2011 expo-post fossil-fuel

Preparing for the Post-
Fossil Fuel Economy

Jay Warmke
Blue Rock Station

© 2011, Blue Rock Station

Columbus Green Building Forum

This program is a registered educational program with the
Columbus Green Building Forum and AIA/CES . The
content within the program is not created or endorsed by
the Columbus Green Building Forum and AIA/CES nor
should the content be construed as an approval of any
product, building method, or service. Information on the
specific content can be addressed at the conclusion on the
program, by the Registered Provider.

Credit earned for completing this program will
automatically be submitted to the Columbus Green
Building Forum. Completion certificates can be obtained
by contacting the Provider directly.


Learning Objectives:
1. Participants will learn how the evolution of fuel
over the past century has led to building practices
as well as how cities and society has organized
itself.
2. Participants will be exposed to how these fuel
systems (for heating/cooling, electrical, and
transportation) will change dramatically over the
coming decades.
3. Participants will also learn how traditional raw
materials used for construction will dramatically
increase in cost, if available at all - and what
alternatives may arise.
4. We will explore how these changes may
dramatically impact how buildings are
constructed, as well as how society will organize
itself (cities, suburbs, green areas, etc).


What is Blue Rock Station?


What is Blue Rock Station?

“Pollution is nothing
but the resources we
are not harvesting.
We allow them to
disperse because
we've been ignorant
of their value.”
- R. Buckminster Fuller


The Year is 1911
World population, 1.7 billion
40,000 Model T's produced, double from
1910


The Year is 2011
EVERYTHING is about to change
AGAIN...

we are
entering the
post-petroleum
economy


The GaiaStatic Century?

Leave her
like you
found her.


What are we assuming?
In the future, there will be more
people on the planet


The bottom line...
But w hat about Me?


8 New “Americas”


The Numbers are SO Huge
For Example:
US uses 3,741,485,000 MW-h per y

Give everyone a 60 W light bulb and
let them use them for 8 hours per
day...
Add 1,576,800,000 MW-h per y or
about 42% of the annual US use


Things that we use - that cannot
be replaced - will eventually begin
to run out


So, how did we get here?
1974
1956


In One Generation...

1933


to run out
When more people want a
limited something, it will cost more.


It is not about running out!
• 4% production drop will result
in 177% increase in cost
• Estimate 3-10% drop each
year
“There will be an average of two-percent
annual growth in global oil demand over
the years ahead, along with,
conservatively, a three-percent natural
decline in production from existing
reserves.”
- VP Dick Cheney


Wonderful world of compounding...
Even at half that rate...
• 2010 $3.00 per gallon
• 2011 x 139% = $4.17
• 2012 x 139% = $5.80
• 2013 x 139% = $8.06
• 2014 x 139% = $11.20
• 2015 x 139% = $15.57


to run out
When more people want a
limited something, it will cost more.
It’s gonna get worse before it
gets better


The Oil Economy
The energy contained in One Barrel
of oil contains the equivalent of
25,000 human hours of labor
(12 people working 40 hrs per week)
Currently 1 barrel = $100
25,000 hrs x $8 = $200,000


2006


The Electrical Grid
Worldwide demand
will double over next
40 years


So where is it coming from?


Coal?
2.5%
60 years


Nuclear?

1977
Build one brand new
billion-watt nuclear
power plant every 1.6
days until the year
2050, they will
generate only about 8
terawatts.


Natural Gas?


Peak Oil!


So, what's Next?
"The Americans will always do
the Right Thing…after they have
exhausted all the Alternatives."

- Winston Churchill


Green Technology

Solar

Wind

BioMass

Hydro

Ocean Power

Hydrogen


Wind?
• Currently only
2.3% of electricity
in US

• 20% by 2030

• Capacity has
grown 50% each
year


Wind?

• 2010 study
shows potential of
37 petawatts
annually – 9 times
the current
electrical
consumption


Solar Power?

2010, installed PV
doubled

Costs
dropped 30%


Solar Power?

US Solar Doubled
again in 2011

69% of
US electricity
from solar
by 2050

From Scientific American


So where WILL it come from?
ien cies
Effic
a tion
serv
Con
Fossil Fuels

Renewables
lec tric
e
Hy dro


What if we cut Energy in Half?


Green Technology
Cost of Fossil
Fuels

2007
Utility-Scale Wind
Cost of
Renewable
Energy


Green Technology
Cost of Fossil
Fuels

2015
Residential Solar
Cost of
Renewable
Energy


Green Technology

Moore's
Jay's Law

Cost of
Renewable
Energy cut in half
every 4 years


Energy is NOT the Problem


Energy is NOT the Problem
It (the Sun) provides enough energy
in one minute to supply the world's
energy needs for one year. In one
day, it provides more energy than our
current population would consume in
27 years. In fact, "The amount of
solar radiation striking the earth over
a three-day period is equivalent to the
energy stored in all fossil energy
sources." - NASA


Ask Yourself...

What will the world
look like when
energy is free, and
everything else is
very very
expensive?


How will it affect...

Transportation?
City Structures?
Buildings?
The Economy?


Who am I talking about...

The Rich?
Middle Class?
The Poor?


Downwardly Mobile...

as globalization
begins to level the
playing field.


Transportation – Short Term
Transition to electric – so all
buildings require integration
of vehicles as load as well as
storage
devices


What about Systems
Smart Grid creating peer-to-
peer energy systems.
AC or DC or Wireless?
Independent versus
municipal systems
($3.5 million for sewers for
200 homes?)


Power Integrated into Everything


Transportation – Long Term
Ruralification of City
Centers?
– City clusters for social
interaction and resource
conservation
– Rural give up access for
space. Will virtual
packaging change this?


So What is Virtual Packaging?
Already exists on Internet
– Amazon.com or I-tunes
– Is local inventory
required?
– Virtual Main Street
– Cooperative delivery

So how does this change
the design of
retail/commercial?

What about Virtual Housing?
When CGI is cheaper than real... what then?
We live in “fake homes” now,
why not take the plunge?


Communal Housing
Independent dwellings contain only what we
need, all other “activity rooms” shared.
– Result, larger livable space,
smaller units per person
» Entertainment Room
» Kitchen
» Dining Room
» Bedroom
» Bathroom
» Foyer
» Study

Building Materials
He who has the most garbage,
wins (cradle to cradle).
Balance energy efficiency with
material costs.


Water
Access to water will determine where you
live.
– Is Chicago the next great
city?


The GaiaStatic Century
Pack out what you Pack in...

“May you live in Interesting
Times”
» Chinese Curse


There will be problems...


2011 expo-post fossil-fuel

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