Harvard M&A Case Competition 2023.
Team: More Than Stanley
Topic: Financial Due Diligence, Financial Modeling, and Equity Valuation on Danish wind turbine manufacturer, Vestas.
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More Than Stanley_Deck.pdf
1. Data transforming the
renewable industry
Team: More Than Stanley
Emile Deneffe, Felix Boelck, Johanna Nilsson, Sondre Beckroege
Hult International Business School
Cambridge, March 12th, 2023
2. Executive Summary 4
I. Industry Overview 6
II. Company Analysis 14
A. Siemens
B. Vestas
C. Strategic Fit
III. Financial Analysis 36
A. Comparables
B. Discounted Cash Flow
C. Synergies
IV. Acquisition Feasibility 57
V. Alternative Solution 64
VI. Conclusion 69
Bibliography 71
2
Table of Contents
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
3. Table of Abbreviations
3
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Abbreviation Explanation
AI Artificial Intelligence
APAC Asia-Pacific
b Billion
Btu British thermal unit
CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate
CIS Commonwealth of Independent States
COGS Cost of Goods Sold
DCF Discounted Cash Flow
DKK Danish Krone
e.g. ”exempli gratia” or for example
EBITDA Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization
EMEA Europe, the Middle East, and Africa
ESG Environmental, Social and Governance
EUR Euro
EV Enterprise Value
FY Fiscal Year
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GW Giga Watt
HHI Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
i.e. “Id est” or in other words
IEA International Energy Agency
IoT Internet of Things
IPO Initial Public Offering
Abbreviation Explanation
m Million
M&A Mergers and Acquisitions
MW Mega Watt
ML Machine Learning
O&M Operations & Maintenance
OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer
PP&E Property, Plant, & Equipment
R&D Research & Development
ROA Return on Assets
ROCE Return on Capital Employed
ROE Return on Equity
SaaS Software as a service
SDG Sustainable Development Goal
SG&A Selling, General & Administrative
SGRE Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
TWh Terra Watt hours
US United States
USD United States Dollar
YoY Year-over-year
YoY Year-over-year
WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital
WEF World Economic Forum
~ Approximately
5. 5
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Executive Summary
Siemens should not acquire Vestas. Instead, the company should acquire Utopus Insights from Vestas, which is Vestas’ data analytics asset that
would complement Siemens’ current capabilities in smart infrastructure and help pave the way to success in this high potential market.
Siemens should acquire Utopus Insights
Siemens AG is a multinational conglomerate which is currently exploring ways to streamline their businesses in order to become a more focused technology company. Despite already
having a significant stake in the wind turbine OEM industry, Siemens is now considering the acquisition of Vestas to assess if the transaction aligns with Siemens' strategic direction.
Should Siemens acquire Vestas?
Siemens should not acquire Vestas Wind Systems A/S
Strategic Fit:
• Acquiring Utopus Insights would align the company with their shareholders’
demand for a more focused structure with technology at its core.
• Access to the advanced data analytics and data points that directly power
Siemens’ smart infrastructure projects
Acquisition Feasibility:
• Avoidance of anti-trust issues altogether
• Acquiring just the asset, instead of the entire company makes the transaction
significantly more financially feasible
• Based on their estimated revenue of 41,15 m EUR in 2022, assumed purchase price
would range between 704,7 and 1 408 m EUR
Financial Feasibility:
• Substantial synergies add sizeable upside and justify a maximum purchasing price of
38,3 b EUR, which represents a maximum takeover premium of up to 34,9%,
despite capital markets currently overvaluing Vestas's equity by 28,9%
An acquisition is deemed not feasible:
• Anti-trust regulation would not allow for this transaction to take place
• Shareholders reluctance towards the energy market as they demand that the
company simplifies its conglomerate structure, and focuses on technology
7. Industry Breakdown
7
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Business Segments
Digital Industries
Smart Infrastructure
Mobility
Healthineers
Financial Services
Markets
• Aerospace & Defense
• Robotics
• Machinery and Heavy Equipment
• Oil and Gas
• Electronics and Semiconductors
• Energy and Utilities
• Power Generation and Distribution
• Transportation Infrastructure
• Data Centers
• Intelligent Transport Systems
• Intelligent Traffic Systems
• Traction Power Supplies
• Rail Transportation
• Energy and Renewables
• Industry and Manufacturing
• Retail and Commercial Finance
• Infrastructure and Cities
• Technology and Software
• Diagnostic Imaging
• Laboratory Diagnostics
• Advanced Therapies
• Service and Digital Health Solutions
Portfolio Companies
Siemens Digital Industries Business Segment has
experienced a CAGR of 7,7% since 2018.
Siemens Smart Infrastructure Business Segment has
experienced a CAGR of 4,6% since 2018
Takeaways
Siemens Portfolio Company Business Segment
turned profitable between 2021 and 2022
The global Electric Power Generation,
transmission, and distribution market is expected
to grow by ∼ 1 410 b EUR within 2026 at a CAGR
of 7,6%
The global Utilities Market is expected to grow by
∼ 2 006 b EUR within 2026 at a CAGR of 7,9%
Sources: (Siemens, 2023), (Siemens Energy, 2023), (Siemens Gamesa, 2023), (Siemens Healthineers, 2023), (Business Wire, 2022), (GlobeNewsWires, 2022), (Ogewell, 2022, Engineering)
Siemens operates in several industries, with technology as a key driver in Digital Industries, Smart Infrastructure, Mobility, and Healthcare.
• Large Drives Applications
• Commercial Vehicles
• Siemens Logistics
Note: All numbers throughout the presentation that were initially expressed in USD have been translated from USD to EUR with an exchange rate of 0,9396 USD/EUR, per March 10, 2023.
8. Key Takeaways
Market Reaction, Russian Total Oil Exports, 22-23
8
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (IEA, 2021), (IEA, 2022), (Renewables Report, IEA, 2022), (National Library of Medicine, 2021), (S&P Global Platts, 2020), (NY Times, 2023)
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
China India US EU
Gas Coal
Renewables Oil
Nuclear
2020 2021
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2019
2%
3%
1%
-3,5%
-4,0%
0,5%
0,0%
Global GDP Global Primary energy demand
The fragility of the global energy system has been re –
exposed by both the Covid pandemic and the Russia /
Ukraine war, which has made many nations investigate
how to become less dependent on global energy supply
and hence increasing their security
• In 2021, Russia was accountable for 10,56% of the total
global energy production
• Russian unpredictability shown through the invasion and the
stoppage in supply towards Europe has increased the priority
of countries to become less reliant on key players in the
market - opting for locally produced renewables instead
• Economic and energy disruptions amplified calls for a green
transition
• Europe faces potential energy shortages in the winter of
2023, dramatically increasing the incentives to invest in more
reliable sources of energy
• Due to Covid-19, the demand for global energy fell by 4,0%,
while demand for Oil, Gas, & Coal dropped by respectively
9,0%, 4,0%, and 2,0% during 2020
• Renewables showed to be more resilient in comparison with
fossil fuels, with an increased demand of 3,0% from 2019 to
2021
• Most advanced and developing economies experienced
decreasing energy demands, but China was an exception
with its increasing economic output and demand for energy
18,8%
8,8%
2,5%
21,3%
1,3%
5,0%
12,5%
Jan 2022
30,0%
8,6%
6,2%
28,4%
19,8%
29,6%
Jan 2023
8,0 8,1
7,4% EU Crude Oil
Turkey
India
UK + US
OECD Asia
EU Products
Other / Unknown
China
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450
2010-2015
2022-27 acc. case
2022-27 main case
2016-2021
+130,0%
COVID-19
War in Europe
IEA Renewable capacity growth in Europe, in GW
Market reaction to macroeconomic events during 2019 - 2021
Macroeconomic Events
Disruptions caused by Covid-19, the war in Europe and other geopolitical events accentuated the need to value renewable energy not only in
terms of decarbonization, but also in terms of energy independence and resilience; the ‘Energy Crisis’ is in fact a ‘Fossil Fuel Crisis’.
Change of primary energy demand in 2019-2021 Change of primary energy demand by region and
fuel type from 2019-2021
In million barrels per day (mb/d)
9. CAGR ‘20-’25
6,4%
-3,6%
-3,2%
-0,4%
3,1%
4,7%
8,4%
Key Drivers
Global Energy Market Overview (1/2)
9
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
• The power generation, transmission and distribution industry generated
sales of 4 506 b EUR globally during 2022 and is expected to grow at a
CAGR of 7,6% until 2030
• Europe and Asia & Oceania are the continents with the biggest power
generation deficit, hence high growth opportunities anticipated within
those geographical areas
• High growth opportunities anticipated within Europe
• Biggest key drivers is expected to be emerging markets in form of
countries within Asia, the Middle East and Africa
• Some key players in the global energy markets are Equinor ASA,
ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, Vestas, Tata Power, and Ørsted
48%
20%
15%
5%
4%
4%
3%
Eurasia
Europe
Middle East
North America
Central & South America
Africa
Asia Pacific
Sources: (McKinsey, 2021), (McKinsey, 2022), (Yahoo, 2021), (Fernández, Statista, 2023), (Statista, 2023), (NsEnergyBusiness, 2020), (Eneroutlook, 2023), (Li et all., 2021, IOPScience), (Armstrong, 2022, WEF), (Offshore Technology, 2022),
0
8 000
7 000
3 000
6 000
2 000
4 000
1 000
9 000
5 000
2027E
2024E
7 253
7 804
2023E 2029E
2028E
2025E
2022
4 675
5 029
5 822
2030E
6 265
6 741
2026E
5 411
8 397
+7,6%
In billion EUR
Region Production
Africa 32,29
Eurasia 82,79
Consumption Net
Europe
Asia & Oceania
Middle East
South America
North America
40,57
211,46
84,80
27,29
127,61
20,25
47,73
78,91
274,24
36,12
26,92
119,15
12,04
35,06
-38,34
-62,78
48,68
0,37
8,46
in quad Btu
According to IOPscience,
increased energy
consumption in developing
countries can be explained
by the following factors:
1) Population growth
2) Higher GDP per capita
3) More access to energy
structure
Power Generation, Transmission, and Distribution Revenue
Total Energy Production & Consumption by region, 2021 Global Power Consumption Forecast Based on Geography
Global Energy Market Key Takeaways Global Energy Key Players
Key Drivers
Current supply shortages emphasize the need for change in order to keep up with the increasing global demand for energy, predominantly
driven by economic growth in emerging economies.
