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The Impact of ACP/EU Economic Partnership Agreements on ECOWAS Countries: An Empirical Analysis of the Trade and Budget Effects Matthias Busse HWWA - Hamburg Institute of International Economics

Structure of Presentation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],1. Key Economic Indicators and EU-ECOWAS Trade Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Nigeria are non-LDCs, all other ECOWAS countries are LDCs

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Table 2: Government Revenue Indicators, 2001

Table 3: Trade and Tariff Indicators, 2001

Fig. 1: Structure of ECOWAS Imports, 2001

Fig. 2: Structure of EU-ECOWAS Trade, 2001 EU Exports to ECOWAS (11.1 bill US$) EU Imports from ECOWAS (10.4 US$)

Fig. 3: ECOWAS Imports From the EU, 2001

2. Data and Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object], Relying on suitable partial equilibrium model ,[object Object]

Partial Equilibrium Model: Verdoorn (1960) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

[object Object],Model of Verdoorn, cont’d. Q 1 , Q 2 : imports (EU, non-EU) P 1 , P 2 : import prices (EU, non-EU)  : import demand elasticity  1 ,  2 : import shares (  1 =Q 1 /(Q 1 +Q 2 ) and  1 +  2 =1) Elasticity of substitution of preferred for non-preferred imports  : elasticity of substitution

[object Object],Model of Verdoorn, cont’d. If the tariff (t) is only eliminated on EU imports and supply elasticities are infinite Change in EU imports, due to preferential tariff elimination:

[object Object],Model of Verdoorn, cont’d. Separating (5) into trade creation (TC) and trade diversion (TD):

[object Object],t 1 : Tariff for EU imports t 2 : Tariff for non-EU imports

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Methodology, cont’d. ,[object Object],[object Object]

Table 4: Assumed Values for the Elasticities, 4-digit Level Import Demand Elasticity Elasticity of Substitution Product Low Mid High Low Mid High scenario scenario Agriculture 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Raw materials 0.6 0.9 1.2 2.0 3.5 6.0 Manufacturing 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.8 3.0 4.0 Table 5: Assumed Values for the Elasticities, Total Imports, Gambia Import Demand Elasticity Elasticity of Substitution Product Low Mid High Low Mid High scenario scenario Total Imports 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.5

Most Affected Products, Budget Effects, 2001 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Most Affected Products, Trade Effects, 2001 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

4. Conclusions and Policy Implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Limitations of the Study ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Limitations of the Study, cont’d. Important assumption in the model: perfect competition ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Policy Implications ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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