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Part One:
  Risk
Business Club

Define: Adventure
Business Club
In order to define an activity as an adventure,
there needs to be a considerable amount of risk involved.
Business Club

What would you
be willing to risk?
Business Club
Business Club

             Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix




E – Extreme Risk   H – High Risk   M – Moderate Risk   L – Low Risk
Business Club

    How to Place Risks in the Matrix
In a risk assessment matrix risks are placed on the
matrix based on two criteria:

Likelihood: the probability of a risk


Consequences: the severity of the impact or the
extent of damage caused by the risk.
Business Club
Likelihood of Occurrence
Based on the likelihood of the occurrence of a risk the risks can be classified under one of the
five categories:


Definite: A risk that is almost certain to show-up during project execution. If
you’re looking at percentages a risk that is more than 80% likely to cause
problems will fall under this category.

Likely: Risks that have 60-80% chances of occurrence can be grouped as likely.

Occasional: Risks which have a near 50/50 probability of occurrence.

Seldom: Risks that have a low probability of occurrence but still can not be
ruled out completely.

Unlikely: Rare and exceptional risks which have a less than 10% chance of
occurrence.
Business Club
The consequences of a risk can again be ranked and classified into one of the five
categories, based on how severe the damage can be.

Insignificant: Risks that will cause a near negligible amount of damage to the overall
progress of the project.

Marginal: If a risk will result in some damage, but the extent of damage is not too
significant and is not likely to make much of a difference to the overall progress of the
project.

Moderate: Risks which do not impose a great threat, but yet a sizable damage can be
classified as moderate.

Critical: Risks with significantly large consequences which can lead to a great amount
of loss are classified as critical.

Catastrophic: These are the risks which can make the project completely unproductive
and unfruitful, and must be a top priority during risk management.
Business Club


Hi there handsome,
Wanna play some poker?
Business Club


With you,
Sure thing!
Business Club


How about
$1000 a hand?
Business Club


Yeah I can do that!
Business Club


Are you sure you
Can win?
Business Club


You against me?
No problem!
Business Club


What makes you
so sure?
Business Club


I play all the time.
I got a mean ass
Poker face.
Business Club

A poker face isn’t
going to help you in
this game.
You need to know
the odds of what
you are getting into.
Business Club


I do; I’m smart.
Business Club

Ok Smarty-pants, do
you understand what
you need to beat me if
I have a Flush?
Business Club


Yeah, a full house
Is all.
Business Club

Ok and how will you
get that?
Business Club


Two cards of one
number, three of
another.
Business Club

And what are your odds
Of getting that?
Business Club


Pretty good.
Business Club

Pretty good?
Business Club


That’s what I said
isn’t it?
Business Club

Define “pretty good.”
Business Club


Pretty good is
Pretty good. Better
than normal good.
Business Club
Your definition seems
to be lacking the due
diligence and
comprehensive analysis
required to properly
answer the question.
Business Club


What now?
Business Club
First of all, the odds of
me getting a flush is
less than 1%. Now your
odds of getting a full
house….
Business Club
A full house consists of a 3 of
a kind (triple) and a pair.
There are 4 suits and 13 ranks.
Each triple has 3 different
suits. The number of all
triples of each rank is -
comb (4;3) = 4. The number
of all triples = 4*13 = 52.
Business Club
The number of all pairs of
each rank is comb(4;2) = 6.
The number of all pairs =
6*12 = 72 (12 = the number
all ranks without the rank of
the current triple). In the end
we get the probability of full
house as 52*72 / 2,598,960 =
3,744/2,598,960
Business Club


Yeah you just too
cute for all that
number talk…
Business Club



Go do your homework.
I don’t play with chumps.
Part Two:
Persuasion
Business Club

The saying "No man is an island" is an undeniable
truth.
 We need the support and
 cooperation of other people to
 help us in reaching our goals.
 Successful people know that one
 of the most important abilities to
 possess is the ability to persuade
 and influence others.
 Here are some hot tips to do this
 effectively.
Business Club


          Persuasion tips:
1.Enter Their world
2.Mirror their body language
3.Be Cheerful and nice
4.Be sincere and trustworthy
5.Provide them with compelling evidence
6.Show them what is in it for them
7.Appeal to wants not needs
Business Club


Discussion period:
1. What is the difference between perceived risk and actual risk? Why are they
   both important?
2. What was the biggest risk you ever took? What persuaded you to take it?
3. What was one time you failed to assess the amount of risk of something you
   got yourself into?
4. When has someone persuaded you to do something that you normally would
   not have done? Would you do that again today?
5. When have you persuaded someone else?
6. How do you calculate risk when making big decisions that effect your business
   or career?
7. Have you properly used the art of persuasion when negotiating from a point of
   weakness? When and how?
8. What time of persuasion works better on men than women? Vise versa?