Negative CAGR
Negative CAGR
Negative CAGR
10. 10
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (EIA, 2023), (EIA, 2019), (McKinsey, 2023)
5%
-4%
-2%
-2%
-1%
2%
0%
4%
-2%
-6%
-4%
12%
2030-2050
2025-2030
11%
Thousand TWh
Renewables (excl. nuclear) Oil & Gas Nuclear
33% 27% 22% 18%
37% 38%
39%
37%
2021 2025 2030 2035
Conventional
Gas
Renewables
Oil
Decarbonization Tech
As percentage of Each year
10
14 20 22
7
10
18
25
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2010 2020
2000 2040 2050
2030
Thousand TWh
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-5,0%
-10,0%
-3,6%
2010-20
3,8%
6,0%
2040-2050
2030 -2040
2020-30
-5,7%
Energy conusmption per capita % change
250 260 270 290
55 55 55
30
60
240
285
345
415
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
0
2020
25 25 40
50
2030
45
45
35
2040
50
45
2050
50
40
+1,2%
Asia Africa Europe and Eurasia
Middle East OECD
Americas
0
5
10
2030 2040 2050
2020
8,55 9,20 9,74
7,79
Estimated population until 2050
Global power mix forecast Global Investments in the Energy Sector Global Investments in the Energy Sector
Key Takeaways
• According to McKinsey & Company Renewables are projected to account for 80-90% of
power generation globally by 2050, and 50% within 2030 (disruption due to the Russia /
Ukraine war not considered)
• Total Investments within the energy supply sector is projected to increase by 4% YoY
according to McKinsey & Company equaling to 1 597 b EUR by 2035. This would result in
an allocation of 591 b EUR to renewables in 2035
• McKinsey & Company estimates Renewables to grow at a CAGR of ~ 5%, as Oil & Gas,
with Nuclear having a negative CAGR of ~ -2% and ~ -1% respectively
• Despite more efficient use of energy, high levels of population growth are expected to
outweigh these effects, aggregating to a total increase in consumption
Energy Consumption & Population Forecasted energy Usage by Region
Other
Wind Onshore Gas
Wind Offshore Coal
Solar Nuclear
Hydro
Global Energy Market Overview (2/2)
Forecasts for the global power mix and the allocation of investments in the energy sector showcase that many nations around the world realize
that renewables (especially wind and solar) are the only answer to achieve energy sustainability, affordability, and security.
Percentage change
In Billions
In quad BTU
11. 11
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
300
550
300
500
850
250
450
600
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
0
2010-15 2016-21
150
2022-27 main
1 150
1 200
2022-27
aoc. case
2022-27
Net Zero 50
750
1 300
2 400
2 950
3 790
1 100
World
Emerging / developing countries
China
Advanced economies
In GW
2026E 2028E 2030E
1 134
2024E
1 024
2022
1 244
1 354
1 464
1 574
1 684
1 794
1 904
+8,1%
445
576 704
846
596
643
675
704
763
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
0
4 070
2017
1 140
4 183
2018
1 421
4 231
2019
1 596
4 346
2020
1 033
1 862
4 274
2021
1 270
Other Renewables Solar Hydropower
Wind
In TWh
In billion EUR
• 2021 Hydropower was the leading renewable
technology producing 4 274 TWh, 53,88% of the total
global renewable production
• Wind technology was the second largest producer with
a total generation of 1 862 TWh , 23,47% of the total
production in 2021, Solar accounted for 13,02%
• Solar had a CAGR of 23,4% as Wind and Hydropower
had respectively 13,0% and 1,2% from 2017 to 2021
• Within the wind power generation segment, Vestas is
the leading company with a market share of 17,7%
Key Takeaways Renewable capacity growth forecast, 2010-2027 Renewable energy market revenue
Renewable energy generation by type, 2017-2021 Top onshore wind turbine suppliers' globally, 2021 Top offshore wind turbine suppliers' globally, 2021
Sources: (Renewables Report, IEA, 2022), (Ritchie et al., 2023)
Renewable Energy Market Overview
Within the growing renewable energy space, solar and wind are expected to overtake hydropower in the power mix, with Vestas being the
largest wind turbine manufacturer in the world.
17,7%
9,7%
8,6%
8,5%
43,7%
11,8%
Total energy installed = 104,704 MW
21,6%
13,3%
12,2%
11,4%
22,0%
19,5%
Total offshore energy installed = 19,434 MW
29 234
installed
wind
turbines
Vestas
Goldwind
Gamesa
Envision
GE
Vestas
Goldwind
Gamesa
Sewind
Mingyang
Others
Others
12. 12
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Renewables Report, IEA, 2022), (GlobalNewswire, 2022), (Precedence Reasearch, 2022), (GWEC, 2022), (IRENA, 2019), (Wood MacKenzie, 2022)
63
67
71
75
80
85
91
96
102
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2026E 2028E
2022 2024E 2030E
6,3%
In billion EUR
28 30 32 35 38 41 44 47
50
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2026E 2028E
2022 2024E 2030E
7,5%
Revenue
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
-10%
1,0%
-5,0%
Component
supply
1,0%
4,5%
-5,5%
Turbine Supply
27,0%
20,0%
10,5%
O&M Services
37,5%
23,0%
11,0%
Asset Ownership
-2,0%
Typical EBIT %
EBIT %
• The wind turbine operations and
maintenance market is expected to
grow at a CAGR of 7,46%
generating a revenue of ~50 b EUR
in 2030
• The actual production of the wind
turbines are less profitable than the
servicing and maintenance
• It is expected that the O&M market
will experience higher growth than
the OEM market
System Design
Society
Supply Chain
Technology
Infrastructure
Workforce
Wind turbine manufacturing forecasted revenues 2022-2030 Key Market Drivers Wind turbine operations & maintenance revenue forecast 2022-2030
Wind industry profitability by value stream segment, 2021 Challenges for the industry, short-term Key Takeaways
• It is in the aftermarket
OEM’s harvest the bigger
profits
• Big threats for the industry
is among others; social
acceptance, gas industry,
grid investments,
increasing supply chain
costs, and specialized
workforce staff
• The wind turbine manufacturing
market is expected to grow at a
CAGR of 6,34% generating a
revenue of 102 b EUR in 2030
• Onshore wind power generation
is expected to remain larger than
offshore power generation
• Offshore market generates more
electricity per wind turbine
installed, due to a restricted “tip-
height” for onshore turbines
Wind Turbine Market Overview
Wind turbine manufacturing is significantly less profitable in comparison to the next step in the value chain: operations & maintenance service.
In billion EUR
• Goal of reducing carbon
emissions worldwide
• Falling renewable energy
costs
• Ambition of full energy
access worldwide
• Improved Energy Security
nationally
• Company: reduced
impact = economic gain
13. Smart Industries Market Overview
13
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Data-driven Smart Infrastructure (Siemens’ 3rd largest revenue stream) shows tremendous potential for growth.
Sources: (GlobeNewswire, 2022), (IEA, 2022), (Sciencedirect, 2022), (NexusIntegra, 2023), (Kutay, 2023, Striim)
112 138 171
212
263
325
403
0
100
200
300
400
500
2024E 2025E 2026E
2022E 2028E
2027E
2023E
23,8%
In billion EUR
• Increased connectivity through
increased access to
telecommunication networks
• Increased focus on sustainability,
switch to renewable energy sources
• Advancements in AI and ML
Smart Infrastructure forecasted market size, 2022 - 2028 Key Market Drivers
Market size
Vital components for smart Infrastructures to function
As the connector between physical assets and digital technology,
smart infrastructures are based on 4 digital components:
• Data - Base element of all ”smart systems”
• Analytics - Extraction of insights from data collected in order to
make insightful decisions, increasing the efficiency of the system
• Feedback – Asset information used to optimize system operations
• Adaptability – Conform the needs of the future
Investments in smart grid components on electricity grids
36 39 45 47 47 46
55
0
20
40
60
2016 2017 2018
2015 2020 2021
2019
In billion EUR
Digital Investment
725 907
2 000
4 000
6 000
0
2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E
2022E 2030E
2029E
2021
1 136 1 422 1 780
2 229
2 791
3 494
4 375
5 477
25,2%
Smart cities forecasted market size, 2021 - 2030
Market size
In billion EUR
Key Trends
• Urban areas taking advantage of e.g., IoT, ML, and big data
• Using a combination of information and communication to increase
operational efficiency
• Goal to optimize management of assets, services, and resources
through data analytics
• Interconnectivity between physical and digital assets
• Smart Infrastructure serves as the backbone for Smart Cities
• Asia and Europe are the fastest growing markets with CAGR’s of
respectively 25,5% and 19,65%
Smart Cities Explained
Smart data pipelines
Data source Collection Processing Storage Consumption
Governance & Monitoring
Urbanization
Demographic change
Decarbonization
Digitalization
“Smart Infrastructure includes the use
of sensors and smart grid technology
to facilitate smart infrastructure, such
as water and energy networks, streets,
buildings, and so forth.”
- SienceDirect
15. Siemens as a technology focused company
15
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Siemens, 2023), (Britannica, 2022), (Siemens, 2023)
Siemens is a German multinational that aims to solve the world’s most prevalent challenges through innovative technological solutions.
Note: CAGR is adjusted for anomaly due to organizational restructuring in 2019.
2019
4,3%
2020
4,1%
2021
4,6%
2022
38,6%
12,3%
7,6%
19,8%
12,4%
9,3%
34,1%
15,6%
5,9%
22,7%
2018
10,9%
29,4%
18,2%
24,1%
10,9%
13,1%
31,1%
17,0%
24,6%
10,6%
12,7%
30,7%
16,9%
24,2%
11,4%
12,2%
10,8%
Europe (excl. Germany), C.I.S, Africa, Middle East
Americas (excl. U.S).
Asia (excl. China), Australia
Germany
China
U.S.
In million EUR
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
60 000
70 000
80 000
90 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
0
6 000
7 000
5 000
2020 2021 2022
2018 2019
83 044
58 483 57 139
62 265
71 977
+7,2%
Net Income Revenue
Siemens Overview Financial Revenue, per Year
History Highlights
1847 - Foundation of Telegraphen-
Bauanstalt von Siemens & Haske,
based on the construction of the
pointer telegraph
1855-90 – New activities added to
include dynamos, cable telephones,
electric power and electric lightening
1903 – First company
acquired (Schuckert & Co).
A power-engineering
company from Nurnberg
1932 – Second acquisition (Reiniger
Gebbert & Schall), marking Siemens
entrance into medical diagnostic
and therapeutic equipment
1950 – Started rebuilding
global market share within
the global electric market
after World War 2
1980 – Siemens
starts with wind
power
1960 – All standalone
acquired companies were
merged to become
Siemens AG
2015 - an ESG focus is adopted
and a way to measure
contributions to the society was
developed
History Highlights
• Strategic priorities in focus for Siemens: 1) Customer impact, 2) Empowered people,
3) Technology with purpose, and 4) Growth mindset
• Siemens AG has a mission to help solve the world’s biggest challenges, improve the lives of people all over
the world, and leave our planet stronger than it was found
• ESG efforts integrated into entire business to ensure value creation for every customer, industry, and country
• Constantly seeking opportunities to strengthen its position in existing markets, provide access to new or
underserved markets, or complete its technological portfolio in strategic areas
• An open innovation concept allows advancing technologies and creating sustainable solutions for customers
Revenue by Geography
• Siemens AG reported a revenue of 71 977 m EUR in 2022 with a
CAGR of 7,2% from 2019 to 2022
• From more resource-efficient factories, resilient supply chains, and
smarter building and grids, to cleaner and more comfortable
transportation as well as advanced healthcare, Siemens create
technology with purpose adding real value for customers
• Siemens’ biggest market is Europe with 42 373 m EUR (primarily
Germany), America with 25 646 m EUR (primarily U.S), and Asia
with 20 990 m EUR (primarily China)
2022 –Siemensstadt Square as
an urban district of the future,
combining work, research, and
life, emphasizing technology
Siemens Fact Sheet
• Headquarter: Munich, Germany
• Employees: 311 000
• Operations: Worldwide
• Core business segments:
Healthcare, smart infrastructure,
digital industries, mobilities,
renewable energy
As percentage
of total
16. Siemens ESG Focus
16
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Sustainability Report, Siemens, 2022), (Siemens, 2023)
Sustainability is integrated in Siemens DNA as they believe technology is the answer to creating a sustainable future.
