Professor Graeme Hugo presents the fourth installment of the Science Seminar Series entitled Is water a limiting factor for population growth in South Australia

1. The Environment Institute
Where ideas grow
Professor Graeme Hugo
Is water a limiting factor for population growth in
South Australia?

2. Outline of Presentation
Introduction
Population and Water: A Global Perspective
South Australia’s Contemporary Population
• Growth
• Composition
• Distribution
Population and Water
Population Planning and Policy in South Australia
Conclusion

3. Population and Water: The
Supply/Demand Equation
Supply Demand
Rainfall Population Number
Runoff Population Characteristics
Capture Population Distribution
Storage Use per capita
Recycling Other Uses
Pipelines - Agriculture
Desalination - Industry

4. Global Population: 2009
Source: U.N. 2009, p.1
Population (millions)
Major Area 1950 1975 2009 2050
World 2,529 4,061 6,829 9,150
More developed regions 812 1,047 1,233 1,275
Less developed regions 1,717 3,014 5,596 7,875
Least developed countries 200 357 835 1,672
Other less developed countries 1,517 2,657 4,761 6,202
Africa 227 419 1,010 1,998
Asia 1,403 2,379 4,121 5,231
Europe 547 676 732 691
Latin America and Caribbean 167 323 582 729
Northern America 172 242 348 448
Oceania 13 21 35 51

5. World Population by Region at the Turn of
Three Centuries: 1800, 1900 and 2000
Source: U.N. Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision

6. Projected Population Change by Region,
2005 - 2050
Source: C.Haub, 2005 World Population Data Sheet (2005)

7. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 31

8. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 98

9. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 99

10. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 102

11. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 103

12. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 103

13. Source: World Water Assessment Programme 2009, 128

14. At A Global Level
(World Water Assessment Programme 2009)
• Need to progress toward zero population
growth as soon as possible
• Need to better manage water systems to
achieve development objectives and
sustain development
• Decision making on water seeking
synergies and selecting appropriate
trade offs

15. Contemporary Population Growth Rates (% pa)
Source: ESCAP 2008; Population Reference Bureau 2007 and 2008; ABS 2008
Country/Region Year Rate Per Annum
World 2007-08 1.2
LDCs 2007-08 1.4
MDCs 2007-08 0.5
Europe and the New Independent States 2007-08 0.4
North America 2007-08 0.9
ESCAP Region 2007-08 1.0
Indonesia 2007-08 1.1
Australia 2007-08 1.7
South Australia 2007-08 1.1

16. Australia and South Australia: Rate of
Population Growth per Annum, 1947 to 2008
Source: ABS 1983 and ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0 South Australia
Australia
2.5
2.0
Percent
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
1968
1995
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1998
2001
2004
2007
Year
Note: Data are for Calendar Years

17. Projections of the Population of Australia
and South Australia
Source: ABS Estimated Resident Population data and Projections 2008 and Planning SA
Australia South Australia
ABS 2005 ABS 2008 ABS 2005 ABS 2008 2M in
Series B Series B 2051
2006 Actual 20.7 20.7 1.57 1.57 1.57
2007 Actual 21.0 21.0 1.58 1.58 1.58
2021 Projected 23.9 25.6 1.63 1.81 1.73
2051 Projected 28.0 34.2 1.58 2.16 2.01

18. Population Growth is a
Function of:
• Mortality
• Fertility
• Migration

19. South Australia: Total Population Growth
Showing the Natural Increase and Net
Migration Components, 1947 to 2008
Source: ABS 1997 and Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
Number
Net Migration
15,000
10,000
5,000 Natural Increase
0
1947
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
Year

20. Australia: Expectation of Life at Birth, 1870-2007
Source: Hugo 1986 and ABS Deaths Bulletins
Expectation of Life at Birth
Males Females
1947 66.1 70.6
2007 79.0 83.7

21. Australia: Expectation of Life at Age 50,
1901-1910, 1970-1972 and 2007
Source: ABS
Year Males Females
1901-1910 21.2 23.7
1970-1972 23.0 28.3
2007 31.4 35.2

22. Persons Aged 65 Years and Over with Disabilities
Source: ABS 2005

23. Birth cohort crude prevalence of obesity (BMI ≥ 30) among males
between 1991 and 2008
Source: SA Department of Health
MALES
.
50
Proportion obese (BMI>30)
40
30
20
10
0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Year of survey
1981-1995 (Gen Y) 1965-1980 (Gen X)
1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) 1925-1945 (Silent Gen & WWII)
Pre 1925 (GI Gen)
FEMALES
50
Proportion obese (BMI>30)
40
30
20
10
0
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Year of survey
1981-1995 (Gen Y) 1965-1980 (Gen X)
1946-1964 (Baby Boomers) 1925-1945 (Silent Gen & WWII)
Pre 1925 (GI Gen)
NB: Insufficient numbers for Gen Y (1991-2003) and GI Gen (2005-2008) cohorts resulted in exclusion from analysis.

