Dr. Pat Guinan presented "Historical & Recent Climate Trends in Missouri" during the 2011 Marketing Seminars held throughout Missouri. FCS Financial hosted all of the seminars.

1. Historical and Recent Climate Trends
in Missouri & Weather Resources
Pat Guinan
Extension/State Climatologist
FCS Financial Seminars
February 17-25, 2011

2. U.S. National Weather Service
Cooperative Weather Station Network
“The Backbone of the Nation’s Climate Records”

3. NWS Cooperative Network in Missouri
28 Pioneer Stations (still active)

4. What have been the
annual temperature
trends for Missouri?

5. Missouri Annual Average Temperature
(1895-2010)
5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 54.6°F
1921 19311938 1954
1946
1904 1924
1917 Warm Period 1979
1895 Cool Period

6. What have been the
seasonal temperature
trends for Missouri?

7. Missouri Average Winter Temperature
(Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2010*)
*The winter of 2010 is defined as Dec 2009 and Jan, Feb 2010
5 yr. running mean
Long-term average: 32.4°F
1931-32
’99-00
’91-92 ’97-98
’01-02
1904-05 1917-18 1935-36 1977-78 1978-79
Warm Period 2009-10 winter was coldest in 28 years and
Cool Period current 2010-11 winter is even colder!!

8. Missouri Average Spring Temperature
(Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2010)
Long-term average: 54.2°F
1977
1991
5 yr. running mean 1946 2007
1938
1947 1983
1924 1984
1960
Warm Period
Cool Period

9. 2010 WAS HOTTEST SUMMER IN 30 YEARS FOR MISSOURI!!
Missouri Average Summer Temperature
(Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)
1934 1936 Long-term average: 75.6°F
1901 1954
1980 7th hottest
1927 1950 1992 2004
1915 Warm Period
Cool Period

10. 2010 WAS ALSO AN UNCOMFORTABLE SUMMER…
Average Summer Dewpoint Temperature (°F) for
Columbia, MO Jun-Jul-Aug 2010
1993 1995 2010
1967
1975
1976

11. Columbia, MO Average Summer Maximum Temperature
(Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)

12. Columbia, MO Average Summer Minimum Temperature
(Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)
6th warmest

13. Columbia, Missouri
No. of Days When the Temperature Was ≥ 100°F
(1890-2010)
1936 More triple-digit heat in
1936 than in the past 23
years in Columbia!!
1934
1901
1980
1954

14. Missouri Average Autumn Temperature
(Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2010)
5 yr. running mean
1931 Long-term average: 56.5°F
1963
1938 1998
1971
1951 1996
1896
1993
Warm Period
Cool Period 1976

15. What about recent
temperature trends for
Missouri?

16. Missouri Monthly Temperature Departure From Average*
(Jan 2004 – Jan 2011)
4th warmest
1st warmest March Warming up
January in 2010
Easter
Freeze
5th coolest
summer Cool 2-yr period
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

17. What have been the
annual precipitation
trends for Missouri?

18. Missouri Annual Average Precipitation
(1895-2010)
Long-term average: 41.12” 5 yr. running mean
2008
1927 1927-29 total: 1973 1993
1898
148.68 in. (+25.32”)
#1
#8
1963 1980
1976
1901 2008-10 total:
Wet Period 1953
Dry Period 153.30 in. (+29.94”)

19. What have been the
seasonal precipitation
trends for Missouri?

20. Missouri Average Winter Precipitation
(Dec-Jan-Feb, 1895-2010*)
*The winter of 2010 is defined as Dec 2009 and Jan, Feb 2010
Long-term average: 6.58” 5 yr. running mean
1949-50
1915-16 1948-49 1984-85
1936-37
1963-64 1975-76
1969-70
1919-20
1962-63
Wet Period
Dry Period

21. Missouri Average Spring Precipitation
(Mar-Apr-May, 1895-2010)
5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 12.12”
1927 1973
1945
2008
1898
1930 1971
1932 1934 1936
Wet Period
Dry Period

