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China Green Energy 2020
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3. Complete Crystalline Silicon Pilot ProcessFacility: 400,000 square feet “Just recently, China became home to the world's largest private solar research facility … ” Source: All Publically Available Information , Company Website
4. China Today – World’s #1 Country for Investment in Green Energy Investment in China Green Energy nearly Double that of United States Biofuels Other Renewables Green Energy Investment(2009) Efficiency/Low Carbon Solar 34.6 Wind USD billion 18.6 11.2 10.8 10.4 7.4 4.3 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1 0.9 Source: Clean Energy Factbook, “Who is Winning the Clean Energy Race?”, 2009
5. China Today – World’s #1 Energy Consumer China Energy Consumption Overtakes the United States US Energy Consumption (United States and China) China Million Tons of Oil Equivalent Source: Central News Agency
26. China’s Economic Health and Report Card- China Investor Confidence: China Ranks #1 as Most Attractive Investment Destination of Future - Financial & Economic Health: China Balance Sheets - Banks, Enterprises, Households
28. Today: ChinaEnergy Consumption – Very Low on Per Capita Basis China Per Capita Consumption 1/6th that of United States Per Capita Energy Consumption (2009) Million Tons of Oil Equivalent per Person Europe* refers to OECD Countries Source: BP Statistical Review and Economist Intelligence Unit
29. Today: ChinaRemains the Fastest Growing Economy in World China’s Economy: Doubles every 7 Years … Tripled most Recently China GDP (USD trillion) Hosts OLYMPIC games 3x USD (Real Market Rates) Accepted full convertibility for current account transaction Admitted to WTO Eliminated its dual exchange rate China Opens to the World Applied to join GATT 2x 2x Source: IMF
30. The Future: World Bank Projects China as #1 Economy in World by 2020 GDP* PPP-adjusted 2009 GDP* France EU-27 UK 6,4 trillionsde $ 3,6 trillionsde $ US Germany Japan India Japan China $14.2 tr $4.1 tr $3.8 tr $9.1 tr $14.1 tr 2020 GDP* GDP* PPP-adjusted France UK EU-27 China US Germany India Japan $28.8 tr $30.0 tr $13.4 tr $6.8 tr $29.6 tr Source: World Bank
31. 900 800 99 700 90 600 500 53 170 355 400 461 525 239 300 255 200 157 106 100 73 35 0 2005 2010F 2015F 2020F 2025F The Future: Forward Trend in Exploding Middle Class China’s Middle Class: 400 million (2010) … 500 million (2015) Upper Middle Class Middle Class Income Bands for Urban Population Lower Middle Class Urban Household Income (US$ – PPP-Adjusted) 822 822 756 756 Global > US$107,800 684 684 Affluent US$3,800 - 107,800 607 607 531 531 Urban Population (millions) Upper Middle US$21,501 – 53,900 Lower Middle US$13,500 – 21,500 Poor < US$13,500 Sources: Urbanization Rates, Population based on UN, World Urbanization Prospects 2007; MGI Consumer Demand 2008
32. The Future: Forward Trend in Mass Migration into Cities China’s Urban Population: 600 million (2010) … 700 million (2015) China’s Urban Population versus Rural Population 1,600 1.45 billion 1.4 billion 1,400 1.3 billion 1.2 billion 624 1,200 Rural Population (million) 1 billion 705 1,000 Population (million) 782 800 833 822 822 Urban Population (million) 600 684 400 531 381 200 245 Urbanization 57% 23% 49% 40% 31% 0 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025 Source: World Urbanization Prospects 2007
33. The Future: Emergence of 10+ Mega-Cities the Size of Countries Mega-City Profile: 60 Million Population + World-Class Infrastructure China’s Emerging MEGA-CITIES Mega-Cities Mega-Corridors Deserts Heilongjiang Steppe Jilin Liaoning Xinjiang Inner Mongolia Beijing Gansu Tianjin Hebei Mountains Shanxi Ningxia Shandong Qinghai Jiangsu Shaanxi Henan Tibet Anhui Shanghai Hubei Sichuan Zhejiang Chongqing Jiangxi Hunan Fujian Guizhou Yunnan Guangdong Guangxi