24. Fertility
Australia: Total Fertility Rate, 1901 to 2007
Source: CBCS Demography and ABS Births Australia, various issues

25. Total Fertility Rate(a): States and Territories
Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends

26. 2007-8 COMPONENTS OF
GROWTH
Births 285,653
Deaths 142,039
Natural Increase 145,617
Net Migration 213,715
Population Increase 1.71 percent

27. Australia: A Country of Immigration
• 24 percent born overseas
• 26 percent Australia-born with an
overseas-born parent(s)
• 809,628 persons temporarily present at
30/6/08
• 149,365 incoming permanent settlers in
2007-08
• 56,575 “onshore” settlers in 2007-08

28. Record Australian Migration 2007-8
• 206,135 permanent migrants
• Net overseas migration: 235,900
• 61 percent of population increase
• 457s – 110,570
• Students – 278,194
• WHM – 154,148
• Total Temporary Residents – 542,902

29. Intended State and Territory Destinations of
Permanent Additions
Source: ABS 2007, Australian Social Trends; DIAC 2008
1996-97 2007-08
% % 000
New South Wales 43.7 31.7 65.2
Victoria 21.7 25.2 52.0
Queensland 15.8 19.3 39.7
South Australia 3.8 6.3 13.0
Western Australia 11.6 14.0 28.8
Other (a) 2.3 2.8 5.8
Australia (b) 100.0 100 205.9
(a) Other includes Tasmania, NT, ACT and Other Territories
(b) Total includes those for w hich state and territory destinations w ere not know n

30. South Australia: Net Overseas Migration, 1979 to 2008
Source: ABS Australian Demographic Statistics, various issues
16,000 12
14,000
10
Net Overseas Migration to
12,000
SA
% of National Intake 8
10,000
Persons
Per cent
8,000 6
6,000
4
4,000
2
2,000
0 0
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Year Ending 30 June

31. Australia: Settler Arrivals by State According to Whether They
are State Specific and Regional Migration Scheme Migrants or
Other Migrants, 2006-07
Source: DIAC Population Flows: Immigration Aspects, various issues; DIAC Immigration Update, various issues

32. Changes in Composition of the
Population
• Ageing
• Shifting ethnic composition
• Socio-economic composition
• Education levels

33. South Australia:
Age-Sex Structure, 2001 and 2006
Source: ABS 2006 Census Time Series Profile
85+
80-84
75-79 Males Females
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
Age Group
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
60,000 40,000 20,000 0 20,000 40,000 60,000
Persons
2001 2006

34. Wittert, 2006

35. South Australia: Age and Sex Distribution of the Population,
2006 and Projected 2031
Source: ABS 2006 Census and ABS 2005 Projections
85+ Females
Males
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
Age Group
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000
Persons
2006 2031

36. Structural Ageing:
South Australia: Change by Age: 2004- 2010, 2004- 2020
Source: ABS Projections 2005, Series B
80
60
2004-2010 (1.57 m)
Percentage Change
2004-2020 (1.62 m)
40
20
0
-20
-40
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85+
Age

37. Structural Ageing:
South Australia: Change by Age: 2006-2021, 2006-2031
Source: ABS Projections 2008, Series B, based on Jackson 2004
140
120 2006-2021 (1.81 m)
Percentage Change
100 2006-2031 (1.95 m)
80
60
40
20
0
-20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85+
Age

38. The Demography of Ageing in
Australia Over the Next 25 Years
• Numbers aged 65+ will double
• Proportion of population aged 65+ will
almost double
• Characteristics of older population will
change
• Where older people live will change

39. The Challenge
• The closing gap between the
numbers of working age and
dependent aged populations.
• Greatly increased numbers in the
older age groups with high levels of
demand in high cost areas of health
and aged care services.

40. Meeting the Challenge
Strategies for Baby Boomers
• Increased Age at Retirement
• Increased saving and preparation for retirement
• Reduced obesity and improved health
Strategies for the Rest of the Working Age Groups
• Increased productivity
• Increased workforce participation
Strategies in the Health and Aged Care Sectors
• Improved efficiency
• Preventative health
• Better models of funding and provision

41. • Part of the strategy will require at least
maintaining the size of the workforce or
slightly increasing it at the same time
as the older population is increasing
rapidly

42. The Population and Water Issue
“ That Australia is a dry continent is an
intrinsic part of our national ethos, and the
present distribution of population is in
large measure related to the supply of
water and the disposal of effluents.
….The availability of water constitutes one
of the major factors in determining the size
and distribution of Australia’s population”
CSIRO 1973 – quoted in National Population Inquiry 1975 p 719-720

43. The Mismatch Between Water and
Population
(Nix 1988, 72)
Far North Southern
Australia Australia
(%) (%)
Population 2 82
Potentially Arable Land 4 65
Annual Mean Surface Run Off 52 27

44. By far the largest volumes of uncommitted water are
in northern Australia and Western Tasmania. In the
most heavily populated regions of south western
and south eastern Australia surface waters are
committed to a high degree and the consequences
of climate change are potentially most serious
Pittock and Nix 1986

45. Australian Rainfall 2006

46. Australia: Rainfall and Population
in 2006
% of
Population Percent of
Australian rainfall 2006 2006 2006 population Growth rate Land Area
Below average 89.6 17,749,462 0.98 38
Average 7.23 1,432,090 0.70 18
Above average 3.17 628,865 -1.57 44

