I am available to present on Zoom (Elton@EltonSherwin.com) California has had 25 times more deaths, per capita, than the Pacific-rim democracies. What did Governor Newsom fail to do? I read 100s of reports from South Korea, Taiwan and Japan and concluded… The Pacific rim democracies that have contained major outbreaks of COVID-19 have taken a set of actions that together have proven amazingly effective.

1. Guided by Science
They Failed
Elton B. Sherwin
Environmentalist and Author
Elton@EltonSherwin.com
tiny.cc/COVIDFails January 2021Rev. 42r2
California Governor
Gavin Newsom
French President
Emmanuel Macron
Why?

2. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
United Kingdom
United States
France
Sweden
California
Australia
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
Taiwan
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=AUS~CHN~JPN~NZL~KOR~TWN~USA~SWE~FRA~GBR~ITA~ESP&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hide
Controls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc State data:
www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/ State data is per 100,000. Country data is per million.
Pacific Rim Democracies
vs.
Selected Western Democracies
Cumulative COVID-19 Fatalities
per million
For all of 2020

3. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
United Kingdom
United States
France
Sweden
California
Australia
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
Taiwan
Sweden, US and UK
Were Not Initially
Guided by Science
Cumulative COVID-19 Fatalities
per million for all of 2020

4. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
France
California
Australia
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
Taiwan
France and California Both Had
Bright, Well-educated
Leaders
Who Listened to Science
Cumulative COVID-19 Fatalities
per million for all of 2020

5. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
France
California
Australia
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
Taiwan
Yet They Failed
For every death in Japan
California has had 25 Deaths
France has had 37 deaths*
* Adjusted for population size (per capita)

6. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
France
California
Australia
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
Taiwan
Compared to Japan
25 x More Likely to Die in California
37 x More Likely to Die in France
40 x More Likely to Die in U.S.
* Adjusted for population size (per capita)
During 2020

7. California, like France,
Should Have Done Better
Charismatic, bright articulate leaders
 Listened to public health officials and
scientists
 Consensus builders
 Ideal leaders for liberal democracies
7

8. California, like France,
Should Have Done Better
Charismatic, bright articulate leaders
 Listened to public health officials and
scientists
 Consensus builders
 Ideal leaders for liberal democracies
“Perfect” for most situations
But for not this virus 8

9. This Virus
 You eliminate it or it takes over
 Winner takes all
 No middle ground. No truces.
 Needed every weapon in the public health
arsenal to beat it
9
You can eliminate it, but
you can’t manage it

10. To Beat this Virus…
…Requires a different type of
leadership
 Singlemindedness of purpose
 Using every available tool
 No compromises
 No appeasement
 It is a war
10

11. What Western Officials Missed
 It was easier
And far cheaper
To “Go for Zero”
 Than to manage it, contain it
or to “bend the curve”
11
I had done 35 updates, over
6 months, before I saw this…

12. The States and Countries that Tried to
“Flatten the Curve” Got Clobbered
12
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=AUS~JPN~NZL~KOR~TWN~USA~SWE~GBR~CHN~VNM~CUB~FRA&region=World&deathsMetric=t
rue&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
Total COVID-19 Deaths per million inhabitants cumulative
Get To Zero
Flatten the
Curve
There appears to be little
middle ground
If a door is open this virus
will sneak in and explode
3-6 weeks later

13. What Western Officials Missed
13
It Was Easier to
“Go for Zero”
Than to
“Flatten the Curve”

14. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100
France
California
Australia
Japan
South Korea
New Zealand
Taiwan
What Did They Do Differently?
What Did California and France
And Most of the West Fail to Do?
Let’s Look at Specifics
Cumulative Fatalities
per million for all of 2020

15. What Asian Democracies Did
That the West Failed to Do
√ Targeted testing of those most likely to have COVID-19
√ Contact tracing of 100% of those infected
√ Daily check-ins with all infected individuals via text,
phone or a home visit
√ Quarantines for infected individuals apart from families
√ Locking down borders of areas with outbreaks
√ Making cellular location data available to public health
officials
15
1 of 3

16. What Asian Democracies Did
That the West Failed to Do
√ Using mobile apps to identify people at high risk who
should be tested
√ Requiring people in quarantine to carry a phone, or other
electronic tracker
√ Using AI to identify outbreaks quickly
√ Mandatory tracking of all people crossing borders
√ Mandatory tracking of all people entering virus free
areas
16
2 of 3

17. Asian Democracies Used Every Available Tool
The Western Democracies Did Not
√ Restricting people from leaving areas with high levels
of the virus
√ Electronic tracking all people entering stores, bars and
restaurants
√ Geofencing to prevent individuals from violating their
quarantines
√ Quickly identifying super-spreader events
√ Shutting down facilities likely to be super-spreader
events (e.g. Bars and universities) 173 of 3