DEGREE FRAMEWORK
D ecarbonization
E thics
G overnance
R esource efficiency
E quity
E mployability
Support the 1,5°C target to
fight global warming
Foster a culture of trust,
adhere to ethical standards,
and handle data with care
Apply state-of-the-art systems
for effective and responsible
business conduct
Achieve circularity and
dematerialization
Foster diversity, inclusion, and
community development to
create a sense of belonging
Enable our people to stay
resilient and relevant in a
permanently changing
environment
Contribution to Sustainable Development Goals
• Siemens operate in accordance with their self-developed
and unique approach: the DEGREE framework, guiding
them in the right direction with regards to ESG objectives
• Contributions to Sustainable Development Goals touches
eleven distinct goals
• Focused in measuring the impact that can be achieved
by developing digital solutions to ensure data
transparency
ESG at Siemens
• Siemens drive sustainability by investing in their
portfolio and by applying their new technologies
internally
• Raised targets for 2022 in several areas: including
decarbonization and learning
55%
Emission
reduction
by 2025
25
hours
Digital
learning
per year
Net
Zero
Emissions
by 2030
Ambitions considering ESG
Sustainability is core to Siemens’ business
• Using technology to decrease ecological
footprint, and create sustainable solutions
• ”Smart infrastructure is sustainable
infrastructure”
• Digital transformation is key for shaping a
sustainable future
• Combining the real and digital worlds to tackle
sustainability challenges
17. Siemens Capabilities, Opportunities & Risks
17
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Siemens, 2023), (Siemens, 2023)
Siemens possesses many in-house capabilities across various industries which facilitates market entry or growth in a wide range of strategic areas.
CAPABILITIES OPPORTUNITIES
IoT, ML, and AI
Providing technology to streamline the connection
between physical and digital assets
Digitalization
Further expansion in digitalization may enable
improvement of maintenance and servicing
Energy Management
Optimizing renewable power generation in order to
reduce energy consumption and carbon emission
RISKS
Political Risk
Siemens operates in industries subject to major impact
from government regulations
Competition
To stay competitive Siemens must constantly innovate and
differentiate
Economic Risk
Uncertainties in the economy can heavily impact subsidies
and incentives from the government
Supply Chain
Due to extensive supply chains with many components
and materials from different sources, supply chain issues
may easily affect Siemens
Technology Disruption
Sensitivity to technological disruption due to constant
innovation
COMPANY CORE TECHNOLOGIES
Data Analytics & AI Connectivity & Edge Simulation & Digital
Twins
Software Systems &
Processes
Automation Cybersecurity &
Trust
Sustainable Energy
& Infrastructure
Additive Manufacturing
& Materials
Power Electronics User Experience Integrated Circuits &
Electronics
Technological Experience
Siemens has an extensive history of technological
advancement
Global Presence
Global network ensuring optimal operations and support
for potential issues
Power Electronics
Vast experience in power electronics making electric
power available anywhere, at any time
Digitalization
Expertise in digitalization, enabling optimizing
performance and monitoring operations in various
segments
Control Systems
Well-developed control systems for operations
Service Technology
Strong innovation in technology enables Siemens to lead
the future of windmill servicing
Financial Strength
Strong acquisition power enables seizing opportunities to
adopt innovative technologies
18. Siemens Segment Overview
18
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
28,6%
25,4%
14,2%
31,8%
Digital Industries
Smart Infrastructure
Siemens Healthineers
Mobility
Sources: (Company Filings, Siemens, 2023), (Siemens, 2023), (Siemens Energy, 2023)
Three major segments drive revenue for Siemens, with Industrial Business being its largest segment.
Healthcare Smart Infrastructure Digital Industries Mobility Renewable Energy
Segment 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Industrial Business 52 278 54 118 52 832 58 759 68 277
Siemens Financial Services 825 832 716 697 661
Portfolio Companies 32 178 5 455 5 393 3 058 3 234
Reconciliation to
Consolidated Financial
Statements (2 237) (1 922) (1 801) (249) (195)
In million EUR
Note: Spin-off of Siemens’
Energy division in 2020, caused
the significant discrepancy in
reported revenues between
2018 and 2019, with FY 2019
already having been adjusted
retrospectively by the company.
Business Segment Overview Business Segment Overview
Industrial Business Competitors per Segment
• Three primary segments constitute
Siemens’ operations
• ”Industrial Business” involves Digital
Industries, Smart Infrastructure, Mobility,
and Siemens Healthineers, and is
supported by Siemens Financial Services
• Portfolio Companies comprise
businesses that are separately managed,
therein Siemens Energy
• In 2019, an organizational restructuring
occurred, adjusting the composition of
Siemens’ reportable segments
Industrial Business Revenue by Segment, 2022
19. 19
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Pitchbook, 2023), (Company Filings, Siemens Energy, 2023), (Reuters, 2023)
In million EUR
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
-2 000
-1 500
-1 000
-500
0
500
0
1 000
2020 2021 2022
2018 2019
28 023 28 797 27 457 28 482 28 997
+0,2%
Net Income Revenue
Siemens Energy Overview Siemens Energy Revenue
• Siemens Energy was spun out of Siemens AG through and IPO on the
DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG stock exchange on September 28, 2020
• Operating in Gas and Power, and Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
• Siemens Energy reported a revenue of 28 997 m EUR in 2022, and a
negative net income of -647 m EUR
• Siemens Energy has a CAGR of 0,2% from 2019 to 2022
• Gas and power answer for 2/3 of Siemens Energy revenue, while SGRE
answers for 1/3
• The biggest markets are Europe, CIS, Africa, and the Middle East
Siemens Energy Revenue
Gas and Power
% of total revenue, 2022
31,9%
0,2%
39,8%
28,1%
Transmission
Generation Other
Industrial Applications
Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
% of total revenue, 2022
77,6%
22,4%
Wind Turbines
Operation and Maintenance
66,3%
33,7%
Gas and Power
Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
Siemens Energy by Segment & Region Siemens’ Shareholder Expectations
49,4%
28,3%
22,3%
Europe, CIS, Africa, Middle East
Americas
Asia, Australia
Siemens Energy Segment Ratio,
2022
Siemens Energy Revenue by
Region, 2021
• Siemens’ shareholders have called on the company to
simplify its structure by selling its 35% stake in Siemens
Energy
• Shareholders advocate that Siemens regains status as a
focused technology group, without a conglomerate
discount
• CFO Ralf Thomas has expressed that Siemens remain
committed to reducing its stake in Siemens Energy, but
want to do so in a measured way
Siemens Energy driving the energy transition
Siemens is pressured to exit the energy market as its shareholders have called on the company to simplify its structure by selling its 35% stake
in Siemens Energy – its energy business that got spun off in 2020.
20. Siemens Gamesa as a player in renewable energy
20
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Siemens Energy, 2023), (Fernández, Statista, 2023)
Losses from its struggling wind turbine business are being felt by Siemens Energy, and ultimately by Siemens AG as well.
Onshore Offshore
Operation and Maintenance - Service
Provides customer-specific wind turbine equipment
design, manufacturing, and installation based on
direct drive technology for global offshore markets
Turbine design, engineering, manufacturing, and
installation solutions for global onshore markets
mainly focused on geared technology
Designs, develops, manufactures and installs wind turbines for various wind conditions
Wind Turbines
Provides services for the operation and maintenance of wind farms including a comprehensive and flexible
portfolio for the maintenance and optimization of wind turbines, providing holistic lifetime care
35% 98%
• Siemens has a stake in driving the green energy revolution through its 35%
ownership in Siemens Energy
• Siemens Energy owns 98% of Siemens Gamesa
In million EUR
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
-1 000
-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
0
-200
-100
0
100
200
-300
2020 2021 2022
2018 2019
9 122
10 227
9 483
10 198
9 814
-1,4%
Net Income Revenue
Siemens Gamesa Overview
Siemens Gamesa Operations
Siemens’ stake in renewable energy: Siemens Gamesa
Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy Revenue
• Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy AG has 40 years of experience and offers Onshore Wind
Turbines, Offshore Wind Turbines, and Service
• Focuses on the design, development, manufacturing and installation of products, as well as the
provision of technologically advanced services in renewable energy
• Siemens Gamesa had a CAGR of -1,4% from 2019 to 2022, indicating a declining trend in revenue
21. Siemens Gamesa Market Position
21
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Siemens Energy, 2023), (Reuters, 2023), (Company Filings, Southeastern Wind Coalition, 2020; Envision, 2020; Vestas, 2020; Goldwind, 2020; GE Renewable Energy, 2020; Mingyang Smart Energy, 2020)
Poor financial performance of Siemens Gamesa is caused by cost inflation and uncovered costly flaws in its turbines
27%
26% 47%
0,35
M EUR
43,36
M EUR
13 924
M EUR
7 653
M EUR
14 720
M EUR
3 301
M USD
Position in the market Siemens Gamesa Onshore Revenue by Region, 2021
Competitors by Revenue, 2020
• Competition in wind power differs in two major market segments: onshore
and offshore wind farms
• Siemens Gamesa has a worldwide presence with its biggest market in
APAC accounting for 47% of total onshore revenue
• Primary customers are large utilities and independent power producers as
well as project developers
• GE Renewable Energy and Vestas were the biggest competitors in
renewable energy in 2020
• Siemens Gamesa has a 9,7% market share in the onshore wind turbine
manufacturing market, being the 3rd biggest player, and a 11,4% share in
offshore, being the 5th biggest player
Siemens Gamesa facing major challenges
• Quality issues at Siemens Gamesa’s installed fleet of turbines caused
Siemens Energy’s net loss to more than double to 598 m EUR in Q4
2022
• Poor profit outlook for 2023 due to raised warranty and maintenance
costs
• Problems in a broad mix of components, impacting a variety of
platforms
• Speculations that the negative impact on cash flows will last for up to 8
years
22. 22
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Pitchbook, Siemens, 2023), (Siemens Sustainability Report, 2022), (Company Filings, Siemens Gamesa, 2022), (Siemens, 2023)
Siemens Gamesa destroying value
Substantial Efforts in ESG
• Identifying opportunities for potential expansion into existing or new markets
• Complementing technological portfolio through acquisition of new innovations
Previous Mergers & Acquisitions
1,0
b EUR
563
m EUR
262
m EUR
657
m EUR
606
m EUR
1,8
b EUR
• As Siemens aims to be on the forefront in
terms of ESG contributions, evaluation of
future projects highly take ESG factors
into account
• Current ESG contributions tangent eleven
SDGs, leaving room for further
contributions within these and other goals
7,2% CAGR
CAGR 2019 to 2022
0,2% CAGR
-1,4% CAGR
Smart Infrastructure
SaaS solutions for energy, safety and IT asset
management
Mobility
Developing freight railway management and
maintenance workflow software
Digital Industries
Intelligence platform designed to provide
information about electronic components
Smart Infrastructure
Manufacturer of low voltage products such as
contractors and switches
Digital Industries
Developer of an application-development
platform, enabling improved efficiency
Smart Infrastructure
Onshore and offshore wind turbines and
services
Acquisition Strategy
Smart infrastructure is the future
• As a technology-focused company,
Siemens aims to develop innovative
technologies that improve existing
businesses
• While developing smart cities, Siemens
finds ways to integrate technology into
every aspect of the real world
“The world needs a new way
of thinking about infrastructure
– one that reflects the needs
and attitudes of today’s
society.” - Siemens
Siemens Strategic Direction
Previous acquisitions made by Siemens correspond to its ambitions of expanding its technological portfolio in strategic areas, with Smart
Infrastructure being particularly promising.