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Risk and persuasion

  • 1.
  • 2. Part One: Risk
  • 4. Business Club In order to define an activity as an adventure, there needs to be a considerable amount of risk involved.
  • 5. Business Club What would you be willing to risk?
  • 7. Business Club Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix E – Extreme Risk H – High Risk M – Moderate Risk L – Low Risk
  • 8. Business Club How to Place Risks in the Matrix In a risk assessment matrix risks are placed on the matrix based on two criteria: Likelihood: the probability of a risk Consequences: the severity of the impact or the extent of damage caused by the risk.
  • 9. Business Club Likelihood of Occurrence Based on the likelihood of the occurrence of a risk the risks can be classified under one of the five categories: Definite: A risk that is almost certain to show-up during project execution. If you’re looking at percentages a risk that is more than 80% likely to cause problems will fall under this category. Likely: Risks that have 60-80% chances of occurrence can be grouped as likely. Occasional: Risks which have a near 50/50 probability of occurrence. Seldom: Risks that have a low probability of occurrence but still can not be ruled out completely. Unlikely: Rare and exceptional risks which have a less than 10% chance of occurrence.
  • 10. Business Club The consequences of a risk can again be ranked and classified into one of the five categories, based on how severe the damage can be. Insignificant: Risks that will cause a near negligible amount of damage to the overall progress of the project. Marginal: If a risk will result in some damage, but the extent of damage is not too significant and is not likely to make much of a difference to the overall progress of the project. Moderate: Risks which do not impose a great threat, but yet a sizable damage can be classified as moderate. Critical: Risks with significantly large consequences which can lead to a great amount of loss are classified as critical. Catastrophic: These are the risks which can make the project completely unproductive and unfruitful, and must be a top priority during risk management.
  • 11. Business Club Hi there handsome, Wanna play some poker?
  • 14. Business Club Yeah I can do that!
  • 15. Business Club Are you sure you Can win?
  • 16. Business Club You against me? No problem!
  • 17. Business Club What makes you so sure?
  • 18. Business Club I play all the time. I got a mean ass Poker face.
  • 19. Business Club A poker face isn’t going to help you in this game. You need to know the odds of what you are getting into.
  • 20. Business Club I do; I’m smart.
  • 21. Business Club Ok Smarty-pants, do you understand what you need to beat me if I have a Flush?
  • 22. Business Club Yeah, a full house Is all.
  • 23. Business Club Ok and how will you get that?
  • 24. Business Club Two cards of one number, three of another.
  • 25. Business Club And what are your odds Of getting that?
  • 28. Business Club That’s what I said isn’t it?
  • 30. Business Club Pretty good is Pretty good. Better than normal good.
  • 31. Business Club Your definition seems to be lacking the due diligence and comprehensive analysis required to properly answer the question.
  • 33. Business Club First of all, the odds of me getting a flush is less than 1%. Now your odds of getting a full house….
  • 34. Business Club A full house consists of a 3 of a kind (triple) and a pair. There are 4 suits and 13 ranks. Each triple has 3 different suits. The number of all triples of each rank is - comb (4;3) = 4. The number of all triples = 4*13 = 52.
  • 35. Business Club The number of all pairs of each rank is comb(4;2) = 6. The number of all pairs = 6*12 = 72 (12 = the number all ranks without the rank of the current triple). In the end we get the probability of full house as 52*72 / 2,598,960 = 3,744/2,598,960
  • 36. Business Club Yeah you just too cute for all that number talk…
  • 37. Business Club Go do your homework. I don’t play with chumps.
  • 39. Business Club The saying "No man is an island" is an undeniable truth. We need the support and cooperation of other people to help us in reaching our goals. Successful people know that one of the most important abilities to possess is the ability to persuade and influence others. Here are some hot tips to do this effectively.
  • 40. Business Club Persuasion tips: 1.Enter Their world 2.Mirror their body language 3.Be Cheerful and nice 4.Be sincere and trustworthy 5.Provide them with compelling evidence 6.Show them what is in it for them 7.Appeal to wants not needs
  • 41. Business Club Discussion period: 1. What is the difference between perceived risk and actual risk? Why are they both important? 2. What was the biggest risk you ever took? What persuaded you to take it? 3. What was one time you failed to assess the amount of risk of something you got yourself into? 4. When has someone persuaded you to do something that you normally would not have done? Would you do that again today? 5. When have you persuaded someone else? 6. How do you calculate risk when making big decisions that effect your business or career? 7. Have you properly used the art of persuasion when negotiating from a point of weakness? When and how? 8. What time of persuasion works better on men than women? Vise versa?