities (road, rail, air and inland waterways)
– Others: commercial (building), residential, agriculture, forestry, fishery, etc
– Total final energy consumption
• Non-energy use
– Fuel consumption but not combustion such as lubricant and feedstocks

9. Energy Balance Table
• Structure
– Products
• Coal & coal products
• Crude oil and NGL
• Petroleum products
• Gas
• Hydro, nuclear and geothermal
• Solar, wind, tide and biomass
• Electricity
• Heat
• Total
– Classification of products
• Primary energy
– Coal, crude oil & NGL, gas, hydro, nuclear, geothermal, renewable energy
• Secondary energy
– Coal products, petroleum products, electricity, heat

10. 10
Myanmar Energy Balance Table in 2016 (Unit: ktoe)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
Coal Coal ProductsCrude Oil & NGLPetroleum ProductsGas Hydro Nuclear Geothermal, Solar etc.Others Electricity Heat Total
1. Indigenous Production 209 607 11 16,466 1,043 1 9,069 27,406
2. Imports 208 3,966 4,174
3. Exports -4 -146 -173 -12,834 -205 -13,361
4. International Marine Bunkers -1 -1
13.1 International Aviation Bunkers -89 -89
5. Stock Changes 0 357 -1 355
6. Total Primary Energy Supply 414 461 4,070 3,631 1,043 1 9,069 -205 18,484
7. Transfers
8. Total Transformation Sector -7 2 -418 400 -2,747 -1,043 -1 -141 1,742 -2,213
8.1 Main Activity Producer -5 -19 -2,730 -1,043 -1 1,742 -2,056
8.2 Autoproducers
8.3 Gas Processing -17 -17
8.4 Refineries -418 419 0
8.5 Coal Transformation -2 2 0
8.6 Petrochemical Industry
8.7 Biofuel Processing
8.8 Charcoal Processing -141 -141
8.9 Other Transformation
9. Loss & Own Use -5 -431 -216 -652
10. Discrepancy 0 -43 -261 -23 0 -327

11. 11
Myanmar Energy Balance Table in 2016
(Unit: ktoe)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
Coal Coal ProductsCrude Oil & NGLPetroleum ProductsGas Hydro Nuclear Geothermal, Solar etc.Others Electricity Heat Total
11. Total Final Energy Consumptions 407 2 4,204 430 8,928 1,321 15,292
12. Industry Sector 407 2,037 265 2,633 400 5,743
12.1 Iron and Steel 37 7 44
12.2 Chemical (incl. Petro-Chemical) 117 117
12.3 Non Ferrous Metals 2 2
12.4 Non Metallic Mineral Products 123 119 242
12.5 Transportation Equipment 0 0
12.6 Machinery 5 5
12.7 Mining and Quarrying
12.8 Food, Beverages and Tobacco 6 6
12.9 Pulp, Paper and Printing 0 0
12.10 Wood and Wood Products
12.11 Construction 215 215
12.12 Textiles and Leather 8 8
12.13 Other Industry 247 1,823 2 2,633 400 5,104
13. Transport Sector 2,065 164 2,230
13.2 Domestic Air Transport 128 128
13.3 Road 1,902 164 2,066
13.4 Rail 36 36
13.5 Inland Waterways
13.6 Pipeline Transport
13.7 Other Transport
14. Other Sector 2 102 0 6,294 921 7,320
14.1 Residential & Commercial 2 70 0 6,294 911 7,278
14.1.1 Commerce and Public Services 34 0 2,633 260 2,928
14.1.2 Residential 2 35 3,661 651 4,350
14.2 Agriculture
14.3 Fishing
14.4 Others 32 10 42
15. of which Non-Energy Use 424 105 529
16 Electricity Output in GWh 10 61 8,052 12,125 0 9 0 20,258

12. Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation
• Final Energy Consumption
Total final energy consumption increased 3.2% P.A. from 2000 to 2016. Coal marked highest
growth rate at 12.8% in the same period, followed by electricity (10.2%), petroleum
products (6.2%) and biomass (1.7%). Consequently biomass share surely declined from 75%
to 58%. On the other hand, electricity share increased from 3% to 9%. Petroleum products
kept 2nd largest share of TFEC and it share increased from 17% in 2000 to 27% in 2016.
9,184 8,837
9,356 9,601 9,602
9,767
10,464 10,870
10,912
10,822
12,458
13,111
12,885
13,061
14,774
15,597 15,292
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
ktoe
Coal Petroleum Products Gas Biomass Electricity TFEC
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Coal PetroleumProducts Gas Biomass Electricity

13. 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Total
Coal
Petroleum Products
Gas
Electricity
Biomass
TFEC's increment by Energy (2000-2016)
Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation
• Final Energy Consumption
Most increased energy in 2010-2016 was petroleum products at 2,605 ktoe and followed
by biomass (2,082 ktoe), electricity (1,040 ktoe) and coal (349 ktoe). Looking at sectors,
share of industry sector still marked dominant in 2016 followed by residential,
commercial and transport sector.
ktoe
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Industry Transport Service Residential Others

14. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2005 2010 2016
Increaseof each PetroleumProduct
Gasoline Jet Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil
LPG Other Total
Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation
• Petroleum Products (Import)
Looking at each petroleum products, gasoline rapidly increased about 4 times from
2000 to 2016, followed by jet fuel, LPG and diesel oil. Growth of gasoline, jet fuel and
LPG was much higher than total petroleum product. But a major petroleum product
should be diesel oil (its hare was 51% in 2016), followed by gasoline and other
petroleum products which consist of lubricants mainly.
2000=100
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2016
Shareof PetroleumProducts
Gasoline Jet Fuel Diesel Oil Fuel Oil LPG Other

15. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Power Generation by Sources
Hydro Coal Oil Gas Others
Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation
• Power Generation
Major power generation source in Myanmar is hydro power, followed by gas power. Share of both
power plants was almost 100% except year 2004-2012 due to coal power generation. But their
thermal efficiencies were quite low (15-35%). Installation of CCGT and CCT will be one of options to
improve the thermal efficiencies. CCGT has another effect to save gas consumption for power
generation and allocate the saved gas to export.
GWh
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Thermal Efficiency
GPP CPP

16. 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Total Primary Energy Supply
Coal Oil Gas Hydro Biomass Net Trade of Electricity
Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation
• Primary Energy Supply
Primary energy supply defines as energy requirement of Myanmar. Myanmar still
depended on biomass even in 2016, followed by oil and gas. But coal and hydropower
marked highest growth rates (12% P.A). Consequently biomass share declined from
68% to 49% from 2000 to 2016. On the other hand, gas increased from 13% to 20% as
well as petroleum products from 17% to 25% in the same period.
ktoe
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Energy Shareof TPES
Coal Oil Gas Hydro Biomass Net Trade of Electricity

17. -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Biomass
Net Trade
Total
TPES Incrementby Energy in 2000-2016
Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation
• Primary Energy Supply
Oil marked highest growth at 2,739 ktoe from 2010 to 2016, followed by gas 2,282, biomass 2,081 and
coal 354. Import dependency defined as import energy / TPES, which consists of petroleum products and
coal showed down uptrend in 2000-2009 but it went up highly in 2010-2016. It seems to be related with
increase of foreign investment due to the political change.
2010=100
ktoe
10.2
6.9
5.2
3.6 3.4
3.9 3.9 4.2
3.4
2.3
7.0 6.7
6.2
7.9
11.9
15.0
13.1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
%

18. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
Shareof FossilFuels to TPES
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Relation between TPES and CO2
TPES CO2
Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation
• CO2 Emissions
CO2 emissions increased following to growth of TPES from 2000 to
2016 but after 2015, increase of CO2 emissions were higher than
TPES due to increase of fossil fuel consumption in across the
sectors. Looking at CO2/TPES which shows CO2 weight per energy
consumption, it showed similar trend of CO2 emissions. CO2
emissions come from fossil fuel, then share of fossil fuel is checked.
Its share has been increasing year by year and it reached to more
than 45% in 2015.
%
Ktoe,ktCO2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
CO2/TPES

19. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Comparison of TPES, CO2, GDP and Population
TPES CO2 GDP Population
Analysis of Energy Demand Supply Situation
• Energy Indicators
Energy consumption increased gradually not same as GDP in 2000-2016 but CO2 emissions jumped up in 2015 due to
different energy mix compared to 2014. The intensities such as TEPS/GDP and CO2/GDP were improved from 2000 to
2009 but they showed almost flat after 2010. On the other hand, TPES/capita and CO2 /capita increased gradually.
Looking at the elasticity defined as growth rate of TPES / growth rate of GDP, it was lower than 1 in 2000-2016. But it
became bigger year by year and it almost reached to 0.6 in 2010-2016. Biomass surely contributed why the elasticity
was less than 1.
2000=100
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016
Major Energy Indicators
TPES/GDP (toe/thousand $) TPES/POP (toe/person)
CO2/GDP(tCO2/thousand $) CO2/POP(tCO2/person)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2016
Elasticity

20. Key Findings and Policy Implications
• Key Findings
– Total final energy consumption increased around 3.2% P.A in last
16 years and the elasticity was 0.32 in the same time.
– Myanmar largely depends on biomass and petroleum products
in final consumption sector but electricity grew rapidly around
10% P.A. and it consumed across the sectors except transport
sector.
– By sector, industry sector marked highest share (37% in 2016),
followed by residential (28%) and commercial (19%).
– For looking each petroleum product, all petroleum products
showed uptrend but gasoline marked significant increase (less
than 4 times) from 2000 to 2016. In term of share, diesel oil
reached 51% in 2016, followed by gasoline.

21. Key Findings and Policy Implications
• Key Findings
– Hydro and gas power generations have been major sources in
Myanmar and the generated electricity has been consumed across the
sectors. From 2013, Myanmar started electricity export to neighboring
countries.
– Share of gas power generation in 2016 was 40% and on the other
hand, hydro power was 60%.
– At primary energy supply level, biomass is still most dominant energy
in Myanmar, followed by petroleum products and gas.
– Import dependency of energy in Myanmar, however, gradually went
up after 2010 and it was still around 13% in 2016.
– CO2 emissions gradually increased same as TPES. In 2015, CO2 jumped
up due to increase of fossil fuels.

22. Key Findings and Policy Implications
• Key Findings
– Energy intensity was improved from 2000 to 2009
but after 2009, it was almost flat.
– Energy elasticity was lower than 1.0 from 2000
top 2016. But it increased year by year due to
significant increase of electricity, petroleum
products and gas in the same time.

23. Key Findings and Policy Implications
• Policy Implications
– Myanmar has huge potential to shift from biomass to conventional energy
such as petroleum products and electricity due to its high economic
growth perspective reported by regional and international economic
organization such as IMF.
– Myanmar has also large potential on energy demand in industry sector
due to its industrialization planning. Manufacturing sector will need more
electricity, petroleum products and gas.
– Petroleum products will depend import continuously and it brings two
issues in Myanmar; a. vulnerable oil supply, b. outflow of national wealth.
– Consequently following policy implications are recommended;
• Promotion of energy efficiency to across all the final sectors
• Development of domestic energy such as natural gas and hydro power generation
• Hydro and biomass power generation will also contribute to lower carbon emissions
• Pay attention to oil supply security such as; a. stockpiling, b. emergency response and
preparedness, c. formulate NESO (National Emergency Strategy Organization)

24. Conclusion
• Continuation of Energy Statistics
– The 1st Myanmar National Energy Statistics 2019 has released today
and 2nd Myanmar Energy Statistics should be released late this year
continuously by OGPD, MOEE itself.
• Better data Better decision
– On the other hand, quality of Myanmar National Energy Statistics
especially primary energy data, will be improved through enhancing
energy data collection both supply and demand sides.
• Human Resources
– Professional energy statisticians will be needed. Capacity building
trainings on energy statistics to be conducted by international
organizations and OECD countries are good opportunities for staff of
OGPD, MOEE to increase their capacity on energy statistics.
• Network of inter-Ministries
– Collaborative network among Ministries in Myanmar is recommended
to set up. The network talks and shares energy data as well as energy
related data among the Ministries. The network surely contributes to
produce energy efficiency indicators.

25. Thank you for your attention!
25