18. 18
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-01-
31..latest&country=JPN~USA~CAN~Europe&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location&pickerSort=asc
Total COVID-19 Deaths per million inhabitants cumulative
Pacific Rim Democracies
Canada
USA
Europe
Every Large Democracy
that Ignored these “Asian”
Action items Is Now
Experiencing a Surge

19. World Used Two Strategies
Close the Borders and
Go for Zero
 American Samoa
 New Zealand
 Australia
 Taiwan
 South Korea
 Japan
 China
 Vietnam
Personal Choice
Balance Competing Interests
Keep Business Open
 US Federal government
 49 of US states
 Britain
 Sweden
 France
 Russia
 Brazil
19

20. The Contradiction that
Few Foresaw
“Go for Zero” Camp
 Put a wall around your
state
 Track down every case
 Isolate those infected
 Monitor those exposed
 Treat every case as
important
 Continued Vigilance
“Keep Business Open” Camp
 Tap down the virus
 Keep it from getting out of
hand
 Slow it down
 Some deaths are
inevitable
 Compliance is a matter of
personal choice
20

21. The Contradiction that
Few Foresaw
“Go for Zero” Camp
 Kept most businesses
open
 Little unemployment
 Minimal economic
disruption
 Fewer restrictions on
personal freedoms
“Keep Business Open” Camp
 More business failures
 Huge economic impact
 More restrictions on
personal freedoms
 Far larger government
expenditures
 40x as many deaths
21

22. Governments that Prioritized
“Personal Freedom” over Public Wellbeing
Failed at Both
Asian democracies:
 Had 1/40 as many deaths
 Very little unemployment
 Strong economies
Western democracies:
 40x as many deaths
 Millions unemployed
 Vast economic disruption
22
Hong Kong Subway - Felix Wong

23. One Example
Gives Us Hope
23

24. 600
400
200
New Infections per day**
Victoria, Australia (Melbourne)
Second Wave Hit Hard
“Go for zero” program
 Border restrictions
 Mask mandates
 QR codes to enter all businesses
 Every case traced and monitored
24
** www.vox.com/2020/12/4/22151242/melbourne-victoria-australia-covid-19-cases-lockdown
Results:
39 consecutive days
with no new cases*
* www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update

25. A Tale of Two States
Similar in size and population
Both hit hard by COVID-19
Victoria, Australia
 Yesterday: No deaths and 3 new cases*
Missouri, United States of America
 Yesterday: 182 deaths and 3,085 new cases**
25* www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-update
** https://news.google.com/covid19/map as of Jan.5, 2021

26. This Time
A Vaccine Will Likely Save Us
But what if next time, in 202X, a vaccine is as
difficult to develop as it has been for:
 HIV
 Syphilis
 Malaria or Dengue
And it takes years to develop a vaccine.
And the West responds 40x worse than Asia?
Will Western democracies even survive? 26

27. Next Time
Must Be Better Prepared
Prepared to…
…close state borders
…monitor of all cases
…enable health departments to use cell phone records
…require everyone entering the US or crossing state
borders use a mobile app
…develop a national contact tracing system
Prepared to use technology 27

28. More Details in the Appendix
And in Two Documents
Both Are Downloadable
28
http://tiny.cc/ProgressiveList
http://tiny.cc/COVIDLessons

29. Questions?
29http://tiny.cc/ProgressiveList
http://tiny.cc/COVIDLessons
I am available to present or discuss:
Elton@EltonSherwin.com
This presentation can be downloaded
from: http://tiny.cc/COVIDFails

30. Appendix
30

31. The Winning Formula
I read 100s of reports from South Korea,
Taiwan, Japan and Australia and concluded…
The Pacific rim democracies that have
contained major outbreaks of COVID-19 have
taken a suite of actions that together have
proven amazingly effective.
31

32. What Should the New
Administration Do?
32
Given our current situation…

33. The Basics
33

34. Simulation Shown on Japanese Television
34
He coughed 15
minutes ago*
* https://quillette.com/2020/04/23/covid-19-superspreader-events-in-28-countries-critical-patterns-and-lessons/

35. Preventing
Super Spreader Events
35

36. 36
Most Super-
Spreading Events
 10+ people
 Indoors
 No masks
 30+ minutes
36
Image: James Lloyd-Smith, UC Berkeley (modified)
Wedding
Bar
Jail
Retirement Home
Church
Families
* www.vox.com/21296067/coronavirus-covid-
symptoms-superspreaders-superspreading-
contagious-bars-restaurants

37. Copy South Korea
37
The Critical Role of Information Technology

38. South Korea Has Produced a Detailed
“How to Guide” for other Governments
38
I Cannot Find a Single Piece of Advice the U.S.
Federal Government Has Followed
www.moef.go.kr/com/cmm/fms/FileDown.do?atchFileId=ATCH_000000000013739&fileSn=2
United States
South Korea
80 fold
difference

39. Media
39

40. Kremlin Disinformation About COVID-19,
Amplified by Fox, Is a Major Problem
40
* https://euvsdisinfo.eu/ Infographic: https://euvsdisinfo.eu/disinformation-can-kill/