23. 23
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Siemens, 2023), (Fortune Business Insights, 2022)
Smart Grids Potential
Smart Cities
Smart
Infrastructure
Renewable
Energy
Smart
Grid
Renewable Energy as a key element
in the Smart Infrastructure market
Siemens position in Smart Infrastructure
• Siemens AG has major operations in
Smart Infrastructure, generating revenue
of 17 353 m EUR in 2022
• Revenue has been growing at a CAGR of
1,9% from 2019 to 2021, but from 2021
to 2022 growth was 15,6%
• The number of orders has been growing
at a CAGR of 1,5% from 2019 to 2021,
but with a growth rate of 29,4% from
2021 to 2022
2022
14 597
2021
2019 2020
17 353
14 323
15 015
+1,4%
+15,6%
Revenue
Siemens Smart Infrastructure Revenue Siemens Smart Infrastructure Orders
2022
15 590
2021
2019 2020
20 798
14 734
16 071
+1,5%
+29,4%
Orders
In million EUR In million EUR
Key Competitors
Siemens share of total market size
91,3
b EUR
Market size
2021
15,0
b EUR
Siemens
revenue 2021
16,4%
Siemens
market share
2021
• The global smart infrastructure market has been broken
down to 1) Smart Grid, 2) Intelligent Buildings,
3) Intelligent Transportation Network, 4) Smart Water
Network, 5) Others
• Smart Grid constituted 37,9% of the entire market in 2020
• Due to current capabilities, Siemens is assumed to have
significant potential to grow in the field of Smart Grid
Siemens’ Market Position in Smart Infrastructure
Access to superior smart data analytics would enable Siemens to further improve its current Smart Infrastructure offerings and fully unlock its
potential in this highly promising market.
“Data is the key to unlocking the full potential of smart infrastructure.”
- Roland Busch, President & CEO, Siemens AG
25. 25
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Sources: (Vestas, 2022), (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023)
Vestas is the largest wind turbine manufacturer in the world and has recently been named the world’s most sustainable company.
Vestas Overview
Conclusion
Vestas Fact Sheet
• Headquarters: Aarhus, Denmark
• Employees: 29 000
• Operations: Worldwide
• Core business segments:
Onshore and offshore power
generation, and O&M service
• Vestas Wind Systems AS is a wind turbine manufacturer for on-
and offshore projects and services
• Revenue of 14 486 m EUR in 2022 with a CAGR of 9,3% from
2018 - 2022
• Operations have expanded across the world over time, with main
activities in and around Europe and the Americas with 5 000 and
4 500 MW installed respectively during 2022
• Aspiring global leader in sustainable energy solutions to ensure
long-term energy security and sustainability for future generations
• With high onshore revenues, Vestas aims to take more market
share in offshore power generation and service & maintenance
Vestas Overview
2012 –
Achieved 50
GW of
installed
capacity
2013 – Launched
new operating
business model.
Founded Offshore
joint venture
2014 –
Launched
profitable
growth
strategy
2015 – Acquired UpWind
Solutions, Inc.
2017 – Introduced the
vision to become
Global Leader in
Sustainable Energy
Solutions
2019 – Launched new
modular platform
2020 – Introduced
an ambitious
sustainability
strategy. Acquired
the offshore business
2021 – Implemented
robust circularity
roadmap
2022 – Named
the most
sustainable
company in the
world
Financial Revenue, 2018 - 2022
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
-2 000
-1 500
-1 000
-500
0
0
1 000
500
2020 2021 2022
2018 2019
10 134
12 147
14 819
15 587
14 486
+9,3%
Net Income Revenue
In million EUR
933
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
0
1 669
2018
10 276
8 465
2019
12 664
100
2 055
2020
10 766
2 337
2 484
2021
10 398
3 155
2022
1 871
Onshore Offshore Service
Revenue by Segment, 2018 - 2022
In million EUR
• Inflation throughout supply chain
is anticipated to negatively impact
wind power installations
• Service revenue is expected to
grow by 5% in 2023 with an EBIT
margin of 22%
Revenue (b EUR) 14,0 –15,5
EBIT margin (%) (2)-3
Total Investments (b EUR) 1
Financial Revenue 2023 Outlook
• Anticipating slowdown in 2023, but
a “new phase of growth” during
2024 for onshore wind solutions
• Heavy investments in organization,
supply chain, and technologies are
expected to help Vestas lead the
offshore market in 2025
Revenue Grow faster than the market
and be market leader
EBIT margin At least 10 percent
ROCE 20 percent over the cycle
Long Term Financial Ambitions
History Highlights
26. Vestas Market Overview
26
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
• Service EBIT margin of 21% in
2022
• Service revenue has grown at a
CAGR of 17,3% since 2018, with
expected continuing growth
• Vestas reached 144 GW under
servicing in 2022 with an average
contract length of 11 years
Sources: (Vestas, 2023), (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023)
With its remarkable global presence, Vestas is susceptive to geopolitical uncertainty and other global complexities.
0,6%
19,6%
55,4%
14,4%
7,1%
3,0%
Americas
2020 2022
6 271
2018
6 403
4 571 4 547
10 269
2020 2022
5 599
2018
7 417 7 637
4 568
6 001
2020 2022
2 344
2018
3 429
1 688
2 074
1 607
4 520 MW -21% YoY
2,275
MW
1,528
MW
325
MW
7 467 MW -13% YoY
1,185
MW
1,002
MW
957
MW
1 341 MW -40% YoY
399
MW
376
MW
179
MW
EMEA Asia Pacific
0
5
10
15
20
2022
2021
13,6 16,0
+17,6%
17,6%
0
10
20
30
2022
2021
26,2 25,2
-3,8%
-3,8%
0
2
4
6
8
10
2022
2021
6,2
8,2
+32,3%
32,3%
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
0
8 818
1 962
2021
7 826
5 111
1 549
2022
4 807
EMEA Americas Asia Pacific
• Deliveries and order
intakes were negatively
impacted by
macroeconomic
conditions, reducing
total revenue by 7%
• Need for risk sharing
with clients in form of
higher prices, due to
inflation, volatility, and
political tension
• Value decrease of order
intakes and deliveries
but, due to new
legislation, Brazil and
U.S. are expected to
drive American demand
1 871 2 055
2020
1 669
3 155
2022
2 484
2018
CAGR +17,3%
Service Revenue
Business Progress for Vestas in 2022 Progress Key Takeaways Market Presence Overview in installed MW, 2022
Geographical Distribution of revenue, 2021-2022
In million EUR
Service Key Takeaways Service Revenue
In million EUR
Order intake reported in MW for the different regions
Deliveries, YoY change, and Key Drivers
Total Order Backlog, in b EUR
27. Vestas highlights economical and
political uncertainties and slow
permitting processes as
challenges for projected growth
Vestas Growth Expectations
Vestas leads the energy transition through the development of wind projects, on- and offshore wind turbine manufacturing and turbine service.
27
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Sources: (Vestas, 2023), (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023)
Conclusion
Onshore Offshore Service Development Key Accelerators
Global leader within onshore
wind solutions, with 164 GW
installed capacity, Vestas aims to
maintain its global leadership
position
Market Expectations 2022 – 2025
(new installations GW)
+ 8-10% CAGR
Continue the expansion of grid
infrastructure and storage to
support the increased wind
energy demand
Re-entered the offshore wind
market in 2020 on the
expectation of high growth and
strategic importance
Market Expectations 2022 – 2025
(new installations GW)
+ 35-40% CAGR
Expected installation levels in
2022 globally were 5GW, and
40GW for 2030. Forecasts are
mainly driven by political
decision-making and an ever-
growing demand
Global leader in servicing wind
turbines with 56 000 wind
turbines (144GW) under service,
10 000 technicians across 74
countries
Market Expectations 2022 – 2025
(new installations GW)
+ 8-10% CAGR
Service demand is expected to
grow at 8% annually until 2030 as
a result of increasing numbers of
installations
Actively trying to expand the
total addressable market through
engagement in project
development programs with their
expertise and knowledge
Market Expectations 2022 – 2025
(Order Intake generated GW)
> 10% CAGR
The 1970’s oil shock accelerated
the need for what we know today
as the wind industry
Covid-19 and Russia / Ukraine war
have accentuated the need to
become energy independent
Climate change anxiety works as an
accelerator to the global wind and
renewables markets
Onshore wind could become the
cheapest energy source
Offshore wind enables countries to
reap energy from higher winds at
sea
Offshore enables for higher GW
generations as wind turbines can
have higher ”tip-heights”
Higher number of new installations
create additional opportunities for
the service segment
2022 2023 2024 2025
12
17
15
14
Onshore Acc. Case
Onshore Main. Case
Onshore Worst. Case
2022 2023 2024 2025
1,26
2,47
0,90
1,76
2022 2023 2024 2025
158
144
174
192
Offshore Acc. Case
Offshore Main. Case
Offshore Worst. Case
Order Intake Acc. Case
Order Intake Main. Case
Order Intake Worst. Case
GW installed
GW installed GW under service
Not applicable to make a graph
due to:
1) Highly political
2) High volatility in orders
intake during the past years
28. Offshore & Service: Competitive Advantage of Vestas
28
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Vestas, 2023), (Gordon, 2023, Energy Monitor), (Wind Europe, 2021), (Nehls, 2022, Composites World), (BladeRobots, 2023)
Vestas is already a few steps ahead in these areas
Preferred supplier agreements of Vestas for offshore turbines
Preferred supplier agreements of Vestas for V236 turbine (offshore)
Americas
3,7 GW
EMEA
3,2 GW
Asia Pacific
1,3 GW
Offshore
• Many synergies exist with the established onshore wind business
• Already preferred supplier agreements signed for delivery of
more than 5 GW for offshore wind projects on three continents
Service
• Vestas already has the largest fleet under service
• Average duration of service contracts: 11 years
• Significant global presence enables Vestas to service wind
turbines in 74 countries
• More than 10 000 specialized technicians employed
Breakthrough in recycling process
• Servicing wind turbines includes recycling
• 85-90% of total wind turbine mass
recyclable, except for turbine blades
• Blades contain epoxy resin (complex
composite, that allows for lighter and
longer blades)
• Epoxy resin very challenging to recycle
à blades end up in landfills
• Vestas recently (Q1 2023) introduced a
new chemical recycling process (CETEC
Project) that can break down epoxy resin
into virgin grade materials
• Accelerates journey to circularity
Largest fleet under service in the world
• Vestas currently services a global portfolio of more than 144 GW, the
largest fleet in the world, aggregating to +55 000 wind turbines across
74 countries
• Established trust with loyal partners to maintain, repair, and optimize
their wind turbine assets
• Large access to data in energy analytics which enables valuable insights
for optimization
• Strong established, specialized workforce (+10 000 technicians globally)
in an industry battling for talent
Scalable innovative solutions for blade maintenance
• In December 2022, Vestas launched a new standalone
business: BladeRobots
• Automated blade maintenance
• Increases operational window of turbine by reducing idle
time due to maintenance
• AI enables fast learning, making scalability easier and faster
• Safety & quality: increased quality and decreased safety risks
for technicians
Vestas remain competitive in the renewable energy market due to several factors, such as innovation, recyclability, and scalability.