34. The Future: China Energy Consumption to Increase by 50% by 2020 Energy Consumption Doubled last Decade … 50% Increase this Decade China Project 2020 Energy Consumption (Million Tons of Oil Equivalent) 49% Increase Million Tons of Oil Equivalent 100% Increase Source: Central News Agency
36. Policy: China Places High Priority on Green Energy Significant Growth Planned for Green Energy Development Green Energy as a Percentage of Total Energy Consumption (2010 – 2050) Percentage Green Energy 40% 32.5% 25% 15% Source: State Council, “New Energy Development Plan for China”, 2009
37. Policy: China Places High Priority on Green Energy Significant Growth Planned for Green Energy Development Targeted Capacity ‘20 Installed Capacity ‘10 Installed and Targeted Capacities (2010, 2020) Gigawatts Source: State Council, “New Energy Industry Development Plan 2011-2020”
38. Cost Structure: China Places High Priority on Green Energy Subsidies in Place to Drive Green Energy Cost of Electricity Subsidy Net Cost RMB / kWh Source: Wind Energy Information Center,
39. Investment: High Investment Levels in Green Energy Significant Investment in Wind and Solar Green Energies New Investment in China Green Energy (2009) USD billion Source: Bloomberg
40. Investment: China Investment in Green Energy #1 in World Major Investment in Green Energy - Wind, Solar, Renewables Biofuels Other Renewables Green Energy Investment(2009) Efficiency/Low Carbon Solar 34.6 Wind USD billion 18.6 11.2 10.8 10.4 7.4 4.3 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1 0.9 Source: Clean Energy Factbook, “Who is Winning The Clean Energy Race?”, 2009
42. Today’s Burning Platform: Markets and Innovation Global Structural’ Cost Reduction … Revenue Growth Innovation Revenue Growth KNOWLEDGE Sales Development MARKETS CONTRACTS, PARTNERSHIPS Marketing IT HR Research Shared Services SHARED SERVICE CENTERS (SSC) F&A Procure Distribution Sourcing RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT Production SALES & MARKETING RESOURCES PRODUCTION / SOURCING Cost Reduction DRIVING Shareholder Value
43. Innovation: Where are Key Nodes for Structuring R&D Platforms? “R” of R&D Seeks Universities … “D” Seeks Markets & Production R&D Centers (# Operations) Research & Development Centers (Number of Operations in Select Cities) > 10 > 50 Deserts Heilongjiang Steppe > 150 Jilin Wage Bands Mega-Cluster Liaoning Xinjiang Mega-Corridors Inner Mongolia 1 Beijing Gansu Tianjin Hebei Mountains Shanxi Ningxia Shandong Qinghai 0.65 - 0.75 Henan Jiangsu Shaanxi 1 Tibet Anhui Shanghai Hubei 0.8 - 0.9 Sichuan 0.7 - 0.8 Zhejiang Chongqing Jiangxi Hunan Fujian Guizhou Yunnan 1 Guangdong Guangxi Source: UNCTAD, WIR
44. Innovation: China Mobilizes all Resources to Develop Talent China Science and Engineering: 1.6 Million Graduates per Year University Natural Sciences Degrees(1985 – 2005) USA China Thousands Sources: National Science Board, Science & Engineering Indicators 2008
45. Energy Market: Where are Designated Provinces for Green Energies? Solar –> West … Wind –> North … Hydro –> S West … Nuclear -> East Green Energy Geographic Focus Legend Insolation > 5,000 MJ/m2/yr Provinces with Nuclear Plants Heilongjiang Designated for Wind Power Jilin Top Provinces for Hydro Liaoning Xinjiang Inner Mongolia Beijing Tianjin Hebei Ningxia Shanxi Shandong Gansu Qinghai Henan Jiangsu Shaanxi Tibet Anhui Shanghai Hubei Sichuan Zhejiang Chongqing Jiangxi Hunan Fujian Guizhou Yunnan Guangdong Guangxi Source: National Development Reform Commission (NRDC); World Nuclear Association; Gao Hua Securities
