1. When
the
Global
Downturn
hits
the
Youth
Bulge:
Challenges
and
Opportuni2es
for
(Female)
Youth
Employment
Ron
Mendoza,
Marina
Kokmarecki
and
Sheila
Murthy
April
27,
2010
New
School
University,
New
York
UNICEF
POLICY
AND
PRACTICE
1
2. Key
Messages
• A
youth
“bulge”
is
imminent
in
71
developing
countries
– most
of
the
“bulge”
is
in
countries
with
historically
high
gender
inequaliVes
– in
2010,
90%
of
world
youth
is
in
developing
countries
•
Current
global
crises
raise
key
challenges
of
inclusive
recovery:
a)
how
to
ensure
investment
in
human
capital
is
protected?
b)
how
to
ensure
advancement
for
female
youth?
• OpportuniVes
for
female
youth
employment
a)
what
human
capital
investments
will
break
intergeneraVonal
poverty?
b)
what
key
competencies/capabiliVes
are
relevant
for
the
future?
2
3. PresentaVon
Outline
• Youth
bulge:
DefiniVon
and
trends
• Youth
and
the
crisis:
Top
20
Sample
• The
Life
cycle
approach:
Analyze
opportuniVes
and
risks
faced
by
female
youth
• Policies:
Immediate
and
Medium-‐Term
3
4. Youth
bulge
The
NaVonal
Lens
– Youth
as
a
percent
of
naVonal
populaVon
– Mostly
lower
middle
income
category
The
InternaVonal
Lens
– Youth
as
a
percent
of
global
youth
populaVon
–
India
and
China
–
40
percent
of
global
youth
4
5. Cross
Plot
of
Youth
(%
NaVonal
PopulaVon)
in
2010
vs.
Percentage
Point
Difference
in
GDP
Growth
Between
2007/8
and
2009/10
5
6. Top
20
Countries
with
the
Largest
Share
of
Youth
in
Total
World
PopulaVon
in
2010
–
Gender
Inequality
and
ContracVon
7. Top
20
Countries
with
the
Largest
Share
of
Youth
in
Total
World
PopulaVon
in
2010-‐
Gender
Inequality
and
ContracVon
8. Life
cycle
approach
• Social
ProtecVon
• Social
PortecVon
(Ethiopia’s
ProducVve
(Ethiopia)
Safety
Net
Program)
• EducaVon
(JPS
Indonesia,
• EducaVon
(Brazil's
Bangladesh
Female
Bolsa
Familia,
Mexico's
Secondary
School
Oportunidades)
12-‐17
Program)
6-‐11
• HIV-‐Aids
(S2S
Training
HIV
infecVon
Program)
Child
Labor
School
Child
Labor
Dropout
School
Dropout
0-‐5
18-‐24
• Healthcare/
Lack
of
Early
• Labor
Policies
immunisaVon
(Brazil's
nutriVon
pregnancy
• Social
Assistance
Bolsa
Familia;
Mexico’s
(NREGA
,
India)
Oportunidades)
Dies
before
Informality
• Protect
social
• NutriVon
(Brazil's
age
5
spending
Bolsa
Familia,
Low
pay
• Health
(Mexico,
Philippines'
Pantawid
Seguro
Popular)
Pamilya
Program)
8
9. Selected References
Conceição, Pedro and Ronald U. Mendoza. 2009. “Anatomy of the Global Food Crisis.” Third World Quarterly 30(6):
1159-1182.
Conceição, Pedro, Namsuk Kim, Ronald U. Mendoza and Yanchun Zhang. 2009. “Human development in crisis:
Insights from the literature, emerging accounts from the field, and the correlates of growth accelerations and
decelerations.” UNICEF-UNDP Working paper. New York.
Doytch, Nadia, Bingjie Hu and Ronald U. Mendoza. 2009. “Social Spending, Fiscal Space and Governance: An
Analysis of Patterns over the Business Cycle.” Working paper. New York.
ILO. 2010. “Global Employment Trends: January 2010.” Geneva: ILO.
Mendoza, Ronald U. 2009. “Aggregate shocks, poor households and children: Transmission channels and policy
responses.” Global Social Policy 9(1):55-78.
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