29. Sustainability targets and performance expectations
Sustainability is incorporated in everything that Vestas does.
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
0
2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E 2030E
2020
Actual carbon reduction with current CAGR
Carbon reduction needed to maintane goal
Targets and performance into Vestas sustainability
Carbon neutrality by 2030, without
the use of carbon offsets Zero waste turbines by 2040
Safety, inclusiveness, and social
responsibility
Leading the transition into a
renewable world
• Decrease the material
efficiency rate from todays
1,6 to 0,2 in 2030
• Increase the component
utilization rate from 17% in
2022 to 55% by 2030
• Increase the recycling
percentage from 55%
today to +94% by 2030
• Increase the share of
women in leadership
positions from 23% to 30%
by 2030
• Decrease the injury rate
from 3,3 to 0,6 by 2030
• Highly invested in green
R&D
• Committed to produce
10% emission less steel
initiated by WEF
Vestas strategic sustainability initiatives
Achievements
Carbon neutrality Zero waste Diversity, Equity, Inclusion Leading the transition
• Green Service Fleet –
Service vehicles and
offshore equipment running
on renewable energy
• Prioritizing acceleration of
decarbonizing steel used in
the production of turbines
Sources: (Vestas, 2023), (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023)
• Circular blades – Increasing
rate of recycling solutions
and designs
• Internal waste – Increased
material efficiency and
decreased number of
products going to landfills
• Diversity, Equity, Inclusion
and belonging – better
inclusive sense for all people
with different social
identities
• Decreasing lost time and
injury rates
• Electrification – Increase
share of energy demand
met by electric power
generation
• Sustainable policy –
campaign for alignment
between climate and
sustainability commitments
Hydrogen fueled offshore
vessels
Joined the first mover
coalition by WEF
Innovated blade recycling
and maintenance technology
Improved material efficiency
by 20%
Refreshed Human Right
Assessment
100% of energy consumption
sourced by renewables
Encouraged 46 suppliers to
reduce carbon footprint from
own operations
29
30. 30
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Siemens, 2022), (EnergyWatch, 2021), (Frangoul, 2022, CNBC), (Kuykendall, 2023; Blackburne, 2022; S&P Global), (Reglobal, 2022), (MarketWatch, 2023), (WillisTowerWatson, 2021), (Fernández, 2023, Statista), (Froese, 2019, WindPowerEngineering)
CAPABILITIES OPPORTUNITIES
Technology
• Sole competitor in the on- and offshore market using gear
instead of direct drivetrains
• Lighter structures than competitors which enables
increased size of turbines produced, as well as a
decreased complexity of structure foundation
• Innovated recycling technology able to recycle 100% of
wind turbine blades
Service
• Over 10 000 technicians placed over 74 countries
• Vestas Online – Turbine specific self-service
• BladeRobots – standalone blade maintenance company
launched by Vestas in 2022
Data Monitoring
• Utopus Insights – monitoring 55 000 wind turbines (128
GW). Schipfer à advanced scalable industrial AI and IoT
energy analytics platform
• Largest data powerhouse in the renewable energy industry
RISKS
Average R&D Industry Spending
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
2%
3%
1%
5%
6%
4%
Expected R&D spending
Vestas R&D (%) of revenue
Industry average
• European producers face
profitability issues
• Vestas’ R&D expenses were above
the industry average in 2022
• Chinese competitors produce at
lower cost with higher EBIT
margin
• Risk of Chinese manufacturers
entering the European market
where average prices are higher
200
300
400
500
600
700
100
900
800
H1’19 H1’20 H1’21 H1’22
H1’18
China Global average
Turbine prices, (€’000/MW)
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
5%
-30%
15%
10%
H1’19 H1’20 H1’21 H1’22
H1’18
China Global average
Difference in EBIT-margin %
• Leveraging onshore and offshore
technology to become the best-in-
class OEM
• Explore smart grids and
infrastructure industries where the
combination of renewable power
generation and its predictive
analytics could play a vital role in the
future
• Leveraging Utopus Insights’ vast
data knowledge and capabilities in
order to deliver tailored customer
products
Highlighted sections are capabilities
and opportunities associated with
subsidiary:
Vestas Capabilities and Opportunities
Vestas’ superior wind turbines, technical expertise, and especially its burgeoning suite of digital solutions and data points are key to optimize
wind farm performance for its business partners.
31. 31
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Sources: (Utopus Insights, 2023), (GlobeNewsWire, 2022), (Pitchbook, 2023)
Utopus Insights Overview
Big data analytics market forecast, 2022 - 2028
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E
2022 2023E
10,9
12,5
14,3
16,4
18,8
21,5
24,7
+14,6%
In billion USD
Conclusion
• Acquired by Vestas in 2018 at a price of 81 m EUR, Utopus Insights is a
data-driven energy analytics SaaS platform, powering renewables with
data analytics with a vision to be the leading analytics solution provider
for a sustainable, reliable and cost-effective energy future
• Utopus develops solutions that simplify, hence accelerate the integration
of renewable energy sources into the electrical grid
• Operates in 70+ countries and has 55 000+ wind turbines in the
platform, generating 128 GW
• Scipher, an advanced, scalable, industrial AI and IoT energy analytics
platform leverages pre-trained models to provide valuable insights in
wind- and solar power forecasting, and predictive maintenance
• Accelerates time-to-value and decision-making
Market size
Short term power forecasting
Power forecasting
Short term forecasts down to 5-minute intervals
Data connectivity
Direct and secure farm ingestions (all OEM’s)
Data processing
Substantial processing power scalable to other models
Forecast submission
High performance forecast submittal
Data measurement
High resolution and low latency measurement data flow
Data security
Secured API connectivity for forecast submission
Utopus Insights generating value for Vestas
Customer Value generated by Utopus
Utopus Insights Fact Sheet
• Headquarters: Valhalla, US
• Employees: +140
• Operations: US, India, Germany
• Core business segments
develops, services and
maintenance renewable energy
analytics software to owners and
OEMs in the renewable energy
market.
1) Significantly improved predictability of production
2) Increased energy production
3) More efficient operations
4) Better integration with grids
The big data analytics market expects to generate 23,2 b EUR
within 2028, with a CAGR of 14,6%
“This journey will take us to the next level as a market leader in
data- driven solutions, connecting us with our customers,
suppliers, and partners across project lifecycles.”
- Vestas
• Help customers optimize energy output and simplify
operations and maintenance
“We rely on Utopus’ short-term wind forecasting to improve
operational and commercial outcomes for two of our wind farms.
Setting up self-forecasting with Utopus has been a positive
experience and we value the relationship we’ve built and look
forward to the next 5 years working with Utopus”
Transforming the renewable industry through Utopus Insights
Utopus leverages the most advanced energy analytics techniques – that allow for wind and solar asset visualization, proactive wind turbine
performance monitoring, and renewable energy forecasting – which makes energy sources more predictable and reliable for the electric grid.
33. 33
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Company Filings, Siemens, 2023)
• In line with its mission of solving the world’s biggest challenges, Siemens is committed to solving climate change, which drives the need for decarbonization
• One of Siemens’ strategic pillars is Smart Infrastructure, which currently represents Siemens’ third largest revenue stream
• Industry analysis shows that the market for Smart Infrastructure is expected to grow at an annual rate of 23,8% as demand for more flexible and resilient energy
infrastructure increases
• Vestas possesses three main capabilities that would equip Siemens to actualize its ambitions of becoming and remaining one of the biggest players in the Smart
Infrastructure market: 1) smart data analytics, 2) servicing, 3) manufacturing wind turbines
Why critical for Siemens?
• Smart Infrastructure is driven by data and analytics to
combine real and digital worlds across energy systems
Capability in hands of Vestas
• Utopus Insights – a critical business-decision making
tool for renewable asset owners and operators that
gives access to asset visualization, predictive
maintenance, and solar/wind power forecasting
Why critical for Siemens?
• Smart Infrastructure development projects are
predominantly powered by renewables à need for
operations and maintenance service
• Need for talent – servicing wind turbines requires highly
specialized knowledge, which is scarce
Capability in hands of Vestas
• Vestas already has the largest fleet under service
(+55 000 wind turbines across 74 countries)
• More than 10 000 specialized technicians employed
Why critical for Siemens?
• Renewables, among which wind energy, power
Siemens’s smart infrastructure à increasing the need
for wind turbines
Capability in hands of Vestas
• Largest wind turbine manufacturer in the world
• Superior manufacturing technology, and use of
composites that enable lighter and larger structures for
more efficient power generation
1) Digital Solutions: Smart Data Analytics 2) Wind Turbines: Service 3) Wind Turbines: Manufacturing
Strategic Fit Overview
Acquiring Vestas would bring in three major capabilities that would empower Siemens to fully unlock the value to be found in the Smart
Infrastructure market, with Utopus Insights being the most vital component.
34. Industrial Business Revenue by Segment
34
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
What?
• Offerings that support
sustainable transition from
fossil to renewable energy
sources, and transition to
smarter, more sustainable
buildings and communities
R&D activities
• Predominately focused on
sustainable and decarbonizing
offerings for buildings, utilities
and industrial customers
Smart grid market high potential
• Grid market offering growth
above average as demand for
integration of energy from
renewable resources increases
• Need for renewable energy
generation such as solar and
wind
Sources: (Siemens Energy, 2023), (Siemens, 2023), (Company Filings, Siemens, 2023), (Nrel ,2018), (Mordorintelligence ,2023), (IEA ,2022)
Segment 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 CAGR
Digital Industries 15 587 16 088 14 997 16 514 19 517 11,9%
Smart Infrastructure 14 445 14 597 14 323 15 015 17 353 9,1%
Mobility 8 821 8 916 9 052 9 232 9 692 2,6%
Siemens Healthineers 13 425 14 517 14 460 17 998 21 715 12,8%
Total Revenue Industrial
Business 52 278 54 118 52 832 58 759 68 277 10,2%
In million EUR
28,6%
25,4%
14,2%
31,8%
Digital Industries
Smart Infrastructure Healthineers
Mobility
2025E 2026E 2027E
2023E 2024E
19 002
20 807
22 783
24 948
27 318
+9,5%
Forecasted Revenue Base Case
Forecasted Revenue
In million EUR
In percentage of total
“A self-sufficient energy system serving a distinct geographical area”
Segment Revenue Proportion
Smart Infrastructure Overview Case: Microgrid for resilience, flexibility and efficiency
Local
• Producing energy locally on
demand
• Shorter transmission and
distribution distances mitigate
risk of energy efficiency loss
Independent
• Ability to disconnect from
the utility/centralized grid
• Increases the local energy
security
• Central grid in the U.S. is
particularly prone to faults as
distribution and transmission
lines stretch over 5,6 million
miles, resulting in exposure
to natural disaster risk
Intelligent
• The orchestration of multiple
resources by the controller to
meet customers’ energy goals
Microgrid Market Overview
Market size 2021: + 24,7 b EUR
Market size expectations 2030: + 80,5 b EUR
Expected CAGR until 2030: + 14,03%
Smart Infrastructure – Microgrids
The smart data analytics processing power of Utopus Insights is extremely valuable to Siemens as this would enable performance monitoring
and forecasting, which are key components for optimizing the power generation for its Smart infrastructure projects.
