Professor Andrew Lowe poses the question 'How can we help biodiversity adapt to the ravages of climate change?'. Andrew is the director of the Australian Centre of Evolutionary Biology and Biodiversity at the University of Adelaide, to find out more about the Centre and its many research activities visit http://www.adelaide.edu.au/environment/acebb/.
1. Environment Institute
Science Seminar Series 2009
How can we help biodiversity adapt to
the ravages of climate change?
Presented by: Professor Andrew Lowe
Australian Centre for Evolutionary Biology & Biodiversity
www.adelaide.edu.au/environment/acebb
2. Climate change is with us
Increasing temperature
Rainfall redistribution
Rising sea levels
Fire frequency
Expect major impacts on ecosystems
– Phenological and ecosystem integrity
– Migration of species
– Adaptation
– Extinction
3. ecological vs. evolutionary adaptation
fundamental niche
Native realised bioclimatic
range competitor herbivore
niche envelope
Enemy release Adaptational shift
fundamental niche
Invasive
range realised bioclimatic
competitor
niche envelope
6. Things are already starting to change
Oak trees
budding more than 1 month
earlier
Swallows
arriving half a month earlier
7. Namibian Aloe Tree
Significant range shift in last 100 years
1914
2002
Trailing edge (north)
Diversity & Distributions, 2008
8. Namibian Aloe Tree
Significant range shift in last 100 years
1904
2002
Leading edge (south)
Diversity & Distributions, 2008
9. Need to define new conservation
paradigms in face of climate change
Biodiversity corridor planning
Conserve and expand refugial populations
Connect landscape to promote migration
Assisted dispersal or predictive provenancing
Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring
Setup long-term restoration experiments
Monitoring changing ecosystems
10. Biodiversity corridor planning
Conserve and expand refugial populations
Basis of current conservation action,
– no need to change,
– i.e. not going to make things worse
Population size of 1000 promotes adaptation
– Sgro, Lowe, Hoffman, TREE
Other mechanisms to promote adaptation
Locate refugia in landscape (Jolene Scoble)
11. Species Migrations
– historical context
600 sequences of oak
(Brewer et al 2002
Forest Ecol & Man.)
Maximum rate of 500 m/year; 10-20 km in a
generation
12. Phylogeographic analysis of European oak
12 EU labs
2613 populations
12,214 trees
37 countries
Petit et al, 2002a, Forest Ecol & Man. 45 cpDNA types
13. Phylogenetic analysis
reveals distinct lineages
and colonisation routes
Primary refugium
(pollen evidence)
Primary refugium
(no pollen evidence)
Secondary refugium
?
?
?
?
500 km
Petit et al, 2002a, Forest Ecol & Man.
18. Current state
Total area = 780,000 ha
Remnants = 98,000 ha
Approx 12.5% remaining
Dave Turner, DEH
19. A) Deforested area
Biodiversity corridor planning
Landscape permiability
Migration rate and
landscape interaction B) Rainforest
C) Tall eucalypt forest
Pavlacky et al, in press, Molecular Ecology
20. Biodiversity corridor planning
Landscape permiability
Not all fragmented
landscape interactions
negative, for some
species open habitat can
promote geneflow
Depends on scale 2-10
km maybe ok, 500km not
Incorporate actual gene
flow parameters into
landscape modelling
Socioeconomic matrix
Dick, 2001, Proc Roy Soc
22. Biodiversity corridor planning
Assisted dispersal and restoration
Assisted dispersal
– Moving target species
Predictive provenancing
– Using predictions of future distribution
Composite provenancing
23. Current distribution Future distribution
E obliqua
Messmate
stringybark
Dave Turner
24. Biodiversity corridor planning
Assisted dispersal and restoration
Frequency of propagule dispersal
Overiding local is
Recpmmended proportion of stock
best policy sourced from local, intermediate
and long distance sources, following
– Maximises local natural gene flow dispersal kernal
adaptation
Local
– lowers diversity,
reduces future
resilience
Intermediate
Mimic species Long distance
movement and
gene flow Local Intermediate Long distance
Distance from parent plant
Broadhurst et al, 2008, Evolutionary Applications
25. Biodiversity corridor planning
Integrated planning e.g. EmW
Combine reserve systems and community uptake (heritage agreements)
Craig Costion, PhD, University of Adelaide
26. Biodiversity corridor planning
Integrated planning e.g. EmW
Combine reserve systems and community uptake (heritage agreements)
