Finding opportunities in the midst of Mayhem. Stephen Kells, Producer/Grain Market Analyst

1. Finding Marketing Opportunities
Stephen Kell
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2. Comparing US Corn To Prior Years

3. Where Is The US Corn?

4. American Corn Production

5. Ontario Corn Production
Crop Unit Nov.2019 Change
From Last
Year
Corn
Harvested Mil. acres 1.8 -6%
Yield Bu/ac 155 -28
Production Million MT 7.09 -1.78

6. The “Shape” of the Corn Market

7. The “Shape” of the Corn Market

8. The “Shape” of the Corn Market

9. What’s Going To Drive ‘20 Corn Markets?
 The current estimates for 2020 corn production in the US are the
biggest since 2016. (94.1 million acres)
 Corn futures are likely to trade the expectation of a big corn crop
in the year ahead until, (or unless), something happens to
change it.

10. USDA - Soybeans

11. Export Values Set Our Price
Typical
Ontario
Production
3 million
acres at
50bu/ac
4 million NT
Imports from
US
Nearby US
supply into
Ontario crush
0.3 million MT
Food Grade &
Non-GMO
25% to 28%
of total acres
1 million MT
Domestic
Crush
Bunge
Hamilton &
ADM Windsor
1.1 million MT
Exportable
Surplus
2.2 million MT

12. Comparing US Soybeans To Prior Years

13. Who To Watch In Soybean Markets

14. South American Soybean Production Surging

15. Global Soybean Usage May Exceed Supply

16. Canadian Canola Supply & Demand

17. Predicting Canola Prices

18. South American Soybean Prices
 Brazilian soybeans are worth more than their American competition.
 Ontario’s values are very closely correlatedwith prices in the US
Gulf.

19. U.S. : China Trade
 Nearly 50% of the global soybean supply is consumed
in China.
 American soybeans currently face a 25% tariff in order
to enter China.
 It is factually incorrect that China will “have to” buy
U.S. soybeans.
 Dead Pigs don’t eat. When 85 – 90 million hogs die
from ASF, it reduces soymeal demand, and therefore
the need to purchase soybeans.
 Enormous market volatility created by one twitter user.
Can we capture those gains?

20. Our Portion of the Wheat Market
 “wheat” news sometimes has too great of impact on cash bids.
 Only about 12% of NorthAmerica’s wheat is soft red, and although
traders often “cross hedge” between classes, end users are pretty
limited in their ability to substitute classes.

21. Ontario Soft Wheat

22. US Soft Red Wheat – Declining Supply

23. Wheat Pricing Considerations
 In Ontario, soft red wheat and corn prices always reach
the same level (in $’s per tonne), in August /
September.
 The carry has completely gone out of wheat futures.
It’s primarily the result of increased demand for soft
wheat pulling stocks out of storage. Longer term it’s
useful for wheat producers because those burdensome
stocks are no longer weighing on the market.

24. What About Australia?

25. Questions?