41. Foreclosures and Evictions
41

42. Essential Workers
42

43. The Winning Formula
From Asian Democracies
The Pacific rim democracies that have contained
major outbreaks of COVID-19 have taken 12
actions that together have proved amazingly
effective.
1. Masks in all work and public environments
2. Cellular location data and apps for contact
tracing, symptom monitoring and forecasting
3. Clear communication, free of foreign
disinformation 43

44. 4. Border restrictions: restricting and monitoring all
individuals entering from affected areas
5. Temperature checks and thermal imaging at home
and entrances to stores, offices and schools
6. Traditional contact tracing (manual)
7. Individual quarantines (separate from families)
8. Targeted testing with multiple follow-ups for all
who test positive
44

45. The Four America Originally Focused on
9. Stay-at-home orders and home quarantines
with family members
10. Curfews and restrictions on large gatherings
11. “Social distancing” and no handshaking
12. Hygiene and Hand washing
45

46. The Indispensable Role
of Tracking Cell Phones
46
This map shows where cell
phones traveled from the inside
of one Tyson meat processing
plant in Indiana during the month
of March.
Over 900 workers were infected
at this plant.
It is not known how many
people they then infected
outside the plant as employees,
contractors and truckers
crisscrossed the state and then
the entire nation. Tectonix GEO

47. South Korea’s Automated Contact Tracing System Was
35 to 50 Times Faster than Traditional Manual Methods
47
Like Taiwan, South Korea’s
sophisticated use of information
technology enabled it to quickly
find those who had been
exposed, thus preventing further
transmission.
America has 1,000s of food
processing plants and distribution
centers (Amazon, Walmart, UPS,
Safeway, USPS, KRAFT, etc.)
Most are conveniently located
next to an Interstate highway.Tectonix GEO

48. What Needs to Be Done?
Make cellular network data available to
public health officials
 Americans get 10 days to opt out
 People who don’t want their phones tracked
 And who don’t want to be notified if they have
been exposed, or exposed someone else
48
Tectonix GEO

49. And: Develop an App
For symptom monitoring and
contact location tracking
49Oracle app, Zdnet
Modified to include temperature
What is your temperature? 100.1

50. Lifesaving Apps Have…
1. Location data for all contacts and logging all
Bluetooth pings and beacons
2. Background operation: App does not need to
be open to function
3. Basic health profile: age, are they members of
vulnerable population?
4. A few simple health and behavior questions:
 Are you coughing ? Do you have a sore throat?
Difficulty breathing? etc.
 Were you wearing mask?
5. Daily temperature of the user recorded 50

51. Lifesaving Apps Have…
6. The defaults for all of the above should be ON
at installation.
7. Option to share the data with public health
officials (opt out vs. opt in).
8. A simple way for parents, schools, hospitals,
airlines and employers to check the app is
installed correctly and running.
9. Color coding to tell you, a parent, a school, a
restaurant or bus driver if you are likely to be
infected: green, lime green, yellow, red.
10.Interoperability with other states (for travelers and
truckers).
51

52. “But I don’t want the government
to know where I am…”
 Don’t install the app.
 And opt out.
 However, you might
first check who you are
already trusting with
your location.
 My phone gives my
location to 50 apps,
and 3 all the time… 52

53. What Else Can We Learn from Asia?
Every Country in Asia which has controlled COVID-19:
 Extensive use of temperature checks
 Mandatory monitoring of EVERYONE who
exits a hot spot or crosses a border
 Automated, national contact tracking system
 Uses location data from the cellular network
 Following up with everyone who tests positive
53

54. The Nordic Counties vs. U.S. and S. Korea
54
We should study Finland
Norway and South Korea
Not Sweden
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-
explorer?zoomToSelection=true&country=KOR~USA~NOR~FIN~SWE&region=World&deathsMetric=true&interval=total&hideControls=true&perCapita=true&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=location

55. 55
References
How Taiwan crushed COVID-19:
www.pbs.org/newshour/show/taiwans-aggressive-efforts-are-paying-off-in-fight-against-covid-19
How Asia contained COVID-19:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/07/coronavirus-lessons-learned-in-asia-show-us-is-at-risk-of-a-resurge-in-cases-as-states-
reopen-businesses.html
Nearly 900 workers at a Tyson plant test positive:
https://thehill.com/homenews/news/495564-nearly-900-workers-at-tyson-meat-plant-in-indiana-test-positive-for-coronavirus
Tyson employees, contractors and truckers travel, spreading out across the country:
Video: https://twitter.com/i/status/1258109399073161216
Image: https://www.dailydot.com/debug/cellphone-heat-map-meat-industry/
Scientific papers on the importance of masks:
http://tiny.cc/MaskScience and http://tiny.cc/maskswork and next note
The Magic of 80% masking:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf and http://tiny.cc/KillTheVirus Also see note 4
The CDC: Most persons, 83%–99%, will experience a fever:
www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/clinical-guidance-management-patients.html