Craig Costion, PhD, University of Adelaide
27. Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring
Need to set up
– Long-term restoration plantings to test outcomes
– Ecosystem condition monitoring
28. Restoration
plantings
•5 terrestrial biodiversity
corridors across biogeographic
zones – linking reserves
•Across SA government
•Including research institutes
and business
Terrestrial reserves and nature links corridors
29. NatureLinks
•Using predictive modelling, for
species and communities, identify
pinch points and permeability of
landscape
•Integrate adaptation (corridors)
and mitigation (carbon
sequestration) in biodiversity
conservation strategy planning and
incentivisation
•Incorporate assisted dispersal and
adaptive planting strategies
•Example - River Murray Forest
Terrestrial reserves and nature links corridors
30. Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring
Restoration plantings
Onground plantings
Species
Best current practise:
past present future
4. Species and
provenance selection
Provenance 5. Evaluate outcomes
past present future with MBIs
future
Gene flow Future recommendations
past present future
Integrate info to derive
new evidence-based
guidelines
31. Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring
Terrestrial Ecosystem Research Network
– NCRIS funding ($500M in research infrastructure)
– TERN – $20M, ecosystem monitoring (remote
sensing, flux and plots), informatics and analysis
Ecosystem monitoring
– Dynamics and responses of Australian ecosystems
relatively poorly understood
– Climate change impacts difficult to predict
– Need long-term monitoring and analysis
32. Monitoring to focus on Australian rangelands in first
phase, to be extended into mesic systems later
Target existing survey & monitoring sites where possible
33. Issues to be addressed by ecosystem monitoring programme
Issues Application Methodology
Biodiversity discovery - species knowledge - taxonomy
- DNA barcoding
Species distribution - modelling distribution - plot based
- presence/absence (e.g. bioclimatic envelope prediction for
present/futures)
Demographic profile - modelling species dynamics, - plot/photo based (age profile)
demographic processes - phylogeography/pop genetics
(connectivity)
Condition assessment - change over time/structure/invasives - plot/photo based –
productivity
- landscape function analysis
Remote sensing ground - improved remote sensing accuracy - plots – ground cover/leaf area
truthing and validation of derived products
(eg LAI)
Soil resources - stocks and flows of soils - C, N, P, K assessment
- soil crusts - role in arid ecosystems - DNA barcoding/taxonomy
Climate/Moisture - water cycling in rangelands - water collection
- soil moisture probe
Climate change - shift in ecotonal boundaries - plots across ecotones
monitoring
Focus on perennial flora and soils to start with, but could extend to fauna (ACRIS)
34. Plot/transect based methods
Species presence/absence
Structure, veg class height
Plot/transect (belt/line/point)
Age/size profile
Recruitment
Invasives, degraded
Landscape function
35. New methods to be developed
Plot/transect based methods, landscape function
DNA barcoding/taxonomy
Photo points and image interpretation
Population genetics: connectivity etc
Remote sensing ground truthing & plot visualisation
Soil nutrient stocks, moisture, cryptic biodiversity
Specific recommendations to pick up changes
36. TERN Partnerships and collaboration
Field survey
ACRIS TERN ecosystem monitoring ABRS
Bush Heritage Earthwatch
Knowledge
Ecological Understanding Biodiversity discovery Taxonomy
Ecosystem Function/condition Species distribution DNA barcoding
Ecosystem change Rare/threatened species Systematics
Accessible information/data
Ecoinformatics & Remote Sensing Atlas of Living Australia
TERN (AVH, OzCAM)
37. Need to define new conservation
paradigms in face of climate change
Biodiversity corridor planning
Conserve and expand refugial populations
Connect landscape to promote migration
Assisted dispersal or predictive provenancing
Long-term experiments and ecosystem monitoring
Setup long-term restoration experiments
Monitoring changing ecosystems
38. Environment Institute
Science Seminar Series 2009
Next Seminar: 22 June – 12pm
Predicting coral reef biodiversity patterns
for conservation a confederacy of
ecological scales
Presented by: Doctor Camille Mellin