22. Missouri Average Summer Precipitation
(Jun-Jul-Aug, 1895-2010)
5 yr. running mean
Long-term average: 12.19”
1915 1928 1951
1981 1993
1901 1913 1983
1953 Wet Period
1936
Dry Period

23. Missouri Average Autumn Precipitation
(Sep-Oct-Nov, 1895-2010)
5 yr. running mean Long-term average: 10.23”
1941
1993
1926 1984 1986
1904 1950
1897 19531956
Wet Period
Dry Period

24. Have precipitation events
become more frequent in
Missouri?

25. Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 0.01 in Missouri
1895-2009
10 yr. running mean
1951 1973 1993
1945 2008
1936 1953 1963 1988
1976

26. What are trends of
heavy and extreme
precipitation events in
Missouri?

27. Number of Daily Rainfall Events ≥ 1 inch in Missouri
1895-2009
10 yr. running mean
1895-1952: 17,331 events 2008
1927 1953-2009: 17,505 events
1973 19851993
Average: 303 events
2009
Data Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center

28. 10.22” 12.25”
7/10/1922 7/10/1922
6.55” 7.67”
All-time 24-hour
7/7/1898 7/25/2008 5.80”
7/29/1910
precipitation records
(inches)
No. of
6.60”
18.18” Decade Records
9/13/1961
7/20/1965 6.17” 7.34”
9/14/1998 5.87” 6/20/1928
1895-99 4
4/21/1973 6.61” 1900-09 1
5.37”
9/2/1918 8/12/1993 6.21” 1910-19 2
8.82” 8.78”
6.52” 10/18/1905 1920-29 4
9/12/1977 9.00” 8/16/1946
11/16/1928 7.50”
6/29/1957 1930-39 0
12/20/1895 1940-49 1
1950-59 1
9.10” 1960-69 1
10/3/1986 7.90” 1970-79 4
10.65”
7/26/1998 1980-89 2
4/11/1994 6.60”
1/2/1897
1990-99 4
9.10”
8.24” 2000-09 4
7/3/1976
6.27” 3/19/2008
9.21”
11/24/1987 3/19/2008
7.00”
12/16/1895 Half have
11.38” occurred
9/23/2006 since the
6.78” 1970’s
7/4/1976

29. St. Louis, Missouri Annual Precipitation (in.)
(1837-2010) Unofficial: 1837-1869
Official: 1870-2010
1858
1848
1859 10 yr. running mean
2008
1982
1940
1871 1930 1976
Wet Period 1953
Dry Period
Year

30. What about recent
precipitation trends for
Missouri?

31. Missouri Monthly Precipitation Departure From Average*
(Jan 2004 – Jan 2011)
1st Wettest Year
on Record
8th Wettest Year on
Record
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

32. Total Precipitation Departure from Mean in inches
Jan 2008 to Dec 2010
Highest above normal
departures in the
United States!!

33. Departure from Normal Precipitation (in)
Jan 1, 2010 to Dec 31, 2010
Extreme
wetness
to
Extreme
drought

34. Missouri Climate Trends
Summary
•Missouri’s most recent warm annual temperature trend began in
1998; 10 out of the past 13 years have been above normal. The
1930’s ranks as the warmest decade on record for Missouri.
•Seasonally, Missouri winters have experienced the greatest
warming trend (15 out of the past 22 winters (~ 68%) have been
above normal and 4 out of the 5 warmest winters on record have
occurred since 1991).
•Following winter, the biggest seasonal warming trend in Missouri
has been during the spring period (Mar-Apr-May); there have
been only two cooler than normal springs since 1998.
•The median last spring frost date in Missouri has occurred about 2-7
days earlier over the past 30 years compared to the long-term average.