Note: Retrospective adjustments have been made to FY18 figures to improve
comparison across years and avoid distortions caused by spin-off.
35. “Our mission is to help the world’s biggest challenges, improve the lives of people all over the world, and leave our planet stronger than we found it.”
Enhanced supply chain proximity
• Global presence of Vestas’s manufacturing hubs
hauls proximity of components to Siemens’ smart
infrastructure projects
• Proximity of components reduces the risk of supply
chain disruptions (delays, lead times, and damage)
• Vestas’ global service and maintenance footprint
brings along a solid foundation to deliver lifelong
value to ensure resilient power generation
• Acquired capabilities of Vestas would enable further
scalability of Siemens’ smart infrastructure projects
Denmark Russia
Mexico
USA
Brazil
Italy
Turkey
India
Portugal
Spain
Germany
China
Manufacturing of power converters
Nacelle assembly
Generator manufacturing
Blades manufacturing
Tower manufacturing
Research and development
EUROPE
• Austria
• Bulgaria
• France
• Germany
• Greece
• Ireland
• Italy
• Netherlands
• Poland
• Portugal
• Romania
• Spain
• Sweden
• Denmark
• Norway
• Finland
• Turkey
• Ukraine
• UK
• Russia
AFRICA
• South Africa
• Egypt
• Morocco
• Senegal
ASIA
• China
• India
• Japan
• Korea
• Philippines
• Singapore
• Taiwan
• Thailand
• Saudi
Arabia
• UAE
• Jordan
AMERICAS
• Canada
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Chile
• Mexico
• U.S.
• Uruguay
OCEANIA
• Australia
• New
Zealand
Vestas Service Points Vestas Global Footprint
35
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Siemens, 2023), (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Giraldez et al., 2018, NREL), (Mordor Intelligence, 2023), (IEA, 2023)
46,5%
28,7%
24,8%
Europe, C.I.S, Africa, Middle East
Americas
Asia, Australia
Revenue by Geography
In percentage of total
Vestas partnership
Siemens global centers
Network & Footprint Expansion
Vestas’ global presence would bring along proximity of components and service points, which allows for enhanced scalability of Siemens’ smart
infrastructure projects.
37. FY2022 Figures not Suitable for Comparables Valuation
Geopolitical uncertainty and high inflation severely impacted financial performance and distorted key input variables for multiples valuation.
2022 Most Prevalent Business
Constraints
Component Cost Inflation
Supply Chain Disruptions
Outdated Market Designs
Description of Relevance
A series of global factors (primarily Covid-19 and Russia / Ukraine war)
significantly affected accessibility and costs of components
Logistical challenges (global container shortages, port congestion and
increased trade barriers) affected operations
Outdated turbine designs with many components create logistical
challenges
• Increase indexation clauses in contract negotiations
• Shortened validity of offers to lower impact of volatility
• Strategic partnership with Maersk to secure customer
deliveries and minimize cost increases
• Modularization and optimization of product design and
production to correspond to logistical standards
• Entire value chain taken into account in latest designs
Risk Management Action Taken
Vestas revenue vs. Vestas EBIT margin
In million EUR
• The supply chain disruptions caused by Covid-19 continued in 2022, and were then
exacerbated by the war in Ukraine
• These rather exceptional events caused EBIT margins to significantly decrease, despite
stable revenue
• EBIT figures for 2022 are severely distorted, and not representative of the true operating
strength of Vestas
• Vestas has taken many concrete steps to mitigate the impact of supply chain disruptions
in the near future à improvement of financial results to be expected in 2023, or latest
2024
Key Takeaways
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
0 0
2018
10 276
0
2019
8 465
100
2020
10 766
2 337
2021
10 398
993
2022
8 465
10 276
12 764 13 103
11 391
12 664
EBIT margin before special items Onshore Offshore
37
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023)
38. Vestas Peer Segment Relevance Analysis
38
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Pitchbook, Vestas; Siemens Gamesa; Titan Wind Energy; Goldwind; Suzlon, Nordex; Mingyang Smart Energy, 2023),
Peer companies were selected based on similarities in terms of industry, size, and growth.
Wind turbine
Manufacturer
Wind turbine
Manufacturer
Wind farm
operator
Wind turbine
Manufacturer
Wind turbine
Manufacturer
Wind turbine
Manufacturer
Wind turbine
Manufacturer
Wind turbine
Manufacturer
29 258
13 120
37 920
3 940
6 460
1 210
3 260
8 510
18 428
6 436
7 832
10 993
12 186
4 206
28 438
28 151
8 027
1 671
10 781
7 233
9 013
10 089
15,5%
3,9%
0,4%
29,7%
21,7%
8,7%
30,4%
59,2%
Target company N/A
Strong resemblance in terms
of size of company
Many similarities in terms of
operations, markets and
customers
Too large differences in size,
revenue and growth rate
Admittedly smaller company,
but strong resemblance
in growth
Too large differences in size
and revenue
Strong resemblance in
operating performance
Growth rate by far exceeds
that of Vestas
Industry Market Cap (m EUR) Employees Revenue 2021 (m EUR) CAGR % 3y Relevance and rationale Retained
Arithmetic mean: 7 724
1 266
443
Note: All numbers were retrieved and/or calculated for Fiscal Year 2021, to give the best representation of the operations of these companies.
39. Peer Group Trading Multiples
39
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Pitchbook, Vestas; Siemens Gamesa; Ørsted; Goldwind; Nordex, 2023)
Vestas’ EV/EBITDA multiple is its peer group median and the difference with Vestas’ EV/EBIT indicates high D&A levels.
Our target company; leading
manufacturer of wind turbines,
with highest capacity under
service in the world
Leading manufacturer of onshore
and offshore wind turbines;
arguably Vestas's most direct
competitor
Manufactures and markets wind
turbines and other wind power
solutions; majority of customers
in China
Focused on renewable assets,
especially offshore wind farms.
Most operations in UK, Germany
and Denmark
Develops, manufactures, services,
and markets wind power systems;
most revenue generates from
European market
21 276
57 779
17 118
16 299
2 189
7,0x
2,0x
0,3x
1,4x
1,2x 15,69x
10,0x
21,1x
33,0x
33,3x 15,4x
21,1x
14,1x
15,8x
Country Company Description Enterprise Value (m EUR) EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
EV/Revenue
57,8x
Note: Ørsted is a wind farm operator, not a wind turbine manufacturer. Nevertheless, we see the relevance in including Ørsted in the peer group analysis because the company operates in a very
similar industry and shows many similarities in terms of operations, markets, and customers.
Arithmetic mean: 2,69 Arithmetic mean: 24,4 Arithmetic mean: 16,6
40. Peer Group Margin Analysis
40
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Pitchbook, Vestas; Siemens Gamesa; Ørsted; Goldwind; Nordex, 2023)
Vestas shows below average gross margins and very narrow EBIT and profit margins. Siemens Gamesa is not profitable.
10,0%
2,6%
22,6%
15,2%
23,2%
1,7%
-5,1%
10,0%
-2,0%
21,4%
6,0%
30,2%
14,7%
1,0%
2,2%
0,9%
-6,1%
6,9%
-4,2%
15,8%
Country Gross Margin EBIT Margin Key Takeaways
Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin
Ørsted shows strongest
operational
performance on all
aspects
Vestas shows below
average margins, but
still profitable
Siemens Gamesa has
worst performance on
nearly all aspects and
shows negative profit
Clear overperformance of Ørsted on all metrics for financial performance, resulted in two major conclusions:
1. Ørsted’s multiples must carry less relative weight in calculation of weighted average EV/EBITDA multiple for final valuation
2. Operating wind farms generate significantly higher margins than manufacturing wind turbines
Arithmetic mean: 14,7% Arithmetic mean: 5,2% Arithmetic mean: 10,8% Arithmetic mean: 2,6%
41. Equity Value based on Comparables
41
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Own Team Analysis, 2023), (Pitchbook, Vestas; Siemens Gamesa; Ørsted; Goldwind; Nordex, 2023)
Based on our comparables valuation analysis, Vestas’ implied share price is 22,11 EUR
Comparables: key profitability ratios and trading multiples Bridging Enterprise Value to Equity Value
Weights decision
• Siemens Gamesa (45%
weight) is Vestas’ most direct
competitor
• Ørsted (5%) different business
model reflects in significantly
different margins and
multiples
Adjustments to EBITDA
Events identified in notes of
statements
• D&A add back increased from 641 m
EUR in previous FY due to inclusion of
offshore business and other
investments related to new
technologies and product variants
• Vestas ceased manufacturing plants in
2021 in Lauchhammer, Germany and
Viveiro, Spain. This brought along 68
m EUR impairment in tangible assets,
61m EUR staff costs and 10 m EUR
other costs
• Valuation through comparables results in
an implied share price of 22,11 EUR
• Comparables analysis is sensitive to the
chosen peer group and can be
manipulated à we allocated 30% weight
to comparables valuation and 70% to
Discounted Cash Flow valuation
43. Vestas Ratio Analysis
43
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Pitchbook, Vestas, 2023), (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
FY22’s ratios accentuate that Vestas is struggling with negative profitability, a crunch on liquidity, accumulating inventory, and high debt levels.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
10,0%
16,1%
10,4%
14,5%
0,8%
Gross margin
Operating margin EBITDA margin
Net margin
• Vestas’s gross margin has
significantly dropped from
16,1% to 0,8% over five years
• Narrowing gross margins are
caused by cost inflation
• Decline in gross margin has
impacted other profitability
margins further down the line
• In 2022, Vestas made a net
loss
• Current ratio and Quick ratio
have been declining, indicating a
liquidity crunch
• Steeper decline in quick ratio can
be explained by sharp increases
in inventory (as % of current
assets) and customers taking
longer to pay
• Increased inventory levels caused
by poor global economic
conditions which translated into
lower order intakes and thus
cash stuck in inventory
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
0,8
1,0
0,7
1,1
0,6
1,2
0,9
0,0
1,1
0,6
1,0
0,6
1,0
0,5
1,2
1,1
0,8
0,7
Current ratio Quick ratio
Profitability Ratios Liquidity Ratios
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
9
10
3
11
2
12
1
0
11,3
10,2
10,5
3,4
0,9
3,0
0,8
2,8
0,8
2,7
0,8
2,3
0,7
9,6
8,3
Inventory turnover
Average collectibles
Asset turnover
• Asset turnover has remained
stable over the last five years
• Inventory turnover rate
decreased from 3,4x to 2,3x, in
2018 and 2022 respectively,
caused by slower sales and
inventory accumulating
• Average collectibles have been
increasing since 2019 (taking
customers longer to pay) thereby
negatively affecting Vestas’
liquidity position
Efficiency Ratios
1
-34
2
-35
3
2022
4
2021
5
2020
6
2019
7
0
2018
3,8
0,0
0,4
0,4 0,0
0,6
3,9
0,0
0,5
4,2
0,1
6,6
0,0
-34,0
4,3
Debt ratio
Debt to EBTIDA
Equity multiplier
• Leverage ratios showcase
extensive accumulations of debt
in 2022 to finance operations
that had been severely impacted
by supply chain disruptions
• From 2021 to 2022:
• Equity multiplier jumped from
4,2x to 6,6x
• Debt ratio from 0,04x to
0,11x
• Debt to EBITDA ratio from
0,52x to -34,0x
Leverage Ratios DuPont Analysis
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
16,4%
0,7%
3,0%
5,7%
-7,8%
4,2%
-51,4
20,9%
4,9%
22,0%
ROA ROE
• ROA and ROE have turned
negative in 2022
• Negative net income caused by
global supply chain disruptions
which translated into cost
inflation of components
• Decreasing gross margins not
able to cover operating
expenses, ultimately leading to
a bottom-line loss for Vestas
• Last net loss was in 2013
44. 44
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
Vestas Revenue Assumption Base Case
Vestas Segment Revenue Mix 2022 - 2027
Revenue for Vestas is expected to grow at a CAGR of
11,9% from 2022 to 2027 and reach 25 439 m EUR
The revenue by Segment is expected to change in the
forecasted period due to the strong increase in offshore
Biggest driver geographically is Asia with a CAGR of 6,4%
followed by Europe, Middle East, and Africa with a CAGR
of 3,3% and Americas with a CAGR of -0,25%
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
0 1 549
2022
8 374
5 069
2 612
2023E
9 006
5 022
3 838
2024E
9 743
5 111
5 268
2025E
10 613
4 900
6 954
2026E
11 651
4 821
8 967
2027E
4 966
7 826
14 486
16 055
17 866
19 977
22 467
25 439
+11,9%
Europe, Middle East and Africa (CAGR = 3,3%)
Americas (CAGR = -0,25%)
Asia Pacific (CAGR = 6,4%)
Vestas Revenue Projections by Geography 2022 - 2027
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
0
3 155
2022
11 334
1 283
3 439
2023E
12 354
1 764
3 748
2024E
13 466
933
4 086
2025E
14 678
3 335
4 454
2026E
15 999
4 586
4 854
2027E
2 425
10 398
14 486
16 056
17 866
19 977
22 466
25 439
+11,9%
Revenue Onshore Revenue Offshore Service
Vestas Revenue Projection by Segment 2022 - 2027
71,8%
6,4%
21,8%
62,9%
18,0%
19,1%
Revenue onshore Revenue offshore Revenue service
In million EUR
In million EUR
In percentage of total
2022 2027
Revenue Projections & Breakdown
Vestas’ revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11,9% from 2022 to 2027, with offshore revenue gradually increasing in size.
