The document discusses 3 megatrends - the second machine age, (re)urbanization, and demographic change - that will impact how organizations operate in the future. It also examines trends in the market for skilled knowledge workers and outlines two potential scenarios for future organizational designs: "Fluid Organizations" characterized by independent project workers and continual change, and "Caring Companies" focused on retaining talent through benefits and a strong company culture. The kind of leadership required in fluid organizations is also discussed, noting it must facilitate innovation, develop people, and guide change in a subtle way.

1. The Manager of the Future
Interactive session at
ESMT’s Annual Forum 2014
Dr. Kirsten B. Fischer
ESMT Campus Berlin, July 3, 2014

2. #esmt2050
3 Megatrends have impact on the way enterprises are operating in the future
7/3/2014 Dr. Kirsten B. Fischer 1
2nd
machine age*
- Moore‘s Law
- Digitization
- Innovation
(Re-)
Urbanization**
- Mobility
- Health/ Infrastructure
- Community Services
Demographic
Change
- Smart seniors
- Young job nomads
Sources:
* Brynjolfsson, E./McAffee, A (2014): The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of
Brilliant Technologies, W.W. Norton & Company
** UNO Report on urban concentrations 2007, Illustration of The Guardian
Trendspot #57, Zukunftsinstitut, Frankfurt

3. #esmt2050
Trends on the market for skilled knowledge workers
7/3/2014 Dr. Kirsten B. Fischer 2
maintain
innovative capability for
quick market response:
mix of fluid & cristalline
intelligence
market structure
changes towards a
demand market:
shift of negotiation
power from employer
to employee
new criteria of job
attractiveness:
1. personal challenge
2. purposeful tasks
3. excellent colleagues
life expectancy of 90+:
abundancy of „smart
seniors“ willing to work
part-time beyond their
60s
universal availability of
ICT leads to
„dematerialized“ office
work
new work relations:
1. share of permanent
contracts drops from
80% to 30-40%
2. number of
independent persons/
„e-lancers“ rises
Sources:
Malone, T.W./Laubacher, R.J.,
(1998): The dawn of the E-
Lance Economy, HBR, Vol.76,
No.5, pp.145-153
Jánszky, S.G./Abicht, L.
(2013): 2025 So arbeiten wir
in der Zukunft, Berlin/Wien,
Goldegg Verlag

4. #esmt2050
Two likely scenarios of future organizational designs
7/3/2014 Dr. Kirsten B. Fischer 3
Fluid Organi-
zations**
objective:
attract the best, foster
„best ideas“ & innovation
small team of admin staff;
specialized independent
project workers
change as a rule:
permanent onboarding
& release of personnel
„crowd“ recruiting based
on web portals & recom-
mendation by others
heterarchy***: neither
network nor hierarchy
Caring
Companies*
objective:
retain valuable talents
„corporate life“ culture:
(family) values, loyalty
sabbaticals, lifetime
working time accounts,
flextime, lifelong L&D
support re: child care,
care for the elderly,
finance, housing etc.
Sources:
* Spath, D. (Hg.2012): Arbeitswelten 4.0, Stuttgart, Fraunhofer Verlag
** Kakihara, M. (2004): The rise of the fluid organization?
Jánszky, S.G./Abicht, L. (2013): 2025 So arbeiten wir in der Zukunft,
Berlin/Wien, Goldegg Verlag
*** Stephenson, K. (2009): Neither Hierarchy nor Network: An Argument for
Heterarchy

5. #esmt2050
What kind of leadership is required in a fluid organization?
7/3/2014 Dr. Kirsten B. Fischer 4
facilitator
innovation
coordinator
people
developer
change
officer
scout/developer
of competencies
…
…
…
lead in a subtle,
almost invisible way
provide counselencourage people
offer experience/
insight (not imposed)
eliminate organizational/
cultural barriers
provide recognition &
reward
Roles
Styles

6. #esmt2050
7/3/2014 Dr. Kirsten B. Fischer 5
Thank you!
Dr. Kirsten B. Fischer
Head of Open Program
Counseling
Head of Business
Development DACH
kirsten.fischer@esmt.org
+49 2235 406-240
ESMT
European School of Management
and Technology
Campus Berlin
Schlossplatz 1
10178 Berlin
Campus Schloss Gracht
Fritz-Erler-Str. 1
50374 Erftstadt
kirsten.fischer@esmt.org
www.esmt.org/executive-education