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Meat‟ing Future Food Demands
Emily Cassidy
Thomas Malthus
1766 – 1834
Population Growth is exponential...
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Billions
160,000
B.C.
100,000
B.C.
10,000
B.C.
7,000
B.C.
6,000
B.C.
5,000
B.C.
4,000
B.C.
3,000
B.C.
2,000
B.C.
1,000
B.C.
1
A.D.
1,000
A.D.
2,000
A.D.
8
9
7
2,150
A.D.
2011 – 7 Billion
1945 – 2.3 Billion
2050 – 9.1 Billion
1492 – 500 MillionFirst Modern Humans
1776 – 1 Billion
Source: TCP
Crop production can‟t keep up...
Malthusian
Global population growth is
slowing...
Malthus underestimated...
Norman Borlaug
Dramatically increased wheat yields
Was Malthus wrong?
Image: NASA
Growing Demands
for Food
7 2
4
Image: NASA
Diets Matter
1
30
10%
million calories per hectareMillion calories per hectare
0 4 821 3 5 76
1 ton maize
food
feed
biofuels
Calories
delivered to
people
Calories available in food system
Calories “lost”
Fraction of crop calories that become food
0 0.5 1
36% of calories used for animal feed
Fraction of crop calories that become food
0 0.5 1
59% of produced calories become food
50% of produced protein become food
33%
of calories go to feed
China
62%
of calories are delivered
China
67%
of calories go to
feed
United States
34%
of calories are
delivered
United States
5.9
8.4
5.4 66.5
13.5
16
10
People fed per hectare
assuming 2,700 kcal per day
Per Capita Meat Consumption, 2009
Poundspercapita
Source: FAO
~10 people per hectare
Possible people fed per hectare
0 2 4 6 8 10
~10 billion people
Actual Food Supply
~6 people per hectare~6 billion people
Actual people fed per hectare
0 2 4 6 8 10
Where do we go from here?
1992 2008
image:s: NASA
Ray et al., 2012
MAIZE - yield trends
Yields increasing
Stagnating
Ray et al., 2012
RICE - yield trends
Yields increasing
Stagnating
1 billion 2 billion
Thomas Malthus
What can do about
this?
Increase Calories Available by 70
%
Million calories per hectare
0 1 2 3 4+
million people
Image: NASA
Diets Matter
Image: NASA
Thanks!

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'Meat'ing future food demands