45. Vestas Standalone DCF – Base
45
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Own Team Analysis, 2023), (BP Energy Outlook, 2023)
Based on our discounted cash flow model, Vestas’ implied share price is 18,97 EUR.
Vestas Sensitivity Analysis
Based on our implied perpetuity growth rate and calculated WACC, the implied share price is 18,97 EUR. Our sensitivity analysis illustrates
that this implied share price can range from 13,97 EUR – 29,48 EUR in function of changes to WACC and perpetuity growth rate
46. WACC Calculation & Valuation Summary
Based on Vestas’ current capital structure the Weighted Average Cost of Capital is 8,71%.
“Dansih”
The 52-week market low/high indicates the range between the lowest
and the highest price at which Vestas’ shares have traded in the last year:
18,1 EUR - 31,6 EUR
• Our Base case DCF analysis shows that the implied share price
ranges below the current share price and within the 52-week range
(i.e. shares are overvalued)
• Our Bear case DCF shows that the implied share price ranges below
the 52-week range and well below the current share price (i.e. shares
are overvalued)
• Comparable analysis indicates that the implied share price ranges
below the current share price, yet in the 52-week range (i.e. shares are
overvalued)
• In a bull market, our DCF valuation suggests that the implied share
price lies within a narrow range of the actual current share price. (i.e.
shares are fairly valued)
à Based on this graph, the market is currently overvaluing Vestas’s
stock. Only under very favorable future market conditions would the
current share price be justified
Summary
Note: this valuation does NOT take into account
synergies created from an acquisition by Siemens.
46
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Own Team Analysis, 2023), (Yahoo, Vestas, 2023), (WSJ, 2023), (Damodaran, 2023, Stern NYU)
Share Price 03/06/2023: 27,83€
47. DCF Scenario Analysis
47
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
Vestas’ implied share price ranges between 12,80 EUR for our bear case and 25,93 EUR for our bull case scenario.
Vestas Standalone Revenue Projections Vestas Standalone EBIT Projections
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
0
2026E
225E
25 439
2027E
24 097
23 427
2024E
2023E
2022
14 486
15 897
16 056
26 845
17 509
17 866
16 215
18 228
19 368
19 977
20 599
21 538
22 466
+2,0%
+4,1%
+6,4%
+8,8%
+11,4%
Bear Base Bull
In million EUR
593
753 837 937
916
-831
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
-1 500
1 912
2025E
1 432
2026E 2027E
2023E
1 264
2024E
1 669
2022
-1 152
-1 329
-1 063
1 207 1 124
1 467
+37,5%
+103,5%
+94,9%
+99,3%
+104,1%
Bear Base Bull
In million EUR
Bear Case Scenario Assumptions
• Revenue: forecasted based on the expected minimum
growth from the annual report 2022, Onshore &
Service 8%, Offshore 35%
• COGS: 0,5% increase compared to Base Case
• D&A/R&D: maintained as historical maximum of 2,8%
• Capex: decreased to 5,4% as a percentage of sales to
compensate bear market
• Price/share: 12,80 EUR
Base Case Scenario Assumptions
• Revenue: forecasted based on the expected average
growth from the annual report 2022, Onshore &
Service 9%, Offshore 37,5%
• COGS: forecasted on expected components price
development for 2023, then the historical average from
2018-2021 and decrease by 0,5% until its cap of 86,3%
• D&A/R&D: maintained as historical average of 2,2%
• Capex: maintained at historical average of 5,9% as
percentage of sales
• Price/share: 18,97 EUR
Bull Case Scenario Assumptions
• Revenue: forecasted based on the expected maximum
growth from the annual report 2022, Onshore &
Service 10%, Offshore 40%
• COGS: 0,5% decrease compared to Base Case
• D&A/R&D: maintained as historical minimum of 1,7%
• Capex: increase to 6,4% as a percentage of sales to
facilitate growth expansion
• Price/share: 25,93 EUR
48. 48
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Bloomberg, Vestas, 2023), (Company Filings, Vestas, 2023), (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
Enterprise Value to Equity Value Bridge Vestas Historic Stock Price as of (03/03/2023)
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
11 000
12 000
13 000
14 000
15 000
16 000
17 000
18 000
0
20 000
21 000
22 000
23 000
19 000
1 000
2 000
3 000
Cash
2 427
Debt Equity Value
2 378
Enterprise Value
13 443
20 232 20 183
6 789
DCF EV 19 204
Multiples EV 22 632
We decided to assign a
30% weight on our
comparable companies
Comparable Valuation
22,11 EUR
We decided to assign a
70% weight on DCF
DCF Valuation
18,97 EUR
Shares
outstanding
1 010 million
Implied stock
price:
19,91 EUR
Price in EUR
Based on our DCF for the base case scenario,
Vestas is currently overvalued by ~27%, which
makes a possible acquisition less attractive
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Implied
Stock Price
Current
Stock Price
27,3
19,9
-27,1%
Vestas Valuation
By calculating a weighted average of both our comparable and DCF valuations’ end results, Vestas’ implied share price is 19,91 EUR,
suggesting that its shares are currently overvalued by 27%.
In million EUR
Note: Current stock price as of 03/03/2023
50. 50
50
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
Synergies created for Vestas through access to Siemens’ resources Synergies for Siemens through Vestas’ resources
Revenue Generation
• Vestas’ 1) smart data analytics, 2) turbine manufacturing, and
3) servicing capabilities would enable Siemens to fully unlock
the intrinsic potential Siemens already has in the Smart
Infrastructure industry.
• Expected growth of Siemens’ Smart Infrastructure revenue
stream without Vestas’ capabilities: 9,5%
• Expected growth of Siemens’ Smart Infrastructure revenue
stream with Vestas’ capabilities: 15,0%
à NPV (added Smart Infrastructure revenue) = 14 579 m EUR
Revenue Generation
• Increase in revenue by supplying Siemens with wind
turbines to power Smart Infrastructure projects
• Cross sales of service offering for the additional
turbines sold to Siemens
à NPV (revenue synergies) = 3 909 m EUR
COGS Reduction
• Reduced turbine component costs with Siemens as
supplier at favorable terms
• Reduced distribution costs with increased global
production footprint
à NPV (COGS synergies) = 797 m EUR
SG&A Reduction
• Elimination of duplicate or redundant headcount
• Procurement savings as the larger firm can leverage
its increased purchasing power when negotiating with
external suppliers
• Reduced admin expenses by consolidating back-
office functions (e.g., finance, HR, and IT)
à NPV (SG&A synergies) = 1 086 m EUR
Capex Reduction
• Existing production facilities of Siemens can be
leveraged, thereby eliminating the need for high
capital expenditure investments
• Redundant PP&E could be eliminated and reduce
capital spending and depreciation expenses
à NPV (Capex synergies) = 314 m EUR
Wind Segment Synergies for Vestas Smart Infrastructure Synergies for Siemens
Generated Synergies Overview
The transaction would create synergies for both parties, with the NPV of synergies generated for Siemens’ Smart Infrastructure of 14 579 m EUR
being the most noteworthy.
51. 51
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
Synergies from revenue generation Revenue growth of Vestas over next five years (with and without synergies)
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
18 000
20 000
22 000
24 000
26 000
0
256
2023
308
17 886
2024E
369
19 977
2025E
438
22 466
2026E
518
25 439
2027E
16 056
Synergies Revenues
In million EUR
16 405
2027E with Synergies
2027E Standalone
10 398
4 967
4 586
25 958
4 854
4 586
15 999
2022
3 155
933
14 486
25 439
+75,6% +2,0%
Onshore
Offshore
Service
Synergies would boost Vestas’
2027 total revenues with an
additional 2%
Revenues
• Additional revenue from onshore
generated as Vestas would be able to
supply wind turbines to Siemens’
power grids
• Revenue from service would also
increase as the aforementioned
turbines would need to be serviced
(repairs, maintenance, etc.)
NPV
(Revenue generation)
3 909 m EUR
Synergies from onshore revenue Synergies from offshore revenue
356
406
2024E
312
12 354
2027E
15 999
274
2026E
14 678
2023E 2025E
13 466
11 334
240
Synergies
Onshore revenue
112
2024E
56
4 086
3 748
2027E
4 854
34
2026E
4 454
2023E
82
2025E
3 439
16
Synergies
Service Revenue
Quantified Synergies - Revenue
By becoming the main supplier for Siemens’ power grids, revenue from onshore turbine manufacturing and corresponding service agreements
would increase.
In million EUR
In million EUR In million EUR
52. Synergies from COGS reduction
16 150
2023E
182
15 678
2024E
203
17 449
163
229
19 643
2026E
260
22 261
2027E
2025E
Synergies COGS
Synergies from SG&A reduction
997
225
249
277
310
350
1 111
2024E
1 243
2025E
2023E 2026E
1 586
2027E
1 400
Synergies SG&A
Synergies from Capex reduction
883 983
2023E
73
2024E
80
1 101
2025E
66
1 239
2026E
99
1 405
2027E
89
Synergies Capex
Cost of Goods Sold
• Consolidated manufacturing hub and distribution channels of both Siemens and Vestas will lead to
fewer supply chain difficulties
• Improved supply chain hauls lower component costs, fewer delays, shorter lead times, etc.