47. How Has Australia Dealt with
the Water/Population Issue?
The twentieth century solution to supplying water to
a rapidly increasing population with increasing per
capita consumption levels was an engineering one
….
“There was a comforting belief that there was always
sufficient supplies available and all that was
required was application of engineering skills to
deliver them” (Troy, 2008,188)

48. In South Australia
(Fenner, 1929, 118)
…water supply, combined with and dependent on rainfall, is the
dominating geographical control of population in the State. All that
has been done in the face of adverse conditions provide an
excellent example of the way in which man (“nature’s insurgent
Son”) has in the first place adapted himself to the geographic
conditions, and in the second place, by the exercise of his ingenuity
and skill, has turned on his environment and shaped it to his will”

49. Growth of Population and Reservoir
Capacity, 1986-2006
Source: ABS and SA Water; Fenner, 1929, p.118. (Hugo, Forthcoming)

50. In my view we are faced with a dilemma.
Firstly in the short to medium term we
need to increase population as part of our
strategy to offset the effects of ageing of
the baby boomers. Secondly water and
other environmental considerations
indicate the need to work toward a stable
population with a balance of working and
non working age groups in the medium to
long term.

52. STATE STRATEGIC PLAN
POPULATION TARGETS (2007)
Target 1.22: Total Population
“Increase South Australia’s population to 2 million by 2050, rather than the projected pop’n
decline. Interim target of 1.64 million by 2014”. Revised to 2 million in 2032.
Target 1.23: Interstate Migration
“Reduce net loss to interstate to zero by 2010 with a positive inflow from 2010-14”
Target 1.24: Overseas Migration
“Match SA’s share of international migrants to Australia with the State’s share of the overall
national pop’n over the next 10 years. Net overseas gain to be 8,500 by 2014”.
Target 1.25: Fertility
“Maintain at TFR of 1.7”
Target 5.9: Regional Populations
“Maintain and develop viable regional population levels for sustainable communities. Keep
share at 18 percent.”

53. South Australia: Population if
Current Rate of Growth Maintained
2005-6 2006-7 2007-8
2006 1,558,230 2007 1,584,513 2008 1,601,821
2011 1,629,624 2011 1,651,464 2011 1,655,756
2021 1,782,375 2021 1,831,481 2021 1,849,002
2031 1,949,444 2030 2,010,215 2029 2,019,716
2034 2,002,554 2031 2,031,122 2031 2,064,803
2041 2,132,173 2041 2,252,523 2041 2,305,789
2050 2,311,228 2050 2,472,346 2050 2,546,635

54. South Australia’s Population Policy
• First in the nation to initiate a population policy
• Strengths
– See population as a key element in economic
policy
– consideration of each demographic process
– Recognition of the short term impact of the ageing
of the baby boom
– basis for community discussion
• Weaknesses
– Targets without any empirical rationale
– needs to more explicitly build in environmental
factors
– Need for more regional community and local level
consideration
– Too Adelaide focussed

56. The 30 Year Plan for Adelaide
– Population Policies
• 560,000 people over 30 years added to
the population
• 258,000 dwellings
• Actively encourage inward interstate
migration and reduce outward migration of
working age people
• Retain “regional migration status” to attract
a higher proportion of skilled migrants

57. The 30 Year Plan
Strengths
• An integrated plan – much needed basis for discussion
• Adopts a functional definition of Adelaide region
Weaknesses
• What is the empirical basis of the 560,000 population
increase over the 30 Years?
• At least implicit that most growth will be of young working
families
• Concern at whether limited high quality agricultural land
will be protected

58. The Need for Dialogue Rather than
Debate
• Need to recognise that there are environmental
constraints on population in Australia and factor them in
to all planning.
• Population planning and environmental planning should
not be totally separate activities
• Need to better understand these constraints and how
population and environment are inter-related.
• Little is known about this complex relationship and there
is a need for an evidence base to inform policy.
• Need for environmental science and population science
to work together in teaching, research and policy.

59. • The objective of population policy should be to
facilitate sustainability.
• The discussion about population and water has
been dominated by interest groups and single
dimensional solutions.
• The need is for a comprehensive consideration
of economic, environmental, social, cultural and
demographic elements of sustainability.
• The policy must be evidence-based and the
result of significant and representative
consultation across the community.

60. • Population policy must not be a substitute
for sound economic, environmental, social
inclusion and good governance policies
but should support them.
• Population, Society, Economy and
Environment are related to each other in
complex ways. Population policy is not a
“sliver bullet” solution.
• There will be trade-offs and compromises
to derive the best outcome for the
community

61. Conclusion
• Population and water issues in (South) Australia
are manageable.
• However immediate action and a conceptual
shift will be necessary.
• The need is for less confrontation and more
collaboration and co-operation to develop
strategies which will work, and are in the
interests of all Australians.
• There must be more and better evidence
produced and wider community involvement in
the discourse.

62. The Environment Institute
Where ideas grow
Next Seminar: 11 September
Professor David Richardson
50 years of invasion ecology – the legacy of Charles Elton