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Climate Change:  Financing Global Forests Graham Floater www.occ.gov.uk
The Eliasch Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Emissions from forests are significant... Global GHG emissions by sector Sources: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007), IPCC GHG inventory (2007) and IEA World Energy Outlook (2007)
The main economic drivers of deforestation stem from agricultural and timber production ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources (all commissioned for Eliasch Review): Obersteiner 2008, Sathaye 2008, Grieg-Grann 2008, GLOCAF 2008 Drivers Models commissioned for the Eliasch Review estimated the opportunity cost at $17-33bn per year. Costs
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],A step change in how land is used and commodities produced Forests more valuable standing than cut The vision: what needs to be done...
Getting there will involve overcoming some challenging obstacles... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Price of products from deforested land
Delivering the vision... How do we deliver this? The benefits A step change in how land is used and commodities produced  Forests more valuable standing than cut Carbon  finance Consumer awareness & regulation Policy incentives in forest nations Poverty reduction Protection of biodiversity & water systems Substantial emissions reductions Lower costs of tackling climate change
How much could it cost? ,[object Object],[object Object],Sources: Grieg-Gran (2008); Sathaye et al (2008); Gusti et al (2008); and Kindermann et al (2008) Marginal abatement cost curve
However the benefits of taking action far outweigh the costs... Effects of deforestation on climate change could lead to additional global damages of $1 trillion a year by 2100 Sources: Hope (2008); Hope and Castilla-Rubio (2008) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
In the long term, the forest sector should form part of a global cap and trade system  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Sources: Modelling for the Eliasch Review
In the transition, four building blocks will be essential to access carbon finance... 1. Effective  targets National baselines, inclusive of all countries 2. Robust measuring Forest credits based on real reductions in forest emissions 3. Linking to carbon finance Carbon markets and other funding initiatives 4. Good governance International standards and full participation of forest communities
1. Effective targets  should minimise leakage and maximise additionality National level Inclusive Additional ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],To reduce international leakage, targets should incentivise both high and low deforesting nations Should also be simple & transparent ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
2. Robust measuring and monitoring  can be achieved with capacity building Measurement of forest emissions has been more variable than fossil fuel emissions in the past ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Increasing   accuracy Sources: Monni et al, 2007;  3 Brown et al 2000, Chave et al 2005, Brown et al 2008; work commissioned for the Eliasch Review from Hardcastle et al, 2008. Images: ESA and Forestry Commission (2008)
3. Linking to carbon markets  can leverage substantial funds... Cap and trade systems Forestry recognised Rules for trading EU  ETS Not yet  Domestic and international forestry credits also excluded – current EU proposal ambivalent. US – Waxman Markey Yes Domestic forestry included in trading. International forest credits included.  New Zealand Yes Domestic forest sector fully included in trading. Anticipates access for international forest credits.  Australia  (New South Wales) Yes Includes domestic sequestration credits.  Anticipates access for international forest credits.
...however, carbon market finance alone will not be sufficient in the medium term Global cap  and trade 2030 target:  carbon market finance could make the sector carbon neutral Funds from partial access to carbon markets Funding gap:  $11-19 billion per year in 2020 2020 projection:  carbon market finance could be $7 billion per year and fund a 22% cut in deforestation emissions Source: Modelling for the Eliasch Review Short term Medium term Long term Funding 2012
4. Good governance  will be needed if reduced deforestation is to succeed Risks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Success is achievable with the right political will and resources Good Governance ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Immediate action: mobilising international  funds for capacity building Investment in early action  Policy   reforms Research & analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Capacity-building costs estimated at up to $4 billion over 5 years Source: Hoare et al (2008) for the Eliasch Review UNREDD FIP FCPF carbon fund Mechanisms proposed
International coordination will be needed if support is to be efficient and effective...
Key recommendations of the Review ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Supplementary analysis – impact of forest credits on the carbon price ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The stringency of emissions targets Supplementarity limits ...and the relative cost of supplying other credits The cost of supplying forest credits... Source: Modelling for the Eliasch Review
Supplementary analysis – distribution of finance within forest nations regions/ provinces National registry International forestry credits All units registered nationally to avoid ‘double counting’ State can opt to invest directly and keep the credits centrally... …or devolve credits to regional level …or allow investors and communities to certify projects and receive credits in return national  fund

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Financing the World's Forests: integrating markets and stakeholders

  • 1. Climate Change: Financing Global Forests Graham Floater www.occ.gov.uk
  • 2.
  • 3. Emissions from forests are significant... Global GHG emissions by sector Sources: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007), IPCC GHG inventory (2007) and IEA World Energy Outlook (2007)
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. Delivering the vision... How do we deliver this? The benefits A step change in how land is used and commodities produced Forests more valuable standing than cut Carbon finance Consumer awareness & regulation Policy incentives in forest nations Poverty reduction Protection of biodiversity & water systems Substantial emissions reductions Lower costs of tackling climate change
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11. In the transition, four building blocks will be essential to access carbon finance... 1. Effective targets National baselines, inclusive of all countries 2. Robust measuring Forest credits based on real reductions in forest emissions 3. Linking to carbon finance Carbon markets and other funding initiatives 4. Good governance International standards and full participation of forest communities
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. 3. Linking to carbon markets can leverage substantial funds... Cap and trade systems Forestry recognised Rules for trading EU ETS Not yet Domestic and international forestry credits also excluded – current EU proposal ambivalent. US – Waxman Markey Yes Domestic forestry included in trading. International forest credits included. New Zealand Yes Domestic forest sector fully included in trading. Anticipates access for international forest credits. Australia (New South Wales) Yes Includes domestic sequestration credits. Anticipates access for international forest credits.
  • 15. ...however, carbon market finance alone will not be sufficient in the medium term Global cap and trade 2030 target: carbon market finance could make the sector carbon neutral Funds from partial access to carbon markets Funding gap: $11-19 billion per year in 2020 2020 projection: carbon market finance could be $7 billion per year and fund a 22% cut in deforestation emissions Source: Modelling for the Eliasch Review Short term Medium term Long term Funding 2012
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.
  • 19. International coordination will be needed if support is to be efficient and effective...
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. Supplementary analysis – distribution of finance within forest nations regions/ provinces National registry International forestry credits All units registered nationally to avoid ‘double counting’ State can opt to invest directly and keep the credits centrally... …or devolve credits to regional level …or allow investors and communities to certify projects and receive credits in return national fund

Notes de l'éditeur

  1. Every year, the world loses an area of forest the size of England
  2. Every year, the world loses an area of forest the size of England
  3. What was the consensus on modelling results from the Washington conference? Ask Bernardo Why is deforestation rate decreasing?? Because modelled on Houghton? Isn’t rate increasing under Met Office predictions?