Selling, General, & Administrative Expenses
• Overlapping functions and redundancies would be eliminated
• Significant cost savings and improved efficiency
Capital Expenditures
• Duplicate capex plans (e.g., building facilities and upgrading technology) would be avoided
• Leveraging existing facilities and infrastructure reduces the need for further capex investments
NPV
(COGS reduction)
797 m EUR
NPV
(SG&A reduction)
1 086 m EUR
NPV
(Capex reduction)
314 m EUR
52
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
Quantified Synergies – COGS, SG&A, Capex
As an integrated company, Vestas would experience cost savings in three main areas (COGS, SG&A and Capex) amounting to a total NPV of
2 197 m EUR.
53. Vestas Synergy DCF - Base
53
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
Based on our implied perpetuity growth rate and calculated WACC, the implied share price is 27,03 EUR. Our sensitivity analysis illustrates
that this implied share price can range from 20,04 EUR - 41,74 EUR in function of changes to WACC and perpetuity growth rate.
Vestas Sensitivity Analysis
Based on our DCF synergy model Vestas implied share price is ~ 27,03 EUR
54. 54
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Own Team Analysis, 2023), (BP Energy Outlook, 2023)
Enterprise Value to Equity Value Bridge Vestas Historic Stock Price as of (03/06/2023)
20 000
25 000
30 000
5 000
10 000
0
15 000
Debt Equity Value
2 427
2 378
Enterprise Value
27 350 27 301
Cash
Shares
outstanding
1 010 million
Implied stock
price:
27,03 EUR Based on our DCF for the base case synergy
scenario, Vestas is currently fairly, which makes
acquiring Vestas at current market price
justifiable
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Implied
Stock Price
Current
Stock Price
27,3 27,0
-1,1%
Vestas Synergy Valuation
According to our synergy DCF valuation, Vestas’ potential share price is valued at 27,03 EUR which closely resembles the current market price.
Price in EUR
In million EUR
This analysis does not
yet take into account:
Synergies generated for
Siemens’ Smart
Infrastructure segment
(see slide 56)
55. Synergy Scenario Analysis
55
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
In any of the three scenarios, synergies are expected to persist, with potential share value ranging from 20,93 EUR (Bear) to 34,49 EUR (Bull).
Vestas Synergy Revenue Projections Vestas Synergy EBIT Projections
In million EUR
Bear Case Scenario Assumptions
• Revenue: expected to grow at a CAGR of 11,18%, a
marginal increase from standalone bear case scenario
• COGS: increased by 0,5% compared to Base Case
Synergy, cap-rate 86,3%
• D&A/R&D: increased by 0,5% compared to Base Case
Synergy
• Capex: decreased by 0,5% compared to Base Case
Synergy
• Price/share: 20,93 EUR
Base Case Scenario Assumptions
• Revenue: expected to grow at a CAGR of 12,37%,
driven by synergies in the offshore and service segment
• COGS: decreased by 1,0% from standalone Base
Case due to economies of scale in the purchase of raw
materials: cap-rate 85,8%
• D&A/R&D: decreased by 0,5% from standalone Base
Case because of redundant positions
• Capex: maintained at 5,4% as a percentage of sales
given possible utilization of facilities
• Price/share: 27,03 EUR
Bull Case Scenario Assumptions
• Revenue: expected to grow at a CAGR of 13,57% a
marginal increase from standalone bull scenario
• COGS: decrease by 0,5% compared to Base Case
Synergy, cap-rate 85,3%
• D&A/R&D: decreased by 0,5% compared to Base
Case Synergy
• Capex: increased by 0,5% compared to Base Case
Synergy
• Price/share: 34,49 EUR
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
0
2027E
2026E
2025E
25 957
24 612
16 312
23 868
2024E
2023E
2022
14 486
16 153
27 368
16 470
17 817
18 175
18 536
19 736
20 346 20 969
21 974
22 904
+2,0%
+4,0%
+6,2%
+8,6%
+11,2%
Bear Base Bull
-947
-672
-432
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
-1 500
2022 2025E
2 634
2 110
2026E 2027E
1 572
2024E
2023E
2 297
-1 152
1 049
1 386
1 691
1 261
1 654
2 018
1 404
1 862
+54,3%
+61,2%
+60,1%
+63,6%
+67,5%
Bear Base Bull
In million EUR
56. Vestas Purchase Price Analysis
56
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Greentechmedia, 2023), (Siemens Energy, 2020), (Siemens, 2020), (Own Team Analysis, 2023)
Taking into account all synergies, the maximum purchasing price is 38 309 m EUR, which represents a maximum takeover premium of 34,9%.
Synergies from revenue generation Acquisition premium reference point
• Vestas’s current market cap is 28 401 m EUR
• Weighted average of DCF and comparable valuations for Vestas as a standalone company
resulted in an equity value of 20 183 m EUR
• Implication: market currently overvalues Vestas by 28,9%
• However, post-acquisition synergies add substantial upside and thereby justify a maximum
purchasing price of 38 309 m EUR
• Siemens AG acquired Iberdrola’s stake in SGRE in 2020
• Purchase price was 20 EUR per share, which corresponded to a 32% takeover
premium over the average SGRE share price of the last 30 days of trading at the
time
• Takeover was argued justified in the belief that better collaboration between
Siemens and SGRE would lead to cost savings synergies of 900 m EUR (NPV)
for SGRE
30 000
35 000
40 000
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
0
Synergies
Siemens
Smart
Infrastructure
Current
Overvalue
Maximum
Purchasing
Price
14 580
Synergies
wind
segment
for Vestas
3 546
Weighted
Equity
Value (DCF
+ Comps)
38 309
8 218
Current
Market
Cap
28 401
20 183
-28.9% +34.9% • Siemens acquiring Vestas
would bring in a present value
of 18 126 m EUR in synergies
to Vestas’s core business
• Vestas, as a holding of
Siemens, would bring a present
value of 14 580 m EUR in
merely Smart Infrastructure
revenue generation synergies
• The difference of 9 908 m EUR
between maximum purchasing
price and current market cap
represents the maximum
takeover premium (34,9%)
that Siemens should pay, with
38 309 m EUR being Siemens’
walk away price
Maximum
Purchasing Price:
38 309 m EUR
1,1 bn EUR
• Acquisition of Vestas by Siemens would
enable the two companies to leverage
each others’ strengths, which are expected
to generate 18 126 m EUR (PV) of
synergies
• Maximum takeover premium to be paid
is 34,9%
• Walk away price is 38 309 m EUR
Key Takeaways
Despite the market overvaluing Vestas' equity by 28,9%, the synergies generated by this acquisition provide Siemens with a broad range to negotiate a takeover up to a 34,9% premium
In million EUR
58. 58
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Reuters, 2023), (Bloomberg, 2023),
Pre-Acquisition At Acquisition Post-Acquisition
Shareholder Structure
• Very diversified base of
shareholders
• BlackRock is largest
shareholder, with 5% of
share capital
Takeover Defense
Mechanisms
• No public disclosure of
any defense mechanisms
Process of Auction
• Discrete approach to
purchase by Siemens
required in order to avoid
bidding wars with other
acquirers
Current Stock Price
• Stock price recently
recovered from a
significant drop, which
may make shareholders
prone to sell
Anti-Trust Regulation
• Vestas and Siemens Gamesa are the two largest wind turbine
manufacturers and operate in virtually the same geographical
markets
• Unfavorable HHI analysis
Foreign Exchange Risk
• Purchase assumed to be in DKK
or EUR
• Low foreign exchange risk, since
DKK and EUR are pegged by
Danish Central Bank
Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy
• Vestas and Siemens Gamesa compete through the exact same
offerings and in the same markets
• High risk of cannibalization if companies held by Siemens
• Shareholders have called on Siemens to divest its 35% stake in
Siemens Energy (and thus SGRE too)
Acquisition of
Losses and Debt
• Vestas in weakened
financial position
• Low risk of financial
distress, given Siemens’
strong ability to service
debt
Potential
Culture Mismatch
• Siemens’ conglomerate
structure and bureaucracy
can prove challenging for
Vestas employees to
adapt
High Risk Areas
• Three major threats to the acquisition of Vestas: anti-trust regulation, shareholder resistance, market
overvaluation
• Acquisition assessed as not feasible
Acquisition Risks Overview
Thorough acquisition feasibility study concludes that three major risk areas threaten a successful acquisition of Vestas: anti-trust regulation,
shareholder resistance, and market overvaluation.
59. Vestas stock price
59
Executive
Summary
Industry
Overview
Company
Analysis
Financial
Analysis
Acquisition
Feasibility
Alternative
Solution
Conclusion
Sources: (Investopedia, 2023), (Yahoo Finance, Vestas, 2023)
Siemens can accumulate a large enough stake in Vestas to
gain control of the company, because:
1) vast diversity built into the shareholder structure
2) 100% of shares are held by external institutional investors or
retail investors
3) lack of defense mechanisms
0
10
20
30
40
1/1/20 7/1/22
7/1/21 1/1/23
1/1/21 7/1/23
7/1/20 1/1/22
Vestas Shareholders and Acquisition Defense Mechanisms Anti-Trust Regulation: Herfindahl-Hirschman Index Other Considerations
Shareholder Structure
• Free float accounts for 100% of outstanding shares, and each
share carries 20 votes
• Very diversified base of shareholders: more than 200 000
shareholders registered by name, from over 100 different
countries
• BlackRock Inc, Wilmington, DE USA is the only shareholder
with a holding of Vestas shares that exceeds 5% of the share
capital
Takeover Defense Mechanisms
• Vestas has not publicly disclosed any takeover defense
mechanisms implemented, beyond what is required by law
No significant bottlenecks are identified for achieving controlling
ownership through acquisition:
The industry for wind turbine manufacturers shows low
market concentration according to HHI
Herfindahl-Hirschman Index
• Pre-acquisition score Onshore: 906,36
• Post-acquisition score Onshore: 1249,74
• Delta: 343,38 à acquisition would increase HHI by
more than 200 and thus might give rise to antitrust
concerns
• Pre-acquisition score Offshore: 1463,97
• Post-acquisition score Onshore: 1741,90
• Delta: 277,93
• HHI < 1 500: Low Concentration
• HHI < 2 500: Moderate Concentration
• HHI > 2 500: High Concentration
Process of Auction
• To avoid a bidding war with other potential
acquirers, Siemens must be discrete about
approaching Vestas for acquisition in order to
avoid this news becoming public prematurely
• Threat Assessment: no rumors seem to be spread
at the time of this writing. Importance of non-
disclosure agreements may not be
underestimated
Current Stock Price
• In case stock price recently experienced
significant drop, shareholders might be reluctant
to sell at current price
• Threat Assessment: stock price recently
recovered from a significant drop, which may
make shareholders prone to sell. Furthermore,
price is not exceptionally high (i.e., reasonable
purchase price)
Vestas and Siemens Gamesa falling under the
ownership of the same holding company would raise
anti-trust concerns
Pre-Acquisition Challenges
The most threatening pre-acquisition challenge is the risk that anti-trust regulation will not allow Siemens Gamesa and Vestas to be owned by
the same holding company.