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47. Complete Crystalline Silicon Pilot ProcessFacility: 400,000 square feet “Just recently, China became home to the world's largest private solar research facility … ” Source: All Publically Available Information , Company Website
48. Solar Energy – Projected Market Growth Projected Photovoltaic Installations in China Cumulative Installed Photovoltaic Power Capacity (2010 – 2020) Megawatts Source: China Generating Equipment Market Analysis
49. Solar Energy – Growth across Technologies Solar Energy Cells - Projection in China CIGS CdTe Solar Energy Cell Market Projections Silicon-based Thin-film Source: GTM Research, trimmed by CEBM
55. Solar Energy – Where is Manufacturing Taking Place? The Locations of Major PV Manufactures China Jinneng Harbin Crona Crystalline-Silicon Solar Cells Solar Photo-electricity China Light Solar Soltech Corporation Thin-Film Solar Cells China Solar Power Harbin Polar PV Yingli Solar Jing Ao Solar Solarfilms BSTRPV Shunfeng Trina Solar ENN Solar Eoplly QS Solar Beijing Suntech Wuxi Shangpin Canadian solar Tianjin Baoding Best Solar Solar Energy S&T Topsola Green Energy Ulica SMIC Suntech Weihai Yantai Langfang Bengbu Nantong Wuxi Changzhou Shanghai Chengdu Suzhou Solar Electric Power Cineng PV Shaoxing Ningbo Jiangxi Sopray Solar Dali Ganneng Huaji Best Solar Fujian Nuvo Solar Energy GS Solar Kunming Topray Solar Jiawei Hengyang Photovoltaic Trony Shenzhen Star Solar Yunnan TianDa Haikou Hainan Tianju Source: SEMI
56. Wind Energy – World’s #1 Producer of Wind Technologies China World’s Largest Manufacturer of Windmills
58. Wind Energy – Where is Manufacturing Taking Place? Wind Turbine Manufactures in China NORDEX Harbin Electric REPower Hafei Industry GOLDWIND Harbin China Creative Wind Energy GE Energy SINOVEL Beijing Liaoning CSR Xinjiang CSIC Baotou SUZLON Tianjin Gamesa Nanjing CASC Xi’an Nantong ACCIONA Chengdu SHANGHAI ELECTRIC Shanghai Hangzhou HeWind Leqing Xiangtan Windey Guangzhou XEMC DEC Zhongshan ENGGA MINGYANG ELECTRIC Source: Status of Wind Energy in China, 2008
59. World’s Largest Dam – Three Gorges Dam Hydro Energy – World’s #1 Producer of Hydro Technologies Three Gorges Dam Total Capacity: 18,200 MW Total Investment: USD31 billion
60. Hydro Energy – Projected Market Growth Water Turbine Generator Installation Capacity Water Turbine Installation Capacity Megawatts Sources: The 2nd International Conference on Hydropower Technology & Equipment, 2009
61. Hydro Energy – Where is Manufacturing Taking Place? Water Turbine Manufacturers Harbin Electric Harbin ALSTOM Jinan Fadian Tianjin Lanzhou NTC Jinan STGC Nanjing Shanghai TOSHIBA Hangzhou Resource Hydro Chengdu Tonglu ZHEFU Ganzhou Fujian LANZHOU ELECTRIC DEC Fujian Nandian TIANBAO HEAVY INDUSTRY GANZHOU UNITE Source: All Publically Available Information , Company Website
63. Senior Executives Select China as Most Attractive in World Investor Confidence in China #1 in World Top 14 Most Attractive Destinations for Future Investment (2009 – 2011) % Percent of Responses Source: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011
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65. China banks cleaned up in 1990s: Non-performing loans in 1997 averaged 40 – 50%; only 6% in 2007.
66. Financial institutions extended approximately USD1.4 tr in new loans in 2009; almost double that of 2008; and USD1.2 tr in 2010, slightly down from 2009.
71. State Owned Enterprise net profits as share of GDP has grown from (-1%) in 1997 to (+4.3%) in 2007.
72. Record corporate profit growth over past 5 years (industrial profits rose 38 ppa); liability ratios declined.
73. Urban incomes have nearly doubled in past 10 years.Source: Deutsche Bank; Standard Chartered; UBS; IMF; Other
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