35. Missouri Climate Trends
Summary
•Recent temperature trend signals during the summer and
autumn have been weak. Missouri has not witnessed an
exceptionally hot summer in 30 years.
•The median first fall frost date in Missouri has varied little over the past
30 years compared to the long-term average.
•Beginning in the early 1980’s, and since 1895, an unprecedented
wet period has evolved in Missouri. Since 1981, 20 out of 30
years (~67%) have had above normal precipitation.
•Over the past few decades, all 4 seasons have witnessed more
above normal precipitation years in Missouri; most notably in
winter where 20 out the past 29 winters recorded above normal
precipitation (~69%).

36. Missouri Climate Trends
Summary
•Since 1970, 68% of the years, or 27 out of 40 years, have experienced
an above normal number of days with measurable precipitation events
(≥ 0.01”) in Missouri compared to the long-term average.
•Over the past few decades, Missouri has witnessed an above
normal trend in heavy (≥ 1”) and extreme (≥ 3”) precipitation events
compared to the long-term average.
• 28 pioneer weather stations have been reporting daily precipitation
for 115 years, or since 1895; half of these stations have broken all-
time 24-hour precipitation records since 1973 (over the past 37 years).

37. www.climate.missouri.edu

38. Extension Commercial Agriculture
Automated Weather Station Network
Real-time
(Updates every 5 minutes)
One new station added
in 2010 for a total of 30
in the network.
agebb.missouri.edu/weather/stations/index.htm

40. www.cocorahs.org

41. CoCoRaHS
Missouri
Jan 2011 277/day
Dec 2010 280/day
Nov 2010 297/day
Oct 2010 294/day
Sep 2010 297/day
Aug 2010 290/day www.cocorahs.org

42. September 2, 2010
8.22
6.99 7.59
7.96 10.21
7.93 6.60 8.00 2.01
2.01
4.58 6.93 6.00
5.85 4.52
6.30
MO-CR-40

43. 0.14
1.29
0.75
0.84
December 31, 2010

44. CoCoRaHS Impacts and Application:
The CoCoRaHS network has been operational in Missouri for
almost 5 years and has been a valuable resource. Currently,
nearly 300 observers report daily in Missouri and all 114
counties in the state have at least one observer. Outcomes
associated with having a viable, online real-time network of
precipitation observing in Missouri include:
•Drought Assessment
•Flash Flood Assessment
•Preventive Planting policies
•River Forecast Centers- model application
•Lagoon Management

45. Missouri
Weather
Update

46. Departure From Normal Temperature (°F)
December 1, 2010 to February 12, 2011
Midwestern Regional Climate Center

47. Total Snowfall (inches)
December 1, 2010 to February 14, 2011
COLUMBIA, MO
Snowfall (in.)
Years: 1890-2011
1) 54.9 1978
2) 46.2 1912
3) 44.0 1960
35-45 in.
4) 43.0 2011*
5) 40.8 1906
25-35 in. 6) 40.4 1979
7) 38.1 1974
15-25 in. 8) 38.1 1900
9) 36.6 1905
5-15 in. 10) 35.0 1977

48. Climate
Prediction
Center
6-10 day
temperature
outlook
Issued: Feb 13, 2011
Valid: Feb 19-23, 2011
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

49. Climate
Prediction
Center
6-10 day
precipitation
outlook
Issued: Feb 13, 2011
Valid: Feb 19-23, 2011
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

50. Moderate to Strong La Niña
continues…

51. Typical Winter Weather Anomalies and Atmospheric
Circulation During Moderate to Strong La Niña

52. Temperature
Outlook for
Feb-Mar-Apr
Issued: Jan 20, 2011
Climate Prediction Center

53. Precipitation
Outlook for
Feb-Mar-Apr
Issued: Jan 20, 2011
Climate Prediction Center

54. Weather Resources on the Internet
agebb.missouri.edu/weather/wealinks.htm
River Information Resources for Missouri
agebb.missouri.edu/weather/river.htm