Contenu connexe Similaire à Brexit and Trump: Tourism in Times of Political Disruptions (20) Plus de Euromonitor International (20) Brexit and Trump: Tourism in Times of Political Disruptions1. BREXIT AND TRUMP: TOURISM IN TIMES OF
POLITICAL DISRUPTIONS
10 MARCH 2017
CAROLINE BREMNER, HEAD OF TRAVEL AT EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL
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World economy – more optimistic in Q1 2017 vs Q4 2016
World GDP growth forecast 3.3% in 2017
GLOBAL VIEW
Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2006 2010 2015 2020
MillionTrips
World Arrivals by Region in Trips 2001-2020
Asia Pacific
Australasia
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Middle East and
Africa
North America
Western Europe
Tourism demand yet to peak
GLOBAL VIEW
Global arrivals grown consistently over 20 years, shows very little signs of slowing
Western Europe remains most popular region vs Asia’s ascent
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The UK strikes out alone – economic slowdown expected if no deal
BREXIT IMPACT
Article 50 triggered end March 2017
No Brexit Deal scenario points to slowdown in 2017-2018
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Comparative risks to the UK economy
BREXIT IMPACT
Comparative Threats – Probability
Global crisis 4%
No Brexit 5%
Severe US recession 6%
China hard landing 10%
Eurozone recession 10%
No Deal Brexit 27%
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No Deal Brexit scenario, UK arrivals potential growth of 3.4 million over 2017-2020
30 year low in pound sterling encourages visitation
Questions over capacity as airlines reduce exposure
32,000
34,000
36,000
38,000
40,000
42,000
44,000
46,000
2017 2018 2019 2020
‘000trips
Destination UK Arrivals: Scenarios 2017-2020
Pre-Brexit
Baseline
No-Deal Brexit
UK inbound benefits from the currency effect
BREXIT IMPACT
2020 target:
40 million
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10BREXIT IMPACT
London
Frankfurt
ParisAmsterdam
Dublin
Copenhagen
Glasgow
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000
ShareofGVAfrombusinessservices(%)
Total GVA from business services US$ million 2015
Importance of Business Services in Key Cities 2015
London Frankfurt Paris Amsterdam Dublin Copenhagen Glasgow
Brexit threatens to undermine London’s ease of doing business & start-hub
Competition from Paris, Frankfurt, Berlin, Stockholm, Dublin and Amsterdam
Challenge to UK’s business crown
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UK fourth largest outbound market , after the US, Germany and China, with 82 million departures
Ireland, Cyprus and Spain are highly dependent on the UK so high exposure
UK outbound slump to cause shockwaves
BREXIT IMPACT
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
UK%shareofarrivals
Trips,'000
Destinations Exposure to UK Arrivals 2016
UK arrivals % UK share of total
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The US economy powers on, despite uncertainty
TRUMP EFFECT
Downside risks to US economy
Uncertain trade tariffs and immigration
restrictions
Attempted travel ban sends strong
message about openness
Uplift from stimulus package
Source: Euromonitor International Macro Model
US Real GDP Growth Alternative Scenarios
% %
2016 2017 2018
Euromonitor baseline
Optimistic scenario
Fiscal Stimulus Boom
Pessimistic scenario
Major Downturn
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Note: Forecast Update February 2017
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65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
85,000
90,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
‘000trips
US Inbound Arrivals Scenarios
2015-2021
Baseline (Actuals)
Pre-Trump Forecast
Severe US Recession
Marginal downgrade to US inbound performance
TRUMP EFFECT
US inbound decline in 2016
Fall from major markets – Canada, Mexico,
Brazil & UK
Optimistic outlook but short of 100 mn target
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Global crisis scenario as worst case
South East Asia, China & US resilient
Shift to higher value spend
Global crisis scenario shows potential loss in outbound expenditure
STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS
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Is this the future in a post-reality world?
STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS
Mobile first
AI & automation
Biometrics
DNA profiling
Emotion recognition
Personalisation
Human element
Automated hotel
Source: Henna an Hotel
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WINNERSLOSERS
Joining the dots
Building resilience
Asia for new growth
Digital connectivity
Personalisation for enhanced UX
Wave of populism
Barriers for trade & people
Industry consolidation
Challenges and opportunities
STRATEGIES FOR SUCCESS
23. THANK YOU FOR LISTENING
Caroline Bremner
Head of Travel
@CarolineBremner
caroline.bremner@euromonitor.com
www.euromonitor.com/travel